Development of a Spatial Planning Concept for Nairobi Metropolitan Region STUDY STATUS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Republic of Kenya Ministry of Nairobi Metropolitan Development February 2011 Consulting Engineering Services (India) Pvt. Ltd. 57, Nehru Place, 5th Floor, New Delhi -110 019, India In association with Runji & Partners, Consulting Engineers and Planners Ltd. 3, Kindaruma Road, P.O Box 68053, Nairobi, Kenya
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Spatial Plan Concept - Nairobi Metropolitan Development - Timothy Mahea
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Development of a Spatial Planning Concept for Nairobi Metropolitan Region
STUDY STATUS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Republic of Kenya
Ministry of Nairobi Metropolitan Development
February 2011
Consulting Engineering Services (India) Pvt. Ltd. 57, Nehru Place, 5th Floor, New Delhi -110 019, India
In association with
Runji & Partners, Consulting Engineers and Planners Ltd.
3, Kindaruma Road, P.O Box 68053, Nairobi, Kenya
Project: Preparation of Spatial Plan for Nairobi Metropolitan Region of Kenya Page 1
Document: 2010063/UPD February, 2011
Executive Summary R0
Ministry of Nairobi Metropolitan Development, Government of Kenya
Development of a Spatial Planning Conept
for
Nairobi Metropolitan Region
Study Status Executive Summary
1. The study has been initiated by the Ministry of Nairobi Metropolitan Development
(MoNMD), GoK and is being carried out by M/S Consulting Engineering Services (India)
Private Limited, New Delhi, in association with M/S Runji & Partners, Consulting
Engineers, Nairobi
2. The study was started w.e.f 20 September 2010
3. As of date the following reports have been submitted
i. Inception Report (in October, 2010)
ii. Status Report I (Base Map) (in December 2010)
iii. Status Report- II (Sectoral Characteristics, Transport Surveys, Stakeholders
Meetings) (in December 2010)
iv. Working Paper on NMR-2030: Population Forecast & Distribution, Employment,
Occupation Structure and Urban Land Use Structure (in February 2011)
4. The Inception Report
presents a brief overview of some of the major policies of GoK that impact planning
and development of Nairobi Metropolitan Region (NMR)
lists the objectives of the study, the overall objective being to develop a sustainable
land use system for NMR
details the study methodology in 21 modules and
presents the activity schedule and deliverables
5. The Status Report I
The Status Report I describes the methodology of preparation of the Base Map of NMR
on GIS platform
The Survey of Kenya toposheets had been taken as a primary source of Base Map
development which had been geo-referenced, vectorised and mapped for important
layers in groups like Administrative Boundaries, Settlements/Built-up, Natural green
Areas, Transport Network, Water Bodies, and indicative contours at 100m interval. The
most important layer in terms of planning for development of a Metropolitan Region
being the existing condition of built-up and settlements of the area, the same has been
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MAP.1: BASE MAP FOR NMR
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updated from the latest satellite image using the GEO-Eye data of 2010. Further
developments of the road corridors like the bypasses which have come up in recent few
months or under construction have been updated by traversing using the GPS. A
universal projection system, the UTM with WGS-84 datum has been assigned for the
geo-referenced toposheets and Satellite Images so as to derive the layers and maps
which could be used for further studies and directly the GPS and other surveyed data
can be overlaid.
Accuracy and integrity of base map is the most important criteria for any good spatial
study. SDP-NMR being the one with a large areal extent of about 32,000 sq km, the
accuracy of base map becomes further more important. The features and their
accuracies in the source maps and satellite images has been cross checked in the field
using one of the most reliable hand held GPS, the Garmin GPS 76CSx having SWIR
antenna giving a accuracy in the range of + 4m. The maps have been checked by GPS
traversing and Ground Control Points with respect to the land features likes roads and
major structures. It has been found that most of the land features were in the most
desirable accuracy range of +10-15m for a study like SDP-NMR. The requirement for
the development of concept plan for SDP-NMR is a broad scaled map in the range of
1:500,000 to 1:100,000 scales. However the accuracy achieved in this Base Map is
better than that required for 1: 50,000 scale. Hence the layers derived for the base map
in GIS format could be put to use for any further spatial study at a level of 1: 50,000
scale.
Though the Base Map is developed in GIS format which is scale independent, i.e., could
be printed and viewed at any scale, the hard copies have been printed for the SDP-NMR
Status – I Report at the following scales - Base Map for Nairobi Metropolitan Region
(1:400,000), County Nairobi (1:100,000), County Kajiado (1:450,000), County Machakos
(1:300,000) and County Kiambu (1: 200,000).
The methodology of preparation of Base Map and the potentials of its use and
application was presented by the GIS experts of the Study Team, to the members of the
Progress Review Committee and officers of the MoNMD.
6. The Status Report II
The Status Report II (SR-II) is a detailed report presenting the status and salient features
of the NMR in all its dimensions – physical, demographic, economic, social, transport,
physical, land use, infrastructure, environment, landscape, urban design and institutional
framework.
The SR – II:
presents a detailed overview of the major policies of the GoK that impact the spatial
development of NMR
presents an analysis of the demographic characteristics of NMR
discusses the economic profile
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presents the landuse structure of the major urban centres in the region
presents a detailed analysis of the traffic and travel characteristics of the people and
the features of the transport system
details the social profile of the people
discusses the environmental status
briefly reviews the physical infrastructure system services and
presents an overview of a large number of legal statues that govern physical
development
A SWOT analysis of the NMR has also been presented highlighting the opportunities,
potentials and constraints.
The report lists the extensive data/reports/maps/ etc that have been collected from
secondary sources.
The report stresses on the need for a National Urbanisation Policy.
As part of the study extensive meetings with a large number of stakeholders of different
descriptions have been carried out to elicit the stakeholders perceptions of and
suggestions for the spatial development plan.
The SR-II has enabled a clear understanding of the ongoing development process, the
critical issues that need to be addressed, and the opportunities that need to be exploited.
In the context of the revised political administrative system of counties and with four (4)
counties in the NMR, an effective institutional framework for integrated and coordinated
development of the NMR emerges as a critical need.
7. Working Paper
A Working Paper on Population forecast and Distribution, Employment, Occupation
Structure and Urban Land use structure has been submitted (February 2011). The policy
assumptions and the forecasts form the base for detailing the Spatial Development Plan.
The population of NMR is growing
rapidly. The forecast of population
by 2030, under three (3)
scenarios of Business As usual,
Vision Based and unabated
Development – has been made.
The range is 13.2 million to 20.1
million.
FIG.1: POPULATION PROJECTION BY THREE METHODS FOR NMR
IN 2020 AND 2030
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The forecast, of 15.1 million, under Vision
Based scenario has been selected for further
detailing.
FIG.2: POPULATION FOR NMR IN 2009 AND 2030
Presently there is an inequitable distribution of
people by the component sub-regions (4
counties). Nairobi city accounts for almost half of
the region population (2009) and Northern Metro
Region (Kiambu County) for half of the balance
population. Some of the urban centres are
experiencing runaway growth rates. There is a
need for a more balanced growth and
distribution.
FIG. 3: PROJECTED DISTRIBUTION WITHIN
NMR AND ONMR
It is proposed to contain the population size of Nairobi City to be 5.21 million (2030). It is
proposed to decelerate the growth rate of urban centres in Northern Metro Region and
accelerate the growth rate of
urban centres in Eastern Metro
Region. Even with this policy
distribution, Northern Metro will
account for a large share of the
population (4.99 million). However
the other two (2) sub-regions will
have large size of 2.97 million in
Eastern and 1.96 million in
Southern Metro Regions.
FIG. 4: PROJECTED POPULATION CHANGE IN NAIROBI
In the revised urbanisation pattern, apart from Nairobi city, there will be 3 more near
metropolitan cities (Ruiru, Kikuyu and Kangundo-Tala).
Six (6) New Towns, 2 in each of the three sub-regions (other than Nairobi), of about
100,000 population each, have been proposed.
The overall forecast of population in NMR, by component spatial units is presented in
Table 1.
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Table 1: NMR – 2030: Population Forecast
Sr. No. Spatial Units 2009 2030
1 NMR 6,658,000 15,135,881
2 Core Nairobi 3,138,369 5,212,500
3 Total Urban within NMR 4,887,664 12,999,992
4 ONMR 3,519,631 9,923,381
a Total Urban within NMR (without Nairobi) 1,749,295 7,787,492
b Rural 1,770,336 2,135,889
5a Northern Metro 1,786,879 4,990,641
Urban 976,295 4,180,712
Rural 810,584 809,929
5b Eastern Metro 1,045,440 2,969,576
Urban 507,978 2,376,526
Rural 537,462 593,050
5c Southern Metro 687,312 1,963,164
Urban 265,022 1,230,255
Rural 422,290 732,910
5a Northern Metro
i. Ruiru 238,858 973,911
ii. Thika 139,853 570,232
iii. Limuru 104,282 425,196
iv. Kiambu 88,869 362,351
v. Juja 40,446 164,913
vi. Kikuyu 234,053 954,320
vii. Karuri 129,934 529,788
Sum (i-vii) 976,295 3,980,712
2 New Towns (with 100,000 in each) 200,000
Total Urban 976,295 4,180,712
5b Eastern Metro
i. Machakos 150,041 642,879
ii. Mavoko 139,380 597,199
iii. Kangundo/Tala 218,557 936,448
Sum (i-iii) 507,978 2,176,526
2 New Towns (with 100,000 in each) 200,000
Total Urban 507,978 2,376,526
5c Southern Metro
i. Ngong 107,188 412,641
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Sr. No. Spatial Units 2009 2030
ii. Kitengela 58,167 223,925
iii. Ongata Rongai 40,178 154,673
iv. Kiserian 18,096 69,664
v. Namanga 9,066 34,901
vi. Isinya 8,670 33,377
vii. Bissil 5,376 20,696
viii. Kajiado 18,281 70,376
Sum (k-r) 265,022 1,020,255
2 New Towns (with 100,000 in each) 200,000
Magadi 10,000
Total Urban 265,022 1,230,255
Source: Projection by the Consultant
With the expectation of growth of Kenya’s GDP at 10% as envisaged in Kenya Vision
2030, NMR GDP would need to grow at about 15%. The per capita income would more
than double. The economy is expected to become more formal. While agriculture will be
the main occupation in the rural areas, manufacturing, transportation, construction and
service sectors would be the major sectors contributing to the urban, and in general to
the overall, economy of the region.
The large increase in employment size presents an opportunity to promote balanced
spatial and inclusive development of NMR. However it calls for comprehensive,
coordinated and continuous planning and development process.
NMR is a highly urbanised region and will continue to be more urbanised in the decades
to come. The urban share will be about 87%. The 18 urban centres (excluding Nairobi
city) will grow at high rates and will increase their population size manifold. Care needs
to be exercised in consuming land for urban use. Optimal densities, based on city size,
have been recommended. About 173 sq. km of land would be under urban developed
land which is about 5.4% of NMR area.
The occupational structure of each of the urban centres have been proposed based on
their functional character.
The land use structure of each of the urban centre has been proposed, again with
reference to their envisaged function.
It is important that each of the urban local authority is encouraged and facilitated to
prepare comprehensive Master Plans, Zoning plans and Local Area Plans for their town
to promote and guide integrated and balanced spatial, economic, social and
infrastructure development to attain the status of world class region.
8. The Executive Summary of each of the above reports are enclosed for more detailed
reference.
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Occupational Structure and Land Use Distribution, 2030 1. Nairobi
2. Ruiru
3. Thika
4. Limuru
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5. Kiambu
6. Juja
7. Kikuyu
8. Karuri
Occupational Structure in 2030
Agril.
23%
Manf.
14%Trans p.
7%C ons t.
5%
S erv.
51%
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9. Machakos
10. Movoko
11. Kangundo/Tala
12. Ngong
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13. Kitengela
14. Ongata Rongai
15. Kiserian
16. Namanga
Occupational Structure in 2030
Agril.
10%
Manf.
10%
Trans p.
6%
C ons t.
6%
S erv.
68%
Occupational Structure in 2030
Agril.
11%
Manf.
3%
Trans p.
7%
C ons t.
6%
S erv.
73%
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17. Isinya
18. Bissil
19. Kajiado
20. Aerotropolis (near Thika)
Occupational Structure in 2030
Agril.
12%Manf.
4%
Trans p.
6%
C ons t.
6%
S erv.
72%
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21. Ruaka New Town
22. New Town (near Aeroptroplis)
23. New Town (Along Eastern by-pass)
Land Use Distribution, 2030
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24. Ambosilli New Town
25. Kajiado Transport Hub
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Inception Report
Project: Preparation of Spatial Plan for Nairobi Metropolitan Region of Kenya Page i