"#$%%&’()* +)&, -.)&#( $/0& 1&)&22& 3/4 5./$*$3 Re inout D e Bock , Dani e l Flor e a , and Joë l Touja s-B e rna t é WP/10/238
Spillovers Into Morocco and Tunisia
May 09, 2015
Spillovers from Europe into Morocco and
Tunisia, IMF, by
Reinout De Bock, Daniel Florea, and
Joël Toujas-Bernaté.
This paper examines the economic and financial linkages between Morocco and Tunisia and their European partners. Using structural vector autoregressions, we find that growth shocks in European partner countries generate significant responses on growth in Morocco and Tunisia. For Tunisia, exports and, to a much lesser extent, tourism appear to be the major transmission channels. In Morocco, exports, remittances and tourism play relatively equal roles. An analysis with sectoral data supports these results.
Tunisia, IMF, by
Reinout De Bock, Daniel Florea, and
Joël Toujas-Bernaté.
This paper examines the economic and financial linkages between Morocco and Tunisia and their European partners. Using structural vector autoregressions, we find that growth shocks in European partner countries generate significant responses on growth in Morocco and Tunisia. For Tunisia, exports and, to a much lesser extent, tourism appear to be the major transmission channels. In Morocco, exports, remittances and tourism play relatively equal roles. An analysis with sectoral data supports these results.
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Transcript
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!Reinout De Bock, Daniel F lorea, and
Joël Toujas-Bernaté !
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WP/10/238
!6!7898!:/0()/30$&/3%!1&/(03);!<./4! =>?98?7@A!!!! I M F Working Paper ! !! 1$44%(!-3*0!3/4!B(/0)3%!C*$3!D(#3)0,(/0!!!
Spillovers f rom Europe into Morocco and Tunisia1 !
Prepared by Reinout De Bock , Daniel F lorea, and Joël Toujas-Bernaté !
C.0E&)$F(4!+&)!4$*0)$G.0$&/!G;!H&I%!5&.J3*KL()/30M!!
N20&G()!7898!!!
Abstract!!
This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the I M F .!5E(!'$(O*!(P#)(**(4!$/!0E$*!=&)Q$/R!>3#()!3)(!0E&*(!&+!0E(!3.0E&)S*T!3/4!4&!/&0!/(2(**3)$%;!)(#)(*(/0!0E&*(!&+!0E(!:1<!&)!:1<!#&%$2;U!=&)Q$/R!>3#()*!4(*2)$G(!)(*(3)2E!$/!#)&R)(**!G;!0E(!3.0E&)S*T!3/4!3)(!#.G%$*E(4!0&!(%$2$0!2&,,(/0*!3/4!0&!+.)0E()!4(G30(U!
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! @!
I . IN T R O DU C T I O N
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I I . B A C K G R O UND A ND D A T A D ESC RIPT I O N
A . E conomic Policy and L inks with Partner Countries
:/!0E(!#3*0!4(234(*!1&)&22&!3/4!5./$*$3!E3'(!03Q(/!*$R/$+$23/0!*0(#*!$/!&#(/$/R!.#!0E($)!(2&/&,$(*U!C*$4(!+)&,!3!*$,$%3)!R(&R)3#E$23%!#&*$0$&/W!G&0E!2&./0)$(*!3)(!*,3%%!&#(/!(2&/&,$(*!O$0E!$,#&)03/0!E$*0&)$23%!3/4!2.%0.)3%!0$(*!O$0E!-.)&#(U!5./$*$3!*$R/(4!3/!3**&2$30$&/!3R)((,(/0!O$0E!0E(!-.)&#(3/!V/$&/!$/!9ee\!3/4!$,#%(,(/0(4!$0!$/!9eeAU!1&)&22&!*$R/(4!3/!3**&2$30$&/!3R)((,(/0!$/!9eeg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�(4!$/!G&0E!1&)&22&!3/4!5./$*$3!3+0()!7888W!3)(!3%*&!30!#%3;W!0E(!$,#320!&+!0E(!3**&2$30$&/!3R)((,(/0*!&/!G&0E!2&./0)$(*!3##(3)*!0&!G(!*$R/$+$23/0U!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!\!V/%(**!&0E()O$*(!*#(2$+$(4W!G;!(P#&)0*W!O(!./4()*03/4!(P#&)0*!&+!R&&4*U!
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<$R.)(!9U!5&03%!:,#&)0*!3/4!-P#&)0*!!S1$%%$&/*!&+!V"DW!9ee8i788AT!
! !
"&.)2([!B&./0);`*!3.0E&)$0$(*]!3/4!:1<!*03++!(*0$,30(*U!
-P#&)0*W!0&.)$*,!3/4!)(,$003/2(*!3)(!*$F3G%(!$/!G&0E!1&)&22&!3/4!5./$*$3W!3%0E&.RE!0E($)!$,#&)03/2(!'3)$(*!G(0O((/!0E(!0O&!2&./0)$(*!S<$R.)(!7TU!b(%30$'(!0&!cD>W!(P#&)0*!3)(!*.G*03/0$3%%;!E$RE()!$/!5./$*$3!0E3/!$/!1&)&22&U!:/!2&/0)3*0W!0&.)$*,!3/4!)(,$003/2(*!3##(3)!0&!G(!,&)(!$,#&)03/0!$/!1&)&22&U!<&)!(P3,#%(W!0E(!)30$&!&+!)(,$003/2(*!0&!cD>!$/!1&)&22&!$*!4&.G%(!0E(!)30$&!$/!5./$*$3U!!
<$R.)(!7U!"E3)(*!&+!-P#&)0*W!5&.)$*,W!3/4!b(,$003/2(*W!788A!!S:/!#()2(/0!&+!cD>T!!
"&.)2([!B&./0);`*!3.0E&)$0$(*]!3/4!:1<!*03++!(*0$,30(*U!!!!
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
Exports FOB
Imports CIF
Exports to the EU
(a) Morocco
AssociationAgreement with the EU
0
10000
20000
30000
Exports FOB
Imports CIF
Exports to the EU
(b) Tunisia
AssociationAgreement with the EU
22.4
8.0 8.7
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
Exports Tourism Remittances
(a) Morocco
42.7
6.14.4
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
Exports Tourism Remittances
(b) Tunisia
! g!
Box 1. Association Agreements
(a) The Association Agreement Between Morocco and the European Union
5E(!-VK1&)&22&!C**&2$30$&/!CR)((,(/0!O3*!*$R/(4!$/!<(G).3);!9eegW!3/4!(/0()(4!$/0&!+&)2(!$/!13)2E!7888W!+&%%&O$/R!$0*!)30$+$230$&/!G;!0E(!>3)%$3,(/0*!&+!0E(!-V!1(,G()!"030(*W!0E(!-.)&#(3/!>3)%$3,(/0!3/4!0E(!1&)&223/!>3)%$3,(/0U!!
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
:/!788AW!1&)&22&!&G03$/(4!m34'3/2(4!*030.*m!)(%30$&/*W!3!,&'(!OE$2E!#)&'$4(*!R)(30()!322(**!0&!0E(!-Vk*!$/0()/3%!,3)Q(0!3/4!OE$2E!#%32(*!1&)&22&!3!/&02E!3G&'(!0E(!,(,G()*!&+!0E(!m/($REG&)E&&4!#&%$2;Um!V/4()!0E(!0(),*!&+!0E(!34'3/2(4!*030.*W!1&)&22&!O$%%!3%*&!#3)0$2$#30(!$/!-.)&#(3/!2$'$%!3/4!,$%$03);!2)$*$*!,3/3R(,(/0!&#()30$&/*W!3*!O(%%!3*!$/!3!/.,G()!&+!-.)&#(3/!3R(/2$(*W!*.2E!3*!-.)&#&%W!0E(!-.)&#(3/!C$)!"(2.)$0;!CR(/2;W!3/4!0E(!-.)&#(3/!1&/$0&)$/R!B(/0()!+&)!D).R*!3/4!D).R!C44$20$&/U!
(b) The Association Agreement between Tunisia and the European Union
5./$*$3!*$R/(4!3!G$%30()3%!C**&2$30$&/!CR)((,(/0!O$0E!0E(!-V!$/!H.%;!9ee\!3/4!$,#%(,(/0(4!$0!$/!13)2E!9eeAU!C/!3,(/4,(/0!2&'()$/R!3R)$2.%0.)3%!#)&4.20*!O3*!$,#%(,(/0(4!&/!H3/.3);!9W!7889U!!5E(!CR)((,(/0!E3*!0E)((!,3$/!+(30.)(*U!<$)*0W!$0!%$G()3%$F(4!0)34(!)(%30$&/*!0E)&.RE!0E(!$,,(4$30(!3G&%$0$&/!&+!X.3/0$030$'(!)(*0)$20$&/*!3/4!3!R)34.3%!)(4.20$&/!&+!0)34(!G3))$()*!OE$2E!2.%,$/30(4!$/!+)((!0)34(!+&)!$/4.*0)$3%!R&&4*!$/!788AU!5)34(!%$G()3%$F30$&/!#()03$/$/R!0&!3R)$2.%0.)(!#)&4.20*!3/4!/(R&0$30$&/*!0&!%$G()3%$F(!0E(!0)34(!&+!*()'$2(*!3)(!*0$%%!&/R&$/RU!"(2&/4W!$0!2&/0)$G.0(4!0&!E3),&/$F$/R!5./$*$3`*!)(R.%30&);!+)3,(O&)Q!O$0E!0E(!&/(!$/!#%32(!$/!0E(!-VW!#3)0$2.%3)%;!+&)!0)34(K)(%30(4!#&%$2$(*W!/&),*!3/4!*03/43)4*!$/2%.4$/R!$/!0)3/*#&)0!3/4!0(%(2&,,./$230$&/*W!322&./0$/R!3/4!+$/3/2$3%!*()'$2(*W!3/4!*030$*0$2*U!5E$)4W!$0!#)&'$4(4!*.##&)0!+&)!*(20&)*!+32$/R!,&)(!4$++$2.%0$(*!0&!34J.*0!0&!0E(!0)34(!%$G()3%$F30$&/!S0E(!n,$*(!o!/$'(3.” pr&R)3,T!3/4!(/E3/2(4!2&&#()30$&/W!/&03G%;!$/!0E(!4('(%&#,(/0!&+!$/+)3*0).20.)(U!5E(!-.)&#(3/!Z($REG&)E&&4!>&%$2;!G.$%4*!&/!0E(!C**&2$30$&/!CR)((,(/0!G;!+&2.*$/R!0E(!G$%30()3%!2&&#()30$&/!G(0O((/!5./$*$3!3/4!0E(!-V!&/!,&)(!03)R(0(4!#)&R)3,*U!:0!O3*!4('(%&#(4!$/!788^!3/4!2&/2%.4(4!O$0E!5./$*$3!$/!788\U!:0!#)&'$4(*!$/2)(3*(4!+$/3/2$3%!*.##&)0!3/4!+3'&)*!(/E3/2(4!)(R$&/3%!2&&#()30$&/!+&)!0)34(!$/0(R)30$&/!3/4!0E(!4('(%&#,(/0!&+!$/+)3*0).20.)(!S#3)0$2.%3)%;!+&)!(/()R;W!0)3/*#&)0W!3/4!$/+&),30$&/!0(2E/&%&R;T]!$,#)&'(,(/0*!$/!0E(!G.*$/(**!2%$,30(!S#3)0$2.%3)%;!0E)&.RE!*0)(3,%$/(4!03P30$&/!3/4!2.*0&,*!#)&2(4.)(*W!3/4!*0)(/R0E(/(4!$/0(%%(20.3%!3/4!#)&#()0;!)$RE0*T]!3/4!3!2&/*&%$430(4!,32)&(2&/&,$2!+)3,(O&)QU!!5E(!-V!$*!0E(!,3$/!4(*0$/30$&/!&+!(P#&)0*!+&)!G&0E!1&)&22&!3/4!5./$*$3!S<$R.)(!@TU!5E(!-V`*!3'()3R(!*E3)(!$/!1&)&223/!(P#&)0*!+&)!0E(!#()$&4!788\i8A!O3*!h8!#()2(/0U!<&)!5./$*$3!0E$*!*E3)(!$*!*%$RE0%;!E$RE()W!30!hh!#()2(/0U!5E(!-V!#%3;*!3/!('(/!,&)(!#)&,$/(/0!)&%(!OE(/!$0!2&,(*!0&!
! h!
0&.)$*,!3/4!)(,$003/2(*U!5E(!3'()3R(!*E3)(*!+&)!0&.)$*,!)('(/.(*!3/4!)(,$003/2(*!&)$R$/30$/R!+)&,!0E(!-V!4.)$/R!0E(!*3,(!#()$&4!S788\i8AT!3)(!G(0O((/!A8!#()2(/0!3/4!e8!#()2(/0U!1&)(&'()W!0E(*(!*E3)(*!3##(3)!0&!G(!)(%30$'(%;!*03G%(!&'()!0$,(U!
<$R.)(!@U!-V!"E3)(*!$/!-P#&)0*W!5&.)$*,!3/4!b(,$003/2(*!!S:/!#()2(/0W!3'()3R(!788\i8AT!
!
"&.)2([!B&./0);`*!3.0E&)$0$(*]!3/4!:1<!*03++!(*0$,30(*!
!N0E()!2E3//(%*!,$RE0!3%*&!G(!(P#%&)(4!0&!(P3,$/(!0E(!$/0())(%30$&/!G(0O((/!0E(!-.)&#(3/!V/$&/!3/4!1&)&22&!3/4!5./$*$3`*!(2&/&,$(*W!*.2E!3*!$,#&)0*W!+&)($R/!4$)(20!$/'(*0,(/0!S<D:T!+%&O*W!3*!O(%%!3*!+$/3/2$3%!%$/Q3R(*U!b(R3)4$/R!<D:W!3%0E&.RE!0E(*(!+%&O*!3)(!R(/()3%%;!'&%30$%(W!<$R.)(!^!*.RR(*0*!0E30!0E(;!)(#)(*(/0!3!#&0(/0$3%%;!$,#&)03/0!0)3/*,$**$&/!2E3//(%!G(0O((/!0E(!-V!3/4!0E(!1&)&223/!3/4!5./$*$3/!(2&/&,$(*U!=(!2&/*$4()!E&O('()!0E30!0E(!(++(20!&+!<D:!$*!,3$/%;!*0).20.)3%!3/4!,3/$+(*0*!$0*(%+!$/!0E(!,(4$.,!0&!%&/R!0(),U!C*!*.2EW!$0!$*!%(**!*.$0(4!+&)!3/!3/3%;*$*!2(/0()(4!&/!G.*$/(**!2;2%(*!2&))(%30$&/*U!!
<$R.)(!^U!<D:!$/!1&)&22&!3/4!5./$*$3!!SC'()3R(!788\i8AT!
"&.)2([!B&./0);`*!3.0E&)$0$(*]!3/4!:1<!*03++!(*0$,30(*U! !
EU70
EU79
EU87
Other30
Other21
Other, 13
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Exports Tourism Remittances
(a) Morocco
EU77
EU85
EU88
Other23
Other, 15 Other, 12
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Exports Tourism Remittances
(b) Tunisia
4.9
6.2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Morocco Tunisia
(a) In percent of GDP
EU80
EU58
Other20
Other42
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Morocco Tunisia
(b) EU share in total FDI
! A!
5.)/$/R!0&!0E(!0)3/*,$**$&/!&+!*E&2Q*!0E)&.RE!+$/3/2$3%!2E3//(%*W!0E(!1&)&223/!3/4!5./$*$3/!G3/Q$/R!*;*0(,*!E3'(!%$,$0(4!%$/Q*!O$0E!$/0()/30$&/3%!,3)Q(0*U!L3/Q$/R!320$'$0$(*!3)(!+./4(4!$/!%3)R(!#3)0!O$0E!4&,(*0$2!4(#&*$0*!Sh\!#()2(/0!&+!G3/Q*`!)(*&.)2(*!$/!1&)&22&!3/4!A8!#()2(/0!$/!5./$*$3T!3/4!2)&**KG&)4()!+$/3/2$/R!$*!*,3%%U!:/!788e!*E&)0K0(),!+&)($R/!%$3G$%$0$(*!&+!1&)&223/!3/4!5./$*$3/!G3/Q*!0&!(P0()/3%!2&./0()#3)0*!)(#&)0(4!0&!0E(!L3/Q!+&)!:/0()/30$&/3%!"(00%(,(/0*!SL:"T!)(#)(*(/0(4!&/%;!@U@!3/4!9U7!#()2(/0!&+!0E($)!)(*#(20$'(!cD>!S53G%(!9TU!1&)(&'()W!$/!G&0E!2&./0)$(*!0E(!23#$03%!322&./0!$*!&/%;!#3)0$3%%;!&#(/U!"('()3%!)(*0)$20$&/*!3##%;!0&!0)3/*320$&/*!$/!+&)($R/!2.))(/2;W!+&)($R/!G&))&O$/R!3/4!+&)($R/!$/'(*0,(/0!G;!4&,(*0$2!+$),*!SL&P!7TU!!!
53G%(!9U!L3/Q*`!-P0()/3%!D(G0!"030$*0$2*W!7888i8e!S:/!#()2(/0!&+!cD>T!
!!
"&.)2([!L3/Q!+&)!:/0()/30$&/3%!"(00%(,(/0*W!B&./0);!3.0E&)$0$(*]!3/4!:1<!*03++!23%2.%30$&/*U!
<&)($R/!G3/Q*!E3'(!/&/K/(R%$R$G%(!#)(*(/2(*!$/!0E(!0O&!2&./0)$(*`!G3/Q$/R!*;*0(,*U!13J&)$0;K&O/(4!+&)($R/!G3/Q*!322&./0(4!+&)!79U^!#()2(/0!&+!0&03%!G3/Q$/R!3**(0*!$/!1&)&22&!S788AT!3/4!+&)!7eU^!#()2(/0!$/!5./$*$3!S788eTU!5E$*!#)(*(/2(!,$RE0!#%3;!3!)&%(!$/!0(),*!&+!$/2)(3*(4!2&,#(0$0$&/W!$,#)&'(4!G3/Q$/R!#)320$2(*!3/4!4$'()*$+$230$&/!&+!+./4$/R!*&.)2(*!G.0W!3*!$/!0E(!23*(!&+!$,#&)0*!3/4!<D:*W!0E(*(!(++(20*!3)(!,&)(!%$Q(%;!0&!3##(3)!$/!0E(!%&/R!)./U!Z('()0E(%(**W!0E(!$,#320!&+!0E(!&#(/$/R!&+!0E(!4&,(*0$2!,3)Q(0!0&!+&)($R/!G3/Q*!$/!1&)&22&!3/4!5./$*$3!$*!3!*.GJ(20!0E30!4(*()'(*!3!,.%0$#%(K3/R%(4!3/3%;*$*!OE$2E!R&(*!G(;&/4!0E(!#.)#&*(!&+!&.)!#3#()U!!! !
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Morocco Liabilities to BIS banks 17.7 16.1 15.3 11.9 10.8 8.9 7.5 7.9 8.4 9.8S‐T Liabilities to BIS banks 4.8 5.3 4.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 3.2 2.9 2.1 3.3TunisiaLiabilities to BIS banks 7.7 7.0 7.2 7.3 7.5 5.6 6.1 5.7 5.2 4.8S‐T liabilities to BIS banks 2.6 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 2.0 1.4 1.2 1.2
! e!
!Box 2. Some of the Remaining Restrictions on Foreign Cur rency
T ransactions and Capital flows
(a) Morocco
1&)&223/!(P#&)0()*!&+!R&&4*!3/4!*()'$2(*!,3;!&#(/!+&)($R/!(P2E3/R(!322&./0*!4&,(*0$23%%;!3/4!4(#&*$0!.#!0&!\8!#()2(/0!&+!0E(!)(#30)$30(4!+&)($R/!(P2E3/R(!)(2($#0*!+)&,!(P#&)0*U!<&)($R/!)(*$4(/0*!3/4!2&)#&)30$&/*!,3;!&#(/!+&)($R/!(P2E3/R(!322&./0*!O$0E&.0!%$,$030$&/*U!!B&,,()2$3%!G3/Q*!,3;!G&))&O!3G)&34!&/%;!0&!+$/3/2(!+&)($R/!0)34(!&)!$/'(*0,(/0!&#()30$&/*!&/!G(E3%+!&+!2.*0&,()*!&)!3*!#3)0!&+!0E(!$/0)&4.20$&/!&+!0E(!+&)O3)4!2&'()!+&)!2.*0&,()*`!+&)($R/!(P2E3/R(!*O3#*W!O$0E!,30.)$0$(*!(X.3%!0&!0E(!4.)30$&/!&+!0E(!E(4R$/R!&#()30$&/*!&++()(4U!!5E()(!3)(!/&!2&/0)&%*!&/!$/O3)4!4$)(20!$/'(*0,(/0U!N.0O3)4!4$)(20!$/'(*0,(/0*!3)(!*.GJ(20!0&!3##)&'3%W!G.0!)(*$4(/0!2&)#&)30$&/*!$/!&#()30$&/!+&)!,&)(!0E3/!0E)((!;(3)*!G(/(+$0!+)&,!2()03$/!+32$%$0$(*U!b(*$4(/0!+&)($R/!/30$&/3%*!3)(!+)((!0&!$/'(*0!3G)&34W!#)&'$4(4!0E(!&#()30$&/*!3)(!+$/3/2(4!+)&,!0E($)!&O/!+./4*!3G)&34!&)!+)&,!0E($)!E&%4$/R*!4(/&,$/30(4!$/!2&/'()0$G%(!4$)E3,!&)!+&)($R/!(P2E3/R(U!!C!/.,G()!&+!,(3*.)(*!O()(!03Q(/!4.)$/R!788e!0&!+.)0E()!%$G()3%$F(!0E(!23#$03%!322&./0U!!!
(b) Tunisia
>)&+(**$&/3%!322&./0*!$/!+&)($R/!2.))(/2;!,3;!G(!&#(/(4!G;!)(*$4(/0!$/4$'$4.3%*W!5./$*$3/!%(R3%!(/0$0;!3/4!+&)($R/!%(R3%!(/0$0;!$/!5./$*$3!O$0E!+&)($R/!2.))(/2;!3**(0*!$/!2&//(20$&/!O$0E!$0*!320$'$0$(*U!C.0E&)$F30$&/!G;!0E(!B(/0)3%!L3/Q!&+!5./$*$3!SLB5T!$*!)(X.$)(4!+&)!)(*$4(/0*!0&!&#(/!322&./0*!3G)&34U!-P#&)0!#)&2((4*!,.*0!G(!)(#30)$30(4!O$0E$/!3!0$,(!%$,$0!+)&,!0E(!#3;,(/0!4.(!430(U!p&O('()W!)(*$4(/0!(P#&)0()*!,3;!)(03$/!.#!0&!988!#()2(/0!&+!0E($)!+&)($R/!(P2E3/R(!(P#&)0!#)&2((4*U!5E(!32X.$*$0$&/!&+!3**(0*!S23#$03%!3/4!,&/(;!,3)Q(0!$/*0).,(/0*T!3G)&34!G;!)(*$4(/0*!$*!*.GJ(20!0&!3.0E&)$F30$&/U!b(*$4(/0*!3)(!3%*&!)(X.$)(4!0&!)(#30)$30(!3%%!$/2&,(!+)&,!$/'(*0,(/0!3G)&34W!3*!O(%%!3*!3%%!#)&2((4*!+)&,!0E(!4$'(*0$0.)(!&)!%$X.$430$&/!&+!*.2E!$/'(*0,(/0*U!"0&2Q*!$/!(P$*0$/R!2&,#3/$(*!$/!5./$*$3!,3;!G(!32X.$)(4!+)((%;!O$0E!+&)($R/!(P2E3/R(!0)3/*+())(4!+)&,!3G)&34!G;!+&)($R/!/&/)(*$4(/0*U!p&O('()W!0E(!32X.$*$0$&/!G;!+&)($R/()*!&+!*E3)(*!O$0E!'&0$/R!)$RE0*!$*!*.GJ(20!0&!0E(!3##)&'3%!&+!0E(!p$RE!:/'(*0,(/0!B&,,$**$&/U!Z&/)(*$4(/0*!,3;!3%*&!*(%%!+)((%;!*E3)(*!&+!2&,#3/$(*!(*03G%$*E(4!$/!5./$*$3U!5E(;!,3;!3%*&!0)3/*+()!+)((%;!/(0!)(3%!#)&2((4*!+)&,!0E(!*3%(!&+!*E3)(*!0E30!O()(!#.)2E3*(4!O$0E!+&)($R/!(P2E3/R(!0)3/*+())(4!+)&,!3G)&34U!!"&.)2([!:/0()/30$&/3%!1&/(03);!<./4W!788eW!Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions (AREAER).!!
B . Correlation of G rowth Rates with European Partners
c)&O0E!)30(*!&+!1&)&22&!3/4!5./$*$3W!&/!&/(!E3/4W!3/4!0E($)!Q(;!-.)&#(3/!#3)0/()*W!&/!0E(!&0E()!E3/4W!3##(3)!*0)&/R%;!#&*$0$'(%;!2&))(%30(4!$/!0E(!%3*0!4(234(U!:/!&.)!(2&/&,(0)$2!3/3%;*$*W!O(!.*(!)(3%!/&/3R)$2.%0.)3%!;(3)K&/K;(3)!R)&O0E!)30(*!&+!cD>!*()$(*!+&)!1&)&22& WMOR NA
tg !3/4!
! 98!
5./$*$3 WTUN NAtg Ug!5E(*(!*()$(*!3)(!*(3*&/3%%;!34J.*0(4!3/4!3'3$%3G%(!&/!3!X.3)0()%;!G3*$*U!<&)!0E(!
-VW!3!2&./0);K*#(2$+$2!2&,#&*$0(!cD>!R)&O0E!)30(! S TEUtg !$*!23%2.%30(4!3*!3!O($RE0(4!3'()3R(!
&+!R)&O0E!)30(*!&+!0E(!,3$/!-V!#3)0/()*!G3*(4!&/!0E(!O($RE0*!0E(*(!2&./0)$(*!03Q(!$/!1&)&22&`*!3/4!5./$*$3`*!(P#&)0*!&+!R&&4*!)(*#(20$'(%;U!5E(!2&./0);!O($RE0*!3)(!2&/*0).20(4!G;!0E(!:1<!+&)!0E(!c%&G3%!-2&/&,$2!-/'$)&/,(/0!Sc--TU!5E(!3##(/4$P!2&/03$/*!0E(!+&),.%3!+&)! S TEU
tg !3/4!03G%(*!O$0E!0E(!c--!O($RE0*!.*(4!+&)!1&)&22&!3/4!5./$*$3U!
53G%(!7U!f&%30$%$0;!3/4!B&))(%30$&/!B&(++$2$(/0*!&+!c)&O0E!b30(*W!7888l9i788el^!!
! WMOR NAtg ! S TEU
tg MOR ! WTUN NAtg ! S TEU
tg TUN ! S Ttg Oil !WMOR NA
tg ! 1.69 ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! !
S TEUtg MOR ! 8U^g! 2.08 ! ! !
! S@U79T! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! !WTUN NA
tg ! ! ! 1.59 ! !! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! !
S TEUtg TUN ! ! ! 8Ug@! 2.05 !
! ! ! S\U8gT! ! !
S Ttg Oil ! 8U9g! ! K8U8h! ! 14.60 ! S8UeAT! ! SK8U^@T! ! !
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"03/43)4!4('$30$&/*!3)(!&/!0E(!4$3R&/3%!3/4!2&))(%30$&/*!&++K4$3R&/3%U!L(0O((/!G)32Q(0*!3)(!0E(!5K*030*!+&)!0E(! /.%%! E;#&0E(*$*! 0E30! 3! *$/R%(! 2&))(%30$&/! 2&(++$2$(/0! $*! (X.3%! 0&! F()&U! Oil! $*! 0E(! *#&0! #(0)&%(.,! #)$2(!S3'()3R(!&+!<30(EW!L)(/0!3/4!=5:T!$/!V"q!*23%(4!G;!V"!B>:U!
!53G%(!7!*E&O*!3!*0)&/R!#&*$0$'(!2&))(%30$&/!G(0O((/!0E(!R)&O0E!)30(* S TEU
tg MOR 3/4 WMOR NAtg !3/4
S TEUtg TUN O$0E WTUN NA
tg Uh!5E$*!2&))(%30$&/!$*!^g!#()2(/0!+&)!1&)&22&!3/4!g@!#()2(/0!+&)!5./$*$3U!"030$*0$23%!0(*0*!)(J(20!0E(!E;#&0E(*$*!0E30!0E(*(!2&))(%30$&/*!3)(!(X.3%!0&!F()&U!5E(!03G%(!3%*&!*E&O*!0E30!0E()(!$*!/&!*0)&/R!2&))(%30$&/!G(0O((/!R)&O0E!$/!)(3%!#(0)&%(.,!*#&0!#)$2(*W! S Ttg Oil W!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!g!=(!(P2%.4(!3R)$2.%0.)3%!&.0#.0!+)&,!cD>!3*!0E$*!2&,#&/(/0!)(,3$/*!%3)R(%;!4(#(/4(/0!&/!2%$,30$2!+320&)*!$/!G&0E!2&./0)$(*U!:/!OE30!+&%%&O*W!./%(**!&0E()O$*(!*#(2$+$(4W!O(!./4()*03/4!/&/3R)$2.%0.)3%!cD>!OE(/!)(+())$/R!0&!1&)&22&!3/4!5./$*$3`*!cD>U!!h!=(!+&./4!*$,$%3)!/.,G()*!OE(/!23%2.%30$/R!0E(!2&))(%30$&/!&+!1&)&223/!3/4!5./$*$3/!R)&O0E!)30(*!O$0E!(.)&F&/(!cD>!)(#&)0(4!G;!-.)&*030U!!
! 99!
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WTUN NAtg !O$0E!R)&O0E!$/!0E($)!-.)&#(3/!#3)0/()*!3)(!/&0!E$4$/R!0E(!(++(20!&+!3!R%&G3%!2;2%(UA!
I I I . EST I M A T IN G T H E SPI L L O V E RS
A . Identification Scheme
=(!#)&2((4!O$0E!3!fCbKG3*(4!$4(/0$+$230$&/!*2E(,(!$/!&)4()!0&!(*0$,30(!0E(!$,#320!&+!3/!$//&'30$&/!$/!-V!R)&O0E!&/!1&)&22&!3/4!5./$*$3!/&/3R)$2.%0.)3%!cD>!R)&O0EU!1&)(!*#(2$+$23%%;W!+&)!2&./0);!JW!0E(!'3)$3G%(*!$/2%.4(4!$/!0E(!G3*(%$/(!fCb!3)([!!
WS TW kUEU j NAt t tZ g j g !
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,3##(4!$/0&!0E(!*0).20.)3%!*E&2Q*! t !G;!0E(!*0).20.)3%!,30)$P oA [!
8 Ut tA u !
=(!.*(!0E(!$/'()*(!&+!0E(!BE&%(*Q$!+320&)!&+!0E(!'3)$3/2(K2&'3)$3/2(!,30)$P!V!0&!$4(/0$+;!*0).20.)3%!*E&2Q*!0E30!3)(!&)0E&R&/3%!0&!(32E!&0E()W! IE tt k W!OE()(!I!$*!0E(!$4(/0$0;!,30)$PU!5E$*!2&))(*#&/4*!0&!0E(!3**.,#0$&/!0E30!&/!$,#320!*0).20.)3%!*E&2Q*!$/!5./$*$3!E3'(!3!F()&!(++(20!&/!*E&2Q*!$/!-.)&#(3/!#3)0/()!2&./0)$(*U!:0!$*!$,#&)03/0!0&!/&0(!0E30!2E3/R$/R!0E(!&)4()$/R!&+!0E(!'3)$3G%(*!$/!Z!4$4!/&0!2E3/R(!&.)!)(*.%0*U!
B . Responses to External G rowth Shock
<&)!(32E!2&./0);!O(!.*(!0E(!%&/R(*0!3'3$%3G%(!X.3)0()%;!4303!+&)!0E(!fCb!(*0$,30$&/U!<&)!1&)&22&W!0E(!*3,#%(!2&'()*!0E(!#()$&4!9ee8l9!0&!788el^W!OE()(3*!+&)!5./$*$3!0E(!4303*(0!$*!+)&,!7888l9!0&!788el^U!e!D(*#$0(!2&'()$/R!3!)(%30$'(%;!*E&)0!0$,(!*#3/W!0E(*(!4303*(0*!3%%&O!.*!0&!23#0.)(!0E(!)(2(/0!#()$&4!&+!E$RE!R)&O0E!O$0E!$,#&)03/0!*0).20.)3%!2E3/R(*!+&%%&O(4!G;!0E(!34'()*(!*E&2Q!&+!788Ai8eU!=(!$/2%.4(!0O&!%3R*!$/!0E(!(*0$,30(4!fCb*U!C22&)4$/R!0&!0E(!"2EO3)F!$/+&),30$&/!2)$0()$3W!0E$*!$*!0E(!�$,3%!%3R!%(/R0E!+&)!G&0E!1&)&22&!3/4!5./$*$3U!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!A!5K0(*0*!3%*&!+3$%!0&!)(J(20!0E(!E;#&0E(*$*!0E30!2&))(%30$&/*!&+!1&)&223/!&)!5./$*$3/!cD>!R)&O0E!)30(*!O$0E!V"!)(3%!cD>!R)&O0E!3)(!*$R/$+$23/0%;!4$++()(/0!+)&,!F()&U!
e!"$,.%30$&/*!)./!+&)!1&)&22&!&/!0E(!7888l9i788el^!0$,(!$/0()'3%!%(34!0&!'();!*$,$%3)!)(*.%0*!0&!0E(!&/(*!#)(*(/0(4!$/!0E$*!#3#()U!
! 97!
<$R.)(!\!*E&O*!$,#.%*(!)(*#&/*(!+./20$&/!S:b<*T!&+!R)&O0E!$/!1&)&22&!3/4!5./$*$3!0&!3!&/(!*03/43)4!4('$30$&/!*E&2Q!$/!0E(!R)&O0E!&+!cD>!$/!0E(!(2&/&,$2!#3)0/()*U!5E(!R)3#E!3%*&!$/2%.4(*!*03/43)4!())&)!G3/4*!(/2&,#3**$/R!0E(!e\!#()2(/0!2&/+$4(/2(!$/0()'3%U!5E(!$,#.%*(!)(*#&/*(!&+!G&0E!1&)&22&!3/4!5./$*$3!cD>!R)&O0E!0&!-V!cD>!R)&O0E!$*!*$R/$+$23/0%;!4$++()(/0!+)&,!F()&!$/!0E(!+$)*0!+&.)!X.3)0()*U!C!'3)$30$&/!&+!&/(!#()2(/03R(!#&$/0!$/!-V!cD>!R)&O0E!#)&4.2(*!3!*$,$%3)!#(3Q!)(*#&/*(!$/!1&)&22&!S8U\e!$/!0E(!*(2&/4!X.3)0()T!2&,#3)(4!0&!5./$*$3!S8Ug7!$/!0E(!0E$)4!X.3)0()T!G.0!R(/()30(*!3!,&)(!3G).#0!3/4!*E&)0!%$'(4!)(*#&/*(!+&)!1&)&22&W!OE$%(!0E(!)(*#&/*(!$*!,&)(!#()*$*0(/0!$/!0E(!23*(!&+!5./$*$3U!!
C*!3!)&G.*0/(**!2E(2QW!O(!3%*&!)('()*(4!0E(!&)4()!&+!0E(!R)&O0E!)30(*!$/!0E(!fCbW!3/4!+&./4!*$,$%3)!)(*.%0*U!C*!(P#(20(4W!$/!3%%!0E(!"fCb*W!R)&O0E!*E&2Q*!$/!1&)&22&!3/4!5./$*$3!R(/()30(!/&/*$R/$+$23/0!)(*#&/*(*!&/!R)&O0E!$/!0E(!-V!#3)0/()!2&./0)$(*U98!
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tg MOR 3/4! S TEUtg TUN $/2)(3*(*!30!%&/R()!
E&)$F&/*U!C0!3!98KX.3)0()!+&)(23*0!E&)$F&/W!*E&2Q*!0&! S TEUtg MOR (P#%3$/!99!#()2(/0!&+!
1&)&22&`*!cD>!R)&O0E!OE()(3*!*E&2Q*!0& S TEUtg TUN !(P#%3$/!@A!#()2(/0!&+!5./$*$3`*!cD>!
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‐1
‐0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 5Q 6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 10Q
(a) Morocco
0.55
‐1
‐0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 5Q 6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 10Q
(b) Tunisia
0.59
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tg !S$/!rT!Quarter Morocco Tunisia
1 0.49 3.78
2 6.01 17.20
3 8.12 28.94
4 9.91 34.55
5 10.51 36.71
6 10.71 37.28
7 10.74 37.31
8 10.74 37.36
9 10.74 37.58
10 10.75 37.90 !
!!!!"&.)2([!:1<!*03++!(*0$,30(*U!
C . A lternative Identification of Shocks
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"&.)2([!:1<!*03++!(*0$,30(*U!
I V . D E C O MPOSIN G T H E SPI L L O V E RS B Y T R A NSM ISSI O N C H A NN E LS
5&!R(0!3!*(/*(!&+!0E(!)(%30$'(!$,#&)03/2(!&+!4$++()(/0!0)3/*,$**$&/!2E3//(%*!O(!+&%%&O!0E(!3##)&32E!#)&#&*(4!$/!L3;&.,$!3/4!"O$*0&/!S788eTU!5E(!"fCb*!3)(!3.R,(/0(4!&/(!30!3!0$,(!O$0E!4303!&/!0)34(W!0&.)$*,!3/4!)(,$003/2(*!3*!(P&R(/&.*!'3)$3G%(*U!5E(!#&0(/0$3%!2&/0)$G.0$&/! kc !&+!3!#3)0$2.%3)!2E3//(%!k!$*!0E(/!23%2.%30(4!3*[!!
Uk kc r r !5E(!2&/0)$G.0$&/! kc !$*!0E(!4$++()(/2(!G(0O((/!0E(!)(*#&/*(*!&+!R)&O0E!$/!1&)&22&!&)!5./$*$3!0&!R)&O0E!$/!#3)0/()!2&./0)$(*!SrT!,$/.*!0E(!)(*#&/*(!&+!R)&O0E!OE(/!0E(!*#$%%&'()!$*!$/2%.4(4!3*!3/!(P&R(/&.*!'3)$3G%(!S kr TU!5E(!$4(3!$*!0E30!344$/R!0E(!(P&R(/&.*!'3)$3G%(!0&!0E(!fCb!%(3'(*!$/! kr !0E(!#3)0!&+!0E(!)(*#&/*(!0E30!$*!/&0!3**&2$30(4!O$0E!0E(!0)3/*,$**$&/!2E3//(%!k!S<$R.)(!hTU!!!
<$R.)(!hU!L3;&.,$!3/4!"O$*0&/!C##)&32E!
!"&.)2([!:1<!*03++!(*0$,30(*U!
!5E$*!3##)&32E!4&(*!/&0!(P2%.4(!0E(!(P$*0(/2(!&+!&0E()!)(%('3/0!0)3/*,$**$&/!2E3//(%*!3/4!4&(*!/&0!322&./0!+&)!0E(!2&%%$/(3)$0;!G(0O((/!0E(!4$++()(/0!2E3//(%*U!5E$*!3%*&!$,#%$(*!0E30!0E(!*&.)2(*!&+!*#$%%&'()*! kc !3)(!/&0!/(2(**3)$%;!)(X.$)(4!0&!*.,!.#!0&!0E(!$,#.%*(!)(*#&/*(!rU!C*!*.2EW!O(!
‐1
‐0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 5Q 6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 10Q
(a) Morocco
Short‐run Long‐run
Reduced‐1
‐0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 5Q 6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 10Q
(b) Tunisia
Short‐run Long‐run
Reduced
! 9\!
#)(+()!0&!0E$/Q!&+!0E$*!0(2E/$X.(!3*!3!R3.R(!#)&'$4$/R!3/!$/4$230$&/!&+!0E(!)(%30$'(!$,#&)03/2(!&+!0E(!,3J&)!2E3//(%*!3/4!/&0!3*!3!#)(2$*(!G)(3QK4&O/!&+!0E(!$,#.%*(!)(*#&/*(U!99!!!
<$R.)(!AU!B.,.%30$'(!b(*#&/*(*!0&!c)&O0E!://&'30$&/!$/!>3)0/()!B&,#&*$0(!
"&.)2([!:1<!*03++!(*0$,30(*U!
<$R.)(!A!*E&O*!0E(!2.,.%30$'(!$,#320!&+!0E(!4$++()(/0!2&/0)$G.0$&/*! kc !4(0(),$/(4!O$0E!0E$*!,(0E&4!+&)!1&)&22&!3/4!5./$*$3W!OE()(!0E(!*0).20.)3%!*E&2Q*!3)(!$4(/0$+$(4!3*!$/!"(20$&/!:::UCU!=(!3%*&!$/2%.4(!0E(!2.,.%30$'(!$,#.%*(!)(*#&/*(!+./20$&/!&+!0E(!"fCb*!(*0$,30(4!$/!"(20$&/!:::ULU!5E(!3/3%;*$*!*.RR(*0*!0E30W!$/!0E(!23*(!&+!5./$*$3W!(P#&)0*W!3/4!0&!3!,.2E!%(**()!(P0(/0!0&.)$*,W!3)(!0E(!,3J&)!0)3/*,$**$&/!2E3//(%*U!b(,$003/2(*!*((,!0&!#%3;!3!'();!%$,$0(4!)&%(!30!0E(*(!+)(X.(/2$(*U!<&)!1&)&22&W!0E(!)(*.%0*!*E&O!0E30!G(*$4(*!(P#&)0*W!OE$2E!*0$%%!#%3;!3/!$,#&)03/0!)&%(W!)(,$003/2(*!3/4!0&.)$*,!3)(!3%*&!,3J&)!0)3/*,$**$&/*!2E3//(%*!+&)!*#$%%&'()*U!B)&**K2&))(%30$&/*!G(0O((/!0E(!0E)((!+%&O*!3)(!*$R/$+$23/0!$/!0E(!23*(!&+!1&)&22&U!
5E(*(!)(*.%0*!3)(!$/!%$/(!O$0E!0E(!320.3%!('&%.0$&/*!$/!(P#&)0*W!0&.)$*,!3/4!)(,$003/2(*!&G*()'(4!4.)$/R!0E(!)(2(/0!*%&O4&O/!$/!-.)&#(!S<$R.)(!eTU!:/!1&)&22&!3%%!0E(!0E)((!'3)$3G%(*!*0)&/R%;!)(*#&/4(4!0&!0E(!*E3)#!4)&#!$/!-V!cD>U97!:/!5./$*$3W!&/!0E(!&0E()!E3/4W!(P#&)0*!O()(!0E(!,&*0!3++(20(4U!5&.)$*,!)(2($#0*!$/!5./$*$3!O()(!%(**!3++(20(4W!OE$%(!)(,$003/2(*!*E&O(4!3!)(,3)Q3G%;!*0)&/R!)(*$%$(/2(U!!
! !
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!99!<&)!,&)(!4(03$%*!&/!0E$*!3##)&32EW!*((!L3;&.,$!3/4!"O$*0&/!S788eTU!!97!5&03%!(P#&)0!#()+&),3/2(!$/!1&)&22&!$*!3%*&!$/+%.(/2(4!G;!*E3)#!+%.20.30$&/*!$/!$/0()/30$&/3%!#)$2(*!3/4!'&%.,(*!&+!#E&*#E30(!(P#&)0*U!5E(!*E3)(!&+!#E&*#E30(!$/!0&03%!(P#&)0*!O3*!A!#()2(/0!$/!788hW!9^!#()2(/0!$/!788AW!3/4!h!#()2(/0!$/!788eU!l.3/0$0$(*!4(2)(3*(4!9g!#()2(/0!$/!788A!3/4!\8!#()2(/0!$/!788eW!OE()(3*!#)$2(*!,&)(!0E3/!0)$#%(4!$/!788A!3/4!+(%%!^9!#()2(/0!$/!788eU!!
0.18 0.400.68
1.021.37
1.690.10
0.37
0.75
1.21
0.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8
(a) Morocco Remittances
Tourism
Exports
(IR) RHS
4.16 (1.52)
0.75
1.47
1.972.28 2.44 2.46 2.39
0.28
0.370.41 0.41 0.38
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8
(b) Tunisia
Remittances
Tourism
Exports
(IR)
2.88 (2.31)
! 9g!
<$R.)(!eU!b(320$&/*!0&!0E(!b(2(/0!"%&O4&O/!$/!-.)&#(!S@!,&/0E!,&'$/R!3'()3R(!;K&K;!R)&O0E!)30(*!&+!'3)$3G%(*!$/!%&23%!2.))(/2;W!$/!#()2(/0T!
"&.)2([!B&./0);`*!3.0E&)$0$(*]!3/4!:1<!*03++!(*0$,30(*U!!
V . SE C T O R A L A N A L YSIS
:/!0E$*!*(20$&/!O(!0(*0!0E(!)&G.*0/(**!&+!0E(!#)('$&.*!)(*.%0*!G;!(P3,$/$/R!0E(!)(*#&/*(!&+!R)&O0E!$/!4$++()(/0!*(20&)*!0&!R)&O0E!*E&2Q*!$/!-V!#3)0/()!2&./0)$(*U!5&!0E$*!3$,W!O(!)(K)./!0E(!"fCb!3/4!)(#%32(!0E(!/&/3R)$2.%0.)3%!cD>!R)&O0E!)30(*!+&)!5./$*$3!3/4!1&)&22&!O$0E!0E(!cD>!R)&O0E!)30(*! Wj SECTOR
tg !$/!#3)0$2.%3)!*(20&)*U!C*!$/!"(20$&/!:::!LW!0E(!$,#.%*(!)(*#&/*(!,(3*.)(*!0E(!)(320$&/!&+!0E(*(!*(20&)*`!'3%.(!344(4!R)&O0E!)30(!0&!0E(!2&./0);K*#(2$+$2!-V!cD>!2&,#&*$0(U!<&)!2&./0);!JW!0E(!'3)$3G%(*!$/2%.4(4!$/!0E(!fCb!3)(!0E(/[!!!
W W S T kUj SECTOR EUt t tZ g g j !
!:/!%$/(!O$0E!0E(!)(*.%0*!#)(*(/0(4!$/!"(20$&/!:fW!<$R.)(!98!*E&O*!0E30!$/!1&)&22&!*()'$2(K)(%30(4!*(20&)*W!OE$2E!3)(!,&)(!*$R/$+$23/0%;!$/+%.(/2(4!G;!0&.)$*,!3/4!0)3/*+()*W!3##(3)!0&!G(!,&)(!*(/*$0$'(!0&!0E(!-.)&#(3/!2;2%(U!"(20&)*!*.2E!3*!,3/.+320.)$/RW!2&/*0).20$&/W!,$/$/R!3/4!(/()R;!4&!/&0!*((,!0&!G(!*$R/$+$23/0%;!$/+%.(/2(4U!L;!2&/0)3*0W!$/!5./$*$3!(P#&)0K&)$(/0(4!*(20&)*W!*.2E!3*!,3/.+320.)$/R!3/4!(/()R;W!3)(!0E(!,&*0!)(*#&/*$'(U!CR)$2.%0.)(W!,$/$/R!3/4!&0E()!*()'$2(*!*E&O!O(3Q!)(320$&/*!0&!0E(!'3)$30$&/*!$/!-V!cD>U!!
<$R.)(!98U!B.,.%30$'(!b(*#&/*(!&+!"(20&)!c)&O0E!0&!3/!-P0()/3%!c)&O0E!"E&2Q!
"&.)2([!:1<!*03++!(*0$,30(*U!
‐50
‐30
‐10
10
30
50
Jun‐08 Oct‐08 Feb‐09 Jun‐09 Oct‐09 Feb‐10
Exports
Tourism receipts
Remittances
(a) Morocco
‐50
‐30
‐10
10
30
50
Jun‐08 Oct‐08 Feb‐09 Jun‐09 Oct‐09 Feb‐10
Exports
Tourism receipts
Remittances
(b) Tunisia
0
1
2
3
4
5
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8 Q9 Q10
(a) Morocco
Commerce
Other Services
Transports&Telecom
Non‐responsive sectors:‐ Manufacturing‐ Agriculture‐ Mining‐ Construction‐ Energy
0
4
8
12
16
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8 Q9 Q10
(b) Tunisia
Manufacturing
Energy
Transports&Telecom
Construction
Non‐responsive sectors:‐ Agriculture‐ Mining‐ Other services
! 9h!
V I . PO L I C Y I MPL I C A T I O NS
5E(!(2&/&,(0)$2!3/3%;*$*!4(,&/*0)30(*!0E30W!+&)!G&0E!5./$*$3!3/4!1&)&22&`*!(2&/&,$(*W!0E(!-.)&#(3/!V/$&/!#%3;*!3!Q(;!)&%(U!N.)!3/3%;*$*!2&/+$),*!0E(!)&G.*0/(**!&+!0E$*!2&//(20$&/!3/4!(P3,$/(*!)(%30$'(!$,#&)03/2(!&+!$0*!4$++()(/0!0)3/*,$**$&/!2E3//(%*U!=E$%(!0E(*(!2%&*(!0$(*!O$0E!0E(!-.)&#(3/!V/$&/!E3'(!G((/!3!2(/0)3%!+320&)!2&/0)$G.0$/R!0&!0E(!#)&2(**!&+!&#(/$/R!.#!0E(!0O&!(2&/&,$(*!3/4!$,#)&'$/R!0E($)!2&,#(0$0$'(/(**W!0E(;!,$RE0!3%*&!)(#)(*(/0!3!2E3%%(/R(!+&)!0E(!+.0.)(U!!
b(3%!&.0#.0!4)&##(4!G;!,&)(!0E3/!^!#()2(/0!$/!0E(!-.)&!C)(3!$/!788eU!1&)(&'()W!2.))(/0!+&)(23*0*!3)(!0E30!0E(!)(G&./4!$/!0E(!-V!3)(3!O$%%!G(!,&4(*0!3/4!*%&OU!c)&O0E!$/!G&0E!4&,(*0$2!4(,3/4!3/4!)(3%!cD>!O$%%!*03;!G(%&O!0E($)!#)(K2)$*$*!%('(%*!$/!0E(!;(3)*!0&!2&,(!S<$R.)(!99TU!b(2(/0!2&/2()/*!3G&.0!*&'()($R/!4(G0!3/4!0E(!*.*03$/3G$%$0;!&+!#.G%$2!+$/3/2(*!$/!"&.0E()/!-.)&#(3/!2&./0)$(*!344!+.)0E()!4&O/*$4(!)$*Q*!0&!0E$*!&.0%&&QU!
<$R.)(!99U!-.)&!C)(3jb(3%!cD>!3/4!b(3%!:,#&)0*!c)&O0E!S:/!#()2(/0T!
! !"&.)2([!:1<W!=&)%4!-2&/&,$2!N.0%&&Q!SC#)$%!7898T!3/4!=&)%4!-2&/&,$2!N.0%&&Q!V#430(!SH.%;!7898TU!
Z&0!&/%;!O$%%!)(3%!cD>!R)&O0E!$/!-.)&#(!G(!%&O()W!G.0!0E(!(/R$/(*!&+!R)&O0E!$/!-.)&#(!3)(!(P#(20(4!0&!2E3/R(W!O$0E!%(**!2&/0)$G.0$&/!2&,$/R!+)&,!0E(!4&,(*0$2!4(,3/4U!C*!3!)(*.%0W!R)&O0E!$/!-.)&#(3/!$,#&)0*jOE$2E!)(#)(*(/0*!0E(!,3$/!*&.)2(!&+!(P0()/3%!4(,3/4!+&)!1&)&22&!3/4!5./$*$3j$*!#)&J(20(4!0&!G(!%(**!0E3/!E3%+!2&,#3)(4!0&!0E(!#)(K2)$*$*!#()$&4!$/!7898!3/4!7899!S<$R.)(!99TU!!
:0!$*!/&0(O&)0E;!0E30!+&%%&O$/R!0E(!3**&2$30$&/!3R)((,(/0*!0E(!,3)Q(0!*E3)(*!&+!1&)&22&!3/4!5./$*$3!$/!-V!,()2E3/4$*(!$,#&)0*!E3'(!/&0!$/2)(3*(4!*$/2(!9eeeU!53G%(!^!*E&O*!0E30!0E(*(!,3)Q(0!*E3)(*!E3'(!)(,3$/(4!+3$)%;!*03G%(!&)!*%$RE0%;!4(2)(3*(4!&'()!0E(!#3*0!4(234(U!"('()3%!+320&)*!23/!(P#%3$/!0E$*!('&%.0$&/W!*.2E!3*!0E(!$/2)(3*(4!%$G()3%$F30$&/!&+!O&)%4!0)34(!./4()!0E(!=5N!3R)((,(/0*!3/4!0E(!+$()2(!2&,#(0$0$&/!+)&,!+3*0KR)&O$/R!(P#&)0()*!*.2E!3*!BE$/3!3/4!-3*0()/!-.)&#(U!CR3$/*0!0E$*!G32Q4)&#W!,3$/03$/$/R!,3)Q(0!*E3)(!$*!,&)(!0E3/!E&/&)3G%(U!!
!
‐4.1
1.0 1.8 1.7
‐12
‐10
‐8
‐6
‐4
‐2
0
2
4
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Real GDP(growth rates, in percent)Average
2000‐07:2.1
Forecast
‐12.2
2.2 2.44.4
‐14
‐12
‐10
‐8
‐6
‐4
‐2
0
2
4
6
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Real Imports of goods (growth rates, in percent)
Average2000‐07:
5.8
Forecast
! 9A!
53G%(!^[!1&)&22&!3/4!5./$*$3!"E3)(*!$/!-V!:,#&)0*!!S:/!#()2(/0T!
EU (27 countries) 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Morocco 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.5 Tunisia 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
"&.)2(
! 9e!
*%&O4&O/!$/!-.)&#(U!C!*$,$%3)!(P()2$*(!30!0E(!*(20&)3%!%('(%!$/4$230(*!0E30!0E(!*(20&)*!)(%30(4!0&!*()'$2(*!3)(!0E(!,&*0!)(*#&/*$'(!0&!-V`*!cD>!$/!1&)&22&W!OE$%(!$/!5./$*$3!0E(!,&*0!)(*#&/*$'(!*(20&)*!3)(!,&)(!(P#&)0K&)$(/0(4U!!
=E$%(!&.)!+$/4$/R*!*E&O!3!)(,3)Q3G%(!2&E()(/2(W!0E()(!3)(!3!/.,G()!&+!%$,$030$&/*!0&!Q((#!$/!,$/4!OE(/!$/0()#)(0$/R!0E(*(!)(*.%0*U!<$)*0W!$0!*E&.%4!G(!(,#E3*$F(4!0E30!3!fCb!3/3%;*$*!$*!/&0!3!R)&O0E!322&./0$/R!(P()2$*(U!:0!*E&O*!0E(!*(/*$0$'$0;!&+!0E(!4(#(/4(/0!'3)$3G%(!0&!(P0()/3%!*E&2Q*!)30E()!0E3/!0E(!$/+%.(/2(!&+!4$++()(/0!2&,#&/(/0*!&/!R)&O0EU!1&)(&'()W!0E(!)(*.%0*!&+!0E(!G)(3QK4&O/!G;!0)3/*,$**$&/!2E3//(%!3)(!&/%;!0(/030$'(U!N0E()!#&0(/0$3%%;!$,#&)03/0!2E3//(%*W!*.2E!3*!<D:W!$,#&)0*!3/4!+$/3/2$3%!*(20&)!%$/Q3R(*W!OE$2E!E3'(!*0).20.)3%!$,#320*!&/!0E(!(2&/&,;!$/!0E(!%&/R!)./W!2()03$/%;!O3))3/0!+.)0E()!*0.4;U!
N.)!3/3%;*$*!2&/+$),*!0E(!$,#&)03/0!)&%(!#%3;(4!G;!0E(!-.)&#(3/!V/$&/!+&)!0E(!1&)&223/!3/4!5./$*$3/!(2&/&,$(*U!=(!/&0(W!E&O('()W!0E30!0E$*!2%&*(!0$(!,$RE0!3%*&!)(#)(*(/0!3!2E3%%(/R(!+&)!0E(!+.0.)(U!<&)!0E(!0O&!2&./0)$(*W!(/E3/2$/R!2&,#(0$0$'(/(**!3/4!4$'()*$+;$/R!0)34(!+%&O*!$*!(**(/0$3%!+&)!*.*03$/$/R!+.0.)(!R)&O0EU!
! 78!
APPE NDI X . T rade W eights from the G lobal E conomic Environment (G E E) !
c%&G3%!-2&/&,$2!-/'$)&/,(/0!Sc--T!4303!3)(!R)&.#!2&,#&*$0(*W!G3*(4!&/!O($RE0(4!3'()3R(*!&+!*(%(20(4!=&)%4!-2&/&,$2!N.0%&&Q!S=-NT!'3)$3G%(*!+)&,!0E(!2&./0);!4303G3*(*U!5E(!0)34(!O($RE0*!3)(!4()$'(4!+)&,!0E(!:1<`*!D$)(20$&/!&+!5)34(!SDN5T!4303G3*(U!-'();!2&./0);!E3*!+&.)!*(0*!&+!0)34(!O($RE0*W!$U(UW!0E(!$,#&)0*!3/4!(P#&)0*!O($RE0*!+&)!3%%!2&./0)$(*!3*!#3)0/()*W!3/4!0E(!$,#&)0*!3/4!(P#&)0*!O($RE0*!+&)!&/%;!0E(!34'3/2(4!(2&/&,$(*U!5E(!O($RE0*!3)(!23%2.%30(4!+)&,!0E(!c--!)(#&)0$/R!2&./0);`*!0)34(!O$0E!#3)0/()!OE$2E!2&,#)$*(!e\!#()2(/0!&+!0E(!)(#&)0()`*!0&03%!(P#&)0*!&)!$,#&)0*U!5E(!344$0$&/3%!\!#()2(/0!#3)0/()!2&./0)$(*!&+!0E(!)(#&)0()`*!0)34(!4303!4&!/&0!O3))3/0!3/;!$,#)&'(,(/0!$/!0E(!&'()3%%!0)34(!O($RE0*U!5E(!c--!23%2.%30(*!3!)(#&)0$/R!2&./0);k*!*()$(*!/&0!+)&,!0E(!)(#&)0$/R!2&./0);k*!4303!G.0!+)&,!0E(!3RR)(R30(4!*.,!&+!0E(!O($RE0(4!#()2(/03R(!2E3/R(*!&+!$0*!#3)0/()*k!4303!+&)!3!R$'(/!=-N!*()$(*U!
!
5E(!3G&'(!03G%(*!*E&O!0E(!c--!O($RE0*!.*(4!+&)!23%2.%30$/R!0E(!2&./0);K*#(2$+$2!2&,#&*$0(!-V!R)&O0E!)30(* S TEU
tg U!C*!O(!O3/0!0&!300)$G.0(!O($RE0*!0&!0E(!cD>!R)&O0E!&+!0E(!-V!2&./0)$(*W!0E(!-V!2&./0)$(*`!O($RE0*!E3'(!G((/!/&),3%$F(4!*.2E!0E30!0E(!*.,!$*!988U!5E(!2&./0);K*#(2$+$2!2&,#&*$0(!cD>!R)&O0E!)30(! S TEU
tg !23/!G(!(P#)(**(4!3*!+&%%&O*W!G3*(4!&/!0E(!O($RE0* it !0E(!-V!
2&./0)$(*!03Q(!$/!1&)&22&`*!3/4!5./$*$3`*!(P#&)0*!&+!R&&4*W!)(*#(20$'(%;W!3/4!&/!0E(*(!2&./0)$(*`!R)&O0E!)30(*!R$[!
9
9
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MoroccoFrance 36.36Spain 33.42United Kingdom 8.22Italy 7.87Belgium 5.33Germany 5.20Netherlands 3.60Total 100
TunisiaFrance 42.2Italy 29.1Germany 10.9Spain 7.6Belgium 3.7United Kingdom 3.5Netherlands 2.9Total 100
! 79!
References !C)(FQ$W!bUW!bU!BE()$+W!3/4!HU!>$&0)&O*Q$W!788eW!n5&.)$*,!"#(2$3%$F30$&/!3/4!-2&/&,$2!
D('(%&#,(/0[!-'$4(/2(!+)&,!0E(!VZ-"BN!=&)%4!p()$03R(!Y$*0,” :1<!=&)Q$/R!>3#()!8e?9hg!S=3*E$/R0&/[!:/0()/30$&/3%!1&/(03);!<./4TU!
!L3P0()W!1UW!3/4!1U!_&.#3)$0*3*W!788\W!nD(0(),$/3/0*!&+!L.*$/(**!B;2%(!B&,&'(,(/0[!3!b&G.*0!
C/3%;*$*,”!Journal of Monetary EconomicsW!f&%U!\7S9TW!H3/.3);W!##U99@i\hU!!L3;&.,$W!5U!3/4!CU!"O$*0&/W!788eW!n<&)($R/!-/03/R%(,(/0*]!-*0$,30$/R!0E(!"&.)2(!3/4!"$F(!&+!
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=&)Q$/R!>3#()!8e?9\@!S=3*E$/R0&/[!:/0()/30$&/3%!1&/(03);!<./4TU!!:,G*W!H(3/!S788^TW!n5)34(W!<$/3/2(W!"#(2$3%$F30$&/W!3/4!";/2E)&/$F30$&/,”!Review of Economics
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!5&.J3*KL()/30MW!H&(%W!L&$%(3.!Y&Q&W!3/4!D&,$/$X.(!"$,3)4W!788eW!n:/'(*0$R30$/R!c)&O0E!
"#$%%&'()*!+)&,!-.)&#(,”!5./$*$3!"(%(20(4!:**.(*!>3#()W!:1<!B&./0);!b(#&)0!!Z&U!98?98eU!!
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