SPE 153275-PP A Method for Probabilistic Forecasting of Oil Rates in Naturally Fractured Reservoirs Julio César Muñoz Blanco y Rafael Paz Palenzuela, CBM Ingeniería, Exploración y Producción; Roberto Aguilera, SPE- Schulich School of Engineering / University of Calgary
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SPE 153275-PP A Method for Probabilistic Forecasting of Oil Rates in Naturally Fractured Reservoirs Julio César Muñoz Blanco y Rafael Paz Palenzuela, CBM.
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SPE 153275-PPA Method for Probabilistic Forecasting of Oil
Rates in Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
Julio César Muñoz Blanco y Rafael Paz Palenzuela, CBM Ingeniería, Exploración y Producción; Roberto Aguilera, SPE- Schulich School of
Engineering / University of Calgary
SPE 153275-PP A Method for Probabilistic Forecasting of Oil Rates in Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
SPE 153275-PP A Method for Probabilistic Forecasting of Oil Rates in Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
Presenter: Julio Muñoz Blanco
Conclusions
1. An easy to use modified Darcy equation has been presented for statistical determination of oil rates in naturally fractured reservoirs. The equation incorporates variables such as matrix and fracture permeabilities and the partitioning coefficient. The use of mathematical algorithms or dependence of variables involved in the equation allows the estimation of more reliable initial oil rates. 2. A methodology that integrates the statistical and critical oil rates with a view to reduce premature gas and water coning has been developed. 3. The complex heterogeneous reservoir considered in this study results in different pressures and different gas-oil and water-oil levels, which vary significantly depending on the exploitation stage. This can be handled quickly, easily and with a good level of accuracy for different areas of the reservoir using the proposed methodology. The methodology, however, is not meant to replace more detailed reservoir simulation and probabilistic studies. 4. The proposed methodology can be used for other reservoirs depending on the exploitation stage. This might require handling of different technical uncertainties.
SPE 153275-PP A Method for Probabilistic Forecasting of Oil Rates in Naturally Fractured Reservoirs