“Sphere of R&D and innovation in Russia: analysis of the status and forecast of development” Ms. M. Motova, Head of Sector, Ms. Т. Chinaeva, leading researcher.

“Sphere of R&D and innovation in Russia: analysis of the status and forecast of development”

Ms. M. Motova, Head of Sector, Ms. Т. Chinaeva, leading researcher

Centre for Science Research and Statistics (CSRS), Federal Institution «Research Institute – Federal Research Center for Project Evaluation and Consulting Services»

(SRI FRCEC), Ministry of education and science, Russian Federation

International Conference “Scientific and Technological Innovation: National Experience and International

Cooperation”29-31 May, 2013

ICSTI Headquarters

Main problems determining the condition of R&D human

resources

1. Reduction in R&D personnel

2. Decline of its quality

3. Widespread secondary employment

4. Decreased inflow of higher education graduates

5. Outflow of young personnel

6. Ageing of R&D personnel

7. Decline of the prestige of research activities

8. Break in the succession of generations

1

Stages of reduction in R&D personnel

Period Main characteristics of the stages

1991 – 1998 1. Drastic and implacable reduction in the number of R&D personnel (2-fold)

2. Secondary employment3. Brain drain

1999 – 2001 1. “Reverse wave” 2. Enhancing personnel misbalance, including the ageing of the

R&D contingent, lack of young personnel, and structural violations

3. Reducing number of medium-aged scientists

2002 – – present 1. A new stage of the outflow of personnel from the S&T sector 2. New phenomena: – Emergence of numerous small and fragmentary short-term

subjects with the participation of a great number of scientists ;– Strengthening stratification among researchers ;– New features of the mobility of personnel .3. Brain drain from the young contingent of scientists 4. Some return of scientists from abroad (mostly programmers)

2

Main problems of funding of S&T activities

Lack of a complex scientifically based funding system

Shortage of funds Poor management of cash flows

Consequences:

– Lack of interrelationship between funding and output

– Impossibility to ensure full-value activities of R&D institutions

Consequences:

– Crisis in human resources– Insecurity of operation costs– Low level of remuneration

3

20032003 20042004 20052005 20062006 20072007 20082008 20092009 20102010 20112011 20122012 20132013 20142014 20152015

esti-esti-matemate

forecastforecast

at current pricesat current prices ((billion roublesbillion roubles))

169,9169,9 196,3196,3 230,8230,8 288,8288,8 371,1371,1 431431,,11 485,8485,8 523,4523,4 610,4610,4 720,7720,7 796,7796,7 896,0896,0 1000,21000,2

% of the previous year at comparable prices% of the previous year at comparable prices

110,4110,4 96,196,1 98,898,8 108,3108,3 112,8112,8 98,198,1 100,9100,9 96,596,5 100,7100,7 108,9108,9 105,6105,6 105,4105,4 104,0104,0

% % of GDPof GDP

1,291,29 1,151,15 1,071,07 1,071,07 1,121,12 1,041,04 1,251,25 1,161,16 1,121,12 1,181,18 1,201,20 1,211,21 1,211,21

Domestic R&D expenditure:Dynamics and short-term forecast

4

Gross domestic expenditure on R&D by source of funds: 2011/2010

Gross domestic expenditure on R&D +0,7 %

own funds of R&D institutions +33,5 %

government -4,1 %

non-budget funds -25,0 %

business enterprise sector -0,02 %

higher education sector 2,7 times

private non-profit sector 1,5 times

funds from abroad +21,6 %

5

R&D funds by main source of funding (increase against the previous year at comparable prices)

Budget funds Own funds of organizations

Funds from the business enterprise sector

6

Average salary in R&D(2012 – estimate, 2013-2015 – forecast)

7

Economic parameters of the progress of the R&D sector: 2015 *

Scenarios Domestic expenditure as % to

GDP

Salaries in R&D Employment in R&D

Inertial 1% 1% 1,3-1,5 times above the national average

Reduction against 2007 by 20%

Export-oriented (energy and raw materials)

1,9-2%,including 1% due to private companies

Nearly 90,000 roubles

Number of researchers – 348,2

thousand(2007 – 392,8

thousand)

Innovative 2,5-3%,including 50% of total

expenditure due to private companies

4-fold growth in real terms, and 1,5-2 times above the national average

Growth against 2007 by 6%

* Osnovnye parametry sotsialno-ekonomicheskogo razvitija Rossijskoj Federatsii do 2020–2030 godov/ Ministerstvo ekonomicheskogo razvitija. Moscow, 2008.

8

Forecast for R&D expenditure

2015 as % to 2011I – 1.1II – 3.2III – 4.8IV – 1.3

1. 201. 142. 001. 120

5%

I Inertial scenario

II Export-oriented (energy and materials) scenario

III Innovative scenario

IV Extrapolation forecast

As % of GDP

9

1276,1

R&D personnel and average salary forecast: 2015

Inertial scenario

Export-oriented

(energy and raw

materials) scenario

Innovative scenario

Extrapolation forecast

R&D personnel (thousand)

2015 as % to 2011

665,5

87,4

705,4

92,7

847,3

111,3

716,0

97,4

Average salary (thousand)

2015 to 2011 at comparable prices (-fold)

70,8

1,9

87,7

2,4

134,5

3,7

46,4

1,3

2011

R&D personnel (thousand) – 735,3

Average salary (thousand) – 28,4

10

Growth of domestic R&D expenditure by source of funds (2015 to 2011 at comparable prices)

Inertial scenario

Export-oriented

(energy and raw

materials) scenario

Innovative scenario

Extrapolation forecast

Total 1,1 3,2 4,8 1,3

Budget funds 1,1 1,5 2,3 1,2

Own funds of R&D institutions 1,3 3,8 5,7 1,5

Funds of organisations in the business enterprise sector 1,2 7,6 11,4 1,3

11

Intramural R&D expenditure by source of funds

2015

Budget funds

Own funds of R&D institutions

Funds of organisations in the business enterprise sector

Other sources of funds

Inertial scenario Export-oriented (energy and raw

materials) scenario

Innovative scenario Extrapolation forecast

12

Forecast for appropriations for S&T

Indicators Scenario 2015 compared to 2011 (-fold)

Appropriations for civil S&T

I

II

III

IV

1,6

1,4

2,1

1,1

2012 compared to 2008 (-fold) – 1,4

13

Problem: Deformation of the age-specific structure of R&D personnel and ageing of research teams

Year below 29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60 and over Total

2000 10,6 15,6 26,1 26,9 20,8 100

2002 13,5 13,8 23,9 27,0 21,8 100

2004 15,3 13,0 21,9 27,8 22,0 100

2006 17,0 13,1 19,0 27,8 23,1 100

2008 17,6 14,2 16,7 26,3 25,2 100

2010 19,319,3 16,216,2 14,714,7 24,024,0 25,825,8 100100

Including:

Doctors of science 0,1 1,8 10,3 28,4 59,4 100

Candidates of science 4,8 16,8 16,9 26,1 35,2 100

Researchers by age group (per cent)

Source: calculated by CSRS basing on Russia’s Rosstat data

Despite some increase in the number of researchers aged below 40, speaking of it as a steady trend (especially during the crisis) is still too early.

14

Calculation of specialities’ rating based on an expert survey

The rating was calculated on the basis of:• the proportion of experts who had mentioned the demand for

training of candidates/doctors of science for this speciality in the total number of experts believing that this speciality is related to a surveyed priority area;

• an average mark reflecting the relationship of this speciality with a surveyed priority area.

Specialities' rating by priority area

458 449418

374345

409459 437

367318

0

100

200

300

400

500

Information andtelecommunication

systems

Living systems Environmentalmanagement

Nanosystems industry andmaterials

Power generation andsaving

Candidates of sciences Doctors of sciences

15

Forecast for graduates from postgraduate and doctoral studies with dissertations defended by field of science and technology

Graduates with dissertations defended:

2010

Forecast for graduates with dissertations defended:

2015

Growth rate for graduates with dissertations defended(2015 to 2010), per cent

Postgraduate studies

Total 8831 11426 129,4

Including fields of science and technology:

Law 560 779 139,1

Biology 404 515 127,4

Agriculture 247 312 126,4

Pharmacy 33 42 126,2

Veterinary 81 102 125,8

Engineering 1652 2069 125,2

Physics and mathematics 376 469 124,7

Medicine 1087 1307 120,2

Chemistry 244 276 114,4

Doctoral studies

Total 297 376 127,7

Including fields of science and technology:

Agriculture 7 15 207,3

Medicine 13 23 174,2

Law 10 16 164,3

Engineering 71 91 128,7

Chemistry 12 14 120,3

Physics and mathematics 24 29 119,8

Biology 8 9 112,5

Veterinary - - -

Pharmacy - - -

16

Forecast for enrolment of postgraduate and doctoral studentsby field of science and technology

Number of students in 2010

Forecast for the number of students in 2015

Growth of the number of students(2015 to 2010), per cent

Postgraduate studies

Total 147674 156335 105,9

Including fields of science and technology:

Law 11770 13834 117,5

Pharmacy 382 448 117,3

Engineering 34324 36588 106,6

Medicine 10368 10898 105,1

Veterinary 1103 1156 104,8

Agriculture 3690 3850 104,3

Biology 6861 7083 103,2

Chemistry 3098 3162 102,1

Physics and mathematics 7157 7106 99,3

Doctoral studies

Total 4242 4114 97,0

Including fields of science and technology:

Veterinary 11 17 154,5

Law 111 128 115,3

Agriculture 113 113 100,0

Biology 167 164 98,2

Engineering 1100 1064 96,7

Medicine 232 221 95,3

Physics and mathematics 300 274 91,3

Pharmacy 8 7 87,5

Chemistry 127 112 88,2

17

Thanks for attentionThanks for attention