Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 13 September 2010 For Real-time information: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/
Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas
Dec 30, 2015
Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 13 September 2010. For Real-time information: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/. Outline. Highlights ENSO Current Status MJO Current Status - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major
Crops Areas
Update prepared byClimate Prediction Center / NCEP
13 September 2010
For Real-time information:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/
Outline
• Highlights
• ENSO Current Status
• MJO Current Status
• Monsoons Current Status
• Southern Hemisphere Circulation
• Rainfall & Temperature Patterns
• NCEP/GFS Model Forecast
• Forecast Verification
Australia: Widespread light to locally moderate rainfall continued across eastern Australia. The GFS forecasts a general drying trend, but locally heavy rainfall is possible across the northern extent of the wheat belt in Queensland.
Southern Africa: Dry, warm weather continued across most of southern Africa for another week. The GFS forecasts light to moderate rainfall developing in South Africa’s Cape provinces.
South America: Light showers continued across much of eastern and central Argentina through southern Rio Grande do Sul. Below-average rainfall persisted in the remainder of southeastern Brazil. The GFS forecasts drier weather across Argentina, with rainfall limited to southern Rio Grande do Sul.
Highlights
ENSO Current Status
For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml
During the last 4-weeks (15 Aug – 11 Sep 2010), SSTs were at least 1.0°C below-average between 165°E and the South American coast and more than 2.0°C below-average across small regions east of the International Date Line.
General Summary:
• La Niña conditions are present across the equatorial Pacific.
• Negative sea surface temperature anomalies persist across much of the Pacific Ocean.
• La Niña conditions are likely to continue through early 2011.
MJO Current Status
The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes
The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO
Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation.
Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength
Line colors distinguish different months
MJO Index -- Recent Evolution Ensemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast
RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days
light gray shading: 90% of forecasts
dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts
Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members
Green Line – Ensemble Mean
For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml
Despite some eastward propagation during the previous week, the MJO signal remains weak.
The GEFS forecast indicates no coherent MJO signal during the upcoming two weeks.
Southern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status
South America Southern Africa Australia
The dry season continued across southern Africa during the previous 90 days. Rainfall deficits greater than 30mm were observed across portions of South Africa and southern Mozambique, including Western Cape province.
For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/
Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days
Below-average precipitation was observed across most ofSouth America during the previous 90 days, particularly across portions of southern Brazil, including Parana. In contrast, above-average rainfall was observed from Buenos Aires, Argentina, through far southern Brazil, and along Brazil’s northeastern tip.
Near- to above-average rainfall was observed across much of Australia during the previous 90 days. A small area of below-average rainfall was observed in Western Australia’s primary wheat growing region.
Monsoon Season: NOV-APR
Monsoon Season: OCT-MAR
Monsoon Season: NOV-APR
Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days
Southern Hemisphere Circulation200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies - Recent 7 days
• During 4 – 10 Sep 2010, a weak upper level cyclonic circulation anomaly was observed near Western Australia. At the lower levels of the atmosphere, above-average temperatures were observed in eastern Argentina.
Low-level (925 hPa or ~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations.
Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.
AC A
C
C
C
Southern Hemisphere Circulation
Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter-than-average conditions.
Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-average conditions.
Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days
• During 4 – 10 Sep 2010, significant anomalous rising motion (negative omega, red shading) continued in central and northern Australia and was associated with continued rainfall. Another area of anomalous negative omega promoted increased rainfall across east portions of Argentina, but sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading) across southern Brazil promoted continued dryness in Parana.
CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations.
Australia
• Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns• Temperature Patterns• GFS Forecast
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days
Total Anomaly
During the last 7 days, light to moderate rainfall continued across eastern Australia’s wheat belt region.
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days
Total Anomaly
During the previous 15 days, widespread rainfall fell across all of the Australian wheat belt, increasing moisture levels ahead of critical crop development stages that typically occur in September.
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days
Total Anomaly
During the previous 30 days, generally above-average rainfall was observed across southern and eastern Australia’s croplands, while a pocket of below-average rainfall was observed in far southwestern Australia.
Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days
• 30-day rainfall time series across the Australian wheat belt depict the plentiful rainfall observed across most wheat belt locations. A 30 day deficit was observed in portions of Western Australia’s wheat belt (top left panel), but a significant rainfall boost occurred at the end of August.
Temperature (°C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC)
Extreme Minimum
Anomaly
Extreme Maximum Mean
•Near-average temperatures were observed across much of Australia during the previous week.
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts
Total Anomaly
For Days 1-7 (13 – 19 Sep 2010), the GFS forecasts additional rainfall, possibly heavy locally, for the northern portions of the wheat belt in Queensland. Drier weather is expected elsewhere across Australia’s croplands.
Forecasts from 13 Sep 2010 – Days 1-7
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts
Total Anomaly
Forecasts from 13 Sep 2010 – Days 8-14
For Days 8-14 (20 – 26 Sep 2010), widely spread showers are expected across much of eastern Australia’s wheat belt, with heavier rain possibly lingering in Queensland.
Southern Africa
• Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns• Temperature Patterns• GFS Forecast
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days
Total Anomaly
• During the last 7 days, mostly dry weather continued across southern Africa.
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days
Total Anomaly
During the last 15 days, seasonable dryness prevailed across southern Africa. Below-average rainfall was observed along the South African shoreline.
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days
Total Anomaly
During the last 30 days, below-average rainfall was observed across eastern South Africa and southern Mozambique.
Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days
• 30-day rainfall time series depict the seasonably dry weather across most of southern Africa, though deficits continue to grow across eastern locations.
Temperature (C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC)
Extreme Minimum
Anomaly
Extreme Maximum Mean
Above-average temperatures were observed across most of southern Africa.
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts
Total Anomaly
Forecasts from 13 Sep 2010 – Days 1-7
For Days 1-7 (13 – 19 Sep 2010), light to moderate rainfall is forecast for South Africa’s Cape provinces.
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts
Total Anomaly
Forecasts from 13 Sep 2010 – Days 8-14
For Days 8-14 (20 – 26 Sep 2010), light showers are possible across southeastern South Africa.
Brazil & Argentina
• Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns• Temperature Patterns• First Freeze in southern Argentina• GFS Forecast
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days
Total
Argentina
Brazil
Anomaly•Near average rainfall continued in far southern Brazil (southern Rio Grande do Sul), while the remainder of southern Brazil received below-average rainfall for another week.
•Showery weather continued across eastern Argentina, including much of Buenos Aires.
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 15 Days
Total
Argentina
Brazil
Anomaly• Rainy weather in southeastern Brazil was limited to the southern two thirds of Rio Grande do Sul. Precipitation deficits greater than 30mm were observed in portions of Parana.
•In Argentina, wet weather was observed across eastern farmlands, including central Buenos Aires and northeastern La Pampa.
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days
Total
Argentina
Brazil
Anomaly• Below-average rainfall was observed across central and southern Brazil during the previous 30 days, with the exception of central and southern Rio Grande do Sul.
•Above-average rainfall was observed across eastern Argentina, including northeastern La Pampa.
Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days
• Time series across central and eastern South America depict the increasing rainfall deficits across much of southeastern and southern Brazil, while northern Argentina received a rainfall boost at the end of August.
Temperature (°C) - BrazilBased on GTS Stations (no QC)
Extreme Minimum
Anomaly
Extreme Maximum Mean
Near- to above-average temperatures were observed across Brazil during the previous week.
Extreme Minimum
Anomaly
Extreme Maximum Mean
Temperature (°C) - ArgentinaBased on GTS Stations (no QC)
Much warmer weather overspread Argentina during the previous week, with maximum temperatures topping 30°C as far south as Cordoba.
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts
Total Anomaly
Forecasts from 13 Sep 2010 – Days 1-7
• For Days 1-7 (13 – 19 Sep 2010), limited rainfall is forecast to continue across most of central and southern Brazil during the upcoming week, with showers continuing across southern Rio Grande do Sul. Drier weather is forecast to return to eastern Argentina following periods of rainfall.
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts
Total Anomaly
Forecasts from 13 Sep 2010 – Days 8-14
• For Days 8-14 (20 – 26 Sep 2010), rainy weather is forecast to increase across southern Brazil, with light showers possible across central and northeastern Argentina.
USDA Crop Information
Major World Crop Areas and Climate Profiles
http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Other/MWCACP
Crop Calendars by Month
http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/CropCalendars
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