Initiating Coverage | Airlines Initiating Coverage | Airlines Initiating Coverage | Airlines Initiating Coverage | Airlines Initiating Coverage | Airlines Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report SpiceJet is one of the fastest growing airlines in the aviation industry, with a market share of around 12%. Given its strong expansion plans, revival in the economy and strong passenger growth, we have assigned a target multiple of 9x FY2012E EPS of Rs9.3 to arrive at a target price of Rs84, implying an upside of 33%. Hence, Hence, Hence, Hence, Hence, we Initiate Coverage on the stock with a Buy recommendation. we Initiate Coverage on the stock with a Buy recommendation. we Initiate Coverage on the stock with a Buy recommendation. we Initiate Coverage on the stock with a Buy recommendation. we Initiate Coverage on the stock with a Buy recommendation. Load factors expected to remain healthy: oad factors expected to remain healthy: oad factors expected to remain healthy: oad factors expected to remain healthy: oad factors expected to remain healthy: Driven by huge losses, most airlines reduced fleets and no new capacities were added since FY2009. With FCCs like Air India and Kingfisher still making huge losses, and Jet Airways barely breaking even, we expect negligible fleet additions over FY2010-11E. But demand has bounced back sharply in 9MFY2010 and Low-Cost Carriers (LCCs) have been reporting 80%+ load factors. Given that the demand is expected to outpace supply, the load factors are expected to remain around 77% for FY2011E. Higher L Higher L Higher L Higher L Higher Load F oad F oad F oad F oad Factor to increase P actor to increase P actor to increase P actor to increase P actor to increase Profitability: rofitability: rofitability: rofitability: rofitability: With the Aviation industry characterised by very high operating leverage, an improvement in the load factor is expected to drive a substantial spurt in Profits. With 80% (66% in 3QFY2009) load factors, SpiceJet's Net Profit shot up to Rs109cr in 3QFY2010 vs. Rs43cr loss in 3QFY2009. Additionally, aided by a strong fleet addition (19% CAGR over FY2010-12E), we expect SpiceJet's Net Profit to grow at a 51% CAGR to Rs377cr in FY2012E. Increasing fleet and strengthening Balance Sheet: Increasing fleet and strengthening Balance Sheet: Increasing fleet and strengthening Balance Sheet: Increasing fleet and strengthening Balance Sheet: Increasing fleet and strengthening Balance Sheet: SpiceJet is expected to build a strong cash reserve of Rs874cr as on FY2011E and of Rs1,311cr by FY2012E. In a worst-case scenario, even if SpiceJet witnesses a load factor of just 50% (lowest load factor till date of 67% in FY2009), it would have enough cash to sustain its operational expenditure for 14 months, without diluting any equity. With US $79.8mn FCCBs getting converted by December 2010 and ~Rs350cr of QIP (not factored), Balance Sheet strength will go up further, with a Net Worth of Rs989.4cr in FY2012E. Sharan Lillaney Sharan Lillaney Sharan Lillaney Sharan Lillaney Sharan Lillaney +91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 338 Email: [email protected]May 3, 2010 SpiceJet SpiceJet SpiceJet SpiceJet SpiceJet BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY Flying into Clear Skies CMP Rs62 Target Price Rs84 Stock Info Shareholding Pattern (%) Sector Airlines Market Cap (Rs cr) 1,505 Beta 0.9 52 Week High / Low 65/14 Avg. Daily Volume 3942106 Face Value (Rs) 10 BSE Sensex 17,559 Nifty 5,278 Reuters Code SPJT.BO Bloomberg Code SJET@IN Promoters 12.9 MF / Banks / Indian FIs 34.9 FII / NRIs / OCBs 28.0 Indian Public / Others 24.2 Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr Sensex 5.4 52.5 23.5 SpiceJet 5.7 335.6 38.7 Investment Period 12 Months Source: Company, Angel Research Key Financials Y/E March (Rs cr) Y/E March (Rs cr) Y/E March (Rs cr) Y/E March (Rs cr) Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2009 FY2009 FY2009 FY2009 FY2010E FY2010E FY2010E FY2010E FY2010E FY2011E FY2011E FY2011E FY2011E FY2011E FY2012E FY2012E FY2012E FY2012E FY2012E Net Sales Net Sales Net Sales Net Sales Net Sales 1,689 1,689 1,689 1,689 1,689 2,206 2,206 2,206 2,206 2,206 2,687 2,687 2,687 2,687 2,687 3,158 3,158 3,158 3,158 3,158 % chg 30.5 30.6 21.8 17.5 Net P Net P Net P Net P Net Profit rofit rofit rofit rofit (352.6) (352.6) (352.6) (352.6) (352.6) 165.7 165.7 165.7 165.7 165.7 300.5 300.5 300.5 300.5 300.5 376.5 376.5 376.5 376.5 376.5 % chg 164.1 (147.0) 81.3 25.3 FDEPS (Rs) FDEPS (Rs) FDEPS (Rs) FDEPS (Rs) FDEPS (Rs) (14.6) (14.6) (14.6) (14.6) (14.6) 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 EBITDA Margin (%) (24.8) 5.9 11.9 12.6 P/E (x) (4.3) 9.1 8.4 6.7 P/CEPS (x) (4.4) 8.7 8.2 6.6 RoE (%) 175.6 (47.8) 172.2 47.0 RoCE (%) (135.9) 86.3 74.0 48.5 P/BV (x) (3.5) (5.7) 4.1 2.6 EV/Sales (x) 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.4 EV/EBITDA (x) (4.0) 11.2 5.2 3.1
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
SpiceJet is one of the fastest growing airlines in the aviation industry, with a marketshare of around 12%. Given its strong expansion plans, revival in the economyand strong passenger growth, we have assigned a target multiple of 9x FY2012EEPS of Rs9.3 to arrive at a target price of Rs84, implying an upside of 33%. Hence,Hence,Hence,Hence,Hence,we Initiate Coverage on the stock with a Buy recommendation.we Initiate Coverage on the stock with a Buy recommendation.we Initiate Coverage on the stock with a Buy recommendation.we Initiate Coverage on the stock with a Buy recommendation.we Initiate Coverage on the stock with a Buy recommendation.
LLLLLoad factors expected to remain healthy:oad factors expected to remain healthy:oad factors expected to remain healthy:oad factors expected to remain healthy:oad factors expected to remain healthy: Driven by huge losses, most airlinesreduced fleets and no new capacities were added since FY2009. With FCCs like AirIndia and Kingfisher still making huge losses, and Jet Airways barely breakingeven, we expect negligible fleet additions over FY2010-11E. But demand hasbounced back sharply in 9MFY2010 and Low-Cost Carriers (LCCs) have beenreporting 80%+ load factors. Given that the demand is expected to outpace supply,the load factors are expected to remain around 77% for FY2011E.
Higher LHigher LHigher LHigher LHigher Load Foad Foad Foad Foad Factor to increase Pactor to increase Pactor to increase Pactor to increase Pactor to increase Profitability:rofitability:rofitability:rofitability:rofitability: With the Aviation industry characterisedby very high operating leverage, an improvement in the load factor is expected todrive a substantial spurt in Profits. With 80% (66% in 3QFY2009) load factors,SpiceJet's Net Profit shot up to Rs109cr in 3QFY2010 vs. Rs43cr loss in 3QFY2009.Additionally, aided by a strong fleet addition (19% CAGR over FY2010-12E), weexpect SpiceJet's Net Profit to grow at a 51% CAGR to Rs377cr in FY2012E.
Increasing fleet and strengthening Balance Sheet: Increasing fleet and strengthening Balance Sheet: Increasing fleet and strengthening Balance Sheet: Increasing fleet and strengthening Balance Sheet: Increasing fleet and strengthening Balance Sheet: SpiceJet is expected to build astrong cash reserve of Rs874cr as on FY2011E and of Rs1,311cr by FY2012E. In aworst-case scenario, even if SpiceJet witnesses a load factor of just 50% (lowestload factor till date of 67% in FY2009), it would have enough cash to sustain itsoperational expenditure for 14 months, without diluting any equity. With US $79.8mnFCCBs getting converted by December 2010 and ~Rs350cr of QIP (not factored),Balance Sheet strength will go up further, with a Net Worth of Rs989.4cr in FY2012E.
Key FinancialsY/E March (Rs cr)Y/E March (Rs cr)Y/E March (Rs cr)Y/E March (Rs cr)Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009FY2009FY2009FY2009FY2009 FY2010EFY2010EFY2010EFY2010EFY2010E FY2011EFY2011EFY2011EFY2011EFY2011E FY2012EFY2012EFY2012EFY2012EFY2012E
Net SalesNet SalesNet SalesNet SalesNet Sales 1,6891,6891,6891,6891,689 2,2062,2062,2062,2062,206 2,6872,6872,6872,6872,687 3,1583,1583,1583,1583,158
Prior to the economic turmoil, the domestic aviation industry witnessed strong demandin passenger traffic, registering a CAGR of 18% over FY2001-2008. With the growingdemand in passenger traffic, airline companies started ramping up their capacity(some by nearly 2 times) to meet the current and the future demand, which resulted ina huge increase in capacity in terms of Available Seat Kilometres (ASKM), which nearlydoubled from 35,077mn in FY2006 to 60,590mn in FY2008). However, the Aviationsector was amongst the worst hit by the economic crisis in FY2009, where demand interms of passenger traffic declined by 11%, from 44.5mn in FY2008 to 39.5mn inFY2009, which was the biggest fall in a decade. Due to the huge capacity expansionin the last few years and the plummeting demand in FY2009, almost all airlinessuffered huge losses, which forced some companies to rationalise their capacity to cutdown costs and to reduce future losses (Kingfisher rationalised its fleet from 88 to 66).
However, demand has bounced back significantly over the last 9MFY2010 and isexpected to grow by 13% for the whole FY2010E. Historically, economic growth hasbeen the primary driver of air traffic and this relationship has been even more evidentin developing countries. It has been observed that aviation grows at the rate of 1.2 to1.8 times the GDP (1.2 times in developed nations and 1.8 times in developing countrieswith pent-up demand). Assuming an annual GDP growth of ~8% and a 1.5 timesmultiple, it is estimated that domestic aviation traffic alone will grow around by12-13% annually, or by 2.5 times, from the current 40mn passengers to 100mnpassengers by 2020. Given that the demand has historically grown at an average ofaround a 13.7% CAGR over the last ten years, we expect this trend to continue, withan expected GDP of 8-9% YoY for the next three years; thus, we expect the passengertraffic demand to register CAGR of around 13% over FY2010E-FY2012E. In absoluteterms, we expect the passenger traffic to be around 44.6mn FY2010E and 56.6mn inFY2012E.
Source: DGCA, Angel Research
Exhibit 1: Strong passenger growth to continue
Passengers Carried (LHS) Growth (RHS)
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
FY2001
FY2002
FY2003
FY2004
FY2005
FY2006
FY2007
FY2008
FY2009
FY2010E
FY2011E
FY2012E
(%)
(mn)
The passenger traffic demand is expectedThe passenger traffic demand is expectedThe passenger traffic demand is expectedThe passenger traffic demand is expectedThe passenger traffic demand is expectedto register a CAto register a CAto register a CAto register a CAto register a CAGR of around 13% overGR of around 13% overGR of around 13% overGR of around 13% overGR of around 13% overFY2010EFY2010EFY2010EFY2010EFY2010E-FY2012E-FY2012E-FY2012E-FY2012E-FY2012E.....
May 3, 2010 3
SpiceJet | Initiating Coverage
The long term demand is expected to remain high due to the low penetration of air
traffic in India. It is estimated that only 43 travellers per 1,000 travel by air, which is 12
times lower when compared to the USA (520/1,000), and nearly 5 times lower than
China (215/1,000). According to research done by IATA PaxIS, Global Insight and
Airbus, it was noted that air trips per capita increases exponentially when the Real
GDP Per Capita level rises above the US $1000 level, and until the US $10,000 level.
After the US $10,000 level, the growth tends to slow down considerably, which can be
seen in the case of all developed nations. Currently, India's Real GDP per capita is at
US $1,032, and is expected to grow by around 12-14% annually. This implies that the
Indian aviation sector as a whole is going to experience enormous growth over the
next 15-20 years. Airbus expects the sector to register a 10% CAGR over the next
20 years.
Source: IMF, Airbus
Exhibit 2: India to experience highest domestic growth
Real GDP per capita (2009) 20 years annual domestic growth forecast
Exhibit 3: Large potential to increase propensity to travel
Source: IATA PaxIS, Global Insight, Airbus; Note:GDP in 2005 US$
Low penetration of air traffic in India
The long term demand is expected toThe long term demand is expected toThe long term demand is expected toThe long term demand is expected toThe long term demand is expected to
remain high due to the low penetrationremain high due to the low penetrationremain high due to the low penetrationremain high due to the low penetrationremain high due to the low penetration
of air traffic in Indiaof air traffic in Indiaof air traffic in Indiaof air traffic in Indiaof air traffic in India
May 3, 2010 4
SpiceJet | Initiating Coverage
No. of AircraftsNo. of AircraftsNo. of AircraftsNo. of AircraftsNo. of Aircrafts FY2010EFY2010EFY2010EFY2010EFY2010E FY2011EFY2011EFY2011EFY2011EFY2011E FY2012EFY2012EFY2012EFY2012EFY2012E FY2013EFY2013EFY2013EFY2013EFY2013E
The major triggers for profitability for the whole aviation sector in FY2011E and FY2012E
will be lower capacity additions, which will lead to greater demand when compared
to supply, resulting in higher profitability due to increasing load factors. FY2011E will
see a major supply-demand gap being created, as demand is expected to increase by
13% while supply is expected to rise by only 5%.
We expect the total Domestic fleet size to increase by around 5% in FY2011E and by
around 8% in FY2012E. Prior to the economic downturn, huge orders were placed by
Kingfisher, Indian Airlines and Jet airways, which have now been deferred by at least
18 months; thus, any major capacity expansion for these airlines will only come in
after FY2012E, which will give a strong boost to LCC players like SpiceJet to expand
their market share and to maintain a high load factor. The major chunk of the growth
in domestic fleet size in FY2011E and FY2012E will be added by the two LCCs, SpiceJet
and IndiGo airlines, since these are the only companies that are going ahead with
their orders and are expected to take delivery on time.
The total Domestic fleet size to increaseThe total Domestic fleet size to increaseThe total Domestic fleet size to increaseThe total Domestic fleet size to increaseThe total Domestic fleet size to increase
by only around 5% in FY2011E and byby only around 5% in FY2011E and byby only around 5% in FY2011E and byby only around 5% in FY2011E and byby only around 5% in FY2011E and by
around 8% in FY2012Earound 8% in FY2012Earound 8% in FY2012Earound 8% in FY2012Earound 8% in FY2012E
May 3, 2010 5
SpiceJet | Initiating Coverage
Strong Passenger growth to resume for SpiceJet
Currently, LCCs are the preferred mode for domestic airline travellers as, being
cost-efficient, they can provide cheaper tickets. This would benefit LCCs such as SpiceJet,
which can offer significantly lower fares to attract more value-conscious passengers.
In fact, there has been a considerable shift in passenger traffic towards LCCs, with
more than 55% passengers preferring them. This has even led to Full-Cost Carriers
(FCCs) like Jet and Kingfisher to convert part of their capacity to a no-frills, low-cost
model.
SpiceJet is one of the fastest growing LCCs, and, given the change in preference from
FCCs to LCCs, it is best placed to benefit from the economic recovery and the growing
passenger traffic demand. Even when the Industry passenger traffic declined by 11%
in FY2009, SpiceJet increased the number of passengers carried, from 4.5mn to
4.59mn in FY2009, due to its low-cost model. Moreover, the efficacy of the low-cost
model was clearly noticeable, as Spicejet increased its market share by more than
50%, from 8% in FY2008 to around 12% in FY2009, with a corresponding increase
of only 28% in fleet size in FY2009.
Source: DGCA, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Domestic airlines market share
We expect SpiceJet's passenger growth to continue at the previous levels of around
50% CAGR and which will be supported by its fleet expansion plans. We expect the
company to carry around 6.6mn passengers in FY2010E (a growth of ~44%), and
expect this growth to continue to 7.9mn and 9.3mn passengers in FY2011E and
FY2012E, respectively.
The company is expected to carry aroundThe company is expected to carry aroundThe company is expected to carry aroundThe company is expected to carry aroundThe company is expected to carry around
6.6mn passengers in FY2010E (a growth6.6mn passengers in FY2010E (a growth6.6mn passengers in FY2010E (a growth6.6mn passengers in FY2010E (a growth6.6mn passengers in FY2010E (a growth
of ~44%)of ~44%)of ~44%)of ~44%)of ~44%)
SpiceJet increased its market share bySpiceJet increased its market share bySpiceJet increased its market share bySpiceJet increased its market share bySpiceJet increased its market share by
more than 50%, from 8% in FY2008 tomore than 50%, from 8% in FY2008 tomore than 50%, from 8% in FY2008 tomore than 50%, from 8% in FY2008 tomore than 50%, from 8% in FY2008 to
around 12% in FY2009around 12% in FY2009around 12% in FY2009around 12% in FY2009around 12% in FY2009
May 3, 2010 6
SpiceJet | Initiating Coverage
Load Factors to improve due to lower capacity expansion
With the demand coming back to normal after the economic recovery, and with only
a few capacity additions (after the capacity rationalisation by FCCs in FY2009), all
LCCs have currently reported strong Load Factors of around 80%+. SpiceJet has
reported load factors to the tune of 82% and 81% for the months of January and
February, 2010, respectively. Going forward, we expect the load factors to remain
high, as the demand is expected to outpace the supply, with most companies (Jet
Airways and Kingfisher) having deferred their orders, which will lead to a low growth
rate in the ASKM and a higher growth in the RPKM (Revenue Performed Kilometres).
We expect the domestic ASKM to remain constant for FY2010E at 59,160mn, as
hardly any new fleets have been added during the year; for FY2012E, the ASKM is
expected to be around 68,981mn. On the other hand, demand is expected to continue
its robust growth; thus, the RPKM is expected to be around 42,606mn in FY2010E and
to increase to 54,403mn in FY2012E. The overall domestic industry load factors are
expected to be around 72% in FY2010E, 77% in FY2011E and 79% in FY2012E.
Source: DGCA, Angel Research
Exhibit 7: ASKM to grow at a slower rate for the industry
The load factors are expected to remainThe load factors are expected to remainThe load factors are expected to remainThe load factors are expected to remainThe load factors are expected to remain
high, as the demand is expected tohigh, as the demand is expected tohigh, as the demand is expected tohigh, as the demand is expected tohigh, as the demand is expected to
outpace the supplyoutpace the supplyoutpace the supplyoutpace the supplyoutpace the supply
May 3, 2010 7
SpiceJet | Initiating Coverage
Available Seat Kms(LHS, mn) KMS Performed(LHS, mn) Load Factor (RHS)
We have conducted an analysis between the Financial Lease and the Operating Leasebusiness models adopted by different airline companies, to find out which is bestsuited for the Indian aviation sector, and how the profitability of the companies isdetermined by the model that they adapt. Companies such as Kingfisher and JetAirways, which use the financial lease mode where they own aircrafts, have shownweaker balance sheets, owing to a higher incidence of depreciation and interest costs,as compared to companies like SpiceJet, which follow the operating lease model,where, rather than buying the aircraft, they lease it for a fixed period of time.
SpiceJet is a no frills airline; thus, its ticket prices does not include any additionalservices, which helps the company reduce its average Pax yields. This is unlike JetAirways, which provides food and beverage services, included in the cost of the ticket,and which results in higher Pax yields. SpiceJet operates the single-fleet type, Boeing737 NG, which helps them to reduce their maintainance cost by 20% per seat. SpiceJethas the highest aircraft utilisation rate of 12 hours, which helps the company add oneextra flight a day with a similar fixed cost, when compared to its peers. Additionally,SpiceJet has a cost advantage over Jet Airways, as it has an average of 195 seats peraircraft, which is nearly 22% more when compared to an average of 160 seats/aircraft for Jet Airways (Domestic).
This difference in seats per aircrafts provides SpiceJet with an advantage over JetAirways, since, with most of the costs are fixed per aircraft, these additional seats helpSpiceJet in reducing its cost per aircraft by generating more revenue at the same cost.As a result of this, SpiceJet can reduce the average Pax yield without reducing itsprofitability margin. For 9MFY2010, The average Pax yield for SpiceJet is aroundRs3,256, compared to a Pax yield of Rs4,706 for Jet Airways. It has been observedthat when the Pax yield moves above Rs3,750, it results in a declining load factor. Thisis clearly visible in the case of SpiceJet (Pax yield of Rs3,256), which reported a 77%load factor, while Jet Airways (Pax yield of Rs3,750) managed to generate acomparatively lower load Factor of 71% for 9MFY2010.
Since most of the costs are fixed perSince most of the costs are fixed perSince most of the costs are fixed perSince most of the costs are fixed perSince most of the costs are fixed peraircraft, additional seats per aircraft helpaircraft, additional seats per aircraft helpaircraft, additional seats per aircraft helpaircraft, additional seats per aircraft helpaircraft, additional seats per aircraft helpSpiceJet in reducing their cost per aircraftSpiceJet in reducing their cost per aircraftSpiceJet in reducing their cost per aircraftSpiceJet in reducing their cost per aircraftSpiceJet in reducing their cost per aircraft
May 3, 2010 8
SpiceJet | Initiating Coverage
Due to its higher Pax yield, Jet Airways is able to generate a higher Revenue/ASKM ofRs4.3, compared to SpiceJet's Revenue/ASKM of only Rs2.4. However, on the EBITDAlevel, Jet Airways managed to generate only Rs0.4/ASKM, which was lower thanSpiceJet's Rs0.5/ASKM, mainly because of higher operating costs. In percentage terms,Jet Airways reported an 8.8% margin, which is nearly half of SpiceJet's margin of19%. However, Jet Airways (Domestic + International) registered a 77% load factor,on the back of better performance from international operations (load factor of 80%).On the EBITDAR level, Jet Airways (Domestic + International) reported a margin of18%.
The choice of business model has become the main differentiator between SpiceJetand Jet Airways. While SpiceJet operates on a 100% operating lease model, Jet Airwaysoperates on a mix of a financial lease and operating lease model. Since Jet Airways isa highly-leveraged company, on the back of its mixed lease model (under which itfinances aircraft purchases through debt), the interest and depreciation costs havebecome major causes of concern. Although both the companies managed almostsimilar margins of 18% and 19% at the EBITDAR level, the difference in the PBT ishuge. At the PBT level, SpiceJet reported a margin of 2.1%, largely because thedepreciation and interest costs are negligible (does not own any aircrafts). On theother hand, Jet Airways reported a negative PBT margin of 6.9%, inspite of similarEBITDAR margins, because of the high depreciation cost on their owned aircraft andthe high interest cost on the outstanding debt. We believe that the financial leasemodel has been a major impediment for Jet Airways.
Hence, we believe that the operating lease model is better than the financial leasemodel, as rentals on aircraft cost 10-11% of the total value of the aircraft annually;additionally, these contracts are highly flexible and short-term in nature (3-8 years). Inthe airline industry, where the working capital requirement is generally negative, theoperating lease model makes the whole business non-capital intensive.
Companies need to be profitable to increase capacity
All aviation companies in India have been in the red in FY2009, and this fact has notbeen any different for the 9MFY2010 except in the case of SpiceJet, which is the onlylisted player to have reported a profit of Rs34cr (as against a loss of Rs526cr for JetAirways and Rs1,075cr for Kingfisher). Since companies such as Jet Airways andKingfisher have been making huge losses over the last couple of years, and are highlyfinancially leveraged, not many aircraft leasing companies are interested in leasingout planes to them, since there is the risk of default on regular lease payments (whichis the case for Paramount Airlines). Thus, if these companies have to expand their fleetsize, we believe that they first have to be profitable for at least a couple of years, so asto fund their future expansion through internal accruals, rather than adding on moredebt and increasing their interest burden.
Exhbit 9: Business Model Comparison (9MFY2010) (Rs cr)(Rs cr)(Rs cr)(Rs cr)(Rs cr)
Source: Company, Angel Research
May 3, 2010 10
SpiceJet | Initiating Coverage
High Load factor to increase profitability
Given that almost all costs are largely fixed in the Aviation Industry, the improvementin the load factor is expected to drive a substantial spurt in Profits. This was clearlyvisible for SpiceJet, which reported an average load factor of 80% over the last sixmonths (among the highest in the industry), and reported Net Profit of Rs109cr (loss ofRs43cr in 3QFY2009) in 3QFY2010. SpiceJet's EBITDAR Margin, at 31%, is also thehighest compared to its listed peers (20.2% for Jet Airways, 17.7% for JetLite), due toits Operating lease-based, low-cost models.
Going forward, with hardly a 5% increase expected in capacity in FY2011E, the wholedomestic aviation sector is going to experience high load factors. Historically, SpiceJethas been reporting better load factors than the industry, and we expect this trend tocontinue in the future, as well. With strong expansion plans, robust passenger growthand lower capacity additions, SpiceJet is expected to experience load factors of around76% for FY2010E, 81% in FY2011E and 80% in FY2012E.
With an expected increase in fleet size from 19 planes to around 27 planes by FY2012E(4 planes in CY2011E and 4 planes in CY2012E), SpiceJet is expected to increase itspassengers carried from 4.6mn in FY2009 to 6.6mn in FY2010E and to 9.3mn inFY2012E, at an estimated CAGR of 26% over FY2009-FY2012E. This is higher thanthe estimated overall passenger CAGR of 13% for the entire industry over the sameperiod, and will result in an increase in the market share for SpiceJet (expected toincrease from 12% in FY2009 to 17% in FY2012E).
Gross Profit/ASKM Cost/ASKM Load Factor
1.14
0.99 0.99 1.03
1.58
1.79 1.76
1.52 1.481.41
1.61
1.43
1.471.41
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E
(%)
(Rs)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 10: Profits to surge with increasing load factors
Given that almost all costs are largelyGiven that almost all costs are largelyGiven that almost all costs are largelyGiven that almost all costs are largelyGiven that almost all costs are largelyfixed in the Aviation Industryfixed in the Aviation Industryfixed in the Aviation Industryfixed in the Aviation Industryfixed in the Aviation Industry, the, the, the, the, theimprovement in the load factor isimprovement in the load factor isimprovement in the load factor isimprovement in the load factor isimprovement in the load factor isexpected to drive a substantial spurt inexpected to drive a substantial spurt inexpected to drive a substantial spurt inexpected to drive a substantial spurt inexpected to drive a substantial spurt inPPPPProfitsrofitsrofitsrofitsrofits
May 3, 2010 11
SpiceJet | Initiating Coverage
Strong expansion plans to aid robust revenue growth
SpiceJet will be taking delivery of about 9 aircrafts by FY2012E based on its existingorders, taking its total fleet size to 27 aircrafts. The increase in capacity and strongload factors will provide a strong revenue visibility for SpiceJet. The company's revenuesare expected to grow at a CAGR of 23% over FY2009-FY2012E, and, concurrently, itsnet profit is expected to register a CAGR of 31% over FY2010E-FY2012E, in absoluteterm an increase of Rs300cr & Rs377cr in FY2011E-12E and the company's revenuesare expected to be around Rs2,206cr in FY2010E, Rs2,687cr in FY2011E and Rs3,158crin FY2012E.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 11: Strong revenues contributing to profits
Operating Revenue Net Profit(1,000)
(500)
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E
(Rs
cr)
Strengthening Balance Sheet
Substantial increase in Networth and Cash Reserves
The company's US $79.8mn FCCBs are likely to get converted into equity by December2010 (at Rs25/share). After the conversion, the total outstanding equity will stand at40.4cr shares. After the conversion of the FCCBs, the company will have a total ofRs82cr of debt on its books, which we expect it to repay by the end of FY2011E.SpiceJet is also planning to raise around Rs350cr through a QIP to fund its futureexpansion plans. Along with its strong profitability, the company's Balance sheet strengthwill also go up significantly, with an estimated Net worth of about Rs989.4cr, a netcash balance of Rs1,311cr by FY2012E.
We expect SpiceJet to report strong profitability for FY2011E, due to revived demandand a relatively lower domestic fleet addition (just 5%). In order to test the balancesheet strength of the company, we have undertaken a scenario analysis to identify itssustainability on the back of its cash position. SpiceJet is expected to build a strongcash reserve of Rs874cr as on FY2011E. In a worst case scenario, where SpiceJetwitnesses a load factor of just 50%, it would have enough cash to sustain its operationalexpenditure for 14 months, without diluting any equity. Historically, SpiceJet haswitnessed a lowest load factor of 67% in FY2009; hence, it has a substantial marginof safety, with its average load factor being 76% between FY2006-2009. Even if SpiceJetexperiences lower load factors to the extent of 65% in FY2012E, it is expected to have
SpiceJet will be taking delivery of aboutSpiceJet will be taking delivery of aboutSpiceJet will be taking delivery of aboutSpiceJet will be taking delivery of aboutSpiceJet will be taking delivery of about9 aircrafts by FY2012E based on its9 aircrafts by FY2012E based on its9 aircrafts by FY2012E based on its9 aircrafts by FY2012E based on its9 aircrafts by FY2012E based on itsexisting orders, taking its total fleet sizeexisting orders, taking its total fleet sizeexisting orders, taking its total fleet sizeexisting orders, taking its total fleet sizeexisting orders, taking its total fleet sizeto 27 aircraftsto 27 aircraftsto 27 aircraftsto 27 aircraftsto 27 aircrafts
The company's Balance sheet strengthThe company's Balance sheet strengthThe company's Balance sheet strengthThe company's Balance sheet strengthThe company's Balance sheet strengthwill also go up significantlywill also go up significantlywill also go up significantlywill also go up significantlywill also go up significantly, with an, with an, with an, with an, with anestimated Net worth of about Rs989.4crestimated Net worth of about Rs989.4crestimated Net worth of about Rs989.4crestimated Net worth of about Rs989.4crestimated Net worth of about Rs989.4cr,,,,,a net cash balance of Rs1,311cr bya net cash balance of Rs1,311cr bya net cash balance of Rs1,311cr bya net cash balance of Rs1,311cr bya net cash balance of Rs1,311cr byFY2012EFY2012EFY2012EFY2012EFY2012E.....
In a worstIn a worstIn a worstIn a worstIn a worst-----case scenario, where SpiceJetcase scenario, where SpiceJetcase scenario, where SpiceJetcase scenario, where SpiceJetcase scenario, where SpiceJetwitnesses a load factor of just 50%, itwitnesses a load factor of just 50%, itwitnesses a load factor of just 50%, itwitnesses a load factor of just 50%, itwitnesses a load factor of just 50%, itwould have enough cash to sustain itswould have enough cash to sustain itswould have enough cash to sustain itswould have enough cash to sustain itswould have enough cash to sustain itsoperational expenditure for 14 months,operational expenditure for 14 months,operational expenditure for 14 months,operational expenditure for 14 months,operational expenditure for 14 months,without diluting any equitywithout diluting any equitywithout diluting any equitywithout diluting any equitywithout diluting any equity
May 3, 2010 12
SpiceJet | Initiating Coverage
Lower-than-expected traffic growth
Any downturn in the economy can lead to lower-than-expected passenger traffic growth,which can have a negative impact on load factors, and can eventually have a negativeimpact on the profitability.
PAT (FY2012E) (582) (422) (262) (103) 57 217 377 536Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 13: Sensitivity of PAT to change in low factors (Rs cr)
Concerns
Low Entry Barriers and Highly Competitive
There is low entry barrier for the aviation sector, as any company can start an airlinebased on the operating lease model, which requires minimum capital to begin withand most of the fixed assets can be acquired at 1% of the total cost per month. Theentry of new players can lead to an increase in capacity and will eventually lead to anincrease in competition among airlines resulting in a price war as companies will beforced to reduce their ticket prices, which will result in a lower average yield and willhave a negative impact on revenues in the short run (it can also lead to losses). Suchintensive competition was clearly visible during FY2007-08, due to excessive capacityadditions, which resulted in lower industry load factors and lower profitability. Existingplayers can also increase their capacity which will lead to lower than expected loadfactor due to higher capacity.
PAT (FY2012E) (582) (422) (262) (103) 57 217 377 536
Cash / EBITDA Loss (x) 14 18 28 57 - - - -
Exhibit 12: Scenario Analysis for FY2012E (Rs cr)
Source: Company, Angel Research
built a strong cash position to sustain itself for nearly five years. Given its capability tosurvive the downturns with lower leverage, we expect SpiceJet to outperform its peers.
May 3, 2010 13
SpiceJet | Initiating Coverage
ATF prices
Historically, an increase in ATF prices usually leads to an increase in Pax Yields, becausethe company passes on the additional fuel cost to the consumers. It is noted that theload factor lends to dip dramatically when the Pax Yield moves above the Rs3,750level. Given the current scenario, the Pax Yield is expected to be around the Rs3,400level in FY2011E and crude oil is expected to be around $87.5 levels. This implies thatfor Pax Yield to move above Rs3,750 level the crude oil should be around $100 levels.Thus, if the price of crude oil moves above $100, the company could face a significantdip in load factors, which will lead to lower profitability.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 14: Higher Pax yield leading to lower load factor
Exhibit 15: Sensitivity of PAT to change in ATF and Pax yield (FY2011E)
May 3, 2010 14
SpiceJet | Initiating Coverage
Financial Overview
In FY2009, the company's registered an increase of 30% in revenues, even during theeconomic downturn, due to a higher yield per pax (passenger) of Rs3,356 (Rs2,605 inFY2008). In 9MFY2010, SpiceJet's revenue have increased by 27% to Rs1,616cr (fromRs1273cr in 9MFY2009), aided by strong passenger growth and higher load factors(to the tune of 80%+). The average Pax yield for 3QFY2010 stood at Rs3,256 and isexpected to continue to remain in these levels, going ahead, in 4QFY2010E.
In 4QFY2010E, we expect the company to report a strong revenue on a yoy basis, asthe demand has picked up substantially, with the economy back on track and withSpiceJet reporting 80%+ load factors for the months of January and February, 2010.We expect an increase of about 42% yoy in the 4QFY2010E Top-line to Rs590cr,mainly on the back of a revival in passenger traffic and high load factors. For FY2010E,we expect an increase of 31% in the top-line. In absolute terms, we estimate revenuesto increase from Rs1,689cr in FY2009 to Rs2,206cr in FY2010E. Going ahead, weexpect revenues to increase to Rs2,687cr and Rs3,158cr in FY2011E and FY2012E,respectively. After FY2010E, revenues will be mainly driven by a strong expansion offleets and strong passenger growth.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 16: Robust Growth in Revenues to continue
311
749
1,295
1,689
2,206
2,687
3,158
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E
Operating Revenue
(Rs
cr)
Operating Margins to turn around
SpiceJet's operating margins have always been in the red, and the company reportedan operating loss for FY2009, mainly because of the poor economic conditions, lowerpassenger traffic and higher ATF prices. But, with the economy reviving, the scenariohas changed for SpiceJet, as the passenger traffic is back to its previous levels and ATFprices have stabilised, due to which the company reported a positive OPM in3QFY2010, to the tune of 16%. In absolute terms, the company reported Operatingprofit of Rs109cr, which is the highest amongst all its listed peers. SpiceJet has beenreporting strong load factors for the first 2 months of 4QFY2010; thus, we expect itreport a positive OPM for this quarter as well. The company is expected to report itsfirst positive OPM for the whole year FY2010E, at 6%. In absolute terms, we expect thecompany to report an Operating Profit of around Rs157cr for FY2010E. Going ahead,we expect the OPM to gradually improve to 12% and 12.6% for FY2011E and FY2012E,respectively. In absolute terms, we expect the company to register an operating profit
Revenues expected to increase by 30.6%Revenues expected to increase by 30.6%Revenues expected to increase by 30.6%Revenues expected to increase by 30.6%Revenues expected to increase by 30.6%from Rs1,689cr in FY2009 to Rs2,206crfrom Rs1,689cr in FY2009 to Rs2,206crfrom Rs1,689cr in FY2009 to Rs2,206crfrom Rs1,689cr in FY2009 to Rs2,206crfrom Rs1,689cr in FY2009 to Rs2,206crin FY2010Ein FY2010Ein FY2010Ein FY2010Ein FY2010E
SpiceJet is expected to report its firstSpiceJet is expected to report its firstSpiceJet is expected to report its firstSpiceJet is expected to report its firstSpiceJet is expected to report its firstpositive OPM for the whole yearpositive OPM for the whole yearpositive OPM for the whole yearpositive OPM for the whole yearpositive OPM for the whole yearFY2010EFY2010EFY2010EFY2010EFY2010E, at 6%., at 6%., at 6%., at 6%., at 6%.
May 3, 2010 15
SpiceJet | Initiating Coverage
of Rs319cr and Rs398cr in FY2011E and FY2012E, respectively (compared to anoperating loss of Rs419cr in FY2009), mainly because of robust passenger trafficgrowth, lower capacity additions and better load factors.
Company to register its first ever Net Profit in FY2010E
SpiceJet registered its worst ever loss in FY2009 to the tune of (Rs353cr) mainly becauseof lower load factors and higher ATF prices. But things have turnaround for the companyas it has reported a profit of Rs109cr for the 3QFY2010 which is the highest profitamongst listed peers. This turnaround is set to continue in the 4QFY2010 on back ofhigher load factors which the company has been reporting in the first two months ofthis quarter. For the whole FY2010E, we expect the company to register a NPM around7.5% (-21%) and a Net profit of Rs166cr (-Rs353cr). This profit making trend is set tocontinue going ahead for FY2011E and FY2012E as demand is expected to outpacesupply and thus will result in higher load factors for the company. We expect the NPMto improve to 11.2% and 11.9% in FY2011E and FY2012E respectively. In absoluteterms we expect the Net profit to increase from (353cr) in FY2009 to Rs300.5cr inFY2011E and Rs376.5cr in FY2012E.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 18: SpiceJet will register its first ever net profit in FY2010E
Net Profit (LHS) Margin (RHS)
(33) (77)(134)
(353)
166
300
377
(25)
(20)
(15)
(10)
(5)
0
5
10
15
(400)
(300)
(200)
(100)
-
100
200
300
400
500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E
(%)
(Rs
cr)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 17: Strong Turnaround in operating profits
Net Profit (LHS) Margin (RHS)
(33) (77)(134)
(353)
166
300
377
(25)
(20)
(15)
(10)
(5)
0
5
10
15
(400)
(300)
(200)
(100)
-
100
200
300
400
500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E
(%)
(Rs
cr)
Net profit is expected to increase fromNet profit is expected to increase fromNet profit is expected to increase fromNet profit is expected to increase fromNet profit is expected to increase from(Rs353cr) in FY2009 to Rs300.5cr in(Rs353cr) in FY2009 to Rs300.5cr in(Rs353cr) in FY2009 to Rs300.5cr in(Rs353cr) in FY2009 to Rs300.5cr in(Rs353cr) in FY2009 to Rs300.5cr inFY2011E and Rs376.5cr in FY2012EFY2011E and Rs376.5cr in FY2012EFY2011E and Rs376.5cr in FY2012EFY2011E and Rs376.5cr in FY2012EFY2011E and Rs376.5cr in FY2012E.....
May 3, 2010 16
SpiceJet | Initiating Coverage
Outlook and Valuation
SpiceJet is present in a high growth industry and is one of the fastest growing LCCs,and, given the change in preference from FCCs to LCCs, it is best placed to benefitfrom the economic recovery and the growing passenger traffic demand. Going forward,with hardly a 5% growth expected in capacity in FY2011E, the whole domestic aviationsector is going to experience high load factors. Historically, SpiceJet has been reportingbetter load factors than the industry, and we expect this trend to continue in the future,as well.
With strong expansion plans, robust passenger growth and lower capacity additions,SpiceJet is expected to experience load factors of around 77% for FY2010E, 81% inFY2011E and 80% in FY2012E. SpiceJet will be taking delivery of about9 planes by FY2012E based on its existing orders, taking its total fleet size to 27planes.
The increase in capacity and strong load factors will provide a strong revenue visibilityfor SpiceJet and it is expected to register a CAGR of 20% in revenues overFY2010E-FY2012E. SpiceJet is expected to build a strong cash reserve of Rs1,311crand Net Worth of Rs989.4cr as on FY2012E. With the revival in the economy, strongpassenger growth, high load factors, strengthening balance sheet and strong revenuevisibility, we initiate coverage on the stock with a Buy recommendation and a targetwe initiate coverage on the stock with a Buy recommendation and a targetwe initiate coverage on the stock with a Buy recommendation and a targetwe initiate coverage on the stock with a Buy recommendation and a targetwe initiate coverage on the stock with a Buy recommendation and a targetmultiple of 9x FY2012E EPS of Rs9.3, to arrive at a target price of Rs84, implying amultiple of 9x FY2012E EPS of Rs9.3, to arrive at a target price of Rs84, implying amultiple of 9x FY2012E EPS of Rs9.3, to arrive at a target price of Rs84, implying amultiple of 9x FY2012E EPS of Rs9.3, to arrive at a target price of Rs84, implying amultiple of 9x FY2012E EPS of Rs9.3, to arrive at a target price of Rs84, implying aupside of 33%.upside of 33%.upside of 33%.upside of 33%.upside of 33%.
PPPPPAAAAAT after MI (reported)T after MI (reported)T after MI (reported)T after MI (reported)T after MI (reported) (77.0) (77.0) (77.0) (77.0) (77.0) (133.5) (133.5) (133.5) (133.5) (133.5) (352.6) (352.6) (352.6) (352.6) (352.6) 165.7 165.7 165.7 165.7 165.7 300.5 300.5 300.5 300.5 300.5 376.5 376.5 376.5 376.5 376.5
ADJADJADJADJADJ. P. P. P. P. PAAAAATTTTT (77.0) (77.0) (77.0) (77.0) (77.0) (133.5) (133.5) (133.5) (133.5) (133.5) (352.6) (352.6) (352.6) (352.6) (352.6) 165.7 165.7 165.7 165.7 165.7 300.5 300.5 300.5 300.5 300.5 376.5 376.5 376.5 376.5 376.5
% chg 119.8 73.4 164.1 (147.0) 81.3 25.3
(% of Net Sales) (10.3) (10.3) (20.9) 7.5 11.2 11.9
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investmentdecision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should makesuch investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companiesreferred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits andrisks of such an investment.
Angel Securities Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investmentdecisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document arethose of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.
Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and tradingvolume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals.
The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sourcesbelieved to be true, and is for general guidance only. Angel Securities Limited has not independently verified all the information containedwithin this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contentsor data contained within this document. While Angel Securities Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the informationdiscussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.
This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributedor passed on, directly or indirectly.
Angel Securities Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or otheradvisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past.
Neither Angel Securities Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or inconnection with the use of this information.
Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section).
Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)
Ratings (Returns) :
Disclosure of Interest StatementDisclosure of Interest StatementDisclosure of Interest StatementDisclosure of Interest StatementDisclosure of Interest Statement SpiceJetSpiceJetSpiceJetSpiceJetSpiceJet
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.