Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 22 February 2010 For Real-time information: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/
Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas
Jan 02, 2016
Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 22 February 2010. For Real-time information: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/. Outline. Highlights ENSO Current Status MJO Current Status - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major
Crops Areas
Update prepared byClimate Prediction Center / NCEP
22 February 2010
For Real-time information:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/
Outline
• Highlights
• ENSO Current Status
• MJO Current Status
• Monsoons Current Status
• Southern Hemisphere Circulation
• Rainfall & Temperature Patterns
• NCEP/GFS Model Forecast
• Forecast Verification
Australia: Heavy rain overspread most of eastern Australia during the past week. The GFS predicts near-average rainfall across this region during the upcoming week.
Southern Africa: During the last 7 days, near-to-slightly above-average rainfall was observed across corn-growing regions of southern Africa, with the heaviest rainfall over Mozambique. The GFS predicts above-average rainfall to continue over Mozambique during the next two weeks.
South America: Below-average rainfall continued over many areas in eastern Brazil during the last 7 days. The GFS predicts near-average rainfall for most of eastern Brazil during the next 7 days and above-average rainfall during week 2, which would be a break from the dryness over that area observed during the last 30 days.
Highlights
ENSO Current Status
General Summary:
• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
• Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.
During the last 4 weeks (24 Jan - 20 Feb 2010), equatorial SSTs were more than 1.0°C above average between 175°E and 125°W.
For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml
MJO Current StatusThe MJO Index indicates a signal in phases 7 and 8 with little or no eastward movement, which is consistent with El Nino conditions.
The GFS MJO index forecasts indicate that the signal will remain generally in phases 6, 7 and 8 with no eastward propagation.
El Nino conditions continue to contribute to the strong amplitude and behavior of the MJO index forecast.
The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes
The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO
Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation.
Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength
Line colors distinguish different months
MJO Index -- Recent Evolution Ensemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast
RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days
light gray shading: 90% of forecasts
dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts
Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members
Green Line – Ensemble Mean
For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml
Southern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status
South America Southern Africa Australia
During the previous 90 days, below-average rainfall was observed across eastern croplands of southern Africa, most notably in Mozambique.
For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/
Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days
During the previous 90 days, much below-average rainfall over northern and eastern south America contrasted with much above-average rainfall in southern Brazil, Uruguay, and northeastern Argentina.
During the previous 90 days, precipitation was near- to above-average across north central and east-central Australia, while pockets of below-average rainfall were present along the northwestern coastline.
Monsoon Season: NOV-APR
Monsoon Season: OCT-MAR
Monsoon Season: NOV-APR
Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days
Southern Hemisphere Circulation200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies - Recent 7 days
• During 14-20 Feb 2010, anomalous 200-hPa cyclonic circulation (black C) was observed at low latitudes near the coast of Bahia, Brazil, and another one over western Australia. An enhanced anticyclonic circulation center was present off of Australia’s southeastern coast.
• At low levels of the atmosphere, above-average temperatures were observed across western Australia and portions of northern South America. Below-average temperatures were observed over most of Argentina.
Low-level (925 hPa or ~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations.
Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.
C
AC
Southern Hemisphere Circulation
Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter-than-average conditions.
Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-average conditions.
Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days
• During 14-20 Feb 2010, anomalous sinking motion (blue rectangle) and dry conditions dominated large portions of eastern Brazil, on the west flank of the anomalous cyclonic circulation (see previous slide). Anomalous rising motion (negative omega) and above-average rainfall were observed over Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay and portions of southern Brazil, (red rectangle).
• Strong rising motion and heavy rainfall has been observed over eastern Australia, while strong anomalous sinking motion (positive omega) and dry conditions dominated most of central and western Australia.
CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations.
Australia
• Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns• Temperature Patterns• GFS Forecast• Tropical Cyclone Laurence
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days
Total Anomaly
During the last 7 days, widespread showers and thunderstorms overspread over most eastern Australia. Below-average precipitation was observed along Australia’s northwestern coastline.
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days
Total Anomaly
Heavy rainfall across eastern Australia produced accumulations well above average, particularly across interior New South Wales and Queensland.
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days
Total Anomaly
Above-average rainfall across the eastern half of Australia contrasted with drier than average conditions across northwestern areas. The heaviest rainfall during the previous 30 days was located across Queensland’s northern peninsula region, including Australia’s primary sugarcane croplands.
Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days
• 30-day rainfall totals are much above average over southern Queensland (surplus of about 100 mm).
Temperature (°C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC)
Extreme Minimum
Anomaly
Extreme Maximum Mean
• During 14-20 Feb 2010, temperatures were near- to above-average across most of eastern Australia, and above-average over most of western Australia.
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts
Total Anomaly
For Days 1-7 (22 – 28 February 2010), above-average rainfall is predicted over northwestern Australia, while near-average rainfall is predicted over Australia’a crop lands.
Forecasts from 22 Feb 2010 – Days 1-7
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts
Total Anomaly
Forecasts from 22 Feb 2010 – Days 8-14
For Days 8-14 (1-7 March 2010), the GFS predicts widespread rainfall over northwestern and northeastern Australia.
Forecast Verification: Australia
Total
Anomaly
Forecast from 8 Feb 2009 Valid 15-21 Feb 2010
Forecast from 16 Feb 2009 Valid 16-22 Feb 2010
Observed 15-21 Feb 2010
Anomaly Anomaly
Total Total
NOT AVAILABLE
NOT AVAILABLE
Southern Africa
• Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns• Temperature Patterns• GFS Forecast
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days
Total Anomaly
• During the last 7 days, generally near-to-slightly above-average rainfall was observed across corn-growing regions of southern Africa.
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days
Total Anomaly
During the last 15 days, generally below-average rainfall was observed across corn-growing regions of southern Africa, though slightly above-average rainfall was observed over portions of Mozambique.
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days
Total Anomaly
During the last 30 days, generally below-average rainfall was observed across southern Africa’s croplands, though portions of South Africa’s central and western maize triangle observed near- to above-average rainfall.
Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days
• 30-day rainfall time series depict the generally drier-than-average conditions across most of southern Africa, with the exception of Mozambique (top right panel).
Temperature (C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC)
Extreme Minimum
Anomaly
Extreme Maximum Mean
During 14-20 February, temperatures across southern Africa were near average.
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts
Total Anomaly
Forecasts from 22 Feb 2010 – Days 1-7
For Days 1-7 (22 – 28 Feb 2010), the GFS predicts above-average rainfall across Mozambique and southern South Africa and below-average rainfall over South Africa’s corn belt (red box, left panel).
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts
Total Anomaly
Forecasts from 22 Feb 2010 – Days 8-14
For Days 8-14 (1-7 March 2010), the GFS continue to predict above-average rainfall across Mozambique and near-average rainfall across South Africa’s maize triangle.
Forecast Verification: Southern Africa
Total
Anomaly
Forecast from 8 Feb 2009 Valid 15-21 Feb 2010
Forecast from 16 Feb 2009 Valid 16-22 Feb 2010
Observed 15-21 Feb 2010
Anomaly Anomaly
Total Total
NOT AVAILABLE
NOT AVAILABLE
Brazil & Argentina
• Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns• Temperature Patterns• GFS Forecast
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days
Total
Argentina
Brazil
Anomaly
• In Brazil, below-average rainfall continued across eastern farmlands, particularly across Minas Gerais, eastern Goias, and western Bahia.
• In Argentina, above-average rainfall fell across most of the major crop lands. Heavy rainfall was observed over southern Santa Fe and Entre Rios.
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 15 Days
Total
Argentina
Brazil
Anomaly• In Brazil, rainfall was predominantly below-average across most regions east of the Amazon. Some thunderstorms fired across Mato Grosso during the most recent week.
• Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall was observed across central and eastern Argentina during the previous two weeks.
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days
Total
Argentina
Brazil
Anomaly• Across Brazil, large 30 day precipitation deficits were observed across eastern farmlands, while pockets of heavy rain were observed over southern Mato Grosso and southern Brazil.
•In Argentina, drier than average conditions were observed over northern Argentina, while above –average rainfall prevailed over the eastern Argentina crop lands.
Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days
• 30-day time series depict the generally drier-than-average conditions across central and southeastern Brazil during the past month (top right panel).
Temperature (°C) - BrazilBased on GTS Stations (no QC)
Extreme Minimum
Anomaly
Extreme Maximum Mean
During 14-22 February, temperatures were generally above average across Brazil.
Extreme Minimum
Anomaly
Extreme Maximum Mean
Temperature (°C) - ArgentinaBased on GTS Stations (no QC)
Temperatures were above-average across much of northern Argentina last week, with maximum temperatures between 35°C and 40°C in northern cotton regions.
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts
Total Anomaly
Forecasts from 22 Feb 2010 – Days 1-7
• For Days 1-7 (22-28 February), near-average rainfall is predicted over most of Brazil, while above-average rainfall is predicted over Colombia and northern Ecuador and below-average rainfall is predicted over northern/central Peru.
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts
Total Anomaly
Forecasts from 22 Feb 2010 – Days 8-14
•For Days 8-14 (1-7 Mar), above-average rainfall is predicted for most of eastern Brazil, while below-average rainfall is predicted over southern Brazil, Paraguay and northern Argentina.
Forecast Verification: South America
Total
Anomaly
Forecast from 8 Feb 2009 Valid 15-21 Feb 2010
Forecast from 16 Feb 2009 Valid 16-22 Feb 2010
Observed 15-21 Feb 2010
Anomaly Anomaly
Total Total
NOT AVAILABLE
NOT AVAILABLE
USDA Crop Information
Major World Crop Areas and Climate Profiles
http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Other/MWCACP
Crop Calendars by Month
http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/CropCalendars
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