PowerPoint Presentation
Jim Spohrer (IBM)Berkeley , CA USA ESW Conference Friday April
8,
2016http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/spohrer-esw-20160408-v4
4/8/161
Engineering Grand Challenges & Solving Them (with a little
help from the future: our very polite cognitive mediators)
For permission to reuse contact [email protected]
Reference:Spohrer, J (2016) Keynote: Engineering Grand
Challenges & Solving Them (with a little from the future: our
very polite cognitive mediators). Engineers for a Sustainable
World: Design-Educate-Build, Berkeley, CA USA. Friday April 8,
2016.URL
http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/spohrer-esw-20160408-v41
Thank-you to Wendy Murphy!4/8/16 IBM UPWard 2016
2
4/8/16 IBM UPWard 2016
3
Grand Challenges4/8/16 IBM UPWard 2016
4
$5M Prize: for best AI to help uson societal grand challenge
problems4/9/16 IBM UPWard 2016
5
Better Building Blocks4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 6
Todays talk will explore two questionsWhat should we know how to
make?What might programming education become?
If we look at history we see a time when people could make only
simple things, and often a single person could make them.
Would it ever be possible for a single person to know and make
complex things? And what role might programming education play?
Will the cognitive era the coming era of smart machines make
people more capable or less capable to know and make complex
things?6
What can one person know and make?4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward
University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development
7
No single person can make a pencil it is too complex. A design
student did try to make a toaster and if you have not seen the TED
Talk, I encourage you to watch it it is very funny.
Toaster Project:
http://www.ted.com/talks/thomas_thwaites_how_i_built_a_toaster_from_scratch?language=en
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I,_Pencil
"I, Pencil" is written in the first person from the point of
view of a pencil. The pencil details the complexity of its own
creation, listing its components (cedar, lacquer, graphite,
ferrule, factice, pumice, wax, glue) and the numerous people
involved, down to the sweeper in the factory and the lighthouse
keeper guiding the shipment into port.
7
4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide
accelerating regional development 8
Brief History of Knowledge and Making: Personbyte and
Peoplebyte
Cesar Hidalgo of MIT Media Lab talks about Personbyte and
Peoplebyte knowledge what a single person can know and make
(personbyte), and what a population of people can know and make
(peoplebyte). The growth of knowledge and the ability to make more
and more complex things (1) what a person can make - fire, (2) what
a city of people can make buildings, (3) what a factory can make
complex products, (4) what global networks can make huge
things.
MIT Media Lab Youtube: Networks Understanding Networks, Pt. 1:
Welcome by Nicholas Negroponte, Joi Ito, and Csar Hidalgo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mwIjcv7OWMo
8
4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide
accelerating regional development 9Future of Skills
4/8/1610
195519751995201520352055
The weakest link is what needs to be improved according to
system scientists. Accessing help, service, experts is the weakest
link in most systems.
By 2035 the phone may have the power of one human brain by 2055
the phone may have the power of all human brains.
Before trying to answer the question about which types of
sciences are more important the ones that try to explain the
external world or the ones that try to explain the internal world
consider this, slide that shows the different telephones that I
have used in my life. I grew up in rural Maine, where we had a
party line telephone because we were somewhat remote on our farm in
Newburgh, Maine.
However, over the years phones got much better. So in 2035 or
2055, who are you going to call when you need help?10
4/8/16 IBM UPWard 2016
11
4/8/16 IBM UPWard 2016
12What might Reality 2.0 look like?
What exists in 2016?4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 13
360,000100,000120,00060,000150,000
Many intelligent assistants or cognitive assistants are
beginning to appear. (the numbers indicate approximate number of
employees at each companuy).
More and more companies are working on cognitive assistants and
each month a new company shows up working on their version of an
intelligent personal assistant.
Make no mistake, like magnetism the company the can first
provide all its employees with intelligent personal
assistants/cognitvie assistants will have done something quite
historic!
Prediction 1 more than half of the Forbes Global 2000, and
equally many new startups, will have cognitive assistant projects
for their customers within ten yearsPrediction 2 by 2035 we will be
symbiotic with our cognitive assistantsPrediction 3 by 2055 (in
part due to the coaching of our cognitive coaches) an average adult
will have the ability to rapidly rebuild from scratch societal
infrastructure
Source:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligent_personal_assistant
13
Computing: Then, Now, Projected4/8/1614
20352055
If Moores Law continues, by 2035 and by 2055, we are projected
to have unimaginably large amounts of cheap computing. 2035 one
human brain level, and by 2055 all human brains level(10 billion
people).
Based on Kurweils graph of how much compute power $1000 will
buy, it seems that by 2030, for $1000 you should be able to buy the
compute power of one persons brain, and that by 2060 for $1000 you
should be able to buy the computer power of 10***10, or 10B people,
the compute power of the worlds population for $1000.
Source:http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html
Was Moores Law
inevitable?http://kk.org/thetechnium/was-moores-law/
14
4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide
accelerating regional development 15
Modhas Brain - Goal 1KW and 2 Litres.
Dharmendra Modha and his design for a brain chip playing
pong:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQ3HEVelBFYhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tqeINGOzIZohttps://twitter.com/dharmendramodha/status/545693986149511168
15
4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide
accelerating regional development 16
How fast is Reality 2.0 approaching?4/8/1617
What might it look like?
Source URL: Mother Jones -
http://www.motherjones.com/media/2013/05/robots-artificial-intelligence-jobs-automation17
The best way to predict the future is to inspire the next
generation of students to build it better
Digital Natives
Transportation
Water
Manufacturing
Energy
Construction
ICT
Retail
Finance
Healthcare
Education
Government
By 2036, there will be an accumulation of knowledge as well as a
distribution of knowledge in service systems globally. We need to
ensure as there is knowledge accumulation that service systems at
all scale become more resilient. Leading to the capability of rapid
rebuilding of service systems across scales, by T-shaped people who
understand how to rapidly rebuild knowledge has been chunked,
modularized, and put into networks that support rapid
rebuilding.18
The Maker Movement & Open Source Ecology4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM
Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development 19
Open Source Ecology is one branch of the Makers Movement with
the goal of making it easier for individual to make the industrial
machines most needed in civilization
Open Source Blueprints for Civilization. Build Yourself.Were
developing open source industrial machines that can be made for a
fraction of commercial costs, and sharing our designs online for
free. The goal of Open Source Ecology is to create an open source
economy an efficient economy which increases innovation by open
collaboration.
Source: http://opensourceecology.org/19
By 2036, T-Shaped Makers with great Building Blocks and
Cognitive Mediators4/8/1620
Empathy & Teamwork sectorregion/culturediscipline
DepthBreadthSTEMLiberal Arts
Source: http://tsummit.org20
Brief History of AI1956 Dartmouth Conference1956 1981
Micro-Worlds1981 Japanese 5th Generation1988 Expert Systems
Peak1990 AI Winter1997 Deep Blue1997 2011 Real-World2011 Jeopardy!
& SIRI2013 Cognitive Systems Institute2014 Watson Business Unit
& True North Brain Chip2015 Cognition as a Serviceon IBM
Bluemix
4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide
accelerating regional development21
Cognitive Assistants for all occupations are beginning to
appear4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide
accelerating regional development22
4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide
accelerating regional development 23
Cognitive Assistantsfor all occupations
O*NET Online is the occupation network online, started by the US
Dept of Labor in the 1990s it now represents one of the most
comprehensive lists of occupations along with a great deal of
information about each occupation, including skills, tasks,
certifications, demand for these jobs, etc.
O*NET lists about 1000 occupations from Accountants to
Zoologists and many job families in between. O*NET updates the
descriptions of the occupations as well as adding new occupations
over time.
Source:http://www.onetonline.org/find/family?f=023
Occupations = Many Tasks4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development24
Watson Discovery Advisor4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development25
Simonite, T. 2014. Software Mines Science Papers to Make New
Discoveries. MIT. November 25, 2014.URL:
http://m.technologyreview.com/news/520461/software-mines-science-papers-to-make-new-discoveries/
User Models4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs
Worldwide accelerating regional development26
Courses2015How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.9
months to 40% question answering accuracy1-2 years for 90%
accuracy, which questions to reject2025How to use a cognitive
system to be a better professional X.Tools to build a student level
Q&A from textbook in 1 week2035How to use your cognitive
assistant to build a startup.Tools to build faculty level Q&A
for textbook in one dayCognitive mediator knows a person better
than they know themselves2055 How to manage your workforce of
cognitive assistants.Most people have 100 cognitive assistants
working for them.
4/8/1627
Here is what I tell students....
... to try to provoke their thinking about the cognitive
era:
(0) 2015 - about 9 months to build a formative Q&A system -
40% accuracy;- another 1-2 years and a team of 10-20, can get it to
90% accuracy, by reducing the scope ("sorry that question is out of
scope")- today's systems can only answer questions, if the answers
are already existing in the text explicitly- debater is an example
of where we would like to get to though in 5 years:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g59PJxbGhY- more about the
ambitions at http://cognitive-science.info
(1) 2025: Watson will be able to rapidly ingest just about any
textbooks and produce a Q&A system - the Q&A system will
rival C-grade (average) student performance on questions
(2) 2035 - above, but rivals C-level (average) faculty
performance on questions
(3) 2035 - an exascale of compute power costs about $1000 - an
exascale is the equivalent compute of one person's brain power (at
20W power)
(4) 2035 - nearly everyone has a cognitive mediator that knows
them in many ways better than they know themselves - memory of all
health information, memory of everyone you have ever interacted
with, executive assistant, personal coach, process and memory aid,
etc.
(5) 2055 - nearly everyone has 100 cognitive assistants that
"work for them" - better management of your cognitive assistant
workforce is a course taught at university
In 2015, we are at the beginning of the beginning or the
cognitive era...
In 2025, we will be middle of beginning... easy to generate
average student level performance on questions in textbook....
In 2035, we will be end of beginning (one brain power
equivalent)... easy to generate average faculty level performance
on questions in textbook....
http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/spohrer-ubi-learn-20151103-v2
By 2055, roughly 2x 20 year generations out, the cognitive era
will be in full force.
Cellphones will likely become body suits - with burst-mode
super-strength and super-safety features:
Suits - body suit cell phones
Cognitive Mediators will read everything for us, and relate the
information to us - and what we know and our goals.
Think combined personal coach, executive assistant, personal
research team....
The key is knowing which problem to work on next - see this long
video for the answer - energy, water, food, wellness - and note
especially the wellness suit at the end:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YY7f1t9y9a0&index=10&list=WL
Do not be put off by the beginning of the video - it is a bit
over hyped and trivial, to say the leasat... but the projects are
really good if you have the patience to watch.27
Learning to program:My first program4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward
University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development
28
Early Computer Science Class:Watson Center at Columbia 1945Jim
Spohrers First Program 1972
In the 1940s IBM started teaching computer science at
Columbia.
My first program punch cards 1972.28
4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide
accelerating regional development 29
Bluemix free access http://www.ibm.com/university see academic
intiatives29
4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide
accelerating regional development 30
Interested faculty, students, really anyone with a credit card
can get 750 GB-Hours a month
freehttp://www.ibm.com/smarterplanet/us/en/ibmwatson/developercloud/services-catalog.html30
Reality 2.0 Service Platform:polite cognitive mediators
(CM1,CM2)do not interrupt people (P1,P2)4/8/16 IBM UPWard 2016
31Service PlatformCM2P2CM1P1100x100x100x
CM1 to CM2 Once they stop talking about the weather, do you
think we should let them know together they could potentially cure
cancer?31
And Beyond Utility FogUltimate vision of material and energy
flows inseparable with information flows
Universal Building BlockUtility Fog: Manufactured
ThingsCells:Living Things
Utility Fog: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utility_fogUtility
Fog: The Stuff That Dreams Are Made Of:
http://www.kurzweilai.net/utility-fog-the-stuff-that-dreams-are-made-of32
4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide
accelerating regional development 33Explain external phenomena
Which is more important to explain external phenomena or
internal phenomena?
Physics is the science that helps us understand the the external
world across many scales.
Picture of star
formationhttps://www.bnl.gov/science/physics.php33
4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide
accelerating regional development 34Explain internal phenomena
Which is more important to explain external phenomena or
internal phenomena?
Cognitive science, including brain science, neuroscience,
psychology and other areas, is the study of the internal world.
Artificial intelligence is the science and engineering
discipline trying to build smart machines or what we at IBM call
cognitive systems. Cognitive assistants are cognitive systems with
capabilities of natural language, learning, and levels (of
confidence) in recommendations to people trying to use them to make
decisions, and some cognitive assistants have more than 3 Ls, they
also have a 4th L limbs those cognitive assistants are robots.
Picture of physics and the
brain...http://medimoon.com/2014/04/drayson-foundation-donation-to-tackle-the-girls-in-physics-conundrum/
34
4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide
accelerating regional development 35
Explainvalue co-creationphenomena
4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide
accelerating regional development 36
PhysicsChemistryBiologyNeurosciencePsychologyArtificialIntelligenceEngineeringManagementPublicPolicyEducationDesignHumanitiesNatural
SystemsCognitive SystemsService Systems
However, at the end of the day, even with more creative and
productive people. With the 2035 symbiosis of people and their
cognitive assistants, we are left trying to explain external
phenomena and internal phenomena, as well as to create possible
future worlds
The natural sciences of course include physics, chemistry, and
biology.
The cogntive science are not as well understood, but people are
increasing aware of neuroscience (brain science), psychology, and
artificial intelligence which inform cognitive science.
Finally, the least understood and newest is service science.
Service science is the study of the evolving ecology of service
sytem entities with capabilities, contraints, rights, and
responsibilities but also importantly with imagination! The
humanities and fiction are a great source of possible future
worlds. We just have to design and edcuate the next generation to
engineer, manage, and set in place public policy that allows us to
realize possible future worlds that we would like to live in.
Source: Regis Lemmes
http://www.slideshare.net/SalesCubes/sales-cocreation-35336385
36
Dedication: Doug EngelbartFather of the mouse andaugmentation
theory4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide
accelerating regional development 37
One of my heroes and mentors Doug Engelbart (1925-2013)
Doug and I had several conversations about the relationship
between augmentation theory and service science. I wish we could
have had many more.
Before connecting augmentation theory to service science, I have
to travel through some technical areas that are closer to my first
two degrees physics at MIT and artificial intelligence at Yale
university but I promise you, I will connect this to service
science and smarter service system research agenda.
37
4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide
accelerating regional development 38
Source:https://books.google.com/books?id=AzHs2vi9UegC&pg=SA1-PA10&lpg=SA1-PA10&dq=%22this+has+been+a+day+of+solid+achievement%22&source=bl&ots=2cXOJI5iN7&sig=6MpztsLgQTqQvCDatlr-o-sRZ7w&hl=en&sa=X&ei=kY-eVbC_CMuosAXOnb7YBQ&ved=0CCgQ6AEwAg#v=onepage&q=%22this%20has%20been%20a%20day%20of%20solid%20achievement%22&f=false38
Assisting individuals and organizations to close their service
innovation skills gap and co-create smarter service systems
empowering employees, customers, citizenswith cognitive mediatorsin
the collaborative service economy
4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide
accelerating regional development 40
Jobs at IBM: Some Tips (in 6 slides)Go to
http://www.ibm.com/jobs (slide 1)Type in environmental (slide
2)press search button (not just return)See examples next few pages
(slide 3)Also:Try IBM Career Decoder (slide 4)Try LinkedIn (slide
5)Try http://www.ibm.com/employments/us (Slide 6)4/9/16 IBM UPWard
2016
41
Slide 1: http://www.ibm.com/jobs4/9/16 IBM UPWard 2016
42
Slide 2: Click Search Button!(Type Environmental - for
example)4/9/16 IBM UPWard 2016
43
Slide 3: Read and Apply if Qualified4/9/16 IBM UPWard 2016
44
Slide 4: Try IBM Career Decoder4/9/16 IBM UPWard 2016
45
Slide 5: Try IBM Employment/US4/9/16 IBM UPWard 2016
46
Final TipsData is part of every job even environmental
engineering!Try Watson AnalyticsTry Big Data University earn
badgesLearn to program at least a littleTry Python at Big Data
UBecome T-shaped, and tell your storyCheck out
http://tsummit.org/t4/9/16 IBM UPWard 2016
47
47
By 2036, T-Shaped Makers with great Building Blocks and
Cognitive Mediators4/9/1648
Empathy & Teamwork sectorregion/culturediscipline
DepthBreadthSTEMLiberal Arts
Source: http://tsummit.org48
Slide 6: Try LinkedIn 4/9/16 IBM UPWard 2016
49
In Summary4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs
Worldwide accelerating regional development50
A service scienceperspective considersthe evolving ecology of
service system entities, their value co-creation andcapability
co-elevationinteractions, and their capabilities,
constraints,rights, and responsibilities.
Cognitive SystemsEntities
Service SystemsEntities
WithCognitiveMediatorsAdd Rights &Responsibilities
4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide
accelerating regional development 51
Obvious things to do.. With the mission of cognitive assistants
for all occupations in smart service
systems.http://www.cognitive-science.infohttps://www.linkedin.com/groups/Cognitive-Systems-Institute-6729452
51
4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide
accelerating regional development 52
Smart Service System:All entities in networkuse cognitive
mediatorsto enhance value co-creation interactions
Cognitive Mediators:Cognitive systems with deep knowledge of
both customer (user) and provider (expert)as co-creators of win-win
valueEntity augmentation boosts both creativity and productivity of
interactions
Images
Sources:http://www.preventionjustice.org/potent-partnerships-networks-of-people-living-with-hiv/52
Sciences provideFrameworks for people to ask and answer
questions systematicallyExplanations with instructions on how to
re-do4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide
accelerating regional development 53Kline: Conceptual Foundation of
Multidisciplinary Thinking -To our children and childrens children,
to whom we elders owe an explanation of the worldthat is
understandable, realistic, forward-looking, and whole.
Proenneke:Alone in the Wilderness -To do a thorough testing,
should each generationbe required to rapidly rebuildfrom scratch? A
re-makers movement?
These concerns about what could possibly go wrong with cognitive
mediators are real, so how can science help provide answers to help
us make good choices in creating our future?
Image
sources:http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51oBLyAHXzL._SX327_BO1,204,203,200_.jpgAlone
in the Wilderness (1968) Dick Proenneke -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYJKd0rkKss
53
T-Shaped Future Ready Talent4/8/16 IBM UPWard 2016
54
4/8/16 IBM UPWard 2016
55CSIG
CognitiveScienceCognitive Architecture (Animals, People,
Robots)Distributed Cognition/Social Cognition (Orgs)Augmented
Intellect/Cognition (Collaboration)Practice4 Ls: Language,
Learning, Levels, LimbsLevels of Confidence in Recommendations
4/8/16 IBM UPWard 2016
56
Watson Platform on BlueMix4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development57
New Era of Computing:Cognitive Technologies &
Componentry58Natural LanguageReasoning, Logic &
PlanningSymbolic ProcessingNatural Language ProcessingRanking of
HypothesesKnowledge RepresentationsDomain-Specific
OntologiesInformation Storage/RetrievalMachine Learning,
ReasoningVon Neumann ComponentryOpenPOWER SystemsPattern
RecognitionRecognition, Sensing & ActingPattern ProcessingImage
& Speech ProcessingRanking of HypothesesPattern
RepresentationsDomain-Specific Neural NetsInformation
Storage/RetrievalMachine Learning, PerceptionNeuromorphic
ComponentryTrueNorth & Corelets SystemsAI for IA: Intelligence
Augmentation(Engelbarts Visiion)
Cognitive Assistants(Cogs) that boost creativity and
productivity of people in smart service systems.
Cognition as a Service
4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide
accelerating regional development58IBM Cloud Bluemix
So what does this have to do with programming and
computation?4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs
Worldwide accelerating regional development 59
Both Turing and von Neumann dreamed of universal machines and
constructors
You can tell famous computer scientists and mathematicians,
because they end up on stamps
Von Neumann was one of the first to make the connection to
computation and self-replicating automata. Both Turing and von
Neumann dreamed of universal machines, universal constructors,
kinematic machines, self-replicating machines, and more.
Source:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_machine59
4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide
accelerating regional development 60
195519751995201520352055
2035 one human brain/2055 all human brains
By 2035 the phone may have the power of one human brain by 2055
the phone may have the power of all human brains.
Before trying to answer the question about which types of
sciences are more important the ones that try to explain the
external world or the ones that try to explain the internal world
consider this, slide that shows the different telephones that I
have used in my life. I grew up in rural Maine, where we had a
party line telephone because we were somewhat remote on our farm in
Newburgh, Maine.
However, over the years phones got much better. So in 2035 or
2055, who are you going to call when you need help?60
4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide
accelerating regional development 61
What could possibly go wrong? Social technology makes us less
social.
Image
Source:https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/1d/eb/5c/1deb5c1cf49a5dbb7689131f3cc8b9a9.jpg61
What exists in 2016?4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 62
360,000100,000120,00060,000150,000
Many intelligent assistants or cognitive assistants are
beginning to appear. (the numbers indicate approximate number of
employees at each companuy).
More and more companies are working on cognitive assistants and
each month a new company shows up working on their version of an
intelligent personal assistant.
Make no mistake, like magnetism the company the can first
provide all its employees with intelligent personal
assistants/cognitvie assistants will have done something quite
historic!
Prediction 1 more than half of the Forbes Global 2000, and
equally many new startups, will have cognitive assistant projects
for their customers within ten yearsPrediction 2 by 2035 we will be
symbiotic with our cognitive assistantsPrediction 3 by 2055 (in
part due to the coaching of our cognitive coaches) an average adult
will have the ability to rapidly rebuild from scratch societal
infrastructure
Source:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligent_personal_assistant
62
Cognitive Assistants for all occupations are beginning to
appear4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide
accelerating regional development63
4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide
accelerating regional development 64
Cognitive Assistantsfor all occupations
O*NET Online is the occupation network online, started by the US
Dept of Labor in the 1990s it now represents one of the most
comprehensive lists of occupations along with a great deal of
information about each occupation, including skills, tasks,
certifications, demand for these jobs, etc.
O*NET lists about 1000 occupations from Accountants to
Zoologists and many job families in between. O*NET updates the
descriptions of the occupations as well as adding new occupations
over time.
Source:http://www.onetonline.org/find/family?f=064
Occupations = Many Tasks4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development65
Watson Discovery Advisor4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development66
Simonite, T. 2014. Software Mines Science Papers to Make New
Discoveries. MIT. November 25, 2014.URL:
http://m.technologyreview.com/news/520461/software-mines-science-papers-to-make-new-discoveries/
User Models4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs
Worldwide accelerating regional development67
4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide
accelerating regional development68
IBM TrueNorth Chip4/8/16 IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development69
Programming the IBM TrueNorth chip is like building a neural
network, not much like traditional programming.69
Dharmendra S. Modha, PhDSenior Manager, Cognitive Computing;
Principal Investigator, SyNAPSE
SyNAPSE
2011 IBM Corporation
2011 IBM CorporationIBM Research - Almaden
70
The brain is very good at integrating and co-ordinating multiple
sensory inputs and motor outputs
while occupying a small volume
and consuming very little power
2008 IBM CorporationOur brains are very good at doing certain
kinds of process that traditional computers struggle to do.
Our brains receive real-time, noisy spatio-temporal data from a
variety of sensors. All these sensor modes communicate their
information to the brain with a common language of electrical
impulses, called spikes (represented in the slide by tiny white
squares blinking on and off).
The brain recognizes patterns in these inputs and associates
patterns observed in one sense with those remember in another---for
example, the sight of a rose may evoke the sound of the word rose
or a memory of what rose smells like.
Based on these patterns, the brain plans and executes actions.
It controls various bodily actuators---muscles, glands, vocal
cords, etc.---using the same language of spikes.
Amazingly, the brain does all this while occupying only about
two liters of volume and consuming only about 20W of power.
People have struggled for decades to make computers of
conventional design do the things the brain can do, and this has
proven to be an extremely challenging task, especially when trying
to match the volume and power performance of the biological
brain.71
Computers and the Brain: Different & Complementary 10 Hz,
parallel, high fanout, event-driven
Integrates memory, computation, communication
10 mW/cm2
~5 GHz, sequential, linear, clocked
Separates memory, computation, communication
100 W/cm2
2010 IBM CorporationIBM Research
A large part of this struggle may result from the very different
approaches and architectures used by the brain and by conventional
computers.
Traditional computers operate in a step-by-step, sequential
fashion, marching in step to a clock that has gotten faster and
faster over the decades, thus using increasing power. In contrast,
the brain does many things in parallel, and only when needed.
Traditional computers separate memory, processing, and
communication, where the brain integrates them tightly
together.
As a result of these differences in architecture and approach,
traditional computers require a power density of about 100W/cm^2,
where the brain requires only about 10 mW/cm^272
DARPA SyNAPSE End Goaldevelop electronic neuromorphic machine
technology that scales to biological levels1014 synapsesneurons
firing at 10Hz in 2 liters, 1kW at real-time
2010 IBM CorporationIBM Research
74Phase 0, 1, 2, 3, 2008-, $53.5M
IBM Research 2010 IBM Corporation
75
Summary
2010 IBM CorporationIBM Research
2010 IBM CorporationIBM Research
IBM ConfidentialHow It Works:neurons, synapses, axons,
dendritesIntegrates memory computation communicationLocal data
movementEvent-drivenReconfigurableUltra-low powerCompact
2010 IBM CorporationIBM Research
78
SynapsesNeurons
Scheduler
256 neurons, 64K synapses, 1MHz field-adaptableSeo et al.,
2011
256 neurons, 256k synapses, asynchronous, 45
pJ/spikefield-programmableMerolla et al., 2011; Arthur et al.,
2012
Demonstrated Two Neurosynaptic Cores
2010 IBM CorporationIBM Research
79
TrueNorth Architecture
2010 IBM CorporationIBM Research
79
Von Neumann versus TrueNorth for brain-like
computationNeuron(s)
BusNeuronSynapseCommunicationNeuronSynapseCommunicationNeuronSynapseCommunicationNeuronSynapseCommunicationNeuronSynapseCommunicationNeuronSynapseCommunicationNeuronSynapseCommunicationNeuronSynapseCommunicationNeuronSynapseCommunication
Memory Wall / Bottleneck
SynapseSynapseSynapseSynapseSynapseSynapseSynapseSynapseSynapseCPUMemory
IBM Research 2010 IBM Corporation80Like the brain and unlike von
Neumann computing, the TrueNorth architecture: (a) is event-driven
and shies away from ever-increasing clock rates, the need for
cooling, and dark silicon, (b) integrates Memory with computation
and so avoids the Memory wall and minimizes overall average wire
length, (c) uses implicit addressing for Memory thus significantly
reducing Memory and communication, (d) has exceptionally low-power
and so can be ubiquitously embedded, (e) is fault-tolerant and so
degrades gracefully, and (f) is simple but fundamental, with
canonical cores using canonical learning interconnected via a
canonical fabric
SyNAPSE Stack
IBM Research 2010 IBM Corporation
NeoVision
IBM Research 2010 IBM Corporation82
SyNAPSE Stack
IBM Research 2010 IBM Corporation
IBM Research 2010 IBM Corporation
IBM Research 2010 IBM Corporation
Von Neumann:Left Brain ComputingSyNAPSE:Right Brain
ComputingSequential, Analytical
Text, numbers, symbolic
Front-end, back-end intelligence
Von Neumann Architecture
High Power and Area
Simultaneous, Synthetic
Sense-act, sub-symbolic
In-situ, physical intelligence
Non-von NeumannArchLow Power and Area
IBM Research
Copyright IBM Corporation 2009
IBM Proprietary