SPECIAL SESSION OF AMCEN ON CLIMATE CHANGE, NAIROBI 25 TH – 29 TH MAY 2009 Case Study : Ghanas CC vulnerability assessment Presented by : Rudolph S. Kuuzegh.

SPECIAL SESSION OF AMCEN ON CLIMATE CHANGE, NAIROBI

25TH – 29TH MAY 2009

Case Study : Ghana’s CC vulnerability assessment

Presented by : Rudolph S. Kuuzegh

Director, Min of Environment,

Science & Technology, Ghana

Outline of Presentation

• Ghana: UNFCCC Implementation

• Objective of the Study

• Scope & focus

• Vulnerability defined

• Climatic trends and projections

• Lessons learned

• Challenges encountered

• Recommendations

• Signed the Convention at Rio Conference June, 1992

- Ratified Convention on 5th September 1995- Ratified the Kyoto Protocol 16th November 2002- Deposited the Instrument of Ratification at UNHqrs

in NY, March 2003- By these acts, Ghana bound itself to meeting the

obligations under the Convention and the Protocol.

Ghana’s UNFCCC and KP History

History cont’d

In further fulfillment of obligations under the Convention;

- Prepared and submitted to the COP initial national communication with support from GEF and other bilaterals. e.g. NCAP with Netherlands support.

-Prepared the 2nd communication; to be published soon.

Objective of the Study

- Assist developing Ghana, and may be others, in preparing, formulating, implementing and evaluating policies in relation to CC

- Raise awareness of the problem of CC- Increase the involvement of policy makers,

scientists, ‘broad layers’ of the population in the CC debate

- Impact the UNFCCC negotiating process through raising of “burning issues”

- Establish environment and development interaction for national sustainable development

Scope of the study

- Limited to eight (8) thematic areas

- Data limitations

- Inability to obtain a longer time series e.g. for fish yields to match the climate parameters

- Resource limitations

- GPRS does not focus on CC issues

Focus

- Building capacity

- Dissemination of the outcome of the 1st communication

- Sensitization of policy makers e.g. MP(s), Senior Public Servants of relevant MDA(s) on the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol

Vulnerability

• The sensitivity, resilience and capacity of a system to adopt to stress, perturbation or fragility”

• Chris Park, Lancaster University, UK defines vulnerability as

“ the process of estimating the susceptibility to potential natural hazards, or environmental changes”

Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment

From national vulnerability assessments, it has more apparent that climate change will affect the economy of Ghana because of observed adverse impacts on the following sectors– Human health - increase in diseases incidence and prevalence

such as malaria, CSM, guinea worm, diarrhoea, etc.– Agriculture - reduced yields/quantities

• Cocoa production• Root-crops (cassava, yam and cocoyam) production• Fisheries production

– Land management – decrease in soil fertility, increase in desertification and biodiversity loss

– Water Resources – decrease in available water– Coastal Zone – exacerbated coastal erosion

Climate Scenarios in Ghana

• In addition, following have been carried out:– Climate Scenarios have been developed

using base data 1960 – 2000 and projections up to 2080 for all agro-ecological zones

– Climate change and poverty incidences– Impact of climate change on women’s

livelihood

Historical Climate Data

1.TrendsHistorical climate data observed by the Ghana Meteorological Agency across the country between 1960 and 2000, (a forty-year period), show a progressive and discernible rise in temperature and a concomitant decrease in rainfall in all agro-ecological zones of the country.

2. Temperature

• Future climate change scenarios developed, based on the forty-year observed data, also indicate that temperature will continue to rise on average of about 0.6oC, 2.0oC and 3.9oC by the year 2020, 2050 and 2080 respectively, in all agro-ecological zones in Ghana.

3. Rainfall

• Rainfall is also predicted to decrease on average by 2.8%, 10.9% and 18.6% by 2020, 2050 and 2080 respectively in all agro-ecological zones.

4. Sea level rise

• Scenarios of sea level changes with respect to 1990 mean predict an average rise of 5.8cm, 16.5cm and 34.5cm by 2020, 2050 and 2080 respectively.

• Already at the current sea level, the east coast of Ghana, (Keta area) is experiencing an annual coastal erosion rate of 3 meters.

• Graphical presentation of trends and projections by ecological zones

16

Sudan Savannah ZoneMean annual Dai ly Temperature, 1961 to 2000 in the Sudan

Savanna Region

28.0

28.2

28.4

28.6

28.8

29.0

29.2

29.4

29.6

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

MEAN 5 per. Mov. Avg. (MEAN)

T otal annual R ai nf al l 1961 to 2000 i n the Sudan

Savana.

600.0

700.0

800.0

900.0

1000.0

1100.0

1200.0

1300.0

1400.0

1500.0

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Tota

l(mm

)

T OT AL 5 per . Mov. Avg. (T OT AL)

Mean annual Dai ly Temperature, 1961 to 2000 in the Sudan

Savanna Region

28.0

28.2

28.4

28.6

28.8

29.0

29.2

29.4

29.6

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

MEAN 5 per. Mov. Avg. (MEAN)

17

Guinea Savannah ZoneMean Annual Dai ly Temperature, 1961 to 2000 in the Guinea

Savanna Zone

26.8

27.0

27.2

27.4

27.6

27.8

28.0

28.2

28.4

28.6

28.8

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

YearMEAN 5 per. Mov. Avg. (MEAN)

Total Annual Rainf al l 1961 to 2000 in the Guinea Savanna

Zone

600.0

700.0

800.0

900.0

1000.0

1100.0

1200.0

1300.0

1400.0

1500.0

1600.0

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

RR 5 per. Mov. Avg. (RR)

18

Transitional Zone

Mean Annual Dai ly Temperature, 1961 to 2000 in the

Transi tinal Zone

26.2

26.4

26.6

26.8

27.0

27.2

27.4

27.6

27.8

28.0

28.2

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

MEAN 5 per. Mov. Avg. (MEAN)

MeanTotal annual Rainf al l 1961 to 1990 in the

Transi tional Zone.

900.0

1100.0

1300.0

1500.0

1700.0

1900.0

2100.0

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

RR 5 per. Mov. Avg. (RR)

19

Forest ZoneM ean A nnual Dai l y , 1961 to 2000 i n the For es t Zone.

25.0

25.5

26.0

26.5

27.0

27.5

28.0

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Y ear

ME AN 5 per . Mov. Avg. (ME AN)

Mean Total Annual Rainfall, 1961 to 2000 in the Forest Zone

600.0

800.0

1000.0

1200.0

1400.0

1600.0

1800.0

2000.0

2200.0

2400.0

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

RR 5 per. Mov. Avg. (RR)

20

Rain-Forest Zone 

Mean Annual Daily Temperature, 1961 to 2000 in the Rain-Forest Zone

25.5

26.0

26.5

27.0

27.5

28.0

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

MEAN 5 per. Mov. Avg. (MEAN)

Mean T otal Annual Rainf al l , 1961 to 1990 in the Rain-For est Zone

1000.0

1500.0

2000.0

2500.0

3000.0

3500.0

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Y ear

RR 5 per . Mov. Avg. (RR)

21

Coastal Savannah Zone 

Mean Annual Daily Temperature, 1961 to 2000 in the Coastal Savannna Zone

26.2

26.4

26.6

26.8

27.0

27.2

27.4

27.6

27.8

28.0

28.2

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

MEAN 5 per. Mov. Avg. (MEAN)

Mean Total Annual Rainfall, 1961 to 2000 in the Coastal Savanna Zone.

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

1200.0

1400.0

1600.0

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

RR 5 per. Mov. Avg. (RR)

23

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Mean Annual Rainfall (mm)

SSZ GSZ TZ DFZ RFZ CSZ

Agro-ecological Zones

Scenarios for Annual Mean Rainfall (mm)

Base Year 2020 2050 2080

24

Scenarios for Mean Sea Level Rise

Ecological Zones and Their Mean Poverty Levels

SOURCES: METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES DEPARTMENT Ghana Living Standards Survey 4 2000

Temperature Rainfall Mean Poverty Level

Ecoclimatic Zone

MIN MAX MEAN MEAN Coastal Savanna 23.8 30.4 27.1 750 34.8 Rainforest 23.6 29.3 26.45 2250 45 Semi Decidious 21.8 30.8 26.3 1605 60.89 Transitional 22.2 31.9 27.05 1350 84.36 Guinea Savanna 21.8 34.8 27.1 1175 93.1 Sudan Savanna 22.6 34.8 28.7 870 90.6

Eight (8) Thematic Areas

Agric (cereals), coastal areas, water resources were assessed in an earlier phase.

2nd phase was conducted on the ff eight thematic areas;• CC Scenarios development• CC impact on fisheries• CC impact on human health• CC impact on land management• CC impact and poverty linkages• CC impact on root crop production• CC impact and women’s livelihoods• CC impact and Cocoa production

Key Lessons

• Ghana’s economy is highly dependent on climate sensitive sectors which have to be watched closely

• Strong relationship between climate and poverty levels

• Inadequate relevant data and information for facilitating the appreciation of climate change

• Policy makers and businesses need to consider climate change as a priority for poverty reduction programmes

Challenges encountered

• CC not prioritized in the GPRS. CC is just another development challenge among many others such as HIV/AIDS etc

• Adaptation strategies more on sector basis (cross cutting issues and inter linkages not inadequately addressed)

• Time series for study restrictive e.g. in the fisheries sector

• Resources adequate but not sufficient

Recommendations

• Deeply involve policy makers, businesses and other major stakeholders esp. women

• Encourage Climate Change Research and Education

• Develop insurance schemes• Strengthen institutions & organizations • Build & disseminate early warning systems• Strengthen Regional Collaboration

Thank you