Special Weather Special Weather Briefing Briefing Isaac Isaac 530 PM - 530 PM - 08/29/2012 08/29/2012 www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing Keith Stellman Keith Stellman Meteorologist Meteorologist National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana
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Special Weather Briefing Isaac 530 PM - 08/29/2012 srh.noaa/shv/briefing
Special Weather Briefing Isaac 530 PM - 08/29/2012 www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing. Keith Stellman Meteorologist. National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana. Isaac Summary. A little better agreement this afternoon Official Isaac Forecast Winnfield -> Ruston -> Prescott, AR - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Special Weather BriefingSpecial Weather BriefingIsaacIsaac
Keith StellmanKeith StellmanMeteorologistMeteorologist
National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana
Isaac Summary A little better agreement this afternoon A little better agreement this afternoon Official Isaac ForecastOfficial Isaac Forecast
Winnfield -> Ruston -> Prescott, ARWinnfield -> Ruston -> Prescott, AR A little Faster in moving outA little Faster in moving out Rainfall threat highestRainfall threat highest
Jena->Monroe->El Dorado->Hope/NashvilleJena->Monroe->El Dorado->Hope/Nashville Model DataModel Data
A couple models still on a more westward trackA couple models still on a more westward track Largest impacts over N LA/S AR, but some wind Largest impacts over N LA/S AR, but some wind
impacts into E TX/SE OK possibleimpacts into E TX/SE OK possible
National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana
Radar ImageryRadar Imagery
Current PositionCurrent Position
H
Ridge to the northwest…causing Ridge to the northwest…causing slower motion. slower motion.
It is forecast to shift east and allow It is forecast to shift east and allow Isaac to sling northwardIsaac to sling northward
Model Forecast of Upper Model Forecast of Upper RidgeRidge
H
Ridge begins bridging east Ridge begins bridging east north of Isaacnorth of Isaac
GFS forecast @ Thu AM GFS forecast @ Thu AM
GFS forecast @ Thu PM GFS forecast @ Thu PM
H
Ridge gets East of Isaac and Ridge gets East of Isaac and begins to sling it northbegins to sling it north
Timing + Precip (Thu -> Timing + Precip (Thu -> Fri)Fri)Midnight – 6 AM 6 AM - Noon
““What if” Isaac is a little What if” Isaac is a little WestWest
Off
icial
Off
icial
track
track““What if”What if”
tracktrack
Potential ImpactsPotential Impacts On forecast TrackOn forecast Track
N LA/S AR N LA/S AR Heavy rainfall/flooding (5-10”) Heavy rainfall/flooding (5-10”) Greatest impact timeframe: Thu/Thu PMGreatest impact timeframe: Thu/Thu PM Winds 40-45 mph with higher gusts Late Wed PM-Thu Winds 40-45 mph with higher gusts Late Wed PM-Thu
PM for N/LA; ~25 mph with higher gusts for S ARPM for N/LA; ~25 mph with higher gusts for S AR Prime tornado threat area east of US 165Prime tornado threat area east of US 165 Power outages possible primarily in LA east of I-49 Power outages possible primarily in LA east of I-49