Spatial population dynamics of brown bears in Scandinavia and Finland Jonna Katajisto Metapopulation Research Group [email protected].

Spatial population dynamics of brown bears in Scandinavia and

Finland

Jonna Katajisto

Metapopulation Research Group

[email protected]

Why?

– MSc thesis for Scandinavian Brown Bear Project

– To more methodological direction

– Fragmentation and poaching main threats of bear populations

– ”Bears threat to human populations”

Aims and means

– Main processes and mechanisms determining population dynamics?

– How affected by spatial and temporal patterns of landscape?

Spatially explicit population models

Specific issues

– Viability of bear populations under current and future management plans

– Effects of landscape structure on dispersal and population expansion

– Effects of harvesting

– Human conflicts

Outline

– Linking landscape patterns to population dynamics

– Brown bear data

– Modelling challenges

Landscape

- succession- human land use

LandscapeDynamics

Individual

Demographic processes

Spatial processes- movement

- habitat choice- interactions

Population densityDistribution

– Scandinavian Brown Bear Research Project since 1984

– To date ~300 bears

– At the moment ~100

– Most followed their lifetime

– Finnish Game and Fisheries Research Institute

My bears

Habitat quality and human influence

– CORINE land use data Maps for habitat quality and

human activity Habitat specific demography

Hunter-kills Harvesting with demographic

variability

– Intensive/daily/ weekly/ monthly locations

Detailed individual movement

– Dispersal from mother’s home range until establishment

Large scale approach

Dispersal

Spatially explicit individual-based population model

Modelling challenges

– Data quality:

– Almost infinite possibilities for modelling detailed behaviour

– Complex models difficult to test

1. Biological processes

2. Parameter values

3. Stochasticity

Excellent data

Answers to some questions Improving spatial modelling

Novel modelling