SPF SANTE PUBLIQUE, SECURITE DE LA CHAINE ALIMENTAIRE ET ENVIRONNEMENT 1 Issues related to climate policies 24 November 2011 Conseil Central de l’Economie / Centrale Raad voor het Bedrijfsleven Peter Wittoeck / Vincent van Steenberghe FPS Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment Climate Change Section
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SPF SANTE PUBLIQUE, SECURITE DE LA CHAINE ALIMENTAIRE ET ENVIRONNEMENT
1 Issues related to climate policies 24 November 2011 Conseil Central de l’Economie / Centrale Raad voor het Bedrijfsleven
Peter Wittoeck / Vincent van Steenberghe FPS Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment Climate Change Section
SPF SANTE PUBLIQUE, SECURITE DE LA CHAINE ALIMENTAIRE ET ENVIRONNEMENT
Outcome of COP.16/CMP.6:
The Cancún Agreements
SPF SANTE PUBLIQUE, SECURITE DE LA CHAINE ALIMENTAIRE ET ENVIRONNEMENT
3 3
Cancún Agreements - highlights
UNFCCC process back on track, after CPH “failure” Copenhagen “Accord” effectively enshrined in UN agreement Mitigation targets:
2 C objective Review 2013-2015, based on IPCC AR5 Anchoring of post CPH “pledges” into formal UN documents
SPF SANTE PUBLIQUE, SECURITE DE LA CHAINE ALIMENTAIRE ET ENVIRONNEMENT
Cancún Agreements – highlights (ctd.)
“new principles” paradigm shift towards building a low-carbon society just transition of the workforce, decent work and quality jobs equitable access to sustainable development in all climate change-related actions fully respect human rights gender equality, effective participation women & indigenous peoples
establishment of processes for way forward: Scope and modalities of the Review Clarification of ‘pledges’ Guidelines and modalities for MRV, ICA, IAR Work programme on Loss & Damage REDD+ finance Consider market and non-market based mechanisms …
SPF SANTE PUBLIQUE, SECURITE DE LA CHAINE ALIMENTAIRE ET ENVIRONNEMENT
Cancún Agreements – highlights (ctd.)
Creation of new tools and institutions: Green Climate Fund Standing Committee for CC Finance NAMA registry Technology Mechanism (TEC & CTC/N) REDD+ Mechanism Adaptation Framework & Adaptation Committee
SPF SANTE PUBLIQUE, SECURITE DE LA CHAINE ALIMENTAIRE ET ENVIRONNEMENT
From Cancún to Durban
SPF SANTE PUBLIQUE, SECURITE DE LA CHAINE ALIMENTAIRE ET ENVIRONNEMENT
Durban: key challenges
1) Operationalising Cancún
2) Addressing ‘remnants’ from Cancún: international transport, carbon market mechanisms, LULUCF, AAU surplus, HFCs, …
3) Address main ‘political’ gaps in the regime: a) Mitigation gap b) Legal form gap c) Finance gap
SPF SANTE PUBLIQUE, SECURITE DE LA CHAINE ALIMENTAIRE ET ENVIRONNEMENT
FSF 30 G$ Path for scaling up climate finance? 100 G$/yr
Kyoto Protocol CP 2 ?
Cancún
Process to ramp up ambition?
Review Mitigation gap
Review ? 2 C
“pledges”
Mitigation gap
SPF SANTE PUBLIQUE, SECURITE DE LA CHAINE ALIMENTAIRE ET ENVIRONNEMENT
2 C trajectory
BAU : 56 Gt Low pledges: 53 Gt High pledges: 49 Gt
2 C : 44 Gt Now : 48 Gt
Source : UNEP gap report
Cancún: “work towards identifying a time frame for global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions […], and to consider it at COP17”
Cancún: “reducing global greenhouse gas emissions so as to hold the increase in global average temperature below 2 C above pre-industrial levels and that Parties should take urgent action to meet this long-term goal, consistent with science and on the basis of equity”
Cancún: “work towards identifying a global goal for substantially reducing global emissions by 2050, and to consider it at COP17”
Gap = 5-9 Gt
SPF SANTE PUBLIQUE, SECURITE DE LA CHAINE ALIMENTAIRE ET ENVIRONNEMENT
UNEP gap report
SPF SANTE PUBLIQUE, SECURITE DE LA CHAINE ALIMENTAIRE ET ENVIRONNEMENT
www.climateactiontracker.org
SPF SANTE PUBLIQUE, SECURITE DE LA CHAINE ALIMENTAIRE ET ENVIRONNEMENT
www.climateactiontracker.org
Cancún: “Agrees that developing country Parties will take nationally appropriate mitigation actions in the context of sustainable development, supported and enabled by technology, financing and capacity-building, aimed at achieving a deviation in emissions relative to business as usual emissions in 2020;”
SPF SANTE PUBLIQUE, SECURITE DE LA CHAINE ALIMENTAIRE ET ENVIRONNEMENT
www.climateactiontracker.org
Cancún: Urges developed country Parties to increase the ambition of their economy-wide emission reduction targets, with a view to reducing their aggregate anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol to a level consistent with that recommended by the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change;
SPF SANTE PUBLIQUE, SECURITE DE LA CHAINE ALIMENTAIRE ET ENVIRONNEMENT
www.climateactiontracker.org
-20 % -30 %
SPF SANTE PUBLIQUE, SECURITE DE LA CHAINE ALIMENTAIRE ET ENVIRONNEMENT
Low Carbon Roadmap Cancún: • […] a low-carbon development strategy is indispensable to
sustainable development.
• addressing climate change requires a paradigm shift towards building a low-carbon society that offers substantial opportunities and ensures continued high growth and sustainable development, […] , while ensuring a just transition of the workforce that creates decent work and quality jobs;
• Decides that developed countries should develop low-carbon development strategies or plans
• Encourages developing countries to develop low-carbon development strategies or plans in the context of sustainable development
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Belgian position on EU LCE Roadmap
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SPF SANTE PUBLIQUE, SECURITE DE LA CHAINE ALIMENTAIRE ET ENVIRONNEMENT
In general
The Roadmap is « very much welcome »
• Requirement to elaborate low emission developement strategies (LEDs)
• Urgent need to provide certainty to private sector and to public decision makers at all levels
• Need to reach long-term targets in cost-effective way (trajectory) by avoiding lock-in effects
• Important input for further development and strenghtening of EU climate policies
• Need to be open to EU domestic emission reductions above 80% in 2050 (scientific findings, e.g. from IPCC)
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On specific policies
Energy efficiency is key • Many advantages: energy security, competitiveness, jobs, health, protection
against volatile energy prices, …
• Large investments are required but costs are to a large extent compensated by lower energy expenses and co-benefits
• Welcomes EC finding that 20% EE leads to 25% GHG reductions in 2020
The price-signal needs to be restored • EU ETS must play its role in driving low carbon investments
needs to be ‘recalibrated’
link with EE goal and policies
• Need to envisage implementation of new targets in non-ETS sectors (with cost-effectiveness between ETS and non-ETS sectors)
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SPF SANTE PUBLIQUE, SECURITE DE LA CHAINE ALIMENTAIRE ET ENVIRONNEMENT
On the integration of policies
Policy initiatives • Energy and climate policies • Directive on taxation of energy products • Next Multi-annual Financial Framework • New product standards Other long term strategies • White paper on transport • Energy roadmap
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On the « short » term (2020) (1/2) 21
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Current policyPower Sector
Residential & Tertiary
Non CO2 Other Sectors
Industry
Transport
Non CO2 Agriculture
25% domestic reductions in 2020
Cost-effective trajectory
SPF SANTE PUBLIQUE, SECURITE DE LA CHAINE ALIMENTAIRE ET ENVIRONNEMENT
On the « short » term (2020) (2/2)
Issue related to « beyond 20% » or « step-up to 30% » GHG emission reductions since possible modalities to step-up to 30% are • 30% domestic reductions • 25% domestic reductions + 5% offsets Currently, no common BE position on this issue
Federal level: resolution of the parliament (kamer/chambre) in March 2011 • In favor of unconditional EU step-up to 30% • Attention to be paid to employment and competitiveness
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Analyses: impacts and policies (1/4)
Macroeconomic impacts in 2020 (FPB analyses)
23
Average annual loss of 0.02%
Average annual loss of 0.05%
SPF SANTE PUBLIQUE, SECURITE DE LA CHAINE ALIMENTAIRE ET ENVIRONNEMENT
24 Analyses: impacts and policies (2/4)
• Energy bill
24
1200
1700
2100
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Baisse des importation énergétiques belges en 2020 (mio d'euros)
Source: BFP (2011)
20%
30% avec flexibilité
30% interne
• Public revenues from autionning of quotas
400
662,5
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Recettes annuelles belges des enchères ETS (moy. sur 2013-20, en mio d'euros)
Source: OKO Institute (2010)
20%
30% avec flexibilité
SPF SANTE PUBLIQUE, SECURITE DE LA CHAINE ALIMENTAIRE ET ENVIRONNEMENT
25 Analyses: impacts and policies (3/4)
• Employment opportunities
25
• Health
7120
25530
0
10000
20000
30000
Impact net sur l'emploi belge en 2020 d'un renforcement de l'objectif européen avec fiscalité carbone et recyclage en baisses
de cotisations sociales (en unités) Source: BFP (2011)
30% avec flexibilité
30% interne
297,5
621,5
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Bénéfices sur la santé en Belgique en 2020 d'un renforcement de l'objectif européen
(mio d'euros) Source: HEAL et al. (2010)
30% avec flexibilité
30% interne
SPF SANTE PUBLIQUE, SECURITE DE LA CHAINE ALIMENTAIRE ET ENVIRONNEMENT
Analyses: impacts and policies (4/4) Carbon leakage risks?
Before crisis • 20% scenario: C price ~ 30 € (2020) • Leakage addressed through free allocation After crisis • 20% scenario: C price ~ 16 € (2020) • 30% scenario: C price ~ 30 € (2020)
How to step-up? • Cost-efficient distribution of efforts at EU level: +14% in ETS sectors and
+6% in non-ETS sectors • ETS: at EU level (cap) / non-ETS: new targets at national level
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SPF SANTE PUBLIQUE, SECURITE DE LA CHAINE ALIMENTAIRE ET ENVIRONNEMENT
Further steps needed
On the short/medium terms: • Further analyses on step-up to 30% (at MS and sectoral levels) • Start analyses on 2030 horizon and beyond (also DK PDCY priority)
On the long term: • Need to elaborate a BE LCE roadmap 2050 • Encouraged by Council of the EU • Focus on « transition » aspects • Involve all stakeholders and civil society • Such initiatives do exist abroad (eg: UK, DK, SE, SI, …) and even within
Belgium (eg: Limburg, Leuven)
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