See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 7 Equity Research Equity Research Report Company Report Sun Art Retail (06808 HK) 股 票 研 究 公 司 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 消 费 行 业 | 零 售 高 鑫 零 售 Company Report: Sun Art Retail (06808 HK) Andrew Song 宋涛 公司报告:高鑫零售 (06808 HK) +852 2509 5313 [email protected]12 May 2017 Stable Results but Lacking Surprise, Maintain “ Neutral ” 表现稳定但缺乏惊喜,维持“中性” 1Q17 revenue reached RMB 31,617 million, up 2.0% YoY, net profit increased 1.5% YoY to RMB 1,041 million. SSS declined approximately 1.5% YoY during the period, of which, foot traffic dropped by around 4% YoY and per ticket price rose by 3%-4% YoY. Key takeaways: 1) Gross margin was flat YoY, but if excluding VAT impact was up 0.3 ppts; 2) SSSG declined in 1Q17 due to the timing of Chinese New Year in 2017 and one day less in February 2017 compared with 2016; 3) store closures brought an impairment loss of around RMB 60 million and the Company targets to close 1-2 more sometime in the year; 4) e-commerce loss narrowed by RMB 30 million in 1Q17. Revenue growth remained moderate in 1Q17 and SSSG remained negative. The earnings growth did not meet market expectations and the Company’s stock price has recently plunged. The reduction in e-commerce loss helps but the effect is limited. We maintain the investment rating as “Neutral” and TP of HK$ 6.91, representing 20.5x 2017 PER, 18.9x 2018 PER and 17.5x 2019 PER. 2017 年第一季度收入同比上升 2.0%至人民币 31,617 百万元,股东净利同比上升 1.5%至 人民币 1,041 百万元。公司同店销售略微同比下降约 1.5%,其中客流量同比下降约 4%, 客单价同比提升 3%-4%。 关键摘要:1)毛利率同比持平,但除去增值税影响同比改善 0.3 个百分点;2)2017 年 第一季度同店增长倒退主要由于农历新年日期及 2 月相比 2016 年减少一天;3)关店录 得约 6000 万人民币的减值损失,且公司计划在今年剩下时间里再关闭 1-2 家;4)2017 年第一季度电商亏损收窄 3000 万人民币。 2017 年第一季度收入增长温和,同店增长仍未转正。盈利增速不及市场预期,公司股价 在近日下降较多。电商减亏有所帮助但是效果有限。我们维持高鑫零售的投资评级“中 性”及目标价 6.91 港元,相当于公司 20.5 倍 2017 年市盈率、18.9 倍 2018 年市盈率和 17.5 倍 2019 年市盈率。 Rating: Neutral Maintained 评级: 中性 (维持) 6-18m TP 目标价: HK$6.91 Revised from 原目标价: HK$6.91 Share price 股价: HK$6.900 Stock performance 股价表现 (10.0) 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 % of return HSI Index SUN ART RETAIL Change in Share Price 股价变动 1 M 1 个月 3 M 3 个月 1 Y 1 年 Abs. % 绝对变动 % (11.7) (13.5) 33.7 Rel. % to HS index 相对恒指变动 % (15.0) (20.1) 7.6 Avg. share price(HK$) 平均股价(港元) 7.7 7.5 6.3 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. Year End 年结 Turnover 收入 Net Profit 股东净利 EPS 每股净利 EPS 每股净利变动 PER 市盈率 BPS 每股净资产 PBR 市净率 DPS 每股股息 Yield 股息率 ROE 净资产收益率 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) (△%) (x) (RMB) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2015A 96,414 2,443 0.256 (15.7) 22.6 2.175 2.7 0.160 2.8 12.1 2016A 100,441 2,571 0.270 5.2 21.8 2.284 2.6 0.200 3.4 12.1 2017F 106,210 2,732 0.286 6.3 20.5 2.370 2.5 0.144 2.5 12.3 2018F 113,374 2,961 0.310 8.4 18.9 2.536 2.3 0.156 2.7 12.7 2019F 121,213 3,194 0.335 7.9 17.5 2.715 2.2 0.168 2.9 12.7 Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 9,539.7 Major shareholder 大股东 A-RT Retail Holdings Ltd. 51.0% Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 65,823.9 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 21.7 3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 14,057.2 FY17 Net gearing (%) FY17 年净负债/股东资金 (%) Net cash 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低 8.880 / 4.780 FY17 Est. NAV (HK$) FY17 年每股估值 (港元) 7.2 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. Consumer Sector – Retailing
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Stable Results but Lacking Surprise, Maintain Neutral
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Company Report: Sun Art Retail (06808 HK) Andrew Song 宋涛
Buy Relative Performance >15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable.
Accumulate Relative Performance is 5% to 15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable.
Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral.
Reduce Relative Performance is -5% to -15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable.
Sell Relative Performance <-15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable.
Sector Rating Definition
The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index
Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months
Rating Definition
Outperform Relative Performance >5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable.
Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral.
Underperform Relative Performance <-5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable.
DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS
(1) The Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Except for SMI Holdings Group Limited (00198 HK), GFI MSCI A I-R (CNY) (83156 HK), Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited
(01788 HK), GFI MSCI A I (03156 HK), Binhai Investment Company Limited (02886 HK), CAM SCSMALLCAP (03157 HK) and Link Holdings Limited (08237 HK), Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report.
(4) Guotai Junan and its group companies have not had investment banking relationships with the issuer mentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months.
(5) Guotai Junan and its group companies are not making a market in the securities in respect of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report.
(6) Guotai Junan and its group companies have not employed an individual serving as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. There is no officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report associated with Guotai Junan and its group companies.
DISCLAIMER
This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities