Mary Yamada DOE SSL Technology Development Workshop November 17, 2016 Associate Director Navigant Consulting, Inc. SSL Market Adoption: Status and Trends
Mary Yamada DOE SSL Technology Development Workshop
November 17, 2016 Associate Director
Navigant Consulting, Inc.
SSL Market Adoption: Status and Trends
2
Navigant has conducted several market analyses for the U.S. DOE Solid-State Lighting (SSL) Program…
2000 2016
LED Market Studies
Adoption of LEDs in Common
Lighting Applications
(2008, 2011, 2013, 2015)
Lighting Market
Characterization
(2002, 2012)
Energy Savings Forecast of SSL
(2003, 2006, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016)
3
Where Have We Been and Where Are We Now?
Source: http://eatsleeppublish.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/past-present.jpg
4
U.S. Lighting Installed Stock by Technology, 2010-2015
Energy efficiency standards, as well as increasing adoption of LEDs, are causing rapid change in lighting stock, however, there is still a long way to go…
5
2015 U.S. LED Installed Penetration
INNOVATORS EARLY ADOPTERS EARLY MAJORITY LATE MAJORITY MAIN STREAM
EXIT SIGNS
DIRECTIONAL
SMALL DIRECTIONAL
BUILDING EXTERIOR
REFRIGERATOR CASE DISPLAY
TRAFFIC SIGNALS
100%
50%
25%
10% 5%
LINEAR FIXTURES
A-TYPE LOW/HIGH BAY
DECORATIVE
PARKING LOT
PARKING GARAGE
AREA/ROADWAY
Insta
lled B
ase P
enetr
ation (
%)
6
Installed Penetration (%) Commercial Residential Industrial Outdoor
None 68% 86% 94% 41%
Dimmer 3% 11% 4% <1%
Daylighting <1% <1% <1% 39%
Occupancy 6% <1% 2% <1%
Timer 4% <1% <1% 20%
Energy Management System (EMS) 15% <1% <1% <1%
Multi-Strategy 4% <1% <1% <1%
Connected Lighting <1% <1% <1% <1%
2015 U.S. Installed Penetration of Lighting Controls
In 2015, about 18% of lighting systems in the U.S. operate with controls.
7
Lighting Market Model Overview
Source: http://www.cartoonstock.com/directory/p/philosophise.asp
8
Lighting Market Model Overview
Major inputs, modules and analytical flow of the lighting market model are shown below:
Lighting Performance
Lighting Price
Hours of Use
Logit Potential
Acceptance Factor
Efficiency Standards
Technology Diffusion
Lighting & Control Stock
Renovations & Growth
Lighting Failures
Initial Stock
Per Control Savings
Energy Use - No SSL
Energy Use - SSL Scenario
Control Use Baseline
Load Profile Energy Effect
Energy Savings
9
Lighting Market Model Overview
15 Lighting
4 Controls
The lighting market model considers adoption across:
Incandescent Incandescent
Reflector Halogen
CFL Reflector CFL Pin T5
Metal Halide High Pressure
Sodium Mercury Vapor
Halogen Reflector
CFL
T8 T12
4 Sectors
8 Submarkets
For the following lighting and control systems:
10
Lighting Control Definitions
This year, the lighting market model was updated to forecast the impact from several types of control systems:
• Single Strategy Traditional dimming, daylighting, occupancy, or timers are implemented individually.
• Multi-Strategy A combination of two, three, or four of the traditional control types implemented together.
• EMS Allows control of lamps and luminaires within a single building. All four traditional control strategies are implemented.
• Connected All four traditional control strategies are implemented. Additional energy savings based on communication between connected lamps and luminaires, as well as use optimization.
11
How Is the Market Predicted to Change?
Source: http://www.calvin.edu/chimes/2015/04/30/new-model-improves-hurricane-predictions/
12
SSL Lighting Market Model Scenarios
LED installed stock and energy use is forecasted based on two scenarios:
Scenarios Description Connected Lighting Assumptions
Current SSL Path
The expected future path for LEDs given continuation of current SSL investment and effort from DOE and industry stakeholders.
Penetration rate is similar to occupancy sensors, resulting in a slow adoption.
DOE SSL Program Goals
The future path for LEDs given DOE goals are met, representing the ultimate potential of what DOE has determined is technically feasible in the given time frame.
Penetration rate follows the same trajectory of LEDs, resulting in accelerated adoption.
13
With current levels of SSL investment, LEDs are expected to rise such that 78% and 9% of installed stock in 2035 are non-connected and connected LEDs, respectively.
Installed Stock Forecast – Current SSL Path
14
If the DOE goals are met and efforts to advance connected lighting are successful, connected LEDs are expected to increase to 24% of installed stock in 2035.
Installed Stock Forecast – DOE SSL Program Goals
15
Both connected lighting and traditional control systems are expected to thrive. However, connected lighting represents the majority of the future savings from lighting controls.
Installed Stock Forecast – Lighting Controls
16
Where Are the Energy Savings?
Source: https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/4d/01/15/4d01156238d5b14c67716095df3bfc2c.jpg/
17
33
By 2035, LED lighting is forecasted to reduce annual U.S. energy consumption by as much as 5.1 quads.
LED Energy Savings Forecast
Million Homes
18
LED Energy Savings Forecast
Million Homes
Connected Lighting represents 1/3
of annual 2035 LED energy savings.
45
By 2035, LED lighting is forecasted to reduce annual U.S. energy consumption by as much as 5.1 quads.
19
Energy Savings Opportunities for LED Lighting
Linear Fixture
Decorative
Low/High Bay
Other
Directional
Building Exterior
Area/Roadway
Parking Lot
Garage
Due to the unique usage characteristics in each lighting application, the opportunities for LED installations and energy savings vary significantly.
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Ava
ila
ble
No
n-L
ED
In
sta
lla
tio
ns
(M
illio
n U
nit
s)
LED 2015 Installed Stock Penetration
A-Type
0
0
20
Energy Savings Opportunities for LED Lighting
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Ava
ila
ble
No
n-L
ED
In
sta
lla
tio
ns
(M
illio
n U
nit
s)
LED 2015 Installed Stock Penetration
A-Type
Linear Fixture
Decorative
Low/High Bay
Other
Directional
Building Exterior
Area/Roadway
Parking Lot
Garage
Although linear fixture, low/high bay and outdoor applications are only one-fifth of all available installations, they represent 65% of the 2035 LED energy savings.
0
0
21
Industry Acknowledgements
Northeast Energy Efficiency Partnerships Efficiency Vermont
National Grid City of San Jose, Transportation Department
Digital Lumens SSLS, Inc.
AEP Ohio RAB Lighting Inc.
Philips GE Lighting
Lutron Enlighted
Leviton Acuity Brands
Cree Vistar Energy Consulting
WattStopper Eversource
Lutron Eaton
Enlighted Cree
Southern California Edison Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
22
Contact Information & Links
Mary Yamada
Associate Director, Navigant
DOE SSL Program, Market Studies
http://energy.gov/eere/ssl/market-studies
23
Questions?
Source: https://www.ipromedia.us/the-best-it-solutions-for-southern-businesses/