TABLE OF CONTENTS
Economic Competitiveness
Transportation & Access
Urban Experience
WELCOME MESSAGES / 03STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC REPORT
Jon Scholes
President & CEO Downtown Seattle Association
Just a year ago, downtown Seattle was firing on all cylinders. We
ended the prior decade with record growth, outperforming almost
every major city in the country on development, job and population
growth.
Since the onset of the pandemic, we’ve seen dozens of downtown
businesses permanently close, and our arts, entertainment, tourism
and hospitality sectors devastated. Indeed, downtowns across the
world and the country have a unique and daunting set of challenges
as we emerge from this historic event.
The recovery of our downtown is critical to the economic future of
our entire city; to our robust tax base and quality of life; to our
ability to invest in infrastructure; and to provide opportunity for
the next generation.
The good news is that we are building back from a very strong base.
We have some of the most innovative private sector leaders in the
world, one of the largest downtown residential populations in the
country, and we’re making generational investments in our city.
We’ve seen hard times before. Each time downtown Seattle has faced
challenges — whether it be the Great Fire of 1889, the 1950s-’60s
flight to the suburbs, or the collapse of the retail core in the
early 1990s — we emerged stronger.
A MESSAGE FROM OUR PRESIDENT & CEO
That Seattle spirit is already at work. Many restaurants, retailers
and nonprofits have creatively shifted their business models during
the past year. In the first week of 2021, there were roughly a
dozen announcements of new business openings downtown and
approximately 90 new business announcements in 2020.
As we recover, we’re committed to embracing a new vision for the
center of our city, where everyone feels that they belong and
everyone has an opportunity to participate and share in the
prosperity. The downtowns that rebuild in this way will be more
dynamic, desirable and resilient.
Whether you’re a longtime DSA member, potential investor or
exploring the benefits of DSA membership, we invite you to join us
as we reshape and reengerize this downtown into an even better
version of the one we knew in March 2020.
WELCOME MESSAGES / 04STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC REPORT
The year 2020 was a brutal one of unprecedented and historic
challenges for our city: a global pandemic, a civil rights
reckoning, a climate crisis and an economic crisis that has had a
devastating impact on our workers and our local businesses,
especially downtown.
With the lowest cases and hospitalizations of every major American
city, Seattle showed it could lead the way during the pandemic with
our collective actions. We began adapting early to respond to the
COVID-19 pandemic, establishing a first-in-the-nation small
business support program to provide grants to hundreds of
struggling businesses, free citywide testing, and assistance to our
residents for rent, meals and child care.
The challenges ahead are some of the greatest in our city’s
history, but 2021 also offers hope with a vaccine. Getting millions
of our workers and residents vaccinated will be key to reopening
and economic recovery, and Seattle will lead the nation with
efforts on equitably distributing vaccines.
As we reopen the city, revitalizing and supporting downtown
businesses, nonprofits, workers and residents will be key to our
long-term economic recovery. I am proud to support the efforts of
the Downtown Seattle Association as they work to support their
members, ratepayers and stakeholders through the immense challenges
brought on by COVID-19. I love this city, and I am confident that
we will come back more just and equitable.
Stay healthy,
LETTER FROM THE MAYOR
DOWNTOWN SEATTLE 2020 REPORT CARD / 05STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021
ECONOMIC REPORT
Report Card
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 0%
20%
40%
60%
LIVE Total Number of Jobs 37% increase since 2010 / 2020 estimate:
300,375
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 0%
20%
40%
60%
WORK
0%
-25%
-50%
50%
25%
Brick-and-Mortar Retail Jobs 31% decrease since 2010 / 2020
estimate: 6,069
SHOP Dining, Hotel, Recreation, Arts and Entertainment Jobs 44%
decrease since 2010 / 2020 estimate: 15,282
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
0%
-25%
-50%
50%
25%
PLAY
DOWNTOWN SEATTLE 2020
Sources: data on this page were derived from multiple sources,
including CoStar, Esri, Puget Sound Regional Council, Opportunity
Insights and the Washington State Employment Security Department.
Note that while most
jobs data are for March, we used 2Q estimates for 2020 to better
capture the impacts of COVID-19. Population data are for July of
each year and 2020 population was adjusted downward based on
occupancy data from CoStar.
STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC REPORT NEIGHBORHOOD MAP / 06STATE
OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC REPORT
UPTOWN
Downtown Is a Family of Neighborhoods
Downtown Seattle is a collection of 12 neighborhoods that account
for approximately half of all the economic activity in Seattle.
Downtown is home to some of the densest neighborhoods in the
Pacific Northwest. In fact, more than one in 10 Seattleites calls
downtown home. During the COVID-induced downturn, these areas of
residential density have been crucial to the survival of the
street- level businesses that make downtown a vibrant urban
center.
lanepowell.com | 800.426.5801
From the vibrancy of Pike Place Market to the blue waters of
Elliott Bay, there are so many things to love about downtown
Seattle— including its resilience.
In the face of the pandemic’s harsh impact, DSA continues to strive
to ensure the health of the city’s urban center, and the quality of
life within it. The future of downtown remains bright, and we can’t
wait to be reunited with it once again.
ADVERTISEMENT / 07STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC REPORT
ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS / 08STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC
REPORT
Economic Competitiveness
ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS / 09STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC
REPORT
Seattle has been the envy of the nation, adding jobs and residents
faster than nearly every major city most years since 2010.
Unfortunately, greater Seattle was the first area in the nation to
be impacted by COVID-19. Because of the growth of the tech sector
and the area’s diverse, talented and educated workforce, Seattle
will have advantages over other cities in the years ahead. Still, a
full recovery will likely take two or more years.
Without intervention, the economic recovery will be uneven. Many of
the industries hit hardest are in sectors dependent on foot traffic
and visitors. With most office employees working from home and a
once-thriving visitor industry decimated by the pandemic,
businesses in the downtown core face ongoing challenges. This
especially impacts people in lower-income job categories — those
who
can least afford it. Hotels, retail, restaurants, arts and
entertainment have been particularly affected. Those industries
will likely take years to recover to pre-COVID-19 levels of
activity. Federal aid and downtown Seattle’s residential population
of nearly 90,000 have been key components in supporting small
businesses that reopened. Downtown neighborhoods saw restaurants
and stores spill onto sidewalks and streets over the summer and
innovate with tenting and heat to serve customers through the fall
and winter.
In the section that follows, we look at the characteristics that
have made downtown Seattle the economic powerhouse of the region
and use these to assess the current health of the downtown
economy.
Downtown Seattle Is the Heart of the City’s Economy
Despite being less than 6% of Seattle’s landmass, downtown accounts
for approximately half of the economic activity in Seattle,
including more than half the jobs, about a third of
brick-and-mortar retail sales, more than a third of leisure
spending (including dining) and half the taxes paid by businesses
in the city. Downtown businesses contribute 49% of the gross
regional product within the city of Seattle.
Sources: CoStar, Emsi, Esri, Puget Sound Regional Council, Smith
Travel Research and Visit Seattle. Figures are for 2020 unless
otherwise specified. Leisure spending includes
dining, arts, entertainment and recreation.
Downtown as a Percent of the City’s Total:
Office Space Inventory
ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS / 10STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC
REPORT
Source: Esri Community Analyst. These data are as of July 1, 2020.
Note that Esri’s models reflect COVID-19’s estimated impacts for
economic statistics but not for demographic statistics.
Downtown’s Most Vulnerable Populations
13,895 residents are senior citizens (65+)
8,664 7,853 residents work in the
service industry households include someone
with a disability
residents have no health insurance
6,044
4,157
households receive food stamps/SNAP
of downtown residents who are in the workforce are unemployed
5,128
1,400
4,669
15.4%
The coronavirus pandemic brought into clear focus socioeconomic
disparities across our country, state and city. People of color,
the elderly, low-income individuals, people working in service
industries and those without access to health resources have proven
to be at much higher risk.
The uprising against racial injustice over the summer of 2020
further elevated the inequities that exist and the work that lies
ahead. For downtown to be healthy and vibrant, we must commit to an
inclusive recovery, meaning one that welcomes everyone to the city
and that provides economic opportunities and social support for
marginalized communities. As the heart of city life, downtowns
should represent and welcome residents, employees and visitors of
all incomes, races and ethnicities, genders and ages.
With the rollout of vaccines creating the potential for a further
reopening of our economy, it is important to
Working Toward Inclusive Recovery
ensure that the economic recovery supports the most vulnerable
among us and provides opportunities for more people to share in
future economic prosperity.
As we work to rebuild, we must remove unnecessary barriers to
permitting and housing development so more people who want to live
here can do so. This must be met with investments in infrastructure
that support our growing communities, particularly low- and middle-
income families, with greater investment in public schools,
recreational amenities, and open space. We must fulfill our promise
to complete the Sound Transit 3 package, bring back buses to our
streets, and improve the transit rider experience because we know
that transit is the great equalizer for accessing jobs and housing.
Finally, we must elevate our private sector partners who are boldly
reinventing ground-floor spaces to increase opportunities for small
businesses and entrepreneurs and then support them by providing a
safe and welcoming place to conduct business.
ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS / 11STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC
REPORT
Source: International Downtown Association, 2020 Downtown Vitality
Index
Affordability Metrics Downtown Seattle percent difference from
nationwide downtown average
135% Median Owner-occupied
and Transportation
The diversity index represents the likelihood that two persons
chosen at random from the same area belong to different races or
ethnic groups. It also captures the racial and ethnic diversity of
a geographic area in a single number, zero to 100 (a higher score
represents a more diverse population). From 2010 to 2019, downtown
Seattle’s diversity index increased 6 points from 46 to 52. This is
still 11 points lower than the 2019 average of 63 for downtowns
nationwide.
52 downtown’s current diversity index score
-11 downtown Seattle compared
diversity index 2010–2019
Diversity Index
In the 2020 International Downtown Association Vitality Index,
downtown Seattle scored high marks for its economy and vibrancy, on
par with New York City and San Francisco. Seattle’s center city
also improved on its diversity index score over the past decade.
However, compared to other U.S. downtowns, Seattle scored low on
other measures of inclusion, including residential diversity, the
share of the population that is middle income and home ownership
affordability.
Myrtle Edwards Park, Waterfront
ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS / 12STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC
REPORT
Employment peaked in the first quarter of 2020 with an estimated
348,000 jobs based downtown. After adding 129,000 jobs between 2010
and 2020, downtown lost 45,000 jobs in the second quarter of 2020.
This compares to 28,000 jobs lost during the Great Recession. While
some jobs are coming back, we estimate downtown ended the year with
approximately 20,000 fewer jobs compared to the first
quarter.
Most job losses are expected to be temporary. However, with remote
working becoming more common and the effects of COVID-19 on transit
service, it is uncertain how long it will take before the daytime
worker population returns to previous levels. In a September 2020
DSA survey of businesses and organizations in Seattle, nearly half
of respondents said that at least 25% of their employees had
already returned to their office or worksite and most expect at
least 25% to return by mid-2021. These workers, along with
residents and visitors, support a vibrant, diverse array of urban
amenities such as restaurants, bars, brick-and-mortar retailers and
a lively nightlife scene.
Downtown has increasingly been a place for people to gather, share
ideas and enjoy the benefits of proximity. Amid a pandemic,
however, people are cautious about unnecessary time spent outside
the home. Many workers express a desire to return to the office at
least a few days per week. Downtown’s return to vibrancy is tied to
getting COVID-19 under control and providing safe spaces conducive
to the return of urban life and the downtown workforce.
Jobs Are Key to Downtown’s Continued Success
Source: U.S. Census Bureau (onthemap.ces. census.gov). These
represent 2018 figures.
Who Works Downtown?
51% are male and 49% are female
60% are between the ages of 30 and 54
6% also live downtown
15% identify as Asian (the fastest-growing employee population
downtown by race)
50% travel less than 10 miles to get to work
ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS / 13STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC
REPORT
In 2020, downtown Seattle office rents fell by 6% and vacancy
increased from 5.4% to 8.7%. Much of the new vacancy was due to new
construction as occupancy did not decrease. Rent growth is expected
to be flat through 2021 before beginning to climb again the
following year. The amount of occupied office space downtown is
expected to continue to increase annually but at a much lower rate
than was seen over the past few years. Including new construction,
vacancy is expected to top out at 11.5% in the third quarter of
2021 and remain above 10% until 2024.
COVID-19 Impacts Create Uncertainty for Downtown’s Office
Market
Despite the pandemic, investors continue to show confidence in the
Seattle market. Lab space is in high demand. In fact, the vacancy
rate for Seattle lab space at the end of 2020 was less than 1%,
according to CBRE. The area also saw some of the highest-priced
office deals in the nation since the start of the pandemic,
including the $652 million sale of 2+U (Qualtrics Tower). This was
the highest price for a single-asset property in the Puget Sound
region and the seventh-largest in the U.S.
Source: CoStar
Denny Triangle
ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS / 14STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC
REPORT
Change in Occupied Square Feet of Office Space Among peer
downtowns, year-over-year change, 2020
Denver -2.7%
Portland -2.8%
Salt Lake City -2.5%
Peer-city Comparisons Occupied office space downtown grew only
slightly in 2020, yet our center city experienced one of the best
performances among peer downtowns. San Francisco fared the worst,
with downtown occupancy decreasing 7.2%.
Source: CoStar. The cities were selected based on similarities to
Seattle that make them competitive markets (for example, strong
growth in tech talent). For consistency, CoStar’s “multifamily”
downtown boundary was used for each city except for Seattle, where
DSA’s boundary was used. Note that these are preliminary
numbers.
Office Vacancy Downtown Seattle (year-end data)
Office Rent Downtown Seattle (year-end data)
$0
$20
$10
$30
$40
$50
0%
5%
10%
15%
*2021-2025 show forecast data
Change in Occupied Office Space Net change in occupied square feet
in downtown Seattle each year
0.9 M
Office Space Square Footage by Status and Completion Year
63,000
2016
2019
Predevelopment
The numbers next to each bar indicate the total square feet of
office space completed or scheduled for completion each year.
Please note that those in predevelopment have uncertain timelines
and do not yet have land-use or building permits.
Completed
Demolition, Shoring and Excavation
With an inventory of 79 million square feet of office space,
downtown supports a dynamic economy. This sector has experienced a
net gain of 17 million square feet since 2010. This has expanded
the downtown office inventory by 27% over that period.
Currently, there are 3.1 million square feet of office space under
construction downtown. This is about on par with the average over
the past 10 years. Despite this new supply, downtown occupancy rose
from 86% in 2010 to 91% by the end of 2020.
In addition to space under construction, there is more than a
half-million square feet in demolition, shoring and excavation
phases in preparation for future development. An additional 7.7
million square feet are in earlier stages of development (“land-use
issued” and “predevelopment” phases) and do not yet have building
permits.
Source: DSA 2020 Year-end Development Guide
Downtown Office Construction
ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS / 16STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC
REPORT
The past decade was one of incredible growth in the residential
sector. Approximately 45% of apartment units downtown were built
since 2010 and yet vacancy was at a record low of 5% by the end of
2019. High demand drove rent increases faster in Seattle than in
most U.S. cities, though this was tempered somewhat by
unprecedented residential construction bringing new supply to the
market.
In downtown, there are some signs of residential demand slowing
down. For the first time since at least 2000*,
A Hot Housing Market Cools
the center city had fewer occupied apartments at year-end than at
the start. Downtown lost 1,594 apartment households in 2020, with
vacancy rising to 10.4%. Suburban markets saw a modest increase in
occupancy and a slight increase in vacancy, mostly driven by new
construction.
The condo market downtown was also not immune to a downturn.
Through the summer of 2020, downtown experienced increases in the
number of listings and decreases in closed sales and prices while
other areas of the Puget Sound saw
Annual Change in Occupied Apartment Units Downtown Seattle
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Sources: Costar, Northwest Multiple Listing Service
0
2,000
-2,000
4,000
6,000
decreased supply and increased demand and prices.
One outcome of lower rents and condo prices downtown is that they
may become more affordable and therefore accessible to a more
diverse spectrum of individuals. Younger artists, middle-income
families and working-class households may find downtown more
affordable in the wake of geographic shifts caused by
COVID-19.
*2000 is as far back as this data set goes.
Actual Forecast
ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS / 17STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC
REPORT
The numbers next to each bar indicate the total units completed or
scheduled for completion that year. Please note that those in
predevelopment have uncertain timelines and do not yet have
land-use or building permits.
Residential Units by Current Status and Delivery Year
3,292
2016
2019
Demolition, Shoring and Excavation
Percentage of Units Vacant at the End of Each Year Downtown
Seattle
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Source: CoStarActual Forecast
ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS / 18STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC
REPORT
Peer-city Comparisons In 2020, downtown Seattle’s apartment rents
decreased more than all of our peer downtowns except for Boston.
All but Atlanta and Vancouver, British Columbia saw decreasing
rents.
In terms of the change in the number of occupied units, roughly
half of the downtowns saw decreases and half increases. The number
of occupied units in downtown Seattle decreased 3.1%. Downtown San
Francisco fared the worst, with a 5.4% decrease in occupied
units.
Source: CoStar. The cities were selected based on similarities to
Seattle that make them competitive markets (for example, strong
growth in tech talent). For consistency, CoStar’s “multifamily”
downtown boundary was used for each city except for Seattle, where
DSA’s boundary was used. Note that these are preliminary
numbers.
Year-over-year Change in Apartment Rents 2019-2020 Percentage
change in rent among peer downtowns
-9.4%
-2.1%
Atlanta
2.4%
4.6%
ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS / 19STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC
REPORT
With an incredible natural backdrop, outstanding visitor amenities
and an array of things to see and do, Seattle has long been the
Northwest’s leading destination for tourists and conventioneers.
The loss of this business due to COVID-19 has had a devastating
economic impact. Before the pandemic, 15 million people visited
Pike Place Market each year and 12 million visited the Seattle
Center, where more than 5,000 events were held annually. Locals,
along with visitors, have enjoyed downtown’s unmatched
entertainment options, including art galleries, performances,
museums, professional sporting events and myriad dining
options.
Hotels Downtown is the center of the visitor industry for Seattle,
with 37% of the Airbnb listings in the city, 78% of the hotel rooms
and more than 80% of the hotel revenue. However, due to COVID-19
impacts, hotel revenue was down more than 90% nearly every day
through the spring and summer of 2020. As many as 29 hotels closed
at least temporarily. By June, the number of units listed on Airbnb
in Seattle had decreased by 26% year-over-year.
The hotel sector is expected to take a long time to recover from
the downturn, not returning to 2019 levels until 2023 or
later.
A Visitor Industry Devastated by COVID-19
Sources: Airbnb, Pike Place Market, Seattle Center, Visit Seattle
and Smith Travel Research
Ben Paris, The State Hotel
ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS / 20STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC
REPORT
Hotel Revenue Downtown Seattle
0M
2M
1M
3M
4M
5M
$0M
$250M
$500M
$750M
$1B
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Downtown Hotel Occupancy Compared to Peer Cities July 2019 vs.
2020
Sources: Visit Seattle and Smith Travel Research. Cities selected
from those that Visit Seattle considers Seattle’s peer
downtowns.
San Francisco
Thompson Seattle, West Edge
ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS / 21STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC
REPORT
Jobs at downtown hotels decreased by approximately 4,000 in the
second quarter of 2020 due to furloughs and layoffs. This
represents a loss equivalent to almost half the estimated 2019
hotel employment downtown.
Source: Puget Sound Regional Council. Note that the 2020 figure was
estimated using data from PSRC and the Washington State Employment
Security Department. While PSRC figures are for March of each year,
we estimated 2020 using data from April to better capture the
effects of COVID-19. The 2013 jobs data were unavailable and were
therefore interpolated.
Hotel Jobs Downtown Seattle
citizenM, South Lake Union
ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS / 22STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC
REPORT
Cruise Ships Seattle serves as the leading U.S. West Coast port for
Alaska cruises. The Port of Seattle has hosted more than 1 million
passengers annually since 2017* and is homeport to the largest
ships on the West Coast, including Norwegian Bliss, Norwegian
Encore and Ovation of the Seas. The major cruise lines serving
Seattle include Carnival, Celebrity, Holland America, Norwegian
Cruise Line, Oceania, Princess and Royal Caribbean.
Cruise Passengers Port of Seattle
961,698
885,949
870,994
823,780
898,032
983,539
1,071,594
1,210,722
1,114,888
934,900
2016
2019
2015
2014
2013
2018
2012
2011
2010
2017
2020 0
The 2020 Seattle cruise season was canceled with a loss of roughly
$900 million in economic impact and 5,500 jobs.
Source: Port of Seattle
*Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, all 2020 sailings were
canceled.
C re
d it
ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS / 23STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC
REPORT
The Washington State Convention Center has been a powerful economic
driver for our community. Since its opening in 1988, people from
outside Washington have spent over $6.9 billion locally when coming
to WSCC events. In 2019, this spending added an average of $986,062
per day to Washington’s economy and directly generated some 3,616
jobs (full-time equivalent).
At least 76 future citywide conventions previously booked at the
Washington State Convention Center have canceled, resulting in a
loss of at least $512 million in economic impact. Cancellations
represent a definite loss to the region because of Seattle’s lack
of available future dates and the fact that we have a smaller
convention center compared to other major cities.
Convention Attendance Washington State Convention Center
390,000
420,000
404,000
420,000
380,000
380,000
383,000
390,000
400,000
95,000
422,000
2016
2019
2015
2014
2013
2018
2020*
2012
2011
2010
2017
Opening in 2022, WSCC’s Summit building will be transformative,
adding an estimated $260 million in annual visitor spending and
3,900 direct and indirect jobs when fully operational. The Addition
is also supporting as many as 6,000 union jobs during construction,
including an estimated 900 apprentices. Located just one block
northeast of the existing Arch building, Summit will double the
capacity of the center’s offerings.
Looking Ahead: The Washington State Convention Center
Addition
*2020 figure is an unofficial estimate. Sources: Pine Street Group,
Washington State Convention Center
Washington State Convention Center Addition, Summit building
ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS / 24STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC
REPORT
In conjunction with the State of Downtown Economic Report, the
Downtown Seattle Association publishes a development guide each
year to summarize construction and investment activity downtown.
These statistics are a measure of optimism and confidence in the
future of the downtown economy.
COVID-19 has so far affected downtown construction activity less
than many other industries. There were fewer
In 2020, downtown developers completed 21 projects, including:
2,020 560 1.2M
As of December 2020, 54 projects were under construction,
including: 8,840 369 3.1M
Data Snapshot
Downtown Development
new residential units new hotel rooms square feet of new
office space
new projects announced in 2020 and some were canceled or put on
hold. Safety measures also delayed some projects underway. However,
Seattle remains one of the top markets in the nation for new
construction, once again outpacing all other U.S. cities in Rider
Levett Bucknall’s crane index (July 2020).
Source: DSA 2020 Year-end Development Guide
C re
d it
Transportation & Access
Credit: @transit_culturalism
COVID-19 Had a Profound Impact on Transportation in 2020
Seattle was the first major metro area in the nation impacted by
COVID-19. On March 5, King County recommended that anyone who could
work from home do so until at least the end of that month. This led
to a massive contraction in the number of people moving around the
city. When Washington Gov. Jay Inslee issued a statewide “Stay
Home, Stay Healthy” order on March 23, Seattleites were already
driving 45% less, taking transit 81% less frequently and walking
41% less, according to the Apple Mobility Index (which uses a Jan.
13, 2020 baseline). When Seattleites emerged from their homes
again, driving was the dominant mode of travel. By December 2020,
transit ridership remained down nearly 70% compared to the
baseline, while driving and walking were near pre-pandemic
levels.
As the employment center of the region, it is essential to have a
variety of options to get to, through and around downtown. Safe and
reliable transportation is a priority for DSA. Before COVID-19,
Seattle had some of the highest transit demand in the nation.
COVID-19, however, has impacted how people move about the city.
Preferences for transit and shared mobility options have given way
to a desire for personal space. Between diminished transit service,
social-distancing requirements limiting capacity, and a large share
of the population expressing apprehension about riding transit,
bringing the downtown workforce back to 2019 levels of ridership
will be a challenge. Shifting to driving is simply not an option
and is not consistent with Seattle’s climate goals. What is needed
for continued economic prosperity for downtown and the region is a
smart, forward-looking, multi-pronged mobility strategy.
In the section that follows, we look at how transportation to and
around downtown has changed over the past year and explore some of
the challenges and opportunities ahead.
-7%
48%
19%
Apple Mobility Index Average percent change from Jan. 13,
2020
DRIVING WALKINGTRANSIT
Source: Apple Mobility Index. Data indexed to where Jan. 13 = 100.
Based on phone searches for directions by mode of travel. Note that
this data is particular to users of Apple products and therefore
may not be representative of the entire population.
2020 Q2
2020 Q4
2020 Q3
TRANSPORTATION & ACCESS / 27STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC
REPORT
In 2020, transit ridership, including ferries and long-distance
rail, dropped 50% or more according to each agency’s data, but has
started to increase again. Driving showed the fastest return to
normal by the end of the year, with vehicular traffic on I-5 just
north and south of downtown down only 16%. According to the Seattle
Department of Transportation, vehicle traffic counts on downtown
surface streets are starting to tick up again as well. Having been
down approximately two-thirds from pre-COVID-19 levels in April and
May, surface traffic was down roughly a third from 2019 levels
toward the end of 2020.
Sources: Seattle Department of Transportation, Washington State
Department of Transportation COVID-19 Multimodal Transportation
System Performance Dashboard
Washington State Ferries (Downtown)
I-5 (Downtown)
-16% -16%
TRANSPORTATION & ACCESS / 28STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC
REPORT
Many employees based downtown are currently working from home due
to COVID-19. Cell phone data aggregated by Placer.ai showed that
weekday daytime visits to the neighborhood by those who work
downtown have consistently been down about 80% compared to pre-
pandemic levels. In a Commute Seattle survey, 89% of employers said
that some portion of their employees are working remotely, with
nearly three-quarters saying that between 81% and 100% of their
employees were doing so as of May 2020. In that same survey, 50% of
employers anticipated a post-COVID-19 work culture where their
employees would work from home at least a few times per week.
This is in line with national surveys of employers as well as
employees. In a meta-analysis of several national office employee
preference surveys, CoStar found that 21% of employees favor a
fully remote work environment, 55% prefer partially remote and 25%
prefer to work entirely at
A Shift Toward More Remote Work
Source: Commute Seattle
A few times a week
9%
41%
27%
9%
Questions asked:
Which best describes your organization’s remote work culture prior
to COVID-19?
After COVID-19, what do you anticipate your organization’s remote
work culture to be?
Pre-COVID-19
Post-COVID-19
the office after the pandemic is over. In addition to worker
preferences and a shift in office culture, COVID-19-related school
closures and lack of daycare options could keep employees from
returning to their offices in the near term.
The current work-from-home period has some clear downsides and a
mix of in-office and remote work is likely in the future. A study
published by Cushman & Wakefield shows that not all people want
to work from home and among those that do, most prefer a hybrid
model. Working exclusively from home, office workers feel
disconnected, and there are fewer opportunities, particularly among
new hires who benefit from in-person mentoring when working in an
office setting. Cushman & Wakefield’s research also showed that
work-from-home scenarios are likely to have only a slight impact on
office absorption as offices increase space per employee and
utilize more square footage for flexible meeting spaces.
R E
M O
TE W
O R
K F
R EQ
U E
N C
TRANSPORTATION & ACCESS / 29STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC
REPORT
In 2019, 74% of workers came downtown by some other means than
driving alone. That number had been steadily rising for more
than a decade. The largest share (46%) came by transit.
How Workers Commuted Before COVID-19
Source: Commute Seattle 2019 Commuter Mode Split Survey. Note that
this data does not include workers who live downtown but commute to
locations outside downtown; nor does it include the SoDo
neighborhood. Figures are based on those who begin work between 6–9
a.m. on weekdays.
Pre-COVID-19 Commute Choices Downtown Seattle workers
46%
26%
9%
6%
TRANSPORTATION & ACCESS / 30STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC
REPORT
In the face of the pandemic and beyond, Seattle and the region are
still actively investing in a world-class transportation system to
meet the future needs of the city. As workers return to their
offices, there must be viable options other than driving alone.
Before COVID-19, nearly half of downtown employees took transit to
work. Shifting even a quarter of these trips to cars is not a
viable solution. Downtown has a limited supply of parking and
roadways were already at capacity pre-COVID-19. The closure of the
West Seattle Bridge due to structural issues has decreased road
capacity further. Some city projects are getting pushed out into
the future, such as the Center City Connector streetcar along First
Avenue. Without additional resources to increase service levels and
ensure riders have enough personal space, the system cannot
sufficiently bring back downtown’s workforce.
When we move to a post-COVID-19 world, there may initially be
trepidation around transit use. Other commuting options such as
biking and walking can help fill the gaps.
Budget constraints may also limit the ability of transit agencies
to provide adequate service as workers begin to return downtown.
The 2021-22 King County budget noted that projected sales-tax
revenues for Metro in 2021-2022
The Need to Invest in a Variety of Transportation Options
are approximately $200 million less than the pre-COVID-19 forecast.
Sound Transit projects a revenue gap of $6.1 billion from 2020
through 2041.
There is some positive news. Light-rail stations opening in the
University District, Roosevelt and Northgate will connect these
neighborhoods to downtown as early as fall 2021. New stations in
Bellevue will allow for a 24-minute ride from downtown Bellevue to
Westlake Station by 2023 and commuters from Lynnwood will be able
to access downtown by light rail starting in 2024. Also, while
funding issues could cause some delay, the implementation of Sound
Transit 3 is still on the horizon, with opportunities to create
greater, long-term access across the region. Passed in 2016, ST3 is
the region’s largest investment in our transportation future. It
will dramatically increase connectivity to, through and within
downtown. The levy will fund an additional 62 miles of light-rail
lines, expand bus rapid transit, increase Sounder train capacity
and add a second downtown transit tunnel to serve six new stations.
In addition, 88% of Seattleites recently voted to fund 150,000
hours of transit service over the next six years through the
Seattle Transportation Benefit District.
Credit: Sound Transit
TRANSPORTATION & ACCESS / 31STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC
REPORT
Help your business get ready for the future of commuting. DSA
partner Commute Seattle provides free consultations and resources
to businesses on topics like transportation benefits, telework
policies, carpool and vanpool programs and supporting active
commutes. Visit commuteseattle.com to learn more and connect with
their transportation specialists.
It is important to provide a variety of safe, reliable ways to
travel. Long-term trends favor high transit usage. However, in the
wake of the pandemic and with restricted road and transit capacity,
other options must also be explored. This could include flexible
remote-work options. Encouraging walking and biking by providing
ample welcoming safe public spaces would also encourage the
adoption of these alternatives. Spreading out the workday with
staggered start times or compressed workweeks is another potential
way of bringing workers back safely in the short term while
transportation capacity is limited. In the long term, robust
transit funding to sustain and grow Seattle’s transit service will
help ensure a downtown and a region that are poised for recovery
and continued investment.
URBAN EXPERIENCE / 32STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC REPORT
Urban Experience
URBAN EXPERIENCE / 33STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC REPORT
Downtown has a strong economic foundation. In recent years, the
center city has seen growth and investments that position Seattle
for resiliency. Downtowns are strong due to their density, access
to public spaces and diversity of residents compared to car-
centered neighborhoods. Downtown Seattle’s walkability and
accessibility make it a place that a large cross-section of society
can access and enjoy. To ensure the resilience of downtown and the
region, these assets should be protected and built upon. Ongoing
attention to affordability, public amenities and safety are
critical.
Downtown is the center of Seattle’s cultural life. Before COVID-19,
downtown saw more foot traffic, more park users and more tourists
than anywhere else in the city. While the pandemic created a major
economic setback, we are confident that downtown will remain an
attractive place to visit, shop, live, work, play and invest.
In the section that follows, we look at what makes a vibrant urban
experience and how downtown Seattle is performing against these
metrics.
Holidays at Westlake Park
URBAN EXPERIENCE / 34STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC REPORT
*Our downtown total population estimate from Esri was adjusted
using residential occupancy data from CoStar to
account for changes due to COVID-19.
Source: Esri Community Analyst
$82,586
Downtown Demographics
Downtown Seattle has evolved into one of the most dynamic urban
centers in the country. During the past decade, a prospering job
market, a beautiful natural environment and vibrant shopping, arts,
restaurant and cultural scenes attracted record numbers of new
residents. While growth slowed in 2020 due to COVID-19-related
factors, the downtown core is expected to remain an attractive
place to live in the years to come. Today more than one in 10
Seattleites — 84,000 people — live in the center city.
The following is a snapshot of who makes downtown their home.
Please note that all statistics on downtown population and
households are estimates for July 1 of each year. Given the speed
and severity of the COVID-19 crisis, the data inputs used for these
estimates may not yet capture the full impact of the
pandemic.
Who Lives Downtown?
URBAN EXPERIENCE / 35STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC REPORT
Educational Achievement Among downtown Seattle residents, age
25+
While the city of Seattle ranks the highest in the nation for
educational attainment, according to U.S. Census Bureau data, the
downtown population scores even higher on education than the city
or county.
More than 5,500 children under 18 live downtown. In the past
decade, school- aged children (ages 5-17) increased by 168%.
Downtown has the densest and fastest-growing child population in
the city but, is the only neighborhood without its own public
school.
Children Under 18 Downtown Seattle
2010
2020
966
2,022
1,252
URBAN EXPERIENCE / 36STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC REPORT
Downtown has a larger share of low-income households and a lower
share of high-income households compared to
Seattle or King County.
Difference in Share of Households by Income Downtown Seattle
compared to King County
Households by Income Downtown Seattle
12.1%
6.2%
8.5%
12.7%
11.5%
17.7%
10.1%
14.8%
6.4%
URBAN EXPERIENCE / 37STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC REPORT
Loss of Foot Traffic Means the Loss of Business COVID-19 led to the
closure of many businesses downtown and across the region. In DSA’s
Business Outlook Survey conducted in May and September, restaurants
and retail were hit particularly hard and were more likely than
those in most other industries to express concern about having to
close locations or pay rent. These industries, along with arts,
entertainment and hotels, also said it would take longer to bring
employees back and become profitable than those in other industries
represented in the survey.
COVID-19 Had a Profound Impact on the Urban Environment
*Note that this count refers to specific brick-and-mortar
locations. Some of these businesses shifted to other models such as
online and delivery and some may still have open locations downtown
or elsewhere. While it’s assumed that the majority of these
locations closed due to the
pandemic, there may be other reasons for business closures. DSA’s
business closure tracking is not a complete inventory. Rather, it
is primarily based on news reports, announcements by individual
businesses, and listings and direct observation of spaces that have
gone up for lease.
Business Closures • According to a study by Yelp, more than 4,500
businesses
in the Seattle Metro area had closed between March and April. By
the end of August, that number was still over 3,000, with 59% being
permanent.
• DSA has tracked more than 220 permanent street-level business
location closures in Seattle in 2020, including more than 160
downtown alone.*
• Despite a decline in foot traffic downtown, roughly 90 businesses
overcame all odds to open new storefronts in 2020.
Fifth & Pine
Creative Solutions in the Face of Crisis
Outdoor Seating Many restaurants added outdoor seating. Some
brought shelters by way of tents, canopies or plexiglass. Others
experimented with dining bubbles. In response to the impacts of
COVID-19 on local businesses, the Seattle Department of
Transportation has issued special permits allowing for expanded use
of sidewalks and street space by restaurants. At the start of 2021,
there were 61 downtown restaurants with these temporary outdoor
seating permits. DSA’s Park Ambassadors spaced out tables and
chairs for social distancing and added spacing indicators for food
truck lines.
Economic recovery could be a two- or three-year time horizon, but
actions can be taken now to sustain downtown’s treasured mix of
amenities and ensure a thriving urban core. Support for small
business is essential. Creative adaptation of shared public space
is key to addressing the economic effects of the pandemic and
impacts of social isolation. Also,
maintaining outreach, clean and safe services, which the DSA
provides through the Metropolitan Improvement District, are a
foundation for recovery and renewal.
Below are just a few of the creative responses that emerged in
2020.
Takeout and Delivery As COVID-19 impacted the ability to serve
large groups of patrons with the same density, businesses and
nonprofits shifted gears. Some restaurants enhanced delivery
services and added take-out options and to-go windows for food and
cocktails. Some offered products that were not previously part of
their business model. And some began using their kitchens to make
food for those in need.
Pike Place Market
URBAN EXPERIENCE / 39STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC REPORT
Urban Art DSA helped coordinate corporate and private funding to
hire artists and create many storefront murals on boarded-up
buildings during business shutdowns. The murals added a touch of
vibrancy, creativity and positivity and helped to deter graffiti
and damage while stores were closed. With these shutdowns, there
was more than an acre’s worth of plywood spread across the facades
of businesses in the Pike-Pine corridor alone.
Through the work of DSA and others, numerous murals were created in
downtown neighborhoods:
53+ Pioneer Square
39+ Retail Core
38+ Belltown Chinatown-ID
50+ Capitol Hill
Photo credit: Matt McDonald
Street art, downtown Seattle
URBAN EXPERIENCE / 40STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC REPORT
Assuming that downtown followed the trends for King County, the
center city lost an estimated $103 million in taxable retail sales
in 2020 (a 5% drop for the year). We also estimate (based on county
trends) that approximately 4,400 brick-and-mortar retail jobs were
lost downtown in the second quarter, though some of those have come
back. This was after downtown had seen a 5% increase in
brick-and-mortar retail employment in 2019.
Sources: Esri, Opportunity Insights, Puget Sound Forecaster, Puget
Sound Regional Council.
A Changing Retail Landscape
Actual Forecast
Downtown’s Retail Real Estate Downtown currently has 10.3 million
square feet of retail space, with nearly a half million more under
construction. After achieving a record low of 1.7% in 2019,
downtown’s retail vacancy is estimated to have reached 2.5% by the
end of 2020 and rent growth slowed to a halt.
2010 2015 2020 20252010 2015 2020 2025
Retail Rent Downtown Seattle
$0 0%
URBAN EXPERIENCE / 41STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC REPORT
Peer-city Comparisons Seattle was about on par with other downtowns
nationally for retail performance. Retail occupancy was either flat
or down in all of these downtowns. Overall, they fared somewhat
worse than their metro areas but, retail struggled at both the
downtown and metro levels.
Source: CoStar. The cities were selected based on similarities to
Seattle that make them competitive markets (for example, strong
growth in tech talent). For consistency, CoStar’s “multifamily”
downtown boundary was used for each city except for Seattle, where
DSA’s boundary was used. Note that these are preliminary
numbers.
Change in Occupied Square Feet of Retail Space Among peer-city
downtowns, year-over-year in 2020
-1.6%
-1.6%
0.0%
-1.8%
-0.1%
-2.0%
-1.0%
-0.3%
-2.1%
-0.4%
-0.8%
-1.2%
Chicago
Denver
Austin
Boston
URBAN EXPERIENCE / 42STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC REPORT
Parts of the economy have already started to reopen with new
protocols in place to ensure safety for workers and customers.
Nevertheless, national polling and evidence from other areas that
have reopened show that — regardless of the level of reopening —
the pandemic will continue to have a depressing effect on the
economy, particularly for sectors related to travel or in places
where people congregate such as fitness centers, restaurants,
hotels, sports, arts and entertainment venues.
Arts, Entertainment and Restaurant Industries Were Hit Hard in
2020
The Paramount Theatre
Food-Service Jobs Downtown Seattle
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Economic Impacts to the Arts Nearly all arts organizations canceled
programs due to COVID-19 and a majority called off annual
fundraisers, a critical source of revenue for these organizations.
ArtsFund surveyed its members in March 2020 and projected that
Puget Sound-area arts organizations would see the following as a
direct result of COVID-19:
Job Impacts While many of the jobs lost have already started coming
back, COVID-19 shutdowns had a profound impact on these industries.
There were approximately 13,700 job losses among downtown
food-service workers in the second quarter of 2020. This is the
equivalent of approximately 60% of the total food- service jobs
downtown in 2019. Center city jobs in arts, entertainment and
recreation industries decreased by roughly 6,300 in the second
quarter, the equivalent of approximately three-quarters of the
employment in these industries downtown in 2019.
Source: Puget Sound Regional Council. Note that the 2020 figure was
estimated using data from PSRC and the Washington State Employment
Security Department. While PSRC figures are for March of each year,
we estimated 2020 using data from April to better capture the
effects of COVID-19. The 2013 jobs data were unavailable and were
therefore interpolated.
Arts, Entertainment and Recreation Jobs Downtown Seattle
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
$135M5,000 in lost revenue in 2020workers furloughed
or laid off
AS MUCH ASNEARLY
Violent Crime in Downtown Seattle Includes aggravated assault,
homicide, rape and robbery
Before downtown can return to viability, some key challenges must
be addressed. Public spaces must feel accessible, safe and
welcoming to everyone. Before COVID-19 and the civil unrest
triggered by the murders of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor and
others, the issue of homelessness nearly always topped the list of
concerns in downtown stakeholder surveys, along with transportation
and housing affordability. Recently, there has been a notable
increase in the number of people citing concerns about public
safety as well.
COVID-19 Heightened Challenges Facing Downtown’s Urban
Environment
A Safe Urban Environment for Everyone Seattle’s criminal-justice
and behavioral-health systems are fractured and fail to protect all
Seattleites, deter crime, support, or help those who become trapped
in a cycle of crime, arrest and release. In the face of a
public-health crisis, this puts downtown small businesses in
further jeopardy. Concerns over personal safety are compounding
concerns about returning to the office. Citywide and downtown
polling shows that Seattleites believe there is an urgent need to
help people struggling in crisis on our streets. In this
environment, downtown is in a fragile state and without action,
this could have long-term impacts.
Without a cohesive solution, downtown has seen an increase in
reports of violence, theft, vandalism and individuals in crisis.
All of these make the neighborhood feel less safe. The increase in
violent crime is particularly disturbing. Between 2015 and 2020,
these crimes increased by 23%.
As downtown reckons with the current health and economic crisis and
continued social injustice, our city leaders must come together to
forge a way that allows Seattle to be a model for cities around the
world by becoming a safe and welcoming place for everyone and an
attractive destination for visitors, residents and
investment.
Source: City of Seattle
URBAN EXPERIENCE / 45STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC REPORT
A January 2020 point-in-time count conducted by All Home King
County tallied 11,751 individuals experiencing homelessness in King
County — a 5% increase over 2019. Roughly half of those were
sleeping outside, mostly within the city of Seattle.
The need has only gotten more urgent in the face of a public-health
crisis. As COVID-19 outbreaks created fear of sleeping in shelters
and capacity was limited due to social-distancing requirements, the
number of tents throughout downtown’s neighborhoods multiplied
dramatically. By the end of 2020, the number of tents downtown had
increased to more than three times the highest previous
record.
As a region, we must address our growing homelessness crisis. The
city of Seattle and King County are moving forward together on
plans to merge operations and policy- making for homelessness
services. This is a much-needed step toward housing the incredible
number of people experiencing homelessness in Seattle and King
County. However, this work has only begun. We can’t lose focus on
what’s happening downtown, where hundreds sleep outside on any
given night. A sustainable solution requires working together on
many fronts. This includes increasing coordination, diversion and
prevention, state and regional investment, and increased housing
supply.
Seattle Continues to Face a Growing Homeless Crisis
DSA Outreach Team near Western Avenue
URBAN EXPERIENCE / 46STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC REPORT
A Vision for Downtown For downtown Seattle and urban centers across
the country, 2020 proved to be a very challenging year. But we
believe our future is bright. As we rebuild, we have the
opportunity to double down on what makes Seattle strong and
reinvent what needs improvement. By investing in our neighborhoods,
businesses, parks and infrastructure and creating a downtown that
is truly everyone’s neighborhood, downtown will emerge even more
resilient, more inclusive and more dynamic than before.
URBAN EXPERIENCE / 47STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC REPORT
Getting Our City Back to Work Downtown provides more than half of
the city’s jobs and business taxes. City operations and municipal
services depend on its economic recovery. Over the past year, more
than 160 downtown businesses were forced to close permanently and
our tourism and hospitality industries ground to a near halt. A
successful recovery means supporting business owners and employers
as they get back on their feet. It means ensuring a welcoming
center city for employees, residents and visitors. And it means a
downtown that is clean, safe, well-maintained and with a stable,
predictable business climate.
Connecting Our Region A successful recovery is dependent on
ensuring that people have many ways to move around our region. As
more people are vaccinated and it becomes safe to gather in greater
numbers, we must ensure our transit network keeps pace and can meet
demand. Last year, Seattleites overwhelmingly voted to bring
150,000 transit service hours back to our streets, and we’ll carry
forward generational investments in streetcar and light- rail
networks. In the coming years, Sound Transit 3 will add six new
light-rail stations in downtown and connect downtown to new corners
of our region.
Innovating a Better Crisis Response The COVID-19 pandemic further
challenged our capacity to serve Seattle’s most vulnerable and
provide immediate services to people in need. The urgency of the
crisis gave rise to programs that demonstrated a new, successful
model for serving the unsheltered in hotels rather than crowded,
congregate shelters. King County laid plans to house thousands of
the area’s chronically homeless by purchasing available hotels and
assisted-living facilities. But with a growing unsheltered
population, we must do more. We must make good on our values as a
compassionate city by streamlining resources and innovating new
strategies to efficiently deliver additional emergency housing
capacity, new crisis response programs and evidence-based treatment
services.
Fulfilling Our Promise for a Safe and Just Downtown
Violent crime downtown increased 23% between 2015 and 2020, and
vandalism during the pandemic crippled businesses with already
razor-thin margins. Meanwhile, Seattleites — like peers across the
country — are demanding substantive changes to policing strategies
and greater accountability. Identifying appropriate and effective
solutions will require intentional planning, a deliberate and
inclusive public process involving the business community, and an
evidence-based approach.
URBAN EXPERIENCE / 48STATE OF DOWNTOWN 2021 ECONOMIC REPORT
Art Installation: Holding Hope
Fostering a Vibrant Public Realm This past year, we saw the
advancement of transformative public projects, including the
waterfront redevelopment and the opening of the city’s newest park,
Pier 62. Climate Pledge Arena moved closer to completion, building
anticipation for the games, concerts and events that will delight
locals and attract new visitors to downtown. As we build toward
recovery, we must recommit to the care and maintenance of our parks
and public spaces and plant the seeds for more public and private
investment to ensure Seattle remains a desirable place to live,
work, visit and do business for years to come.
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