St Lucia's Survival Options - Nobel Week 2012 Feature Address

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STLUCIA'SSURVIVALOPTIONS

SirArthurLewisLecture2012Dr.DidacusJulesRegistrar&CEOCaribbeanExaminationsCouncil26thJanuary2012

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I would like to express my thanks to the Her Excellency Dame Dr. Pearlette Louisy and the Nobel Celebration Committee for this opportunity to share some reflections on St. Lucia’s survival options in this era of globalization and in the international context of heightened uncertainty, geo‐strategic re‐alignment and ecological danger. I would also like to clarify that I speak here tonight as a St. Lucian and not in my capacity as Registrar of CXC – the views to be expressed here are my own and not those of CXC. 1 Globalizationandtheworldcrisis The first most important point that needs to be made is that – in today’s world ‐ nothing is purely local anymore. Inter connectedness and interdependence is the distinguishing feature of our time. As a planet, the earth has always been one great living organism in which life supports life and the cycle of the seasons are part of this great universal rhythm. Our capacity to move mountains was exercised in contradiction to the balancing impulse of Nature. And so by our own actions we have brought many species including ourselves to the possibility of extinction. Human communication and the progress of technology have also widened and deepened interconnectedness and interdependence. Globalization of trade and the internet have opened new channels that connect us inseparably and virtually. Jeffrey Sachs (2007) speaking at Columbia University on the Future of Globalization identified four (4) deep drivers of this process as being:

The rise of Asia and the demise of the North Atlantic hegemony – since the end of the Cold War a profound realignment of global power has been unfolding and it appears that while the Soviet Empire lost the political war; the American Empire is now losing the economic war. And it is important to note that this change in the balance of power and influence does not represent a collapse of US influence as much as the rise in wealth and relative power of other countries. Two simple revealing indications of that geo‐political shift: a few weeks ago the Europeans made an approach to China for financial support for the European bail‐out and President Obama headed to Disneyland to make a major speech aimed at promoting tourism pitched at the BRIC countries.

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Demographic changes – world population is on the increase – projected to be 9 billion by 2050. The bulk of that increase is in developing countries and conversely in the developed countries, aging of population is a significant feature. We are all familiar with the population growth trajectory in China but what is less recognized is the rebalancing of population in Africa and the huge demographic increase in the religion of Islam. It was announced last week that China had finally reached the point when the majority of its population lives in urban environments. Urbanization has been a highly inequitable process. Over half of the world’s population lives in urban areas but account for 75% of global energy use and 80% of carbon emissions. The top 25 cities produce more than half the world’s wealth.

Eco‐system pressures – these demographic changes are creating additional pressure on the old models of economic production that results in an acceleration of eco‐system pressures: climate change, water stress, food supply challenges and the loss of both flora and fauna to the encroaching human species. The competition for the use of resources to fuel economic growth is immense and unsustainable.

The emergence of failed states – failure of state systems and rational governance in any part of the world now constitutes a threat to any other part of the world. Global convergence means that disease not contained can spread; violence and genocide create unmanageable refugee problems for neighbouring states (Haiti in our Caribbean); nuclear proliferation in unstable regimes creates instability within and beyond their regions.

The globalization of labour markets – St. Lucian expert on migration based at UWI Mona, Dr. Natacha Mortley has added a fifth driver to Sach’s 4 drivers and has argued that the transnationalization of labour markets is a major feature of the globalization phenomenon in our time. This is most trenchantly expressed in international outsourcing models, wholescale migrant labour and borderless employment (e.g. the Cruise Industry).

All of this is fundamentally changing the nature of things as we know them. The world in 2012 is a very different place from 1980. In small things big changes have occurred that have altered our frames of reference for ever. Mail is no longer something that we send through the post; personal addresses are less and less physical and more virtual. As James Huggings expressed it in “Remember When”: there was a time when a computer was something you saw in Sci Fi films,

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a window was something you hated to clean, ram was the cousin of a goat, an application was for employment, a cursor used profanity, memory was something you lost with age, a CD was a bank account, and if you had a 3 ½ inch floppy you hoped no one found out.. In today’s world, the key to progress is transformation – i.e. whole systems change. Incremental change can no longer provide the impetus for survival in a turbulent environment. We are like swimmers in a turbulent sea of heavy rolling waves and unpredictable currents with fatal undertows. In such an environment, it is not simply about your ability to swim and to tread water but your capability to ride the crests of the most threatening waves to that safer shore. And the technologies of today provide such enabling potential. There are very dramatic recent indicators and evidence of the transformational possibilities in the spread of new technologies. Popular uprisings against oppression are the dynamic of history but what is qualititatively different today is the empowering role of technology in this process. Facebook facilitated the Arab spring going viral and providing an organizing space outside the sphere of control of the state. It has been predicted that the coming decade could signal the rise of Africa – the next emerging economic space. Accounting for 14% of the world population, its GDP growth has averaged 5.7% over the past decade and is projected to average 7% over the next 20 years. Its population is expected to account for 20% of world population. Chinese investment in Africa will boost extractive industry but the real growth opportunities lie in new industries that are enabled by modern technologies. Foremost among them is mobile communication. Ten years ago most of the Sub‐Saharan countries were disadvantaged by the poor communications infrastructure; landlines were antiquated and not widely available; mobile was prohibitively expensive. Today Africa has leapfrogged even some of the developed countries, bypassing the need for the old wired technology, and has moved to cellular communication. 90% of all phones in Africa are mobile phones and by the end of this year, there will be 735 million mobile subscribers in Africa. Even more impressive than the raw statistics are the social demographics of usage and the ways in which the technology is being deployed. African farmers and artisans are using mobiles to receive market intelligence that

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guides their production and supply efforts, housewives are using it for electronic cash transfers, fishermen are utilizing GPS capabilities... 2 Theessentialchallengesthatweface This process of global convergence that we have just reviewed is impacting or has profound implications for St. Lucia whether we accept this or not. These global currents at the least limit the options that are available to us in the Caribbean as small vulnerable economies and at worst, they directly impact livelihoods and jobs, the cost of living, and the type of future that is open to us. But while it is important to understand these trends and tendencies, it is more important to have a factual understanding of ourselves because it is that self‐awareness that will enable us to reposition ourselves and establish our priorities. Secondly we need to appreciate that the old distinction between short‐term, medium term and long term actions and priorities is being increasingly eroded – uncertainty and the pace of change in today’s world are so rapid and extensive, that action is now compressed into what we must do now to stem current crises and what we must do now to lay the basis for a different tomorrow. Even our short term actions must be infused by some strategic intent so that what we do today does not shortchange our possibilities for tomorrow. The essential challenges that we face are centered in three spheres: the political, the social and the economic; although sometimes these challenges cannot be simply reduced to any one of these categories. The problem of drugs in Caribbean society for example is indistinguishably a political, economic and social fracture because it distorts wealth creation in society, breeds criminality, subverts our political processes, fuels addiction and abuse (impacting health), corrupts our social morality and destroys vital community and family structures. So in addressing essential challenges, we must recognize the need for comprehensive multisectoral solutions that tackle the problem from many angles and not unidimensionally. What is the essence of these challenges? Political – the long term historical project of building democracy and shaping

governance. This challenge, as we shall see, goes way beyond the

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tribal and the temporal partisan issues of who governs when to the more critical issue of the institutional and cultural architecture in which we nurture the empowerment of citizens.

Social ‐ ultimately about the quality of community and family in society. The

big picture is how well we live together – the quality of life is more a function of the quality of human interaction and solidarity than determined by wealth

Economic ‐ how we earn and produce. The big picture is how happy are we with

our options for achieving these. The real picture should ideally be jobs and livelihoods from which individuals derive a sense of self‐worth, fulfilment and the capacity for personal economic independence.

Another imperative that we face in the realm of the political is the challenge of making sense of the regional integration project. The early shapers of the dream of a united Caribbean were very clear that the viability of individual nations could only be assured within a collective framework; that our capacity to survive and thrive in an uncaring international environment depended on our preparedness to live, work and act together. Errol Barrow spoke in 1986 of the “absolute necessity to promote and defend the solidarity and sovereignty of this regional Caribbean family and also the absolute obligation to discover those strategies which will ultimately lead to unity of action in all major areas of our economic, social and political life”. Sir Arthur himself in his acceptance address of the Nobel Prize in 1979 asserted the importance of some political convergence as a necessary condition for balanced growth:

“Advocates of the balanced growth alternative are also always advocates of political federation or unions of states; in the absence of such a political framework the criticism of growth via exports rests on unspoken and non‐existent alternatives”

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3 Thedrivingimperativesandtheoptionsavailable We are a highly opinionated society – everyone has a perspective which they hold to be true often on the basis of anecdotal conjecture. Understanding where we stand in St. Lucia must be based not on supposition but on empirical data and fact. And decision making must be based on hard reality if we are to successfully transform our condition. Allow me to present some snapshots that paint the statistical reality of the local situation in each sphere of challenge. I will also point to very critical immediate as well as strategic imperatives derived from these facts which must be addressed if our future is to be assured. Political realities I spoke earlier about the historical project of building democracy. The essence of this is inculcating a sense of citizenship – a sense, embedded deep in the psyche of individual St. Lucians, of belonging and inalienable ownership of this country. That this does not currently exist within the general population is the consequence of a number of factors ranging from disillusionment with the tribal divisiveness of our party politics, to the disillusionment of unemployment, to the absence of historical awareness. An examination of electoral statistics over the last five elections (1992‐2011) reveals that – with the exception of 1997 – a greater percentage of the electorate has chosen not to vote than than the percentage voting for either of the main parties.

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There is a vital narrative embedded in this picture with profound lessons for all political parties that necessitates an explanation of these patterns of voter behaviour. The non voting percentage is significant enough to raise troubling questions about the future of democracy in St. Lucia, the engagement of citizens in shaping their future and the character of the national agenda. The exception displayed in 1997 also requires deep reflection and analysis as it suggests that voter disenchantment IS a reversible condition. Under what circumstances? Only when credibility and confidence in a different future can be restored. This pattern is not unique – voter disenchantment is a growing worldwide phenomenon. In the recent Jamaican election, it was reported that voter turn out (despite the wide parliamentary margin) was the lowest since 1949. In our 2011 election, the SLP prevailed with 50% of the votes cast against 46% for the UWP. The wider picture is that 43% of the St. Lucian electorate did not vote while SLP’s share of the total electorate was 28% and UWP’s 26%.

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If we are concerned about the future of this country, this reality must be the subject of deep introspection and critical scrutiny by all political forces. Too many St. Lucians are failing to exercise their right to vote – a right earned by the blood of our foreparents. Prime Minister Anthony is on record as calling for voter education. This is understandable in light of the closeness of the count in some polling areas and the relatively significant number of spoilt ballots. The inability of many citizens to competently make their electoral mark points to a bigger problem of functional competencies in navigating the everyday world of print. This is more than simply a literacy issue in the traditional sense. That same deficit is expressed in the inability to fill out everyday forms, to understand and act on simple directions, to systematically and sequentially follow instructions, to discriminate between options. Where do we start this process of reconstructing citizens? It must happen at many levels simultaneously. A sense of civic responsibility and historical awareness must be developed from early. Even from the kindergarten classroom, our children must learn responsibility by being given responsibility. Our pedagogies of instruction in schools must help create voice for students –

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challenge their thinking, enlist their creativity, foster their curiosity. Student Councils should be a formal structure in the governance of secondary schools. At the level of the curriculum, the teaching of history and social studies must find practical expression in community projects that a) expose students to the governance mechanisms of the society (visits to Parliament, Govt departments etc) b) engage students in national service and community development initiatives. The recent publication of A History of St. Lucia by Harmsen, Ellis and Devaux is a timely initiative that can lend substance to this educational thrust in schools and in adult continuing education. Examined in the wider context of electoral participation, the challenge is therefore deeper than the mechanics of voting and points to the imperative of revitalizing the democratic tradition and the reconstruction of our governance. Michael Harrisi provides some critical theoretical pointers on what governance is and why it is so important:

“Governance is not government… [Government] refers to the group of men and women who hold office at any particular time, the policies they pursue and the decisions that they make. Governance on the other hand, goes beyond the functions of government and refers primarily to the relationship between the people and their government and to how this relationship affects and is affected by, the processes by which governments make their policies and decisions and seek to implement them... Good governance does not guarantee good government but good government is not possible in the absence of good governance”.

Harris speaks of 4 pillars of good governance:

1. Information ‐ the right to a free press and transparency 2. Consultation ‐ structures which allow citizens to express their views in

a systematic manner on issues affecting them 3. Participation – direct engagement of people in the processes of

government such as a more empowered form of local government 4. Accountability – the exercise of oversight and control

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Constitutional reform must take account of these pillars so that the architecture of governance is strengthened. People’s participation must be shaped so that citizens assume responsibility as easily and as equally as they exercise rights. Social Alongside governance, the construction of identity is a matter of grave urgency. Listening to recent news on Nigeria where Muslim extremists have declared war on both the state and Christians we see a sad example of what happens when sectarian identities supercede national identity. We all inhabit multiple tribes ‐ political, religious, social etc but there must be an overarching and inclusive affiliation which constitutes our elemental identity. In St Lucia, each of us is SLP or UWP or no P; we are Catholic or Adventist or Evangelical; we are Rotary or Mothers & Fathers or some other group. But none of these associations, by themselves, define us. In an ideal democratic environment, it is our NATIONAL identity that provides the all‐embracing marker that should bind us all. The question we must ask ourselves is whether the nation state in the Caribbean is capable of forging such an identity in the age of facebook? And this issue is directly related to the arithmetic of elections that we earlier explored. We are in grave and present danger of allowing our political and (to a lesser extent) religious tribal affiliations to direct our national identity. The Caribbean Heads of Government defined in 1997 the characteristics of the Ideal Caribbean Person but it is regrettable that this philosophical statement has not been appropriated by our education systems, our governance structures, and our agencies of civil society as the guiding signpost towards a Caribbean civilization. The following graphics depict the construction of our key identities showing how the predominance of a particular affiliation will provide distinctive texture to our expressed identity. This is not an abstraction – we can think of particular individuals whom we know who illustrate by their words and in their deeds the identity types depicted here. The Lucian Nationalist for example is someone whose affiliation of national identity is far stronger than their political allegiance or their religious association or their sense of Caribbeanness. More often this

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identity type is found outside of St. Lucia – and is strongest among persons who faced with their otherness in the Diaspora, find refuge in nationalist expressions of identity as a zone of comfort and validation. The Partisan Lucian places the greatest valuation on the political tribe and is most forceful in their expression of nationalism when their party is in power – so their recognition of and participation in national events (Independence etc) correspond to the cycles of tribal ascendency.

Economic On the economic front, Leon and Smithii (2011) at the First Caribbean Roundtable on Development asserted that:

“For Caribbean economies to realize growth with equity, we have to reframe our thinking about growth, and we must recalibrate our socio‐political‐economic strategies in the context of global competitiveness. A holistic approach to growth requires strong

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policies for macroeconomic stability, a proactive effort to foster competitiveness against global partners, a social agenda that can be communicated and received as reasonably fair, if not equitable, and a governance structure to engender trust and respect authority. The imperative to act is urgent; the question is do governments and the people of the region have the will to see this through in a timely manner?”

It should be noted that Gene Leon is Resident Representative for the IMF in Jamaica (and, I might add, a St. Lucian economist of the highest distinction). The prescription being proposed addresses the three domains that I referenced earlier in a formula that speaks to growth + equity + a recalibrated political‐social and economic strategy; contextualized with competitiveness. Employment and sustainable livelihoods are the keys to development and equity in the Caribbean today. As the economic crisis deepens in the OECD countries, addressing unemployment and creating jobs of lasting value will be an increasing challenge for small vulnerable economies such as ours. The reality of the challenge is conveyed in the following statistics from the St. Lucia Government Statistics Department:

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Between 2001 and 2010, our population increased at a rate of 5% but the labour force increased by 15%. A positive note was the increased participation of women in the labour force which largely accounted for the increase in the Labour Force Participation Rate from 61.5% to 67.8%. The matter of grave and urgent concern is the unemployment rate which increased in 2010 to 20.6% ‐ a total of 17,607 persons outside the rhythm of productive activity. Why must we address the large unemployment problem? For many reasons:

Work is the foundation of society, family and self worth ‐ 17,000+ unemployed persons means 17,000+ individuals who have no legitimate means of earning a living

Providing employment is to broaden our economy with more hands at work, increased production and a bigger national pie. It is to create an earning capacity for the 17,000+ who will enter the cash economy, buying food, clothing and other goods and services

Conversely 17,000+ unemployed is 17,000+ individuals locked out of the economy and a large potential pool that sooner or later will be drawn to take by force what they can’t earn with pride.

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These are the basic reasons why our private sector must see the issue of job creation as a critical element of doing business and why they must play a proactive partnership role. Removing unemployment is expanding demand in the market, it is reducing the incentive for crime, and it is creating sustainable growth. Of course it is not quite as easy and simple as this ‐ because the jobs created must be productive, they must add value to the economy it they are to be sustainable. But I have deliberately engaged in this simplification so that we keep the big picture and the essential principles in mind. The 2010 Census provides an instructive picture of the configuration of employment in St. Lucia which highlights why the solution to solving unemployment must involve a far stronger relationship between Government and the Private Sector (including the self employed). 77% of the employment in this country is provided by the Private Sector; 18% by the Public Service and 5% by the civic sector. This brings into question the assumption of overemployment in the public sector – undoubtedly there is room for rationalization and efficiencies but the ratio of private sector to public sector employment is not as distorted as popular opinion believes. The next level of analysis of this data would be to examine the type of employment and determine whether the majority of these jobs represent sustainable livelihoods. What are the factors likely to affect these jobs in the future? Does our job type profile show an economy geared for 21st Century growth or are we standing on the shifting sands of jobs on their way to obsolescence? My argument centers on what we need to do to address the knowledge, skills and attitude requirements to empower that 17,000+ not simply to find but to create and to keep jobs in a volatile globalized economic climate. In other words, how do we educate for today and tomorrow? How do we reposition that army of the unemployed for more sustainable job possibilities in niche areas of the global economy and how do we educate our children so that they grow up secure and confident in the assertion of their Caribbean identity but thinking and acting globally?

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We can only begin to frame answers to such questions from a clear and rational understanding of exactly who is the population of St. Lucia and how that population is segmented. We are fortunate to have one of the most advanced Departments of Statistics in the Caribbean headed and staffed by professionals who are widely respected in the region and beyond for the quality of the data collection and analysis that they undertake. But that data intelligence must be utilized for the purposes of a better understanding of our population trends and characteristics and their implications for tomorrow which must be addressed today. If we are to put our people at the center of the development agenda, then it must start from a clear understanding of the multiple complexions of the St. Lucian populace and the needs which must be addressed. Allow me to skip some of the more basic population indicators such as size of population, age composition etc to delve into particular elements of its composition which carry deep implications for how we shape our survival and developmental options (and I wish to also express my indebtedness to my esteemed colleague Edwin St. Catherine for assisting with the excavation of these facts): How do we earn?

Women’s participation in the labour force has inceased in the past decade

As indicated earlier, the private sector is the engine of employment in St. Lucia providing 77% of the jobs, the public sector 18% and the civic sector 5%. Within the private sector job cluster the self employed made up 31%.

In the past decade there has been a drastic decline in employment in the agricultural sector (dropping from 22% in 1994‐2000 to 12% in 2007) and in manufacturing from 10% to 6%.

On the other hand, construction related employment increased from 9% to 13% and tourism from 9% to 12%.

St Catherine (2011) identifies some other details which imply strong policy interventions:

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These indicators suggest vital strategic initiatives which need to be addressed if we are to improve our survival chances and become competitive. The imperatives include:

Equal pay for equal work legislation to remove discrimination of women;

The shaping and implementation of public sector reform as an urgent challenge of modernization in consultation with the public sector unions. That this sector employs the most professionals and technicians suggests that the introduction of efficiency and effectiveness measures on current levels of employment could have a major impact on the conduct of government business and the satisfaction of citizens

A review of other service sectors which provide significant employment for professionals and semi‐professionals (such as ICT and professional services) to determine what is required to increase opportunity in these areas while nudging them to more tertiary levels of operation (e.g. from data entry operations to applications development).

Joint strategies with the private sector to upskill in the large employment sectors (e.g. agriculture and construction) to increase productivity and output particularly where they can impact import substitution or foreign exchange earning.

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The Challenge of poverty

The interconnectedness of factors that translate social vulnerability to crime and disease must be taken into account in shaping our survival options. A starting point is the convergence of data available from the census and from a multitude of studies to infuse these strategies with multisectoral breadth and depth.

The poverty map of St. Lucia brings together in a Geographic Information System format the available data on poverty level and other social indicators for all communities in St Lucia.

The converging of these data sets – poverty, demographics, infrastructure – will provide unquestionable indications of what needs to be done where, with whom, for whom and how. The envied success of countries like Singapore and Finland are not the outcome of hit and miss policy but the consequence of well conceived social and economic engineering and strategizing. We have the tools and the

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human capacity to define our own destiny in our own image and likeness instead of slavishing seeking to mimic, import and replicate.

All of the poverty reports consistently identify Gros Islet and Castries as the districts of relative privilege – highest educational attainment, highest degrees of access to the internet, greatest density of computers within households and so on. Examination of the poverty map in more granular detail however reveals pockets of depravation such as Americ and Assou Canal in Gros Islet and Trou Rouge, Faux a Chaux and Bagatelle in Castries. The deeper excavation of the data confirms that Castries is a capital in urban decay... the population of Castries City and Castries suburban declined in the past decade by 66.5% and 28.6% respectively, while Castries rural increased by 62.5% ‐ the lure and the illusion of opportunity in the City.

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And

there is a remarkable consistency about the geography of disadvantage in St. Lucia. Whether viewed from the perspective of internet access:

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Or viewed from the perspective of educational level:

Juxtaposed against this disturbing picture of low attainment of higher education and the rural disadvantage is the hemorrhaging of the most educated at disproportionate levels:

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The brain drain which now constitutes a major human resource challenge for many developing economies will remain a permanent demographic tendency until we are able to provide sustainable opportunity and a quality of life that makes people want to remain or to return home. Caribbean policymakers are becoming increasingly conscious of the value and potential of the Caribbean Diaspora as focal points for penetration of metropolitan markets, as concentrations of patriotic goodwill and as an economic resource. Caribbean people have always been a migrant people and we must embrace the migration phenomenon as the connecting passage between individual ambition and collective progress. Far greater than the receipt of remittances is the potential for direct diasporic investment – a more dependable form of foreign direct investment. Indeed Sir Arthur once asserted that given a choice between domestic capital and foreign capital, our preference should always be the domestic investment and the Diaspora represents that native accumulation of foreign earnings that could move us from beggars to shapers of our own destiny. Associated with Sir Arthur’s call for the preferencing of domestic capital, is the contemporary necessity of aggressively supporting and promoting the entrepreneurial outliers in our Caribbean. There are an increasing number of

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indigenous Caribbean corporations that have, against all odds, transformed themselves into globally competitive enterprises. Here in St. Lucia we have Baron Foods which has gained regional and international recognition for the quality of its manufactured food products and which enjoys distributorships across the entire Caribbean as well as the US, Canada, Germany, the UK and France. Companies like SM Jaleel in Trinidad & Tobago with subsidiaries in five major Caribbean countries (Jamaica, Barbados, Surinam, Guyana, St. Lucia), but also in South Africa, India and Saudi Arabia. Their extensive marketing network spans 8 states in the US, 10 countries in Latin America, 10 provinces in Canada, 2 countries in Europe, 17 countries of the Caribbean and their products are sold in over 60 countries worldwide. The Jaleel example is also illustrative of the dynamic between competitiveness and innovation because this internationalization of operations would not have been possible without innovation – they were the first drinks manufacturer worldwide to can juices without preservatives using liquid nitrogen (1983) and they designed the lightest weight plastic bottle in the world (1993). And just this week in the news was the thrust by Rituals to open 50 Ritual Coffee Houses in India, and expansion into Nigeria, Guatemala, El Salvador and the United Arab Emirates. A major effort of Ministries of Trade in the region should be the facilitation and support to such entities and the integration of their production base with primary agricultural products grown in the region. 4 Humanresourcedevelopment(education+employment/entrepreneurship)theCOREelementofanystrategy... From the decade of the 70’s we have repeated the mantra that the most important thing in the development of a country is the development of its people but we have never undertaken an analysis of national development priorities from the empirical starting point of who are the people, what are their characteristics and what are their needs. The examination of the truths embedded in the 2010 national census should support the conclusion that Education is the CORE factor in development and that unless we address human capacity social and economic progress is hamstrung. Sir Christopher Ball put this succinctly:

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"the quality of the education and training of the workforce is the single most important characteristic in determining economic competitiveness. Though not by itself a sufficient condition, a world‐class workforce is certainly a necessary condition for national economic success. Learning pays ‐ and nothing much else does so, as we move towards the twenty first century."

An intense focus on the nexus between education, human resource development and employment/entrepreneurship is the core element in the integrated strategies that were first enunciated by Sir Arthur and echoed by a succession of St. Lucian economists including Leon already cited and then proposed by d’Auvergne with the Quadrant development plan under Sir John Compton. An underlying subtext of this discussion is that equity is essential – no society can survive and thrive without providing opportunity for all. Diffferent ideologies have taken divergent approaches to how this is to be achieved but it widely accepted that compensatory mechanisms are necessary. All of the census statistics that we have reviewed tonight cry out for equity – geographical equity, educational equity, job equity, equity in the provision of public goods and services. And in the sphere of education, there is a relationship of equity to quality. We cannot speak about quality without attending to equity. If we examine the statistics of performance in education anywhere in the Caribbean including St Lucia, we will find that social and economic disadvantage always work against performance… rural and poor is a real disadvantage and it takes an exceptional ability coupled with strong home support inspite of these hurdles to triumph.. that is why if we are serious about improving quality we must make equity a primary consideration. Interestingly one of the key architects of the successful transformation of education in Finland Pasi Sahlbergiii recently reported that in his view, the most important dimension of that effort was the emphasis on equity:

“Decades ago when the Finnish school system was badly in need of reform, the goal of the program that Finland instituted, resulting in so much success today, was never excellence. It was equity.”

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The configuration of the Ministry of Education with HRD and Labour makes the challenge of articulating this integrated human resource strategy and people focus easier and allows for the multi‐sectoral assault on inequity, low educational and inadequate skill levels. The essence of that challenge is summarized in this slide:

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5 Conclusion I want to conclude with a quotation from a facebook post by a young St. Lucian Loverly Sheridan who is destined for distinction – a world traveller and author. Her aspiration summarizes all what I have tried to say about our survival options:

“Throughout my travels and even as i´m living abroad, i´ve always maintained a great sense of pride as a Saint Lucian, and continue to find ways to uplift and showcase us as a people. We are truly a unique and beautiful people. As a child, i loved to read. It helped fuel my imagination… I want to get kids reading again. I want to make it fun, and help them to be able to identify with the characters in the book. I want them to have a sense of pride of who they are, and not feel like they have to seek it in other cultures. I can already see how we are losing our sense of who we are as a people. I want them to know that there is a whole world out there, and it is theirs to see and conquer. I want them to know that there are great schools not only in North America, but in China, Africa, India, Australia, Japan, and other places in the world. The opportunities are endless, if they are willing to apply and believe in themselves, work hard, and have faith. I want them to know that they are not limited to any space or place, or even their circumstance and that the world is evolved enough to accomodate and educate us all! I want them to dream knowing that their dreams can come true, and that they can achieve anything they set their minds to!”

Loverly’s impulse is that of a St. Lucian who has seen and is interpreting the wider world – like Walcott ‐ from the rooted comfort of her own culture and who wishes to share that understanding. Her elemental lesson is that the world is a global village with many pathways and that we are as beautiful and as capable as any who walk them. But ability to turn options into reality depends on the assuredness of our self‐awareness, the power of our dreams and the conviction of

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our aspirations. On this journey, we must be guided also by Naipaul’s ominous reminder that “the world is what it is; men who are nothing, who allow themselves to become nothing, have no place in it.” i Harris, M. “The Political Foundations of Economic Transformation” in Trinidad & Tobago Review, Dec 2011. Pp 12-13. ii Leon, H. And Smith, R. “Macroeconomic Stability and Growth with Equity.” Paper presented at First Caribbean Development Round Table, Trinidad & Tobago, Sept 13 2011. iii Partanen, A. “What Americans Keep Ignoring About Finland's School Success” in http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2011/12/what‐americans‐keep‐ignoring‐about‐finlands‐school‐success/250564/

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ST. LUCIA’S SURVIVAL OPTIONS

2012 Sir Arthur Lewis Memorial Lecture

Dr. Didacus JulesJanuary 2012

IMPACT OF GLOBALIZATION1.

2. ESSENTIAL CHALLENGES

IMPERATIVES & OPTIONS3.

HRD– THE CORE OPTION4.

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1. End of North Atlantic hegemony/Rise of Asia

2. Demographic change

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2. Demographic change

Over 1/2 of world ‘s

population lives in urban areas but account for

75% of global

energy consumption

and 80% of global

carbon emissions

Top 25 cities create more

than half of world wealth

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Population growth = increased pressure for resource exploitation

3. Eco‐system pressures

Violence + genocideRefugeesInstability and nuclear proliferation

4. Failed states

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Outsourcing models

Migrant labour

Borderless employment (e.g. cruise ship industry)

5. Globalization of Labour Markets

‐ Dr. Natacha Mortley 2012

The end of the North Atlantic hegemony/Rise of Asia

Demographic change

Ecosystem pressures

Failed States

Globalization of labour markets

1.

2.

3.

4.

4 Deep Drivers of Globalization +:

Sachs, Jeffrey (2007) The Future of Globalization http://www.academicearth.org/lectures/the‐future‐of‐globalization

5.

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A computer was something on TVFrom a sci fi show of note.A window was something you hated to cleanAnd ram was the cousin of goat.

Meg was the name of my girlfriendAnd gig was a job for the nights.Now they all mean different thingsAnd that really mega bytes.

An application was for employment.A program was a TV show.A curser used profanity.A keyboard was a piano.

Memory was something that you lost with age.A CD was a bank account.And if you had a 3 1/2" floppyYou hoped nobody found out.

Remember WhenA Poem About Technology

Compress was something you did to the garbageNot something you did to a file.And if you unzipped anything in publicYou'd be in jail for a while.

Log on was adding wood to the fire.Hard drive was a long trip on the road.A mouse pad was where a mouse lived.And a backup happened to your commode.

Cut you did with a pocket knife.Paste you did with glue.A web was a spider's home.And a virus was the flu

http://www.jamesshuggins.com/h/tek1/rememberwhen.htm

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The danger of the single story

http://www.ibm.com/smarterplanet/global/share/19jan2012/mobile_africa/

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http://www.ibm.com/smarterplanet/global/share/19jan2012/mobile_africa/

DO NOWFOR TODAYFOR TOMORROW

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POLITICAL

SOCIAL

ECONOMIC

“the absolute necessity to

promote and defend the solidarity and sovereignty of this regional Caribbean family and also the absolute obligation to discover those strategies which will

ultimately lead to unity of action in all major areas of our economic, social and political life”

Rt. Hon. Errol Barrow 1986

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“Advocates of the balanced growth alternative are also always advocates of political federation or unions of states; in the absence of such a political framework the criticism of growth via exports rests on unspoken and non‐existent alternatives”

‐ Sir Arthur Lewis – The Nobel Lecture 1979

"Sir Arthur Lewis ‐ Prize Lecture". Nobelprize.org. 23 Dec 2011 http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/1979/lewis‐lecture.html

26%

40%

29%

28%28%

35%

24%

19%

29%

26%

37%

33%

47%42% 43%

1992 1997 2001 2006 2011

SLP votes UWP votes Non voting

HISTORICAL VOTING PATTERNS 1992‐2011

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SLP votes UWP votes Non voting

50%46%

28%26%

43%

% votes cast % electorate

PARTICIPATION IN ELECTORAL PROCESS & PARTY SHARE

Jamaica turnout ‐just over 50%

Lowest since ‘49

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Governance on the other hand, goes beyond the functions of government and refers primarily to

the relationship between the people and their government and to how this relationship affects and is affected

by, the processes by which governments make their policies and decisions and seek to implement them

Harris

Multiple identities

Political

National

Caribbean

Social

Religious

THE IDEAL CARIBBEAN PERSON

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Multiple identities

Political

National

Caribbean

Social

Religious

THE LUCIAN NATIONALIST

Multiple identities

Political

National

Caribbean

Social

Religious

THE PARTY LOYALIST

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“For Caribbean economies to realize growth with equity, we have to reframe our thinking about growth, and we must

recalibrate our socio‐political‐economic strategies in the context of global competitiveness. A holistic approach to

growth requires strong policies for macroeconomic stability, a proactive effort to foster competitiveness against global partners, a social agenda that can be communicated and received as reasonably fair, if not equitable, and a governance

structure to engender trust and respect for authority. The imperative to act is urgent; the question is do governments and the people of the region have the will to see this through in a timely manner?”

Leon&Smith2011

Census Labour Force Indicators, 2001 and 2010

INDICATOR Census 2010 Census 2001

Household Population 165,595 157,775Household Population 15yrs & Over 125,717 109,246Labour Force 85,310 67,238Employed Labour Force 67,703 54,524Unemployed Persons 17,607 12,714Unemployment Rate 20.6% 18.9%% of Population Under 15 years 24.1% 30.5%Labour Force as a % of Household Population 51.5% 42.8%Labour Force Participation Rate 67.8% 61.5%

Source: Saint Lucia Population & Housing Census 2010

Population increase of 5%; labour force increase by 15%Increase in Labour Force Participation Rate from 61.5% to 67.8%, reflecting

increasing participation of women in the labour force

Number of persons Unemployed 17,606

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77%

18% 5%

Employment by Industry Group2007

Agriculture from 22% to 12%Manufacturing from 10% to 6%

�

Construction from 9% to 13%Tourism from 9% to 12%Other sectors from 50% to57%

�

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Private Sector Employment – Census 2010

32%

15%13%

9%

8%

18%

5%

Private Sector ‐ Rest

Private Sector ‐ W & R

Private Sector ‐ Hotels etc

Private Sector ‐ Construction

Private Sector ‐ Agriculture

Public Sector

Other

Census 2010 – Employment Facts

• The Sectors which employ the most professionals and technicians are the public administration sector 46%, Education and Health 80%

• Men are paid 10% more than women. Best paying sectors for men are ICT and Financial/Insurance Services and for women Education (Teachers)

• Important Service Sectors absorb large numbers of professionals and semi‐professionals, example, ICT, Real Estate, Professional Services

• Other sectors which are big employers such as Accommodation, Manufacturing, construction and agriculture where in excess of 15% of the sector is made up of employees with low skill levels, this is particularly true in the case of construction and Agriculture

• Agriculture has an especially low representation of professionals servicing it, since our brand of Agriculture is labour intensive but with much support services provided by the Government

© St Catherine (2011) St Lucia Population and Housing Census 2010 Results and Analysis

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Poverty map makes the case graphically

for prioritizing equity and balancing opportunity islandwide

Identification of pockets of poverty by community –targeted interventions

Gros Islet town

Americ

Assou Canal

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DISTRICTS

1991 2001 2010 Percentage Change: 1991 to 2001

Percentage Change: 2001 to 2010

Estimated Household Population



Castries 51,994 64,344 65,656 23.8 2

Castries City 12,439 4,173 ‐66.5

Castries Suburban 25,110 17,938 ‐28.6

Castries Rural 26,795 43,545 62.5

The changing dynamic of the Capital

urban flight = urban decay?

CastriesCity

CastriesSuburba

n

CastriesRural

Anse LaRaye

Canaries Soufriere Choiseul LaborieVieuxFort

Micoud DenneryGrosIslet

TotalIsland

2001 88.3 86.2 92.5 96.9 98.9 95.5 97.7 95.3 92.6 95.7 97.5 73.1 92.5

2010 64 66.4 65.6 79.5 86.8 79.7 81.8 77 73.3 75.7 80.2 52.1 73.5

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Percentage of households without internet connection by District 2001 vs 2010

2015 target


…an IT infrastructure issue…

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INTERNET YES NOConnectivity 26.5% 73.5%Access to internet 43.3% 56.7%Owns computer 38.6% 61.4%

• Internet is the superhighway of C21 – rural access an essential infrastructure

• Measures for increasing access to the internet without ownership of computer critical short term imperative


LEVEL OF EDUCATIONCastries

CityCastries

SuburbanCastries

RuralAnse La

RayeCanaries Soufriere Choiseul Laborie

Vieux Fort

Micoud Dennery Gros Islet Average

Percentage of Population 2010

Day care/Nursery 0.7 1.4 1.5 1.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.1 1.7 1.3

Pre-School 4.5 6.1 8.8 6.9 5.4 4.9 6.8 7.2 9.4 9.7 7.2 7.4 7.9

Pre-primary (Infant) or Primary

27.3 34.3 35.3 45.9 56.0 46.2 44.3 44.9 37.3 41.7 43.5 30.0 37.7

Lower/Junior Secondary/Senior Primary

10.8 8.6 7.0 7.0 5.7 8.1 7.4 9.3 8.7 7.7 9.2 6.7 7.6

Upper Secondary (Forms 4 & 5)

20.9 23.8 21.1 14.7 14.2 18.7 17.1 18.2 19.1 18.2 15.9 21.9 19.8

Post Secondary, Non-Tertiary 9.4 8.0 8.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.9 5.9 6.8 6.2 4.3 10.8 7.3

University/Tertiary (Bachelors) 4.3 2.6 3.0 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.9 1.6 1.3 5.6 2.7

University/Tertiary (Masters) 2.1 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 2.6 1.1

University/Tertiary (PhD) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.1

Other 2.2 1.2 1.3 0.8 1.3 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.8 1.2

None 9.5 6.4 7.6 12.9 9.0 10.1 14.4 9.5 11.6 9.3 12.3 6.2 8.9

Not Stated 8.2 7.0 5.2 3.9 2.1 4.6 2.0 1.5 2.9 2.7 4.0 5.1 4.4

Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Population by Highest Level of Formal Education and District, 2001 & 2010


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None5%

Primary23%

Secondary38%

Tertiary (non‐univ)21%

University8%

Other5%

8,463 Lucians migrated in last 10 years

28.3% with

higher education

38% with

secondary education

Inter-Census Emigrant Population by Education


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"the quality of the education and training of the workforce is the single most important characteristic in determining economic competitiveness. Though not by itself a sufficient condition, a world‐class workforce is certainly a necessary condition for national economic success. Learning pays ‐ and nothing much else does so, as we move towards the twenty first century."

Sir Christopher Ball

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“Decades ago when the Finnish school system was badly in need of reform, the goal of the program that Finland

instituted, resulting in so much success today,

was never excellence. It was equity.”Pasi Sahlberg (Finland)

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Primary Secondary Tertiary University

2001

2010

2020

Population by Highest Level of Formal Education 2010

45.3%

20%

37.7%

19.8%

7.3%

5.1%

50%

27.7%

10%3.9%

2.7%

15%

ECDCore primary competencies

Engaged pedagogyInstructional capacity

Adult Continuing Education & Opportunity

Entry/ foundation standards

QualityEquity

SALCC directionRationalization of sector

ACCESS: scholarshipsScholarships

Equity: disadvantaged accessLearning inputs

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"The world is what it is; men who are nothing, who allow themselves to become nothing, have no place in it.“

VS Naipaul (A Bend in the river)

St Lucia's Survival Options - Nobel Week 2012 Feature Address

Business

ofglobal energyuseand80

wholesystems change

memorywassometh youlostwithage