State Budget Update NCSL Symposium for Legislative Leaders New York City December 17, 2014 Corina Eckl National Conference of State Legislatures
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State Budget Update
NCSL Symposium for Legislative Leaders
New York City December 17, 2014
Corina Eckl
National Conference of State Legislatures
Overview
State budgets generally are stable.
Most states expect to meet their revenue estimates.
Spending is on target in most states, though there are exceptions.
State Year-End Balances FY 1981 to FY 2015 (projected)
Recession Length: 18 months Recession Length: 8 months Recession Length: 8 months Recession Length: 16 months Source: NCSL survey of state legislative fiscal offices, various years
4.8%
11.9%
8.5%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
State Year-End Balances FY 2006 to FY 2015 (projected)
Source: NCSL survey of state legislative fiscal offices, various years
4.8%
All Jurisdictions 8.5%
1.8%
W/O: AK and TX, 5.8%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Year
-en
d b
alan
ce a
s a
% o
f st
ate
sp
en
din
g
Fiscal Year
FY 2015 Performance of Major Tax Categories
12
16
10
8
19
13
9
5
14
15
10
6
Personal Income Tax General Sales & Use Tax Corporate Income Tax
Source: NCSL survey of state legislative fiscal offices, fall 2014.
Not Available: Louisiana, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska and Wisconsin
Above Estimates
On Target
Below Estimate
Not levied
Revenue Outlook for FY 2015
Not Available: Missouri, Minnesota, North Carolina and Wisconsin
Source: NCSL survey of state legislative fiscal offices, fall 2014.
7
35
5
Unlikely to Meet Forecast
Expected to Meet Forecast
Likely to Exceed Forecast
Changes in General Fund Spending in FY 2014 and FY 2015
4.0%
3.5%
3.2%
3.3%
3.4%
3.5%
3.6%
3.7%
3.8%
3.9%
4.0%
4.1%
FY 2014 (estimated) FY 2015 (projected)
Percent Change in General Fund Appropriations for Major Budget Categories in
FY 2015 (projected)
Medicaid 6.4%
Higher Education
5.9%
K-12 Education
4.4%
Corrections 1.2%
Source: NCSL survey of state legislative fiscal offices, summer 2014
Areas of Spending Over Budget FY 2015
Source: NCSL survey of state legislative fiscal offices, fall 2014
14
8
2
9
5 5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Medicaid K-12 Education
Higher Education
Corrections Social Services Other
Nu
mb
er
of
Stat
es
State Fiscal Situation
Near term: Relatively stable.
Longer term: Less stability and predictability.
What’s on the Horizon?
• Revenue concerns
• Spending pressures
• The next economic downturn?
Questions?
Contact
[email protected] 303-856-1388
Resources
Fiscal Affairs Homepage: http://www.ncsl.org/fiscal
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