SPECIAL ADVISORY€¦ · 1 SPECIAL ADVISORY . 2 Table of Contents Ramadan at a Glance ... On the eve of Ramadan in July 2011, a series of knife and bomb attacks took place in Kashgar,

1

SPECIAL ADVISORY

2

Table of Contents

Ramadan at a Glance.......................................................................................... P3

Security Risks by Region

Africa

East Africa......................................................................................... P4

West Africa........................................................................................ P4

Asia-Pacific

Afghanistan/Pakistan ...................................................................... P5

China/Thailand ................................................................................. P6

Middle East and North Africa

Egypt/Iran......................................................................................... P7

Israel/West Bank/Saudi Arabia....................................................... P8

Tunisia/United Arab Emirates.......................................................... P9

General advice................................................................................................... P10

Regional advice.................................................................................................. P11

Regional advice.................................................................................................. P12

2

3

The Islamic holy month of Ramadan will commence on 16th

May 2018, and will culminate with the celebration of Eid al-Fitr on 14th June.

Ramadan falls in the ninth month of the Islamic calendar. Due to differences between the Muslim calendar and the Gregorian calendar, the date for Ramadan changes yearly. Ramadan is the period when Muslims abstain from food and drink between sunrise and sunset. Ramadan is seen as a time of reflection and during this period Muslims are encouraged to participate in charity, fasting and prayer. It is a significant event and constitutes one of the Five Pillars of Islam (almsgiving, faith, fasting, pilgrimage and worship).

During the holy month, Muslims will rise early to eat a pre-dawn meal called suhoor. In the evening, the fast is broken with a meal known as iftar. Nightly prayers, called Tarawih, are also held in mosques after iftar. Iftar may take the form of large public buffets or free meals at mosques and community centres. Although traditions and practices during Ramadan may differ by region and across cultures, the core principles remain the same.

Logistical Considerations Opening hours of businesses and government offices will be impacted, with some organisations opening for shorter hours. Business operations, especially those in Muslim-majority countries, will experience disruption, such as a reduction in working hours and delayed decision-making. Areas in the vicinity of mosques will likely be crowded during prayer time and iftar. As such, there remains a potential for traffic disruption near large mosques in urban centres. Large crowds are expected at various iftar gatherings and during Eid al-Fitr when Muslims celebrate the end of Ramadan.

Etiquette

Try to avoid planning work lunches, and schedule any meetings so that it will not clash with prayer times.

Refrain from playing loud music in public places or behaving in a way that may be considered disrespectful.

Although in some countries non-Muslims are legally not required to fast, it is advisable to refrain from consuming food and drink, or smoking in public places.

Local laws and customs relating to the business etiquette and behaviour may differ by region and country.

Ramadan at a glance

3

4

Security risks by region - East Africa

Al-Shabaab, a Somalia-based terrorist group linked to al-Qaeda, remains the most pertinent threat actor in East Africa. In previous years, al-Shabaab has carried out an increased number of attacks in Kenya and Somalia during Ramadan. The group has recently recorded its deadliest year (2018) thus far owing to several mass casualty attacks in Somalia. In the past, the group has threatened to attack "non-believers" in Kenya during this period, and al-Shabaab is expected to continue what has become an annual offensive during the Islamic holy month. Al-Shabaab has conducted attacks in Kenya since 2011 after the Kenyan Defence Forces began operations in Somalia against the terrorist group. In April 2015, al-Shabaab attacked Garissa University College, killing 152 people.

In 2017, the Kenyan police identified several areas as being vulnerable to attacks by al-Shabaab. These included Arabia, Fino and Elwak in Mandera county, the IIkambere and Kolbio areas in Garissa county and Boni Forest in the coast region. At the time of publication, the police have issued no such statement for 2018, most likely due to the improved security environment. Outside Kenya and Somalia, al-Shabaab has demonstrated a limited capability to conduct attacks in East Africa. It should be noted that the Islamic State (IS) militant group established itself as a threat actor in Somalia in 2017. Five people were killed at a checkpoint in the north-eastern port city of Bosaso on 24th May 2017. Since then, the group has gone on to conduct more daring attacks as the security forces reel from increased al-Shabaab operations.

Security risks by region - West Africa

The frequency of attacks conducted by Boko Haram in Nigeria during Ramadan has dropped significantly between 2015 and 2017, due to increased security operations in north-east Nigeria. In February 2018, the Nigerian government announced that it had defeated the group. While this remains far from the truth, recent claims highlight a containment of Boko Haram in Nigeria. It remains likely that the militant group will attempt attacks during the religious festival; however, these will likely be limited to rural areas around Borno and Yobe States and border areas in Niger, Chad and Cameroon. Like al-Shabaab in East Africa, there has been no expressed declaration of an intent to increase attacks.

A Shia Muslim group, the Islamic Movement of Nigeria, is expected to conduct more protests during this period, calling for the release of its leader Ibrahim el-Zakzaky. There are concerns that the Shia group could use the religious period as an opportunity to stage further protests in northern Nigeria and the capital, Abuja. Although the group espouses non-violence, members of the group have been involved in bouts of civil disobedience with the actions of the security forces in many cases resulting in violence. There are up to three million practising Shia Muslims in Nigeria.

Against a backdrop of poverty plus social and political disenfranchisement, the Sahel has become a notable area of operations for Islamist extremist groups. In recent years Burkina Faso (and the wider Sahel) has experienced an escalation in jihadist violence in part linked to militant activities in Mali but also due to the emergence of homegrown groups. In recent years, multiple terrorist attacks have occurred in the capitals of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, as well as attacks on security personnel in the border regions of these countries. Despite the presence of foreign security personnel and security initiatives such as the G5-Sahel, the complex groupings of criminal networks and militants will likely pose a threat during the holiday period.

4

5

Security risks by region - APAC

Afghanistan An uptick in militant attacks is expected as Ramadan coincides with the Taliban’s annual

spring offensive which was declared on 25th

April.

The spring offensive seeks to destabilise the Afghan government by staging mass-casualty attacks. In 2017, at least 18 people were killed on the first day of Ramadan alone. The 2018 spring offensive will pose a challenge to the Afghan security forces as control of districts is at its lowest since 2015. The spate of US air strikes against the militants has provoked the Taliban, who are expected to retaliate strongly by staging more high-profile attacks. Hopes of a diplomatic resolution diminished when the Taliban rejected President Ashraf Ghani’s call to register themselves for the upcoming parliamentary election. The group asserted that the government had no legal right and legitimacy as it remained under foreign occupation. Attacks targeting large urban centres will likely take the form of bombings. Taliban attacks focusing on Afghan forces strongholds scattered throughout rural areas are expected to take the form of a ground assault mounted by Taliban militants.

Pakistan The risk of a high-profile attack targeting urban centres increases around Ramadan.

Islamist militant groups often capitalise on the festive period of Ramadan to perpetrate attacks. In 2017, several militant attacks in Quetta, Karachi and Parachinar resulted in 73 people killed and more than 100 other wounded. The attacks were claimed by several militant groups affiliated to IS, as well as by Pakistani Taliban militant groups like Jamaat-ur-Ahra. Historical precedence indicates that the attacks are likely to be driven by sectarian hostility, given that most of the attacks during Ramadan were conducted by Sunni militant groups. As a consequence, flashpoints for unrest are localised to Shia-dominated areas, and locations close to government buildings or places with high pedestrian traffic.

5

6

Security risks by region - APAC

China The risk of unrest increases during Ramadan as a result of the antagonistic relationship between the ethnic Uighurs and the Chinese authorities.

Southern Xinjiang is home to the majority of China’s Uighur population, an ethnic minority that primarily practices Islam. There have been several high-profile periods of unrest in the region. On the eve of Ramadan in July 2011, a series of knife and bomb attacks took place in Kashgar, Xinjiang resulting in a total of 37 people killed and 57 others wounded. The unrest prompted the authorities to deploy more security personnel. The securitisation of Xinjiang was also accompanied by laws which curtailed religious freedom. In March 2017, the Chinese authorities banned the burqa and Islamic baby names. In 2016, the government banned civil servants from fasting during Ramadan.

The operational capacity of Islamist militant groups in Xinjiang remains limited.

IS has published several propaganda pieces calling on disenfranchised Uighurs to rally against oppression by the Chinese government. Despite the aggressive posturing, IS currently does not have much traction among the Uighur population and lacks any notable physical presence in the country, limiting its effectiveness to conduct terrorist attacks in China. Likewise, although the al-Qaeda-linked Turkestan Islamic Party has established a two-decade-long prominence among the Uighur militant groups, its operations and resources remain focused and limited to the Middle East.

Thailand Militant activity in Thailand’s southern provinces usually increases during Ramadan.

Various Islamist groups operate in the Muslim majority provinces of Yala, Narathiwat, Pattani and Songkhla, and militant activity typically increases during Ramadan. The profile of attacks during Ramadan does not deviate much from previous occurrences, composed of bombings and ambushes that are typically targeted at the security forces or areas with high pedestrian traffic. In January 2018, twelve people were wounded and three others were killed when a bomb detonated at a marketplace in Yala.

The profile of attacks has been showing signs of an increase in sophistication over the past few months.

Although militant attacks over the past few months have regularly featured small improvised explosive devices (IEDs), which have caused limited fatalities, reports of coordinated attacks and the use of stronger IEDs suggests that militant targeting patterns might be changing. In January, a motorcycle IED killed three people and wounded more than 20 others when it detonated in Yala. In April, three bombs exploded simultaneously in several areas in Sungai Golok, Narathiwat, wounding at least four people.

6

7

Security risks by region - MENA

Egypt The risk of militant attacks is increased in urban centres during Ramadan, especially around religious sites. We consider Egypt to be a MODERATE security risk country, owing to numerous attacks on urban centres such as Cairo, Alexandria and Luxor in recent years. The source of attacks is likely to come from IS affiliates operating in the North Sinai, where the security risks are EXTREME. Wilayat Sinai, the IS affiliate in the North Sinai has demonstrated its operational capabilities by carrying out attacks on urban centres during Ramadan in the past years. In May 2017, the group claimed responsibility for an attack on a bus carrying Coptic Christians that killed 29 people near the city of Minya, 152 miles (145km) south of Cairo.

The security forces in Egypt are capable and heightened security measures should be anticipated for the duration of Ramadan. Islamist extremist groups that are operating in the North Sinai have expressed intent to carry out further attacks outside of the region; however, many of these are thwarted by the Egyptian security forces. Travellers without a religious reason to attend should minimise time spent in the vicinity of potential targets such as Coptic Christian sites.

Iran The risk of an attack against urban centres is increased throughout Ramadan. On 27

th

July 2017, gunmen entered the parliament building, held a number of individuals hostage and detonated at least one suicide IED. Simultaneously, the Ayatollah Khomeini mausoleum, approximately 15 miles (25 kilometres) south of Tehran, was stormed by militants. At least 17 people were killed and up to 40 people wounded. This attack, claimed by IS, was unprecedented in that it was the first attack on Tehran since 2010. The short-lived nature and rarity of attacks highlight the capabilities of the security forces in Iran. During Ramadan in 2016, the security forces claimed they thwarted a large-scale attack that targeted Tehran and other major cities. Although attacks on urban centres remain unlikely, the 2017 attacks mean that a heightened security presence should be anticipated throughout the country. There is also a possibility of an uptick in protest activity owing to widespread anti-government demonstrations in January 2018. Should protests break out, these will be forcibly dispersed by the security forces, with credible incidental risks and risk of arrest posed to bystanders. There are also annual anti-Western protests known as Al-Quds day which are held on the last Friday of Ramadan. Heightened security measures will be in place.

7

8

`

Security risks by region - MENA

Israel/West Bank Palestinian militant factions maintain an expressed intent to launch attacks at all times irrespective of Ramadan. While Ramadan places upward pressure on our security risk ratings throughout the region, effective measures implemented by the Israeli security forces heavily restrict the capability of militant factions, meaning the risk environment remains stable throughout Israel and the West Bank. Violent unrest is also reported year-round, though the security forces disperse any such gatherings at the first sign of trouble.

Due to the capability of the security forces, attacks are generally restricted to unsophisticated stabbings and vehicle-rammings. These attacks typically target security personnel stationed at checkpoints, border crossings, settlement entranceways and major highways in the West Bank. Shootings involving homemade firearms have also been reported on an infrequent basis, although recent security operations have reduced the availability of such weapons. Attacks will be largely focused against the security forces and pose incidental risks to bystanders. During Ramadan in 2017, two Palestinians fired at Israeli police officers in the Old City of Jerusalem, wounding four. An additional nearby stabbing attack took place, and resulted in one police officer being killed.

Saudi Arabia There is a heightened risk of militant activity during Ramadan, with Islamist militant groups such as IS maintaining a determined intent to carry out attacks. A heightened security posture will partially mitigate risks, though the anticipated volume of plots means attacks remain likely. The threat posed by IS militancy places upward pressure on our MODERATE security risk rating throughout the Ramadan period.

Unsophisticated attacks, such as vehicle-rammings and stabbings pose the greatest risks as they are extremely difficult to prevent. Heightened security measures have reduced the risk of high-impact bombing and firearms attacks which require significant planning and coordination, leaving plotters vulnerable to detection. While these attacks cannot be ruled out, their relative complexity mean unsophisticated attacks have become an increasingly central facet of IS strategy.

The Saudi forces are capable of preventing attacks, underscored by the prevention of a major terrorist attack on the Grand Mosque in Mecca in June 2017. The assailant exchanged fire with the security forces, before detonating a suicide device in a residential area near Mecca. However, the threat from militancy is not completely eradicated. In July 2016, three separate attacks were carried out simultaneously; one at the Prophet’s Mosque in Medina, killing four and wounding five others, another at a Shia Muslim mosque in Qatif District killing only the attackers, and the final one at the US consulate in Jeddah that wounded two security officers. There is a further threat posed by the Houthi militants in Yemen, who have expressed intent to target religious sites in the Saudi interior. The threat is nevertheless mitigated by the reliability of Saudi Patriot missile defence systems.

8

9

Security risks by region - MENA

Tunisia Previous trends indicate that public agitation and unrest are likely. The Mouch Bessif group (meaning ‘not against our will’) organised demonstrations in Tunis in 2017 and other large urban centres to protest for the right not to fast, which culminated in several people being detained. The demonstrations were in response to the arrest of a man in Bizerte who was apprehended for smoking in public during fasting hours, something that is not illegal in Tunisia. Protests often result in the police using tear gas and forceful methods of dispersal. Although foreign nationals are unlikely to be targeted, travellers should avoid any large gatherings due to the risk of incidental violence. Relocate to a secure location should protests arise. Flashpoint locations include Al-Waslatiyah, Bouhajla, El-Guettar, El-Kef, Firyanah, Kasserine, Melloulèche, Sabita, Sidi Bouzid, Tala, Tebourba. The security forces carry out regular raids and operations to counter terror cells loyal to al-Qaeda militants and IS which somewhat negates the threat posed by Islamist militants. Nonetheless, militant groups maintain determined intent to carry out attacks on high profile locations during Ramadan. These include hotels, shopping centres, tourist sites and restaurants.

United Arab Emirates Ramadan increases the latent risk of militant activity, though our security risk rating remains MINIMAL. Our security risk rating is a result of the stable security environment, which despite the existence of numerous attractive targets, lacks any credible threat actors. The primary risk posed to travellers takes the form of organised and petty crime, though rates of both generally decrease in more affluent Gulf countries during Ramadan.

Nonetheless, Islamist militants do pose a threat to all Gulf countries. Islamist extremist groups including, but not limited, to IS and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) continue to publicly threaten Westerners in the Arabian Peninsula, and attacks targeting Westerners have occurred in neighbouring countries. Heightened security measures should be anticipated, particularly in areas surrounding mosques during evening prayers and central tourist areas, though this is not a cause for concern.

9

10

General security advice

As a standard security precaution, travellers should minimise time spent in unsecured,

crowded areas in the immediate vicinity of government infrastructure and religious sites.

Plan itineraries to account for the reduction in business hours during Ramadan,

arrange business meetings in the morning where possible.

Refrain from photographing worshippers during prayers.

Locals in observant communities may be more tired and irritable than usual, and as such,

travellers should be patient in interactions.

Dress modestly and respect local cultures; foreign travellers are usually afforded some

leeway in regard to conservative dress but there are been reports of attacks on foreigners in

recent years due to perceived disrespect.

Adopting common sense precautions will largely mitigate any risks posed by opportunistic

crime. Travellers should avoid carrying valuables on their person and leave them

locked in a hotel safe; better still, avoid bringing them altogether. When carrying essential,

high-value goods, travellers should avoid overt displays of wealth and take care not to

attract unwanted attention, particularly in more remote areas located away from central

thoroughfares.

Where possible, travellers should seek to book transport through trusted local providers

(hotels will often provide details). It is strongly advised that travel is avoided in the hours

preceding and immediately following iftar when traffic is most intense and the frequency of

traffic collisions is highest. Ensure adequate supplies of non-perishable food and water are

kept in accommodation in order to avoid unnecessary travel during peak times (around

sundown).

Contact the Healix GSOC at [email protected] for further country-specific

information or pre-trip travel advice.

10

11

Region Advice

Africa Cultural

• In Muslim-majority West African countries, believers abstain from eating

or drinking during daylight hours, and are also expected to refrain from

other un-Islamic behaviour including smoking.

Female Travellers

• Females should wear loose-fitting clothes and have their shoulders and

legs covered in coastal areas of Tanzania, as well as Chad, Mauritania,

Mali, Niger, Kenya and rural areas of Sudan. In more conservative areas

such as Somalia, north-eastern Nigeria, north-eastern Mali and Darfur,

female travellers should wear a headscarf.

Disruption

• Islamic communities are found mostly in coastal areas of East Africa, so

any travel disruption should be limited to these areas. Most hotelis (small

restaurants) close during daylight hours, and fasting is widespread. There

is little pressure for non-Muslims to participate. Public transport and

official business aren't generally affected in Mombasa and Malindi, but

expect disruptions further up the coast.

APAC Cultural

• Be aware that traditions and cultural practices may differ not only between

regions, but also within countries. For instance, restrictions during

Ramadan are expected to be more strict in Aceh than in other provinces

in Indonesia.

• Be mindful that when invited for iftar, travellers are advised to use their

right hand to eat as the left hand is typically used for bodily hygiene.

Security Considerations

• Travel to countries like Afghanistan or Pakistan where there is a HIGH

and above security risk rating would require travelers to adhere to security

precautions which includes taking professional profile and travel-risk

assessments.

Female Travellers

• In conservative countries, like Pakistan and Afghanistan, women should

wear loose fitting clothes and a headscarf. Female travellers should

remain vigilant and cover their legs and shoulders in less conservative

Muslim majority areas.

Regional advice

12

Region Advice

MENA Security and Cultural Considerations

• Laws are much more stringent in Saudi Arabia and Iran than other

countries in the region. Liaise with local contacts in order to understand

specific local laws and customs.

• We strongly recommend minimising non-essential travel in the immediate

vicinity of security infrastructure and Shia Muslim religious sites in Iran

and Saudi Arabia, as these are priority targets for the IS militant group.

Where travel to these sites is essential or unavoidable, care should be

taken to minimise time spent in crowded entranceways and unsecured

areas.

• Avoid all Coptic Christian sites in Egypt where there is no reason to

attend, as these have been common targets for attacks in the past.

Minimise time spent on the outskirts of churches if attending, and identify

easily accessible exit routes.

• Travellers should liaise with trusted local fixers when travelling to the

West Bank and ensure that itinerary-specific planning identifies likely

flashpoint areas. Where possible, routes should be planned to avoid

these areas and time spent in their vicinity minimised.

Female Travellers

• Women should cover their knees and shoulders in order to avoid

attracting attention; security personnel may enact stricter rules during the

month of Ramadan. This does not apply for urban centres in Israel,

although discretion should be maintained in Muslim majority areas, such

as Jaffa in Tel Aviv. This also applies for urban centres in Morocco,

Tunisia and Turkey.

For further information, contact [email protected]

www.healix.com

Regional advice