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Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 2
NASA’s Space Exploration Initiative• Presidential Announcement
– Jan 14, 2004 – New Vision for Space Exploration (post CAIB report)– Retirement of Space Shuttle by 2010– Complete ISS and sustain until at least 2016
• New Human Spaceflight System• Constellation Program• CEV (Orion) 2014 to ISS – prime contract: Lockheed Martin (8/2006)• CLV (Ares I) OFT1 in 2012 – design work underway• Later: Lunar Missions (first sorties before 2020, then lunar outpost)• Mars Missions (post 2020)
• How can this be achieved in a sustainable manner?
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 3
Simple Network Graphs
Apollo
11 12 14 15 16 17
KSC
ISS
RSA KSC
ISS VSE
LOPS1 S3
LLO
RSA ESA JAX KSC
MARS
ISS LEO
S2 S4
LAND
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 4
0.1% launched mass = 100% value
• Mass fractions (approx. )– Propellant 93%– Vehicle Dry Mass 6.9%– Everything Else 0.1%
• Crew, Consumables, Spares, Exploration Items, Other
• Direct exploration value is generated by 0.1% of launched mass– fixed crew & cargo capacity per launch,
vehicles are given (more or less)– What to launch? How often? – How do we tradeoff between consumables
(endurance), spares (robustness) and exploration items (value)?
– Need to focus on operations & supply items
CLV – Ares IESAS LV 13.1807 metric tons24.5mT to LEO
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 7
Terr
estr
ial
Aer
ospa
cePast
ISCM&LAProject
Past Lessons• Apollo• Shuttle• ISS
Current Exploration• HMP
Terrestrial Analogies• Military• Commercial
Current Technology• RFID
Space Logistics Analysis
• Measures of Effectiveness
• SpaceNet• Scenario
Analysis
Outreach• Space Logistics
Workshop• Publications• Academic
Coursework
Present Future
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 8
Supply Class Development• ISS uses Cargo Category Allocation Rates Table (CCART)
– 14 major categories– works, but inconsistent use of attributes for classification, varying levels of detail– incomplete for surface exploration (e.g. surface equipment)
• Military uses a functional class of supply system1. CREW PROVISIONS1.1 Joint Crew Provisionsclothinghygienecare packages1.2 Crew Provisions/FoodUS food containersRussian food containersutensils2. CREW DAILY OPERATIONS2.1 Joint Crew Dialy Operationsoffice supplies2.2 US Crew Daily Operationscomputersvaccum cleanersfilm cassettebatteries
+
CCART Military ISCM COSShull S., Gralla E., de Weck O., Siddiqi A., Shishko R., “The Future of Asset Management for Human Space Exploration”, AIAA-2006-7232, Space 2006, San Jose, California, Sept. 19-21, 2006
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 9
Commercial Supply Chain DesignSupply Chain Network Design: place warehouses, consider potential w/h and manufacturing plants optimally, given customer distribution
Can we create a similar planning environment for space logistics ?
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 10
Terr
estr
ial
Aer
ospa
cePast
ISCM&LAProject
Past Lessons• Apollo• Shuttle• ISS
Current Exploration• HMP
Terrestrial Analogies• Military• Commercial
Current Technology• RFID
Space Logistics Analysis
• Measures of Effectiveness
• SpaceNet• Scenario
Analysis
Outreach• Space Logistics
Workshop• Publications• Academic
Coursework
Present Future
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 11
HMP 2005HMP 2005
•• HaughtonHaughton--Mars ProjectMars Project–– NASA/CSA field research station, high ArcticNASA/CSA field research station, high Arctic–– Study the Haughton impact craterStudy the Haughton impact crater–– Terrestrial analog of Mars terrain and scienceTerrestrial analog of Mars terrain and science
•• Operational analog for Martian baseOperational analog for Martian base–– Remote siteRemote site–– Similar exploration goalsSimilar exploration goals–– Complex logistics networkComplex logistics network
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 12
HMP Expedition 2005: Overview
• Research included geology, astrobiology, space suits, planetary drill, tele-medicine
• 56 researchers on-site, 683 crew days total• All supplies brought in via Twin Otter flights• Detailed Inventory ~ 2300 items (20,717 kg)
de Weck O.L., Simchi-Levi D. et al., “Haughton-Mars Project Expedition 2005”, Final Report, NASA/TP-2006-214196, January 2006
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 13
HMP: Transportation Analysis
1.O3. R
5. H
6. F
6. F
6. F
Normal Trans.
0. Dep. Point for Each Team1. Ottawa2. Edmonton3. Resolute4. Moffet USMC St.5. HMP Base6. HMP Field7. Cambridge Bay
IqaluitYellowknife
4. M
2. E
0.D 0.D
0. D
7. C
7. Y
7. I
Emergency Trans.
Cumulative Cargo Flow HMP 2005
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 19 21 23 25 27
Flight Number (according to log)
Car
go/C
rew
Mas
s [lb
s]
cum in
cum out
cum at HMP
Cargo Mass Flow
Transportation Network Analysis for HMP• Mass inflow per season ~ 20-25 mt• Analysis highlights room for improvement:
– Plan for reverse logistics– Reduce asymmetric flight usage– Smooth personnel profile
• “Robustness” more important than optimality– due to weather, emergencies, aircraft availability
Number of People Staying in Devon
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34
Days from 8 July
# of
Peo
ple
30-Jun10-Jul21-Jul31-Jul7-AugBOXCAR
Personnel Profile
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 14
Terr
estr
ial
Aer
ospa
cePast
ISCM&LAProject
Past Lessons• Apollo• Shuttle• ISS
Current Exploration• HMP
Terrestrial Analogies• Military• Commercial
Current Technology• RFID
Space Logistics Analysis
• Measures of Effectiveness
• SpaceNet• Scenario
Analysis
Outreach• Space Logistics
Workshop• Publications• Academic
Coursework
Present Future
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 15
HMP: Agent & Asset Tracking (RFID)Goal: “Smart Base” for Micro-Logistics
– Technology demonstrations– Observation/Insight for further implementation
Selected Conclusions– RFID has potential for remote bases
• dramatically improve asset management• reduce crew time spent in inventory• increase ground knowledge of base requirements
– NASA Phase I STTR to further investigate• Smart Container Development, 16.622 project
Camp Activity 07/17 to 07/19
020406080
100120140160
9:0011:0
013:0
015:0
017:0
019:0
021
:0023:0
01:003:00 5:007:00
Time of DayN
umbe
r of T
rigge
rs
Asset & Agent FlowMean Time
020406080
100120140160180200
Exp 20-4 Exp 10-4 Exp 10-2
Seco
nds
Bar Code
RFIDFormal Experiments ATV Tracking
Silver, M., Li X., de Weck O., Shull S., Gralla E., “Autonomous Logistics Technologies for Space Exploration: Experiment Results and Design Considerations”, AIAA-2006-5683, 9th International Conference on Space Operations, SpaceOps 2006, Rome, Italy, 19 - 23 June, 2006
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 16
Terr
estr
ial
Aer
ospa
cePast
ISCM&LAProject
Past Lessons• Apollo• Shuttle• ISS
Current Exploration• HMP
Terrestrial Analogies• Military• Commercial
Current Technology• RFID
Space Logistics Analysis
• SpaceNet• Measures of
Effectiveness• Scenario
Analysis
Outreach• Space Logistics
Workshop• Publications• Academic
Coursework
Present Future
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 17
Interplanetary Supply Chain
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 18
What is SpaceNet?
• Modeling space exploration from a logistics perspective• Discrete event simulation
– at the individual mission level (sortie, pre-deploy, re-supply,…)– at the campaign (=set of missions) level
• Evaluation of manually generated exploration scenarios with respect to measures of effectiveness and feasibility
• Visualization of the flow of elements and supply items through the interplanetary supply chain
• Optimization of scenarios according to selected MOEs• Provide software tool for users (= logisticians, mission architects)
to support trade studies and architecture analyses.
A computational environment for
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 19
Building Blocks of SpaceNet• Nodes
– Surface, Orbital, Lagrangian• Supplies
– Classes of Supply– e.g. Crew, Consumables, etc.
• Elements– Propulsive, Non-Propulsive
• Network (Time-Expanded)– Time Discretization, Orbit Dynamics
Dot product of crew surface days and exploration mass (exploration items + surface infrastructure) over all surface nodes for entire scenario
• Relative Exploration Capability [0, ∞)– exploration productivity relative to Apollo 17
∏ ⎟⎟⎠
⎞⎜⎜⎝
⎛=
kaCOSk
bCOSk
atot
btot
b k
mm
ECECREC β
17
17/ ( )bk
akk ωωβ += 17
21
Apollo 17 Normalization
, , 6, , 8, ,1 1
(1 ) [ ]T S
tot ij crew i j COS i j COS i ji j
EC T N m mα= =
= Δ − +∑ ∑
Divisia Index
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 23
Scenarios• With this framework, we have modeled…
– Single ‘sortie’ missions• Constellation sortie• Apollo 17• LEO refueling in Constellation• ISRU on lunar surface
– Entire campaigns• Constellation lunar base build-up• ISS assembly and re-supply
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 24
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
10000000
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000
ConstellationLunar
Outpost
ConstellationSortie 1
Apollo 17
Apollo 11
ConstellationCampaign(4 Sorties)
ApolloCampaign
(6 Landings)
Total Launch Mass TLM [MT]
Exp
lora
tion
Cap
abili
ty E
C [m
an-d
ay-k
g]
Single Sortie
Missions
Campaignof Sortie Missions
OutpostCampaign
REC=1
REC=0.2
REC=10
REC=200
Space Logistics Trade Space Results
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 25
Payload-to-Surface vs. Propellant Architecture
• Plot shows total cargo delivered to the Moon (LSAM-AS+LSAM-DS)• Each “Architecture Number” represents a different propellant combination• Combinations with less than 676 kg of total cargo delivered are infeasible
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
Architecture Number
Tota
l Car
go D
eliv
ered
to th
e M
oon
infeasible
[kg]
feasible
xselected asan “interesting”combination
All architectures inthis group use pump-fedLH2/LOX in the LSAM-DS
LSAM-AScargo isfixed: 676 kg
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 26
Baseline Lunar Cargo Manifest• Use SpaceNet v1.2 to generate demand for cargo• Propellant baseline: LH2/MMH/MMH, 4 crew, 7 surface days, 95% LSAM availability• Total Lunar Surface Cargo: 2,752 kg (1,003 kg non-exploration mass)
Masses shown in [kg]676 kg in LSAM-AS2076 kg in LSAM-DS
Crew Consumables per Crew Member per day: 8.325 kg
Crew Operations assumes on EVA per day (for a team of 2): 16.4 kg
Spares Mass computed with LMI Model for LSAM only, assuming 95%, availability, 17 days, no redundancy, full duty cycle: 340 kg
Non-Exploration Mass Exploration Mass Exploration CapabilityCrew Size: 4
Nominal7 days
Optimal21 days
LunarDay
stay longer, bring lessexploration mass
2752
Apollo (crew size 2)
Constellation Baseline (crew size 4)
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 28
SpaceNet – Network View
1
1 S-IC X X
1002
2 S-II X X
1003
3 S-IVB X X
1004
4 SLA X
05
5 CM X 3
3 06
6 SM X
1007
7 LM DS X
1008
8 LM AS X
100
Date: 07-Dec-1972
Day 3
Transportation from Node 1001 to Node 1501
Element(s): 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Disposal
1001
1017
2009
1501
2507
Node Name Position1001 NASA KSC 29N 81W1017 Pacific Ocean 18S 166W2009 Apollo 17 Landin 20N 31E1501 LEO Parking Orbi P 296 A 296 I 292507 LLO inclined P 112 A 112 I 20
EL# EL Name TRA ACT DIS CRW
MOECrew Surface Days (CSD)
0 [man-day]Expl. Mass Delivered (EMD)
0 [kg]Exploration Capability (EC)
0 [man-d-kg]
Rel. Expl. Capability (REC)0.00 [n.d.]
Total Launch Mass (TLM)2928 [MT]
Rel. Scenario Cost (RSC)1.18 [n.d.]
Tot. Scenario Risk (TSR)0.004 [n.d.]
Up-Mass Capa. Util. (UCU)0.931 [n.d.]
1. Earth and Earth Orbit
2. Moon and Lunar Orbit
3. Node/Arc
5. Process 6. Date
7. Node Information 8. Element Information
4. Element
9. Disposal
3. Node/Arc
3. Node/Arc3. Node/Arc
10. MOE
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 29
Terr
estr
ial
Aer
ospa
cePast
ISCM&LAProject
Past Lessons• Apollo• Shuttle• ISS
Current Exploration• HMP
Terrestrial Analogies• Military• Commercial
Current Technology• RFID
Space Logistics Analysis
• Measures of Effectiveness
• SpaceNet• Scenario
Analysis
Outreach/Impact• Space Logistics
Workshop• Publications• Academic
Coursework
Present Future
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 30
Outreach/Impact – Closing Thoughts• To meet the research objectives we:
– Studied analogies from Earth and Space– Develop a modeling environment and
software tool (SpaceNet)– Fostered the space logistics community
• We assembled a world-class team from academia, industry and government with $2.9M funding for phase I and II (22 months)
• Academic Impact– developed generic SL modeling framework– applied time-expanded networks– first time sparing demand w/commonality– journal publications: JSR, Interfaces– conferences: SpaceOps, Space 2006, IAC 2006
• Real World Impact– SpaceNet selected as logistics/operations model for NASA’s IM&S suite (NExIOM compatible)
• Validated with representative NASA missions and campaigns (Apollo, ISS, ESAS)• Transitioning to a widely applicable product for use by NASA (SpaceNet 2 JAVA)
– Supported trade studies for Constellation Program (IDAC2), NASA Technical Reports (3)– Integrated real-world experience from an analog exploration site (Haughton Mars)– Energized a very dedicated and capable group of students and researchers (~25) – a new
generation of space logisticians
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 31
Additional Information
• Interplanetary Space Logistics– http://spacelogistics.mit.edu
• Strategic Engineering– http://strategic.mit.edu
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 32
Questions?
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 33
Backup Charts
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 34
Previous Space Exploration Paradigms
• Apollo Program– 6 Lunar Surface Missions
(1969-1972)– Each Mission self-
contained (no space logistics network)
– Carry-along all supplies• “backpack model”• based on forecast
– Optimized for short-term lunar stays ~ 3 days
• Space Shuttle & ISS– Shuttle Operations 1981-– ISS is a single facility at LEO
node (since 2000)– Logistics based on regular re-
supply• Shuttle• Progress, Soyuz• Planned: ATV, HTV• based on actual demand
– Actual up and down mass capacity is different than planned
“Carry-Along” “Scheduled Resupply”
What is the next space logistics paradigm?
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 35
One Picture = 1000 Words
Picture from http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/gallery/index.html
Where’s that LiOH canister?
US and Russian Segments "No Go" for EVAsNASA Space Station On-Orbit Status 15 March 2006"Both the Russian segment (RS) and the US segment (USOS) are currently "No Go" for EVA (extravehicular activity): the RS side is still missing four Orlan LiOH(lithium hydroxide) CO2 absorption canisters; …. [For the LiOH cans, additional crew time will be allocated for the search. ….]“
http://www.nasawatch.com
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 36
HMP: Inventory
Comparison by Supply Class(Full Data Set)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1. Propellants and Fuels
2. Crew Provisions
3. Crew Operations
4. Maintenance and Upkeep
5. Stowage and Restraint
6. Exploration and Research
7. Waste and Waste Disposal
8. Habitation and Infrastructure
9. Transportation and Carriers
10. Miscellaneous
Thousands
Total [kg]
Lunar Long Lunar Short .HMP Est HMP Actuals
• Inventoried 2300 items (20,717 kg)
• Developed inventory procedures
• Validated supply classes• Maintained inventory over
time (for use next season)
4153
2934
470
286
17617235471022
9305
102
1. Propellants and Fuels 2. Crew Provisions 3. Crew Operations4. Maintenance and Upkeep 5. Stowage and Restraint 6. Exploration and Research
7. Waste and Waste Disposal 8. Habitation and Infrastructure 9. Transportation and Carrie
10. Miscellaneous
Total Mass Inventoried 20,717 [kg]Goals: Understand, Categorize Supplies on Base- Classification of inventory- Quantify inventory (total imported mass)- Compare with prediction for a lunar base- What would it take to ‘create’ an HMP-like base?
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 37
Mars (15S 175E): Gusev Crater, Spirit landing site
Earth (75N 90W): Devon Island, Haughton Crater
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 38
This is!
PolicyExploration Value Delivery System
Scientific-Economic-Security
Exploration System
Flight Systems
Ground Systems
Implementing and
Building Training andSkill Development
Maintainingand
Supplying
Exploration Enterprise
Hardware Software
Humans
Hardware Software
Humans
Exploration Value Delivery SystemScientific - Economic- Security
Exploration System
Flight Systems
Ground Systems
Designing and
Building Training andOperating
Maintainingand
Supplying
Exploration Enterprise
Hardware Software
Humans
Hardware Software
HumansCEV
Money
DeliveredValue
Risk
Sustainable Space Exploration
Crew ExplorationVehicle
This is not the sustainable system…
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 39
What applies to Space Exploration Logistics?
Modular, easily maintainable vehicles
Modular, easily upgradeable products
Elements
During in-space transit,While exploring on surface
Change in lunar payload-to-the-surfacefor a 1 kg increase in
dry
payload
mm∂
∂
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 50
Academic Impact• Developed abstracted framework for modeling space
exploration missions from a logistics perspective– Object-Process View of Exploration– Time-Expanded Network Formulation– Measures of Effectiveness– Impact of Commonality on Sparing Strategies
• Infusion of Earth-Analogue Research– HMP 2006
• Publications– Conferences– Journals– Edited Volume – AIAA Progress Series
• Course Materials– International Space University
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 51
Real World Impact• Condensed lessons-learned from past spaceflight
missions• Demonstrated leadership in developing space logistics
community– January 2006 Space Logistics Workshop I (54 participants)
• SpaceNet – software prototype, deployment at NASA