Space Evaders Hacking for Diplomacy week 6

Space Evaders

Project Steer Clear

Increased use of space is leading to much higher probability of collisions and a rapidly expanding volume of debris. This propagation of collisions has the potential to become a Kessler cascade that would render Low Earth Orbit

unusable in the future. Our team is using data methods to find ways to prevent debris-causing collisions.

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SponsorAmber Charlesworth

MentorPablo Quintanilla

MentorBart Burstein

Kate Boudreau Dave Gabler Tyler Dammann Matthew Kaseman

10in total

this week

Interviews

Interviewee Hypothesis Experiment Results

State Department sponsor

A data-sharing platform with satellite pre and post launch data would be helpful.

Showed sponsor the MVP with the information and asked how she would use it.

- This would be extremely helpful to our sponsor’s day to day life

State Department sponsor

Gov. agencies are willing to help maintain such a database.

Inquire about who should own this database.

- Willing to contribute, want access to other stuff

FAA Would want to share data with other agencies and have visibility into the progress of others

MVP 2.0 - Gov report Most data didn’t care about.

FCC license could help on-orbit enforcement leverage.

Interviewee Hypothesis Experiment Results

Commercial satellite operator 1

Satellite operators would be able to do their job more effectively given the contact information and governmental info of other operators

New MVP - online platform including the contact and governmental info of other operators

- Rarely needs this (couple times/year)

- Useful, but can get elsewhere

Commercial satellite operator 2

Satellite operators would be able to do their job more effectively given the contact information and governmental info of other operators

New MVP - online platform including the contact and governmental info of other operators

- Some attributes are very useful, including contact information- Some are less useful, such as the location data

University one-off satellite operator

They are less connected to key information and have less robust plans about CA response

New MVP and ask for description of CA response plan

- Disconnected from other operators, but don’t have much need either.- CA avoidance plan is to launch low/decay fast

Collision data process

Prediction models

Data In Data Out Operator

Decision

Mediocre accuracy

Limited predictive capability

Compoundingmediocre collision probability

Fuel and political incentive to not move

Politics of maneuver choices after collisionR

ecei

ve a

war

ning

?

Maneuver?

Why didn’t you do something?

Y

N

N Y

It’s a dangerous place & we got

unlucky

It’s a dangerous place & we got

unlucky

So you’re saying that WE caused

this?You’re fired.

Bottom lineGovernment agencies:- Information gaps, nothing really “painful”- No clear relevance to collision avoidance

Commercial Operators:- Give due diligence to collision avoidance- Won’t improve without actually reliable data/predictions

Insurance:- Operating in pricing bubble- Collisions = extremely minor part of on-orbit losses- Expect changes after next big collision.

Major Players / Saboteurs

Government Data Sharing Platform

Operator Data Sharing Platform

Key Players

Give Data:- JSpOC- FAA- FCC- NOAA RSO- NASA Launch Services Receive Data:- State Department- JSpOC

- Commercial satellite operators

- Government satellite operators

Saboteurs - Unknown - Private SSA providers

Problem:Major pain point found

Only one person beneficiary

Problem:Many potential beneficiaries

No major pain point found (relatively effective workarounds).

ty;

Mission Model CanvasBeneficiaries

Mission AchievementMission Budget/Costs

Buy-In/Support

Deployment

Value PropositionKey Activities

Key Resources

Key Partners

█JSpOC (DM)

█Ken Hodgkins at OES/SAT

█Current regulatory bodies (SE & KK at FAA/FCC/NOAA)

█NASA ISS Mission Director

- tracking inter-agency data transfers

- Find ways to determine contact info for operators

- Existing databases

- Our neutrality in interagency politics

████ Improved sharing of data (both directions).

██ Low cost methods to prevent losses to very expensive, hard to replace items in space

██ Increase ability to predict collisions with accuracy

██ Better ability to predict orbital risk

██ Increased access to other operators, saving time and allowing processes to be automated

█Commercial willing to supply data and follow best practices.█Government resources capable of improving general SSA and conjunction analysis█Access to academic data to improve SSA

- Aggregate existing databases- Test improvements in workflow of beneficiaries- Efficiently distribute to relevant stakeholders

►AC: (quarterly quality control; receive/send UN data)►MJ: (needs more sharing & access to advance science)►DM: conjunction analyst (uncorrelated tracks)►JC: Industrial satellite operators (having to sift through useless CAs while finding the legitimate ones)

- Access to databases (subscriptions)- Potential travel costs- Cost of maintaining a web platform

- Develop a more efficient method for distribution/information-sharing of collision-preventing information- Provide contact information and interagency cooperation amongst satellite operators and regulatory industries.

MVP (last week)

MVP (next week)Hypothesis: Improved contact knowledge and communication ability among satellite operators would lead to an easier decision-making process and a lower probability to current and future collisions.

Value Proposition Canvas

Products&

Services

Customer Jobs

John,satellite operator for a

commercial space-based company.

Gains

Pains

Gain Creators

Pain Relievers

►Many Conjunction Alerts.

►Coordination with other operators

█ Minimize risk, fuel cost, and time investment related to conjunction risks.

█ Improved understanding of Conjunction Alerts.█ Reduce time to make contact with other operators.

- Easy to access information about other operators

►Complete profitable satellite operations.

- Accomplish mission

- Avoid collisions

Customer Archetype (Satellite Operator)● 44-year-old space industry veteran with 15+

years in the industry● Hired to monitor/adjust satellite position to

ensure customer needs can be met.● Very passionate about his job● Enjoys problem-solving, dislikes wasted time● Wants to be a good citizen of space

Mission Achievement:● Reduced time spent on conjunction analysis● Reduced stress surrounding potential

collisions

Value Proposition Canvas

Products&

Services

Customer Jobs

DK,conjunction analyst at

JSpOC

Gains

Pains

Gain Creators

Pain Relievers

►Single-source data

►Ad hoc ephemeris data usage█ Fewer uncorrelated tracks

█ Improved responsiveness from operators

█ Better data for conjunction analysis

█ Internally check data sources

- Standardized data sharing- Better information flow from operators- Easier communication

►Track and identify orbital objects

► Protect USMIL and other satellites - Predict

conjunctions- Protect DoD assets- Find/sign-up more operators

Customer Archetype (DoD Official)● Middle aged with a military background● Loyal to JSpOC and its mission● Hopeful for the future of tracking capabilities● Respectful of authority● Looking to advance U.S. interests● Mindful of classified data● Looking to advance personal career● Probably risk-averse

Mission Achievement:● Reduced pressure to provide contact

information

- Useful information- Easily accessible

- Secure sources of data

- Industry leader in ease of data sharing

- Direct sales

- Include link to chat room with JSpOC conjunction warnings

- Useful information- Easily accessible

- Develop content to meet needs

- Rapid response to UI and platform change requests

- Incremental product improvement to relieve customer pain points

- Useful information- Easily accessible

- Platform is industry norm

- Expand into other need areas of our customers

- Encourage communication about services among operators

Buy-in: 1) Commercial2) JSpOC

New areas of customer discovery

- Space-borne options to obtain better data

- Object shape information possibilities

- International user experience

- Software to standardize ephemeris data from different sources

Questions?