Project “Steer Clear” 102 Total Interviews Challenge: How can we stop space collisions from making space unusable? Team Space Evaders Our plan: New method to evaluate debris creation. Sponsor: Amber Charlesworth, Office of Space and Advanced Technology
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Project “Steer Clear”
102 Total Interviews
Challenge:
How can we stop space collisions from making space unusable?
Team Space Evaders
Our plan:
New method to evaluate debris creation.
Sponsor: Amber Charlesworth, Office of Space and Advanced Technology
Kate BoudreauJunior, Biomedical
Background: Bioinformatic
research
Expertise: Biocomputation
Tyler DammannJunior, Computer
Background: Software, computer
science
Expertise: Technology, data
Dave GablerMasters, Business/
Public [email protected]
Background: Air Force, business
Expertise:Strategy, aerospace,
management
Matthew KasemanFreshman, Aerospace
Background: Army, gov’t contracting
Expertise: Engineering
implementation
Team Space Evaders
Increasing # of satellites
Space debris threatens critical infrastructure (GPS, communications, etc)
The Challenge
Increasing collisions
More debris
Interviewed over 100 stakeholders
Mapped the status quo
Built simple prototypes to test our ideas
Lean methodology
First industry process map
Focused on data flow in the collision avoidance system
The Path to CollisionsTracking Modeling Warnings Response
“This will be an eye-opener to many people!”
- Amber, State Department
Original Hypotheses - Tracking1) Collision warnings based
on estimates only
GPS position
Observed position
We can improve avoidance capability through:- Communication - Data Sharing
2) Satellites know precisely where they are
Solution!
We tested many ideas
Worldwide Operator phone book
GPS data-sharing
Define debris size/shape(helps prediction accuracy)
Small satelliteID hardware
Answer #1:This is a small part of the problem
Answer #2:Satellite operator decision matrix
Warning?
Maneuver?
< 1% chanceY
N
N Y
< .01% chance < .01% chance
< 1% chancebut now YOU
caused it
< 1% chance
“My chances are no better if I move, so why would I assume the responsibility?”
- Commercial Satellite operator
Data sharing isn’t the problem - technical uncertainty makes the whole process unreliable
The underlying problem?
Collision warnings are only “in the ballpark”
Operators need MUCH more detail
“This insight will frame our approach to this problem and has given us a new way forward
with the international community”
- Deputy Assistant Secretary
The Path to CollisionsTracking Modeling Warnings Response
Mission Planning
Too much decentralized, limited accountability decision-making
Space as a Tragedy of the Commons
Cost/schedule limitations can prevent debris mitigation efforts
Vague debris mitigation standards = significant design leeway
Fix the Commons Problem
Make choices and consequences transparent and accountable
Debris Responsibility Score
Final MVP: Debris Responsibility Score
Time in Space Size of Object Congestion of Orbit
Risk of On-Orbit BreakupPlanned Mission Debris
“If you can show me it works, I would use it.”
-U.S. Government Regulator
“This needs to be presented at the next
satellite operators conference”
-International satellite operator
“I’ve wanted to do this myself for
years!”
-Leading industry expert/journalist
Iteration/peer review
Best Practice
Community Standard
Deployment: Iteration & Acceptance
Deployment: Expected Use Cases
NGO monitors tradable credits
international policy
Summary
Instead of avoiding as many debris items asoperators choose to put in space...
...Our rating will work to prevent new debris fromgetting there at all
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