SSPPIICCCEE ESS · 2012. 3. 31. · Open Interest Volume Price Stock positions at the NCDEX accredited warehouses were at 2022 tonnes as on March 29, 2011 As per Spices Board data,

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Technical Recommendations

Commodity Exchange Contract Recommendation

Pepper NCDEX Apr-12 Sell in the range 40200-40300 TP 37900/36200 SL 42365

Jeera NCDEX Apr-12 Sell in the range 12230-12270 TP 11770 SL

12475

TMC NCDEX Apr-12 Trading Range: 4050 – 4340

Chilli NCDEX Apr-12 Buy above 5530 TP 5765/5900 SL 5340

Cardamom MCX Apr-12 Trading Range: 1120 – 1215

A w e e k l y f u n d a m e n t a l a n d t e c h n i c a l r e p o r t o n s p i c e s 31 March 2012

SSSPPPIIICCCEEESSS WWWEEEEEEKKKLLLYYY

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A w e e k l y f u n d a m e n t a l a n d t e c h n i c a l r e p o r t o n s p i c e s


Pepper

Review

Pepper prices witnessed huge fall on heavy long liquidation during lat week. Prices at future started the week slightly

positive note on taking recovery on previous losses but failed to sustain the gains and resumed down trend. Reports of

sluggish activity at spot front as most of the traders were busy with financial year closing further added to the down

side. Huge volatility witnessed in futures prices on speculative activities kept investors away from market which

further added to the down side. Therefore, on cues from spot activity futures remained down and ended the week on

negative note.

Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change Open Interest % ChangeApr-12 41400 42420 38020 38540 -7.05 25169 -33.33 4594 -21.54May-12 42500 43300 38470 39105 -7.55 7817 -10.15 2791 10.67Jun-12 43145 43740 39185 39650 -7.55 682 -26.11 277 6.13

Note: Prices are updated till 1:00 pm. On Saturday

Outlook

Pepper prices are expected to continue the down trend on back of prevailing weak global fundamentals. Rising arrivals

from Vietnam are likely to weigh on global pepper prices. According to trade sources, spot market is expected to

become active from 3rd April after financial closing. Therefore, resumed activity at spot front might support the prices

to recover from earlier losses. However, this recovery might remain short live as most of the overseas buyers are

staying away amid prevailing uncertainty in Indian prices. Indian parity in international pepper market has declined

but still it is higher from other origins which might keep prices under pressure.

Factors to watch out

Average daily prices at spot market of Kochi increased to `39,000 and `40,000 per quintal but in same week shaded

all gains and closed at `37,000 and `38,500 per quintal for Ungarbled and MG-1 grade respectively

Prices in all the major growing countries like Indonesia, India, and Sri Lanka fell drastically amid pick up in supplies

from Vietnam

As per exchange rules and regulations, additional margin of 5% from both long and short side will be reduced but

special margin of 10% wil imposed on all long side from April 3rd, 2012 which might have negative impact on prices

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000Pepper Spread : May - Apr

Contango




38500

40500

42500

44500

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000PVO Analysis - Pepper

Open Interest Volume Price

Stock positions at the NCDEX accredited warehouses were at 2022 tonnes as on March 29, 2011

As per Spices Board data, international price of pepper in New York market remained steady to $7.83 per kg during

the week ended March 23rd , 2012 but quoted higher against $5.69 per kg quoted in the same period last year

Pivot Point

Exchange Contract S3 S2 S1 Previous close R1 R2 R3Apr-12 32500 35260 36900 38540 41300 44060 45700May-12 32453 35462 37283 39105 42113 45122 46943Jun-12 33422 36303 37977 39650 42532 45413 47087

NCDEX

Derivative Analysis

The NCDEX Pepper April contract prices, volumes and

open interest are declining continuously that means

investors are exiting their positions which indicates a

weakness in market

Technical




Jeera

Review

Jeera prices traded witnessed huge volatility during the week ended on Mar. 31st. Futures started the week on negative

note extending the down trend. Huge arrivals amid peak arrival season along with subdued domestic and export

demand further added to the down side. However, sudden fall in arrivals supported the prices to recover from losses.

From Thursday market remained closed due to financial year closing which also cushioned prices. However, overall

trend remained weak at futures front and futures prices ended the week on slightly lower note.

Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change Open Interest % ChangeApr-12 11950 12270 11762.5 11940 -0.35 38973 -39.43 14469 -5.98May-12 12235 12580 12060 12237.5 -0.20 15465 -26.51 10143 6.99Jun-12 12320 12860 12300 12585 0.36 2358 1.55 876 60.96


Outlook

Jeera prices are projected to trade on lower note on back of prevailing sluggish demand across the spot markets.

Physical market traders are expecting a small recovery in prices on Monday as spot market will open after 4 days off.

On Other hand, farmers are likely to bring huge supplies to the market in anticipation of further fall in prices. Therefore,

prices are expected to trade on volatile note prevailing concerns. Nonetheless, overall trend is projected to remain

biased towards down side amid lack of bulk buying activity.


Arrivals at spot market of Unjha are hovering in the range of 22000-35000 bags against 38000-45000 bags reported

during previous week (1 bag= 60 Kg)

Despite the poor sowing progress in Syria and Turkey market activity is remaining weak amid arrival pressure

Indian jeera exports are increasing steadily but overall sentiments are still weak which might keep prices under

pressure

According to sources, till April arrivals pressure is likely to remain intact as production in current season is much

higher than previous 3-4 years ( 40-45 lakh bags production is estimated)

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jeera Spread : May - Apr

Contango




11500

12000

12500

13000

13500

0

3000

6000

9000

12000

15000

18000

PVO Analysis - Jeera


NCDEX accredited warehouse stocks were at 10124 tonnes as on March 29, 2011

As per Spices Board data, international price of jeera in New York market declined to $3.75 per kg during the week

ended march 23rd, 2012 however, against $3.84 per kg in the same period last year

Pivot Point


NCDEX

Derivative Analysis

The NCDEX jeera April contract prices, volumes and

open interest are declining continuously that means

investors are exiting their positions which indicates a

weakness in market

Technical




Turmeric

Review

NCDEX turmeric prices continued the downtrend on back of huge arrivals witnessed at domestic markets across the

countries. From starting of the week prices traded down in continuation of bearish trend. Poor buying interest from

both bulk buyers and exporters kept prices under pressure. However, later on futures took smart recovery on fresh

buying from local masla buyers ahead of market close but prices failed to sustain the gains. Farmers increased supplies

to the market which was resulted in prices fall. Therefore, on cues from spot market activities futures prices remain

down and ended the week on negative note.

Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change Open Interest % ChangeApr-12 4310 4348 4154 4190 -2.96 40750 -46.84 20015 0.58May-12 4390 4406 4232 4266 -2.69 17965 -52.53 14870 -1.26Jun-12 4496 4502 4276 4334 -4.07 4040 -26.01 5160 -1.71


Outlook

Turmeric prices are expected to witness smart recovery on lower level buying in absence of any cues from Spot market.

Spot market of Erode will be closed until 8th April. Therefore, no arrival pressure will be there which might support the

prices to recover. Traders are expecting during the 2nd week the prices may go up, as they will get fresh orders from

North India in the first week of April. However, concerns regarding increasing harvesting activity in major growing

regions of Tamil Nadu might limit huge gains.


As per trade sources, daily arrivals at spot market of Erode increased to 21,000 bags while selling remained 40-60%

of total arrivals (1bag=70Kg.)

Spot market of Erode will be closed from March 31 to April 8 for Erode Periya, Chinna and Vaikkal Mariamman

festivals

Spot market of Nizamabad and Sangli will resume trade activity from April 2nd onwards

NCDEX accredited warehouse stocks were at 2946 tonnes as on March 29, 2011

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100Turmeric Spread : May - Apr

Contango




4100

4300

4500

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000 PVO Analysis - Turmeric


As per Spices Board data, international price of Turmeric in New York market remained unchanged to $5.62 per kg

during the week ended March 23rd, 2011 lower from $5.29 per kg quoted in the same period last year

Pivot Point


NCDEX

Derivative Analysis

The NCDEX Turmeric April contract prices and

volumes have declined while open interest have

increased, It is a good indication that a sharp rally

against downtrend will develop creating a sell point

for downtrend.

Technical




Chilli

Review

Chilli prices witnessed small recovery during lat week after falling continuously for 3 weeks. Futures started the week

on positive note taking recovery on lower level buying. However, later on prices reversed the trend and witnessed

corrections amid sluggish spot market activity. Due to financial year closing most of the market players stayed away

from market Therefore, on cues from spot activity, futures prices traded in a range bound manner and ended the week

on flat to slightly positive note.

Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change Open Interest % ChangeApr-12 5372 5528 5340 5436 0.70 8325 -40.85 6465 -2.85Jun-12 5742 5914 5734 5796 -0.03 2685 -36.97 3680 8.88Jul-12 6010 6148 5962 6000 0.33 240 65.52 175 66.67


Outlook

Chilli prices are expected to trade in a range bound to positive note in absence of any fresh cues at spot market.

According to trade source, overall trend is very subdued at spot market amid rise in mercury levels which is hampering

market activity. However, a small recovery on short covering can be seen during the week but this recovery might not

sustain due to poor domestic and export front demand. From May onwards spot market will be closed for 1 month due

to peak summer month therefore, spot market of Guntur might witness huge arrivals which might keep prices under

pressure.


Arrivals at spot market of Guntur are hovering in the range of 60,000 - 80,000 bags (1 bag=40Kg.)

As pr data released by spices Board, Chilli exports from Apr-11 to Jan-12 were reported at 1,69,500 tones down by

17% Y/Y

Chilli production estimates for this season is estimated around 12.5-13 lakh tonnes v/s 10.5- 11 lakh tones last year

NCDEX accredited warehouse stocks were at 1760 tonnes as on March 22 2011

350

370

390

410

430

450Chilli spread : Jun - Apr

Contango




5200

5400

5600

5800

-400

800

2000

3200

4400

5600

6800

8000PVO Analysis - Chilli


As per Spices Board data, international price of chilli in New York market declined to $3.20 per kg during the week

ended March 16th, 2011 down against $3.64 per kg quoted in the same period last year

Pivot Point

Exchange Contract S3 S2 S1 Previous close R1 R2 R3Apr-12 5153 5247 5341 5436 5529 5623 5717Jun-12 5535 5635 5715 5796 5895 5995 6075Jul-12 5739 5851 5925 6000 6111 6223 6297

NCDEX

Derivative Analysis

The NCDEX chilli April contract prices have increased

while volumes and open interest are falling, that means

market is running out of traders willing to open or hold

an open long/buy. Traders are liquidating both loosing

short positions & closing winning long positions.

Technical

Chilli prices have taken a support from primary trend-line and ended in a marginally positive zone on W-o-W basis.

During the week prices open on a

weaker note by continuing its privileged

trend, but staged a strong support from

raising trend line prices ended up by 1%

from last week’s closing prices.

According to daily continuation chart

5530 levels are witnessing a strong

resistance on higher side any sustainable

close above the will extend the rally

towards the next resistance of 5765

which is also coincides with 38.2%

Fibonacci levels of the previous fall,

starts from 6464 to 5340 levels.

However, on the downside 5340 levels

act as an immediate support fill below

the same will dampen our bullish view and intact the bearish trend for near-term perspective.




Cardamom

Review

Cardamom futures witnessed huge losses on profit booking at higher levels during the week ended on Mar. 31st. From

opening on the session prices remain under pressure. Declining prices at spot front also weighed on sentiments.

However, arrivals at spot auctions continuously declined which limited losses later in the week. However, overall trend

remained bearish later on amid long liquidation due to financial year closing. Thus, on cues from spot activity futures

prices traded slightly up towards the end of the week but failed to recover from the losses and ended on negative note.

Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change Open Interest % ChangeApr-12 1235 1240 1129.2 1170.4 -4.81 51004 -45.27 3894 -32.65May-12 1347 1359 1258.5 1317 -1.83 21610 -27.89 3398 56.73Jun-12 1115 1347 1114.5 1347 -2.22 3026 -32.69 632 -6.76


Outlook Cardamom futures are expected to recover in coming week on back of declining arrivals across the spot markets.

According to traders, prevailing dryer weather is creating concerns for next season crop and might delay the cultivation

activities. Demand from exporters is also expected to pick after financial year closing which might support cardamom

prices to trade up.


Arrivals Daily auction has declined to 40-53 tonnes while average prices hovered in the range of Rs. 712-935 per

Kg.

Total Arrival during lat week was reported around 2,50,301 Kg. against 4,73,682 Kg. down by 47% W/W

As pr data released by spices Board, cardamom exports from Apr-11 to Jan-12 were reported at 3,900 tones up by

391% Y/Y

Total arrivals during the current season from August 1, 2011 to March 11, 2012 was at 14,264 tonnes and the sales

at 13,848 tonnes as against 7,684 tonnes of arrivals and 7,499 tonnes sales in the same period last year

MCX warehouse stocks of Cardamom as on March 30, 2011 were 26.8 tonnes

50

70

90

110

130

150

170Cardamom Spread : May - Apr

Contango




1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

1000

4000

7000

10000

13000

16000

19000

22000

25000PVO Analysis - Cardamom


As per Spices Board data, international price of Cardamom in Saudi Arabia market improved to $26.67 per kg

during the week ended March 23rd , 2011; however, it was lower than $27.87 per kg quoted in the same period

last year

Pivot Point


NCDEX

Derivative Analysis

The MCX cardamom April contract prices, volumes

and open interest have declined, that means

investors have sold their positions and now any

change in prices on positive side might reverse the

trend for short term.

Technical




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SSPPIICCCEE ESS · 2012. 3. 31. · Open Interest Volume Price Stock positions at the NCDEX accredited warehouses were at 2022 tonnes as on March 29, 2011 As per Spices Board data,

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