Spreadsheet 1 - Definition of Zones Zone Postcode Local Authority Zone 1 LE10 0 Hinckley and Bosworth LE10 1 Hinckley and Bosworth Zone 2 LE10 2 Hinckley and Bosworth LE10 3 Rugby / Hinckley and Bosworth / Blaby Zone 3 CV11 6 Nuneaton and Bedworth / Rugby Zone 4 LE9 8 Hinckley and Bosworth CV13 6 Hinckley and Bosworth Zone 5 LE9 9 Hinckley and Bosworth / Blaby CV13 0 Hinckley and Bosworth Zone 6 LE9 7 Hinckley and Bosworth / Blaby Zone 7 LE9 3 Blaby LE9 4 Blaby / Harborough LE9 6 Harborough Notes: (1) The predominant local authority in each zone is highlighted in bold (ie.the local authority in which the majority of the area of the zone is located).
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Spreadsheet 1 - Definition of Zones · Spreadsheet 2 - Population Projections Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 All Zones Total Population 2007 30,874 17,113 17,432
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Spreadsheet 1 - Definition of Zones
Zone Postcode Local Authority
Zone 1 LE10 0 Hinckley and Bosworth
LE10 1 Hinckley and Bosworth
Zone 2 LE10 2 Hinckley and Bosworth
LE10 3 Rugby / Hinckley and Bosworth / Blaby
Zone 3 CV11 6 Nuneaton and Bedworth / Rugby
Zone 4 LE9 8 Hinckley and Bosworth
CV13 6 Hinckley and Bosworth
Zone 5 LE9 9 Hinckley and Bosworth / Blaby
CV13 0 Hinckley and Bosworth
Zone 6 LE9 7 Hinckley and Bosworth / Blaby
Zone 7 LE9 3 Blaby
LE9 4 Blaby / Harborough
LE9 6 Harborough
Notes:
(1) The predominant local authority in each zone is highlighted in bold (ie.the local authority in which the majority of the area of the zone is located).
Spreadsheet 2 - Population Projections
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 All Zones Total
Population 2007 30,874 17,113 17,432 13,728 13,586 11,722 18,254 122,710
Population 2011 31,450 17,432 17,653 13,984 13,839 11,941 18,573 124,872
Population 2016 32,175 17,834 17,959 14,307 14,158 12,216 18,637 127,286
Population 2021 33,003 18,293 18,263 14,675 14,522 12,531 18,588 129,876
Population 2026 33,980 18,835 18,516 15,109 14,952 12,902 18,617 132,911
NOTES:(1) Population multipliers derived from East Midlands Regional Assembly's draft RSS growth estimates (October 2006) and ONS 2004 Population Projections.(2) The population multiplier has been calculated for the predominant local authority in each zone (highlighted in bold in Spreadsheet 1) and has been applied to the total population within that zone.
Year Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7
£ £ £ £ £ £ £
2004 2,927 3,087 3,049 2,907 3,023 2,800 3,231
2007 3,331 3,513 3,469 3,308 3,440 3,186 3,677
2011 3,957 4,173 4,122 3,930 4,086 3,785 4,368
2016 4,907 5,175 5,112 4,874 5,068 4,694 5,417
2021 6,086 6,419 6,340 6,044 6,286 5,822 6,718
2026 7,548 7,961 7,863 7,496 7,796 7,221 8,332
NOTES:(1) Source:All data derived from MapInfo 2004 per capita annual comparison goods expenditure estimates.(2) The 2004 MapInfo expenditure data have been projected forward to the base year(2007) and forecast years (2011, 2016, 2021 and 2026) using the MapInfo forecast growth rate of 4.4% per annum (please note that the MapInfo forecast ends at 2016, but in the absence of longer-term forecasts we continue this 4.4% per annum forecast to 2026). The source for the growth rates is MapInfo/OEF Information Brief 06/2 (Table 2).
All monetary values are held constant at 2004 prices.
Spreadsheet 4 - Total Comparison Goods Expenditure & Expenditure Growth
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 All ZonesTotal
Year £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m
Sub total 2007 102.83 60.11 60.48 45.41 46.73 37.35 67.11 420.03
Deduction for SFT at 0.00% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total 2007 102.83 60.11 60.48 45.41 46.73 37.35 67.11 420.03
Sub total 2011 124.44 72.74 72.76 54.95 56.55 45.20 81.12 507.76
Deduction for growth in SFT since 2007 of 3.67% 4.57 2.67 2.67 2.02 2.08 1.66 2.98 18.63
Total 2011 119.87 70.07 70.09 52.94 54.48 43.54 78.14 489.12
Sub total 2016 157.89 92.30 91.80 69.73 71.75 57.35 100.95 641.77
Deduction for growth in SFT since 2007 of 4.07% 6.43 3.76 3.74 2.84 2.92 2.33 4.11 26.12
Total 2016 151.46 88.54 88.07 66.89 68.83 55.01 96.84 615.65
Sub total 2021 200.86 117.42 115.78 88.70 91.28 72.95 124.88 811.87
Deduction for growth in SFT since 2007 of 4.07% 8.17 4.78 4.71 3.61 3.72 2.97 5.08 33.04
Total 2021 192.68 112.64 111.07 85.09 87.57 69.98 119.80 778.83
Sub total 2026 256.48 149.94 145.58 113.27 116.56 93.16 155.12 1030.11
Deduction for growth in SFT since 2007 of 4.07% 10.44 6.10 5.93 4.61 4.74 3.79 6.31 41.93
Total 2026 246.04 143.83 139.66 108.66 111.82 89.37 148.80 988.18
Growth in total expenditure 2007 - 2011 17.04 9.96 9.61 7.52 7.74 6.19 11.03 69.09
Growth in total expenditure 2011 - 2016 31.59 18.47 17.98 13.95 14.36 11.47 18.70 126.53
Growth in total expenditure 2016 - 2021 41.22 24.10 23.01 18.20 18.73 14.97 22.95 163.18
Growth in total expenditure 2021 - 2026 53.36 31.19 28.59 23.57 24.25 19.38 29.01 218.23
NOTES:(1) The figures in the above table are the products of mutliplying the data presented in Spreadsheet 2 (population) by Spreadsheet 3 (per capita comparison goods expenditureand are in millions of pounds (£m).(2) For 2007 we have made no deduction for Special Forms of Trading (SFT) from the base expenditure, as the survey results presented in Spreadsheets 5 and 6 already take expenditure on SFT into account. The household survey found that in 2007, 8.33% of total expenditure on comparison goods is spent via the Internet, Mail Order or Catalogue (SFT). We anticipate that expenditure on SFT will increase year on year to 12.0% in 2011, and to 12.4% by 2016 (figures taken from Table 6.2 of Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 2.3D). Since an allowance of 8.33% (derived from the survey results) has already been made for SFT in Spreadsheets 5 to 10, the deductions outlined above reflect only the incremental increase in expenditure on this type of retail.
All monetary values are held constant at 2004 prices.
Spreadsheet 5 - Comparison Goods Spending Patterns in 2007 as a Percentage Across the Study Area Zones
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7
% % % % % % %
Inside catchment area
Zone 1
Hinckley Town Centre 44.06 40.86 2.37 33.76 14.87 27.29 17.08
TOTAL 102.83 60.11 60.48 45.41 46.73 37.35 67.11 420.03 100.0%
NOTES:(1) The spending patterns are calculated by multiplying the total comparison goods expenditure in 2007 (Spreadsheet 4) by the market share (Spreadsheet 5). The figures in the 'Total' column are the sum of the expenditure attracted to each centre/store from each zone.(2) The 'All zones market share' is calculated through dividing the total expenditure attracted by each centre by the total expenditure in the study area.
All monetary values are held constant at 2004 prices.
Spreadsheet 7 - Comparison Goods Spending Patterns in 2011 Across the Study Area Zones
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Total (1)
All Zones Market
Share (2)
£m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m %
Inside catchment area
Zone 1
Hinckley Town Centre 52.82 28.63 1.66 17.87 8.10 11.88 13.34 134.31 27.5%
TOTAL 119.87 70.07 70.09 52.94 54.48 43.54 78.14 489.12 100.0%
NOTES:(1) The spending patterns are calculated by multiplying the total comparison goods expenditure in 2011 (Spreadsheet 4) by the market share (Spreadsheet 5). The figures in the 'Total' column are the sum of the expenditure attracted to each centre/store from each zone.(2) The 'All zones market share' is calculated through dividing the total expenditure attracted by each centre/store by the total expenditure in the study area.
All monetary values are held constant at 2004 prices.
Spreadsheet 8 - Comparison Goods Spending Patterns in 2016 Across the Study Area Zones
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Total(1)All Zones
Market
Share(2)
£m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m %
Inside catchment area
Zone 1
Hinckley Town Centre 66.74 36.18 2.09 22.58 10.23 15.01 16.54 169.37 27.5%
TOTAL 151.46 88.54 88.07 66.89 68.83 55.01 96.84 615.65 100.0%
NOTES:(1) The spending patterns are calculated by multiplying the total comparison goods expenditure in 2016 (Spreadsheet 4) by the market share (Spreadsheet 5). The figures in the 'Total' column are the sum of the expenditure attracted to each centre/store from each zone.(2) The 'All zones market share' is calculated through dividing the total expenditure attracted by each centre/store by the total expenditure in the study area.
All monetary values are held constant at 2004 prices.
Spreadsheet 9 - Comparison Goods Spending Patterns in 2021 Across the Study Area Zones
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7
Total (1)
All Zones Market
Share(2)
£m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m %
Inside catchment area
Zone 1
Hinckley Town Centre 84.90 46.03 2.63 28.73 13.02 19.10 20.46 214.87 27.6%
TOTAL 192.68 112.64 111.07 85.09 87.57 69.98 119.80 778.83 100.0%
NOTES:(1) The spending patterns are calculated by multiplying the total comparison goods expenditure in 2021 (Spreadsheet 4) by the market share (Spreadsheet 5). The figures in the 'Total' column are the sum of the expenditure attracted to each centre/store from each zone.(2) The 'All zones market share' is calculated through dividing the total expenditure attracted by each centre/store by the total expenditure in the study area.
All monetary values are held constant at 2004 prices.
Spreadsheet 10 - Comparison Goods Spending Patterns in 2026 Across the Study Area Zones
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Total (1)
All Zones Market
Share (2)
£m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m %
Inside catchment area
Zone 1
Hinckley Town Centre 108.42 58.77 3.31 36.68 16.62 24.39 25.41 273.61 27.7%
TOTAL 246.04 143.83 139.66 108.66 111.82 89.37 148.80 988.18 100.0%
NOTES:(1) The spending patterns are calculated by multiplying the total comparison goods expenditure in 2026 (Spreadsheet 4) by the market share (Spreadsheet 5). The figures in the 'Total' column are the sum of the expenditure attracted to each centre/store from each zone.(2) The 'All zones market share' is calculated through dividing the total expenditure attracted by each centre/store by the total expenditure in the study area.
All monetary values are held constant at 2004 prices.
Spreadsheet 11a - Summary of Capacity for Comparison Goods Base Scenario A (Static Retention Rate 32%)
Year Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7
£ £ £ £ £ £ £
2004 1,610 1,685 1,599 1,600 1,647 1,571 1,713
2007 1,654 1,731 1,643 1,644 1,692 1,614 1,760
2011 1,714 1,794 1,702 1,704 1,754 1,673 1,824
2016 1,793 1,876 1,781 1,782 1,834 1,749 1,907
2021 1,875 1,962 1,862 1,863 1,918 1,829 1,995
2026 1,961 2,052 1,947 1,949 2,006 1,913 2,086
NOTES:(1) Source from MapInfo 2004 per capita annual convenience goods expenditure estimates.(2) The 2004 MapInfo expenditure data have been projected forward to the base year (2007) and forecast years (2011, 2016, 2021 and 2026) using the MapInfo forecast growth rate of 0.9% per annum (please note that the MapInfo forecast ends at 2016, but we continue this 0.9% per annum forecast to 2026). The source for the growth rates is MapInfo/OEF Information Brief 06/02 (Table 2).
All monetary values are held constant at 2004 prices.
Spreadsheet 13 - Total Convenience Goods Expenditure and Expenditure Growth
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 All ZonesTotal
Year £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m
Sub total 2007 51.1 29.6 28.6 22.6 23.0 18.9 32.1 205.9
Deduction for growth in SFT since 2007 at 0.00% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 2007 51.1 29.6 28.6 22.6 23.0 18.9 32.1 205.9
Sub total 2011 53.9 31.3 30.1 23.8 24.3 20.0 33.9 217.2
Deduction for growth in SFT since 2007 at 2.21% 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.7 4.8
Total 2011 52.7 30.6 29.4 23.3 23.7 19.5 33.1 212.4
Sub total 2016 57.7 33.5 32.0 25.5 26.0 21.4 35.5 231.5
Deduction for growth in SFT since 2007 at 2.51% 1.4 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.9 5.8
Total 2016 56.2 32.6 31.2 24.8 25.3 20.8 34.7 225.7
Sub total 2021 61.9 35.9 34.0 27.3 27.9 22.9 37.1 247.0
Deduction for growth in SFT since 2007 at 2.51% 1.6 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.9 6.2
Total 2021 60.3 35.0 33.2 26.7 27.2 22.3 36.2 240.8
Sub total 2026 66.6 38.7 36.1 29.4 30.0 24.7 38.8 264.3
Deduction for growth in SFT since 2007 at 2.51% 1.7 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.6 1.0 6.6
Total 2026 65.0 37.7 35.2 28.7 29.2 24.1 37.9 257.7
Growth in total expenditure 2007 - 2011 1.7 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.0 6.5
Growth in total expenditure 2011 - 2016 3.5 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.5 13.3
Growth in total expenditure 2016 - 2021 4.1 2.4 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.5 15.1
Growth in total expenditure 2021 - 2026 4.6 2.7 2.0 2.0 2.1 1.7 1.7 16.9
NOTES:(1) The figures in the spreadsheet are the products of mutliplying the data presented in Spreadsheet 2 (population) by Spreadsheet 12 (per capita convenience goods expenditure) and are in millions of pounds (£m).(2) For 2007 we have made no deduction for Special Forms of Trading (SFT) from the base expenditure, as the survey results presented in Spreadsheets 14 and 15 already take expenditure on SFT into account. The household survey found that in 2007 3.99% of total expenditure on convenience goods is spent via the Internet (SFT). We anticipate that expenditure on SFT will increase year on year to 6.2% in 2011, and to 6.5% by 2016 (figures taken from Spreadsheet 6.2 of Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 2.3D). Since an allowance of 3.99% (derived from the survey results) has already been made for SFT in Spreadsheets 14 to 19, the deductions outlined above reflect only the incremental increase in expenditure on this type of retail.
All monetary values are held constant at 2004 prices.
Spreadsheet 14 - Convenience Goods Spending Percentage in 2007 Across the Study Area Zones
TOTAL 51.06 29.62 28.63 22.56 22.99 18.92 32.12 205.90 100.0%
NOTES:(1) The spending patterns are calculated by multiplying the total convenience goods expenditure in 2007 (Spreadsheet 13) by the market share (Spreadsheet 14). The figures in the 'Total' column are the sum of the expenditure attracted to each centre/store from each zone.(2) The 'All zones market share' is calculated through dividing the total expenditure attracted by each centre/store by the total expenditure in the study area.
All monetary values are held constant at 2004 prices.
Spreadsheet 16 - Convenience Goods Spending Patterns in 2011 Across the Study Area Zones
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Total(1)
TOTAL 52.72 30.58 29.39 23.30 23.73 19.53 33.13 212.38 100.0%
NOTES:(1) The spending patterns are calculated by multiplying the total convenience goods expenditure in 2011 (Spreadsheet 13) by the market share (Spreadsheet 14). The figures in the 'Total' column are the sum of the expenditure attracted to each centre/store from each zone.(2) The 'All zones market share' is calculated through dividing the total expenditure attracted by each centre by the total expenditure in the study area.
All monetary values are held constant at 2004 prices.
Spreadsheet 17 - Convenience Goods Spending Patterns in 2016 Across the Study Area Zones
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Total (1)
TOTAL 56.23 32.62 31.17 24.85 25.31 20.83 34.66 225.68 100.0%
NOTES:(1) The spending patterns are calculated by multiplying the total convenience goods expenditure in 2016 (Spreadsheet 13) by the market share (Spreadsheet 14). The figures in the 'Total' column are the sum of the expenditure attracted to each centre/store from each zone.(2) The 'All zones market share' is calculated through dividing the total expenditure attracted by each centre/store by the total expenditure in the study area.All monetary values are held constant at 2004 prices.
Spreadsheet 18 - Convenience Goods Spending Patterns in 2021 Across the Study Area Zones
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Total (1)
TOTAL 60.32 34.99 33.15 26.66 27.15 22.35 36.15 240.78 100.0%
NOTES:(1) The spending patterns are calculated by multiplying the total convenience goods expenditure in 2021 (Spreadsheet 13) by the market share (Spreadsheet 14). The figures in the 'Total' column are the sum of the expenditure attracted to each centre/store from each zone.(2) The 'All zones market share' is calculated through dividing the total expenditure attracted by each centre/store by the total expenditure in the study area.
All monetary values are held constant at 2004 prices.
Spreadsheet 19 - Convenience Goods Spending Patterns in 2026 Across the Study Area Zones
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Total(1)
TOTAL 64.96 37.68 35.15 28.70 29.24 24.07 37.86 257.66 100.0%
NOTES:(1) The spending patterns are calculated by multiplying the total convenience goods expenditure in 2026 (Spreadsheet 13) by the market share (Spreadsheet 14). The figures in the 'Total' column are the sum of the expenditure attracted to each centre/store from each zone.(2) The 'All zones market share' is calculated through dividing the total expenditure attracted by each centre/store by the total expenditure in the study area.
All monetary values are held constant at 2004 prices.
Spreadsheet 20a - Summary of Capacity for Convenience Goods Base Scenario A (Static Retention Rate 70%)