National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation Spring 2018 Marketer/Supplier Teleconference Friday, March 16, 2018 AGENDA 2:00 pm Welcome and Introduction Dave Wolford 2:05 pm Operational Update Dave Wolford 2:20 pm Capacity Update Bob Michalski 2:30 pm Rates & Regulatory Update Mike Novak o Federal Regulatory Update o NY Regulatory Update o PA Regulatory Update 2:50 pm General Discussion All 3:00 pm Closing Dave Wolford
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Spring 2018 MASTER...Spring 2018 Marketer/Supplier Teleconference Friday, March 16, 2018 AGENDA 2:00 pm Welcome and Introduction Dave Wolford 2:05 pm Operational Update Dave Wolford
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National Fuel Gas Distribution CorporationSpring 2018 Marketer/Supplier Teleconference
Friday, March 16, 2018
AGENDA
2:00 pm Welcome and Introduction Dave Wolford
2:05 pm Operational Update Dave Wolford
2:20 pm Capacity Update Bob Michalski
2:30 pm Rates & Regulatory Update Mike Novak
o Federal Regulatory Updateo NY Regulatory Updateo PA Regulatory Update
2:50 pm General Discussion All
3:00 pm Closing Dave Wolford
National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation
Spring 2018 Marketer/Supplier Teleconference
Operational Update
Presentation by: Dave Wolford
March 16, 2018
NFGDC Spring 2018 Marketer
Teleconference1
Transportation Customers
STAND-ALONE CUSTOMERS
AGGREGATION CUSTOMERS
TOTAL NFGDC 126,087
MONTHLY (MMT) –
New York 1
Pennsylvania 0
DAILY (DMT) –
New York 0
Pennsylvania 79
TOTAL 80
New York (STBA) 95,165
New York (DMT) 35
Pennsylvania (MMNGS) 3,300
Pennsylvania (SATS) 27,507
TOTAL 126,007
NFGDC Spring 2018 Marketer
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0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000M
ar-
12
Ma
y-1
2
Ju
l-12
Sep
-12
No
v-1
2
Jan
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
l-13
Sep
-13
No
v-1
3
Jan
-14
Ma
r-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Ju
l-14
Sep
-14
No
v-1
4
Jan
-15
Ma
r-1
5
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
l-15
Sep
-15
No
v-1
5
Jan
-16
Ma
r-1
6
Ma
y-1
6
Ju
l-16
Sep
-16
No
v-1
6
Jan
-17
Ma
r-1
7
Ma
y-1
7
Ju
l-17
Sep
-17
No
v-1
7
Jan
-18
Ma
r-1
8
Nu
mb
er
of
Cu
sto
mers
National Fuel Gas DistributionNY STBA Enrollment
Residential
Non-Residential
Total
NFGDC Spring 2018 Marketer
Teleconference3
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000M
ar-
12
Ma
y-1
2
Ju
l-12
Sep
-12
No
v-1
2
Jan
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
l-13
Sep
-13
No
v-1
3
Jan
-14
Ma
r-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Ju
l-14
Sep
-14
No
v-1
4
Jan
-15
Ma
r-1
5
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
l-15
Sep
-15
No
v-1
5
Jan
-16
Ma
r-1
6
Ma
y-1
6
Ju
l-16
Sep
-16
No
v-1
6
Jan
-17
Ma
r-1
7
Ma
y-1
7
Ju
l-17
Sep
-17
No
v-1
7
Jan
-18
Ma
r-1
8
Nu
mb
er
of
Cu
sto
mers
National Fuel Gas DistributionPA SATS Enrollment
Residential
Non-Residential
Total
NFGDC Spring 2018 Marketer
Teleconference4
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000M
ar-
12
Ma
y-1
2
Ju
l-12
Sep
-12
No
v-1
2
Jan
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
l-13
Sep
-13
No
v-1
3
Jan
-14
Ma
r-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Ju
l-14
Sep
-14
No
v-1
4
Jan
-15
Ma
r-1
5
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
l-15
Sep
-15
No
v-1
5
Jan
-16
Ma
r-1
6
Ma
y-1
6
Ju
l-16
Sep
-16
No
v-1
6
Jan
-17
Ma
r-1
7
Ma
y-1
7
Ju
l-17
Sep
-17
No
v-1
7
Jan
-18
Ma
r-1
8
Nu
mb
er
of
Cu
sto
mers
National Fuel Gas DistributionPA MMNGS Enrollment
TotalResidentialNon-Residential
NFGDC Spring 2018 Marketer
Teleconference5
80.3
91.2
99.9
94.6 89.9
91.9
41.6
46.9 51.9
49.4 47.5 46.8
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
BC
FNEW YORK
12 Month Totals(Through December 2017) Throughput Transported
NFGDC Spring 2018 Marketer
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39.5
45.2
49.9
46.3 44.4
45.5
21.3
25.3
28.3 26.0 25.3
26.2
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
BC
FPENNSYLVANIA12 Month Totals
(Through December 2017) Throughput Transported
NFGDC Spring 2018 Marketer
Teleconference7
119.7
132.2
151.7 144.9
129.4
134.7
62.5
70.1
81.1 77.1
70.7 72.1
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
BC
FNFGDC YEARLY DELIVERIES
12 Month Totals(Through December 2017) Throughput Transported
NFGDC Spring 2018 Marketer
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51.8% 51.4% 52.0% 52.2% 52.9%51.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17
NYTRANSPORTATION PERCENTAGE
OF 12 MONTH DELIVERIES
NFGDC Spring 2018 Marketer
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53.9%56.1% 56.7% 56.1% 56.9% 57.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17
PATRANSPORTATION PERCENTAGE
OF 12 MONTH DELIVERIES
NFGDC Spring 2018 Marketer
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52.2% 53.0% 53.4% 53.2%54.7% 53.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17
NFGDC TRANSPORTATION PERCENTAGE
OF 12 MONTH DELIVERIES
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Marketer/Supplier Operations Support• NFGDC provides a full range of business tools and support services:
• Meet daily delivery requirements (DDQs) to serve
market
• Manage storage inventories
– Required end of month storage inventory percentages
are minimums, not targets
• Deliver upstream supplies at primary firm or acceptable
alternate delivery points
• Customer usage and local production estimates need to
be as accurate as possible
NFGDC Spring 2018 Marketer
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New York & Pennsylvania Operations
• Daily Delivery Quantities (DDQs)
– DDQs are customer usage estimates based on usage history,
weather forecasts, actual measurement
• Production Daily Quantities (PDQs)
– PDQs are estimates of local production based on production
volume history
• Market Pool and Production Pool operators are
responsible for monitoring actual flowing volumes
and adjusting DDQs and PDQs via TSS
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NFGDC Spring 2018 Marketer
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Pipeline Critical Notices are Important
• NFGDC reminds ESCO’s to consider their business and regularly review the appropriate pipeline notices.– Subscribe to receive emails of critical notices from each pipeline
that they operate on.
– Review & assess potential impacts on their business
– Contact the appropriate pipeline for notice clarification
– Contact NFGDC for assistance
• To receive critical notice emails directly from:– NFG Supply- Email request to [email protected] with
“Critical Notice” as the subject.
– TGP- Update DART user setting in “Business Preferences” to receive email notifications.
NFGDC Spring 2018 Marketer
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Pennsylvania DMT Operations
• REMINDER: National Fuel provides PA DMT pool operators, and requesting
customers, with official notification of instances of missing or incomplete
customer telemetered readings via the daily Customer Transportation
Statements (CTS).
– The following statement appears at the bottom of each CTS:--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NOTE:WHEN 'USAGE EST.' IS SHOWN UNDER THE STMT BASIS COLUMN ON THIS REPORT, IT IS THE MARKET
POOL OPERATOR'S RESPONSIBILITY TO OBTAIN A 10:00 A.M. READ DIRECTLY FROM THE CUSTOMER. THIS
READ SHOULD BE E-MAILED TO [email protected]. THIS IS A PA GTOP REQUIREMENT.---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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SYSTEM MAINTENANCE ORDERS
* TO MAINTAIN SYSTEM OPERATIONAL INTEGRITY *
SYSTEM ALERT
OFO
UNAUTHORIZED OVERRUN
CURTAILMENT
NFGDC Spring 2018 Marketer
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Operational Update
Winter 2017 – 2018(Gas days inclusive)
• System Alerts – 2 Cold Weather
• December 23 – January 7
• January 13-16
– 5 DDQ Averaging
• November 4-6, 23-27
• December 22-26
• January 6-8
• February 17-20
• OFOs– 2 Under-delivery
• January 1 (NY Only) (Voluntary Curtailment)
• January 5-6
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
National Fuel Heating Degree Days (HDD)
Buffalo, NY - 2017-2018
Actual HDD 12 AM - 12 PM Normal HDD (NOAA 1981-2010) Forecast Accuweather HDD Mar 13 - Mar 31
Actual HDD
November 2017 2.6% CTN
December 2017 12.8% CTN
January 2018 0.9% CTN
February 2018 15.3% WTN
March 2018 (est.) 7.8% CTN
Winter HDD through 3-12-18
0.3% CTN
Peak Delivery Day
January 5th (Fri)
63 HDD
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0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
National Fuel Heating Degree Days (HDD)
Cumulative Buffalo, NY - 2017-2018
Actual HDD Winter 2017-18 Normal HDD (NOAA 1981-2010)
Forecast HDD Winter 2017-18 (Accuweather) Actual HDD Winter 2013-14 (Coldest in 74 Years)
Actual HDD Winter 2011-12 (Warmest in 74 Years)
0.3% Colder through 3/12/18
12.4% Colder through 3/12/14
18.2% Warmer through 3/12/12*
* The normals used for Winter 2011-12 are based off of NOAA 1971-2000 data.
Peak Delivery Day
January 5th (Fri)
58 HDD
NFGDC Spring 2018 Marketer
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
National Fuel Heating Degree Days (HDD)
Erie, PA - 2017-2018
Actual HDD 12 AM - 12 PM Normal HDD (NOAA 1981-2010) Forecasted Accuweather HDD Mar 13 - Mar 31
Winter HDD through 3-12-18
0.4% CTN
Actual HDD
November 2017 2.0% CTN
December 2017 11.6% CTN
January 2018 3.0 % CTN
February 2018 17.5% WTN
March 2018 (est.) 10.3% CTN
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0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
National Fuel Heating Degree Days (HDD)
Cumulative Erie, PA - 2017-2018
Actual HDD Winter 2017-18 Normal HDD (NOAA 1981-2010)
Forecast HDD Winter 2017-18 (Accuweather) Actual HDD Winter 2013-14 (4th Coldest in 64 Years)
Actual HDD Winter 2011-12 (Warmest in 64 Years)
0.4% Colder through 3/12/18
14.3% Colder through 3/12/14
18.9% Warmer through 3/12/12*
* The normals used for Winter 2011-12 are based off of NOAA 1971-2000 data.
Questions?
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National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation
Spring 2018 Marketer/Supplier Teleconference
Capacity Update
Presentation by: Bob Michalski
March 16, 2018
NFGDC Spring 2018 Marketer
Teleconference1
Discussion Topics
New York
Supplier Transportation Balancing and Aggregation (STBA)
• Mandatory Upstream Transmission Capacity (MUTC)
• Intermediate NFGSC ESS Capacity
Pennsylvania
Small Aggregation Transportation Supplier (SATS)
• Released Transmission Capacity (RTC)
• Intermediate NFGSC ESS Capacity
2NFGDC Spring 2018 Marketer
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NY STBA Capacity
Serves Requirements for up to 62 HDD
67% MUTC – Change Effective April 2018
Released at Weighted Average Cost of Capacity (WACOC)
• 30% NFGSC ESS, released at maximum rate
• 70% Upstream Pipeline Capacity, released at a rate, that blended
with the ESS component, achieves the WACOC rate:
– Tennessee Gas Pipeline (TGP) Zone 4 to Rose Lake
– Dominion Energy Transmission, Inc. (DETI) – North Point to Ellisburg
33% Intermediate ESS Capacity
Released at maximum rate
3NFGDC Spring 2018 Marketer
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4
MUTC Upstream Capacity Releases
Change effective April 2018:
Release TGP Z4-Z4 path up to 34,000 Dth/day until
fully allocated. If requirement exceeds 34,000
Dth/day, then a proportional mix of both contracts will
be released instead:
• TGP Z4-Z4 – 34,000 Dth/day – 71%
• DETI North Point to Ellisburg - 14,000 Dth/day – 29%
NFGDC Spring 2018 Marketer
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NY STBA Capacity
5
Enduser
NFGDC
Local
Production
ESS
Capacity
30%
ESS
Capacity
70%
Pipeline
Capacity
NFGSC EFT CapacityNFGDC
transportation
MUTC: 67% Intermediate
Capacity: 33%
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NY MUTC WACOC & Release Rates
Date WACOC WACOC Change
Since Apr 2012
ESS Max
Rate/Dth
TGP Release
Rate/Dth
Apr 2012 $10.8359 - $4.1649 $11.9219
Apr 2013 $10.5102 (3%) $4.4947 $11.4895
Apr 2014 $9.8099 (10%) $4.4817 $10.6773
Apr 2015 $9.4025 (13%) $4.4817 $10.2709
Apr 2016 $10.045 (7%) $4.3924 $11.0425
Apr 2017 $9.4851 (12%) $4.3032 $10.3996
Apr 2018* $8.6190 (20%) $4.4765** $10.3944**
* Pro-forma
** May 2017, ESS increased from 15% to 30%, TGP reduced from 85% to 70%
6NFGDC Spring 2018 Marketer
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PA SATS Capacity
Serves Requirements for up to 62 HDD
Capacity mix – Change Effective August 2018:
• 46% RTC - TGP released at WACOC
• 54% Intermediate ESS released at max rate
7NFGDC Spring 2018 Marketer
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PA SATS Capacity
8
86% 14%
TGP ESS
Capacity Capacity
Enduser
54%
ESS
Capacity
46%
TGP
Capacity
NFGSC EFT Capacity NFGDC Capacity
NFGDC Spring 2018 Marketer
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PA SATS TGP Release Rate
Date TGP Release Rate/Dth* Change
Aug 2012 $14.9823 -
Aug 2013 $13.8762 (7%)
Aug 2014 $11.7962 (21%)
Aug 2015 $10.1388 (32%)
Aug 2016 $9.6257 (36%)
Aug 2017 $9.5746 (36%)
Aug 2018** $9.5548 (36%)
* PA TGP Release Rate = PA WACOC Rate.
** 1307(f) Compliance Rate/Dth
9NFGDC Spring 2018 Marketer
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Questions?
NFGDC Spring 2018 Marketer
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National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation
Spring 2018 Marketer/Supplier Teleconference
1
Rates & Regulatory Update
Presentation by: Michael Novak
March 16, 2018
NFGDC Spring 2018 Marketer
Teleconference
National FuelRates & Regulatory Update
Federal Update
NFGDC Spring 2018 Marketer
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Pipeline Rate Events
• Several pipelines have filed various tracker filings with changes to become effective 4/1/2018; most of these deal with fuel retention or other routine surcharges.
• RP18-298 et al. – Columbia CCRM Tracker
– In addition to CCRM costs, Columbia’s filing included the impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
• RP18-415 - Industry Petition for Initiation of Show Cause Proceedings Directed To Interstate Natural Gas Pipelines and Storage Companies.
• RM18-11 - Interstate and Intrastate Natural Gas Pipelines; Rate Changes Relating to Federal Income Tax Rate
• RP18-449 – NFGSC Reorganization of Appalachian Pooling Zones.
• PR18-29 – NFGDC Application to Amend FERC Order 63 Rates effective 2/12/2018.
Rates & Regulatory UpdatePennsylvania Update
2018 Annual 1307(f) filing
• Status Update– Exhibits were filed January 2018.– Tariff and Testimony were filed February 2018.– No major non-gas cost tariff initiatives are being bundled with 1307F filing.
• Filing Highlights – proposed rate* changes:– MMT from $0.2600 to $0.2500– SATC from $0. 2774 to $0.2379– PSB from $1.1190 to $1.1571– SB from $0. 5334 to $0.5544– DTR [Oct. $0.01 to $0.00, Nov. $0.48 to $0.36, Dec $0.75 to $0.60, Jan $0.59 to $0.49 & Feb $0.49 to $0.24]
– RTC from $9. 5989/Dth to $9. 5548/Dth (weighted avg. demand cost of upstream capacity)
• Implementation to be effective August 1, 2018
* Relative to currently effective rates. All rates $/mcf except as noted.
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Rates & Regulatory UpdatePennsylvania Update
Pennsylvania GTOP
– GTOP Version 2.80 was filed on 3/1/2018
• Revisions to implement updated procedures providing producers with the ability to
enter displacement meter index readings online through a secure web site upon
execution of a System Administrator Security Process Agency Agreement.
• Addition of the Standard Form Agreement for the System Administrator Security
Process Agency Agreement to the GTOP appendices.
• Check General Producer & Supplier Postings web page:
Case 15-M-0127 - In the Matter of Eligibility Criteria for Energy Services Companies
2/23/2016 - PSC issues Order Resetting Retail Energy Markets and Establishing Further Process (“Reset Order”);
• For gas customers with consumption less than 750 Mcf/year, the order extended the general provisions set forth in 12-M-0476 for APP Customers to all mass-market (residential and small non-residential) customers.
12/2/2016 – PSC issues Notice of Evidentiary and Collaborative Tracks and Deadline for Initial Testimony and Exhibits.
1/19/2018 – ALJ issues Ruling on Schedule and Procedure.
• Testimony and Rebuttal have been provided and Hearings have concluded.
• March 30, 2018 Initial Briefs Due
• April 30, 2018 Reply Briefs Due
NFGDC Spring 2018 Marketer
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Rates & Regulatory UpdateNew York Update
New York GTOP
• GTOP Version 2.80 was filed on 2/15/2018– Updates to capacity paths available and operating provisions associated with the
Company's Mandatory Upstream Transmission Capacity ("MUTC") program.– Revisions to implement updated procedures providing producers with ability to
enter displacement meter index readings online through a secure web site upon execution of a System Administrator Security Process Agency Agreement
– Addition of the Standard Form Agreement for the System Administrator Security Process Agency Agreement to the GTOP appendices.
– Check General Producer & Supplier Postings web page: https://nationalfuelgas.com/marketers/ProducerSupplierPostings/ProducerSupplierPostings.aspx
for updates on implementation schedule and instruction.
• The next GTOP filing is planned for later this year.– Addition of provisions/agreement regarding Renewable Natural Gas (RNG).
Otherwise, no Distribution-initiated tariff changes affecting STBA service are
anticipated, however….
NFGDC Spring 2018 Marketer
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Rates & Regulatory UpdateOFO Update
January 2018 National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation OFOs
• On 1/1/2018, Distribution (NY) issued an Operational Flow Order (OFO) in
response to National Fuel Gas Supply Corporation’s Critical Notice declaring
a force majeure event related to the Emergency Shutdown Event at its
Ellisburg Station.
• On 1/5-6/2018, Distribution (NY & PA) issued an Underdelivery OFO in
response to forecasted colder than normal weather.
• Invoices to ESCOs containing non-performance penalties were issued on
March 6, 2018.
NFGDC Spring 2018 Marketer
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Distribution thanks Suppliers that undertook actions to
satisfy their delivery obligations during the 1/1/2018 event.
This contributed to maintaining overall system reliability.