Special Special SevereWeather SevereWeather & & Heavy Rain Heavy Rain Weather Weather Briefing Briefing 03/19/2012 03/19/2012 www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing Keith Stellman Keith Stellman Warning Coordination Warning Coordination Meteorologist Meteorologist National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana
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Special SevereWeather & Heavy Rain Weather Briefing 03/19/2012 srh.noaa/shv/briefing
Special SevereWeather & Heavy Rain Weather Briefing 03/19/2012 www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing. Keith Stellman Warning Coordination Meteorologist. National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana. Overview. ** Significant Severe Weather and Rainfall Event Setting up across the region ** - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Special Special SevereWeather SevereWeather & & Heavy Rain Heavy Rain Weather Weather
Keith StellmanKeith StellmanWarning Coordination Warning Coordination
MeteorologistMeteorologistNational Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana
Overview****Significant Severe Weather and Rainfall Event Significant Severe Weather and Rainfall Event
Setting up across the regionSetting up across the region****
Setup:Setup: Cutoff – slow moving upper lowCutoff – slow moving upper low Stalled FrontStalled Front High Precipitable Water (99High Precipitable Water (99thth percentile) percentile) Soils prepped from the recent rainsSoils prepped from the recent rains
ImpactsImpacts Serious Flooding/Flash Flooding!!Serious Flooding/Flash Flooding!! Tues AM->Thu AMTues AM->Thu AM Severe Weather Threat Late Monday/Early Severe Weather Threat Late Monday/Early
TuesTues Damaging Winds – Strong!Damaging Winds – Strong! Tornadoes (primarily East TX/SE OK/SW AR)Tornadoes (primarily East TX/SE OK/SW AR)
National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana
Current Satellite/Water Current Satellite/Water VaporVapor
National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana
L
Note the plume of moisture Note the plume of moisture from the Pacificfrom the Pacific
Strong Polar Jet diving Strong Polar Jet diving Down the backside of this lowDown the backside of this low
Strong ridge holding strong Strong ridge holding strong East of the areaEast of the area
H
Radar @ 1045 AM Radar @ 1045 AM MondayMonday
Strong Strong Storms Storms developingdeveloping
Expect this Expect this line to line to shift east shift east slowly with slowly with stronger stronger stormsstorms
Monday PMMonday PM Upper Upper
level low level low beginninbeginning to cut g to cut off.off.
Waves of Waves of storms storms moving moving across across west/NW west/NW areasareas
L
7 PM 10 PM
1 AM 4 AM
MondayPM
Thru
Tuesday AM
Model RadarSimulation
Precip Precip through through Tues 7 Tues 7
AMAM High High
Risk Risk of of excessivexcessive e rainfall rainfall i.e. i.e. Flash Flash FloodingFlooding