S&P500 Report 22Apr12

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Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

1929< X >

- A -

- B -

- C -

- D -

- E -

< Y >

II

- III -

- I -

- II -

( Y )

- IV -

- Y -

< II >1982( W )

( X )

- W -

- X -- I -

- II -

- III - - IV -

1966< I >- V -

2000< III >

- V -

- A -

- B -

Dow Jones Industrial Average (Monthly Log Scale)

This period looks congestive/correcitve.The Wave -V- did not start until thebeginning of 1995.

The Supercyle Wave II, which began in 1860,concluded in 1949.

- C -

- D -

- E -

< IV >2018-2030

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has become flawed (for wave counting purposes)over the years as it is an average, and not a true index of stocks. It is for this reasonthat we dont model the DJIA. However, the DJIA has a much longer history than the

S&P 500 and is useful in getting our bearings on the longer term wave model.

REPRINTED from 9/7/2010

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9/1/2000

< III >

- A -

S&P 500 ~ Monthly Log Scale

- B -

( A )

( B )

( E )

- C -

This continues to be the much longer term wave count. In technical parlance, we arewaiting on the Intermediate (B) Wave of Cycle -C- to conclude. We favor the idea ofTriangle Cycle -C- because Wave (A) was an elongated flat, something normallywitnessed within a triangle.

( C )

( D )

- D -

- E -< IV >

2018-2030

Baby Boomers will have fully exited theStock Market by this point


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9/1/2000

< III >

- A -

S&P 500 ~ Monthly Log Scale

- B -

( A )

( B )z

( E )

- C -

This longer term count remains favored. Nothing in the market has altered this view. Thehigher this (B) wave travels, though, it becomes more likely the (C) Wave will not be thatpowerful of a move. The (B) wave is telling a tale of underlying strength. So, the nextcorrective move lower should cause the S&P 500 to break below 1,000 but its unlikely wewill see action below 900. This next (C) will be at least a TWO YEAR grind lower.

( C )

( D )

w

x

y

x

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S&P 500 ~ Weekly

( A )

( B )

z

This primary count from the March 09 lows remains unchanged. The w-x-y-x-z structure still fits best. Iknow that Glenn Neely is labeling that move a triangle and I cant dispute that view yet. They both arefive corrective moves connected together. I dont think its a triangle because the first retracement hit anexact Fibonnaci percentage. In a triangle, the b-wave should NOT retrace an exact Fibbonacci.

w

e

x

y

a

b

c

d

a

b

c

d

e

x

e?

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S&P 500 ~ Weekly Legs

667( A )

( B )z?

1422

w1150

1040x

y1371

1202x

NOTES:

The first x corrected 22.8%, very close to the first Fibonacci retrace of 23.6%.The second x corrected 51%, very close to a classic 50% retrace.

Wave y was essentially 50.7% of w on a log scale, very close to 50%.If z concluded at 1422, it would be 60.8% of y on a log scale, very close to 61.8%

Bottom line: There are a lot of nice relationships here.

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S&P 500 ~ Weekly Log Scale

Markets have a memory. 1440 stands out to me becausethere were some good battles around that level. The greenarrows point out moments when the market couldnt close

below 1440. The last red arrow is the real highlight as it wasat that point the market started its collapse in earnest--fallingwithout much in the way of a retracement.

1440 is also the 85% retrace of the entire decline from top tobottom. I dont think 85% is a particularly important retrace

but I know some well known Ellioticians who do pay attentionto that level.


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7/12Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Daily with Weekly Support

This is me yawning at this market. Once again themarket stayed well within our first levels of resistanceand support. Ive raised the first level of weeklysupport to 1386 as this feels like a market that mustkeep maintaining even minor support points. 1340 isnear the 38.2% retrace and aligns well with a KEYmarket level.

1202

a

b

c

g?

e

d

f

i

h


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S&P 500 ~ Daily with Primary Support

Its still possible that this market makes another nominal high, but the

recent decline from 1422 looks severe enough to make that idea a longshot. 1338 looks like an extremely important technical level for the bullsto maintain. A break below 1338 would look very ominous. As it stands,there is a strong probability that weve seen the highs for 2012.

1202

a

b

c

g?

e

d

f

i?

h?

( B )z

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S&P 500 ~ 20 Min. Chart

I dont like to look a charts on this small of time scale normally. But, here Im trying to examine thenature of the decline from top. Unfortunately, its ambiguous. It looks more like a seven-leggedcorrective move lower, but I can see how someone might want to label it an impulse down. Thebounce back from the lows looks extremely corrective in nature--bulls should be worried about thelook of that sideways/choppy move. This whole pattern strongly suggests another leg down coming

on the S&P 500.

[1][a]

[2][b]

[3][c]

[4][d]

[.1]

[.2]

[.3][e]

[.4][f]

[.5] of [5][g]

[e]

[b]

[a]

[d]

[c]

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AAPL - Weekly with Backward Looking Fibonacci Retracements

If the S&P500 is crapping out now, this stock will be the prime culprit. Apple has been the vanguard of the stock market fora few years now. This one issue represents an astounding amount of market cap that will have an affect on the S&P500 ifit starts to trade down.

Presented below is backward looking Fibonacci retracements. It seems like markets often know wherethey are going to end up ahead of time and they often inflect at important retracements on the way.

Check out the way the market gyrated around what become the 50-61.8% retracement.

The $427 area is an interesting for another reason..

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AAPL - Daily with Gap to Fill

Check out that gap that begins at $431. All gaps get filled eventually. The$427-$431 area will be solid support on the first go. That will be smallconsolation to those longs who just experienced the $200 slide lower.

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DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER

This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. Thisreport is technical commentary only. The author is NOT representing himselfas a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. This merelyreflects the authors interpretation of technical analysis. The author may ormay not trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positionsopposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information contained inthis commentary is taken from sources the author believes to be reliable, but

it is not guaranteed by the author as to the accuracy or completeness thereofand is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading involvesrisk and is not for everyone.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has saidabout futures trading: Trading commodity futures and options is not foreveryone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Beforeyou invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consideryour financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much

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Wave Symbology

"I" or "A" = Grand SupercycleI or A = Supercycleor = Cycle-I- or -A- = Primary(I) or (A) = Intermediate"1 or "a" = Minor1 or a = Minute-1- or -a- = Minuette

(1) or (a) = Sub-minuette[1] or [a] = Micro[.1] or [.a] = Sub-Micro

PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE IS ADDITIONAL INTRA-WEEK AND INTRA-DAY DISCUSSION ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND TRADING ATTRADERS-ANONYMOUS.BLOGSPOT.COM

S&P500 Report 22Apr12

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