State Employment Gap and Job Polarization

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State Labor Market Slack and Job Polarization

Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Alabama

Alaska

Arizona

State Total Employment Gap Employment Gap Comparison Job Polarization Comparison

Arkansas

California

Colorado

State Total Employment Gap Employment Gap Comparison Job Polarization Comparison

Connecticut

Delaware

Florida

State Total Employment Gap Employment Gap Comparison Job Polarization Comparison

Georgia

Hawaii

Idaho

State Total Employment Gap Employment Gap Comparison Job Polarization Comparison

Illinois

Indiana

Iowa

State Total Employment Gap Employment Gap Comparison Job Polarization Comparison

Kansas

Kentucky

Louisiana

State Total Employment Gap Employment Gap Comparison Job Polarization Comparison

Maine

Maryland

Mass.

State Total Employment Gap Employment Gap Comparison Job Polarization Comparison

Michigan

Minnesota

Mississippi

State Total Employment Gap Employment Gap Comparison Job Polarization Comparison

Missouri

Montana

Nebraska

State Total Employment Gap Employment Gap Comparison Job Polarization Comparison

Nevada

New

Hampshire

New

Jersey

State Total Employment Gap Employment Gap Comparison Job Polarization Comparison

New

Mexico

New

York

North

Carolina

State Total Employment Gap Employment Gap Comparison Job Polarization Comparison

North

Dakota

Ohio

Oklahoma

State Total Employment Gap Employment Gap Comparison Job Polarization Comparison

Oregon

Penn.

Rhode

Island

State Total Employment Gap Employment Gap Comparison Job Polarization Comparison

South

Carolina

South

Dakota

Tennessee

State Total Employment Gap Employment Gap Comparison Job Polarization Comparison

Texas

Utah

Vermont

State Total Employment Gap Employment Gap Comparison Job Polarization Comparison

Virginia

Washington

West

Virginia

State Total Employment Gap Employment Gap Comparison Job Polarization Comparison

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Wisconsin

Wyoming

State Total Employment Gap Employment Gap Comparison Job Polarization Comparison

19Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

MethodologyThe state level Total Employment Gap measure is based on Andrew Levin’s work at the IMF and Dartmouth. It combines the unemployment gap, the labor force participation gap and the underemployment gap to gauge how far the labor market is from full employment. Available data at the state level is not identical to the U.S. overall. While the specifics do differ between these estimates and Dr. Levin’s, the broader trends and calculations are similar.

Unemployment Gap: Calculate the average difference in unemployment rates between each individual state and the U.S. over the 1990 to 2006 time period. Add this average difference to the Congressional Budget Office’s estimate for NAIRU to obtain a state level NAIRU estimate. The unemployment gap is the difference between the state’s actual unemployment rate and this state level NAIRU.

Participation Gap: Create a state demographically-adjusted labor force participation rate. Fix age cohort LFPR at 2000 rates and apply these fixed rates over time to the changing demographic/population figures by state. Since population figures are available annually, convert annual data to monthly or quarterly using a frequency conversion (e.g. Eviews.) The participation gap is the difference between the actual LFPR and the demographically-adjusted series.

Underemployment: Calculate those working part-time for economic reasons as share of the labor force. Average the 2005-07 values; this is an estimate of PT for economic reasons at full employment. Calculate the difference between actual PT for economic reasons as share of the labor force and the 2005-07 average. Divide by 2 to estimate full-time equivalent positions.

20Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

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