Climate change vulnerability assessment for the Southern California Climate Adaptation Project. Copyright EcoAdapt 2017. 1 Low High Southern California Endemic Habitats Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Summary An Important Note About this Document: This document represents an initial evaluation of vulnerability for endemic habitats based on expert input and existing information. Specifically, the information presented below comprises habitat expert vulnerability assessment survey results and comments, peer- review comments and revisions, and relevant references from the literature. The aim of this document is to expand understanding of habitat vulnerability to changing climate conditions, and to provide a foundation for developing appropriate adaptation responses. Habitat Description 12345 Endemic habitats feature specialized and distinct vegetative communities that are adapted to harsh and unique conditions derived, in part, from parent soil material. 1-5 Endemic habitats are typically limited in distribution, occupying distinct areas within the southern California study area. 1 Endemic habitats considered in this assessment include: serpentine, gabbro, carbonate, pebble plains, and clay lens communities. Habitat Vulnerability The relative vulnerability of endemic habitats in southern California was evaluated to be moderate by habitat experts due to moderate sensitivity to climate and non-climate stressors, moderate exposure to projected future climate changes, and moderate adaptive capacity. Shifts in precipitation, moisture availability, and temperature may affect endemic habitat composition, survival, and vulnerability to non-climatic stressors. Endemic communities have variable responses to fire, but increasing fire frequencies are unlikely to benefit even the most fire-adapted communities due to slow recovery following disturbance. Endemic habitats face a variety of non-climatic stressors that reduce habitat resilience by increasing fragmentation and/or by exacerbating climate-driven changes; human population growth may increase the severity/extent of these stressors in the future. Unique soil requirements largely moderate endemic habitat distribution, species composition, and sensitivity to climate and non-climate stressors. Small, isolated populations, specific soil requirements, limited dispersal capacity, and several landscape barriers limit endemic habitat dispersal and recovery potential in the face of climate change, but specialized vegetation enhances habitat resistance. Endemic systems provide a variety of ecosystem services including biodiversity and recreation. Moderate Vulnerability Photo by California Dept. of Fish and Wildlife (CC-BY-2.0) Moderate Confidence
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ClimatechangevulnerabilityassessmentfortheSouthernCaliforniaClimateAdaptationProject.CopyrightEcoAdapt2017.
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Low High
SouthernCaliforniaEndemicHabitatsClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessmentSummary
AnImportantNoteAboutthisDocument:Thisdocumentrepresentsaninitialevaluationofvulnerabilityforendemichabitatsbasedonexpertinputandexistinginformation.Specifically,theinformationpresentedbelowcompriseshabitatexpertvulnerabilityassessmentsurveyresultsandcomments,peer-reviewcommentsandrevisions,andrelevantreferencesfromtheliterature.Theaimofthisdocumentistoexpandunderstandingofhabitatvulnerabilitytochangingclimateconditions,andtoprovideafoundationfordevelopingappropriateadaptationresponses.
HabitatDescription12345Endemichabitatsfeaturespecializedanddistinctvegetativecommunitiesthatareadaptedtoharshanduniqueconditionsderived,inpart,fromparentsoilmaterial.1-5Endemichabitatsaretypicallylimitedindistribution,occupyingdistinctareaswithinthesouthernCaliforniastudyarea.1Endemichabitatsconsideredinthisassessmentinclude:serpentine,gabbro,carbonate,pebbleplains,andclaylenscommunities.
HabitatVulnerability
TherelativevulnerabilityofendemichabitatsinsouthernCaliforniawasevaluatedtobemoderatebyhabitatexpertsduetomoderatesensitivitytoclimateandnon-climatestressors,moderateexposuretoprojectedfutureclimatechanges,andmoderateadaptivecapacity.Shiftsinprecipitation,moistureavailability,andtemperaturemayaffectendemichabitatcomposition,survival,andvulnerabilitytonon-climaticstressors.Endemiccommunitieshavevariableresponsestofire,butincreasingfirefrequenciesareunlikelytobenefiteventhemostfire-adaptedcommunitiesduetoslowrecoveryfollowingdisturbance.Endemichabitatsfaceavarietyofnon-climaticstressorsthatreducehabitatresiliencebyincreasingfragmentationand/orbyexacerbatingclimate-drivenchanges;humanpopulationgrowthmayincreasetheseverity/extentofthesestressorsinthefuture.Uniquesoilrequirementslargelymoderateendemichabitatdistribution,speciescomposition,andsensitivitytoclimateandnon-climatestressors.Small,isolatedpopulations,specificsoilrequirements,limiteddispersalcapacity,andseverallandscapebarrierslimitendemichabitatdispersalandrecoverypotentialinthefaceofclimatechange,butspecializedvegetationenhanceshabitatresistance.Endemicsystemsprovideavarietyofecosystemservicesincludingbiodiversityandrecreation.
ModerateVulnerability
PhotobyCaliforniaDept.ofFishandWildlife(CC-BY-2.0)
ModerateConfidence
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Sensitivity
Endemichabitatsaresensitivetoseveralclimatedrivers,includingdrought,precipitation,soilmoisture,andextremehightemperatureevents.Ingeneral,endemichabitatsareadaptedtoharshconditions(e.g.,lowmoistureandnutrientavailability)andarefairlyresilienttofluctuationsinprecipitationandtemperatureduetohistoricalexposure,althoughindividualspeciesresiliencevaries.2Inaddition,uniquesoilpropertiesalsocontrolendemicspeciescomposition,distribution,andsensitivitytoclimateandnon-climatedrivers.1,3-5Endemicsystemsaresensitivetoavarietyofnon-climatestressorsthatdestroy,fragment,and/ordegradehabitats,aswellasexacerbateclimatechangeimpacts.1,5HumanpopulationgrowthinsouthernCaliforniawilllikelyenhancemanyofthesenon-climatestressors,furtherincreasingrisktoendemiccommunitiesasdevelopmentapproachesnationalforestboundaries.
Habitatsensitivityfactorsandimpacts*
CLIMATICDRIVERSModerateSensitivityModerateConfidence
Precipitation&soilmoisture
Endemiccommunitiesarelargelyadaptedtowaterstressandunproductivesoils,2butshiftsinprecipitationorsoilmoisturemayresultin:• Alteredspeciescomposition,cover,richness,andfitness• Alteredvulnerabilitytonon-climatestressors(e.g.,invasivespeciesin
serpentinehabitats;6-9soildisturbanceinpebbleplains)4,56789Drought Droughtimpactsarevariabledependingondroughtlength,seedbank
persistence,dormancycues,phenologyandresilienceofpollinatorsandmycorrhizae,soilmicrobes,andotherfactors.Increaseddroughtmayresultin:• Increasedmortalityandreducedgerminationandrecruitmentforsome
habitats10-12101112• Alteredinvasivespeciespressure9andconiferandshrubencroachment
patternsExtremehightemperatureevents
Airtemperaturemayinfluenceplantsurvivalorcommunitycomposition.Increasedairtemperaturesmaycause:• Alteredcommunitycompositionorencroachmentofothervegetative
communities,4particularlyiftemperaturechangesdrivesnowpackshifts• Alteredplantsurvival;manyphysiologicalheattolerancesareunknown
Snowpack† Incarbonateandserpentinecommunities,snowpackprovidesinsulationandreduceswinddesiccation.13,14Inpebbleplainscommunities,snowpackprotectstheclay-soilmatrixandpromotesfrostheaveintherootzone,helpingpreventshrubandtreeencroachment.Decreasedsnowpackmaycause:• Higherexposuretowindandcoldtemperatures• Increasedvulnerabilitytotreeandshrubencroachment• Increasederosion
*Factorspresentedarethoserankedhighestbyhabitatexperts.AfulllistofevaluatedfactorscanbefoundintheEndemicsHabitatsClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessmentSynthesis.†Onlysomeendemichabitatsaresensitivetosnowpackdepth(i.e.,pebbleplains,serpentine,carbonate).
ModerateSensitivity HighConfidence
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DISTURBANCEREGIMESModerateSensitivityHighConfidenceWildfire Endemichabitatsvaryintheirsensitivitytowildfire:carbonatecommunitiesare
fairlyfire-intolerant,5serpentinespeciesareadaptedtoperiodicfire,3,5,15andgabbrocommunitiesdependonfireforregeneration.5Manycommunitiesareslowtorecoverfromfire.4,5Alteredfireregimescouldcause:• Shiftsinspeciescomposition,enhancedmortality,morefrequent
regenerationfailures,orpotentialtypeconversiontoothersystems4,5,15NON-CLIMATESTRESSORSModerateSensitivity&ExposureModerateConfidence
Serpentinecommunities
• Invasivespecies:atmosphericnitrogen(N)depositionreducesnaturalresiliencetoinvasion;6,16enhancedNdepositionandelevatedwateravailabilityincreaseinvasionsuccessovertime,whiledisturbanceincreasesshort-terminvasivesuccess7
• Off-roadvehicles:mayincreasetramplinganddisturbance17,18• Grazing,energyandmining:historicalstressors(lessprevalenttoday)5,8
Carbonatecommunities
• Energyproductionandmining:limestone,sand/gravel,andcalcium-carbonateminingmaydestroyorfragmenthabitat,alterlocalmicroclimates,causedirectmortalityorundesirableedgeeffects,andaffectplantphenologythroughlightpollution12
• Manyotherhumanactivitiesmayalterandfragmenthabitat,increasesoilcompactionanderosion,altersurface/soilhydrologyandaffectplantvigorandfitness1,5,12
Gabbrocommunities
• Miningandland-useconversion:maydegradeorextirpategabbrospecies1,4
Pebbleplainscommunities
• Recreation:maycausetrampling,uprooting,sedimentation,andsoilloss1,5• OHVandillegalvehicleuse:rutsaltersurfacehydrologyandcausesoil
compaction,removetheclaymatrix,destroyvegetation,andinvertseedbanks,5especiallywhensoilsaresaturated
• Roads:alternaturalsheetwaterflow,generatedustthatdisruptsphotosynthesisandreproduction,facilitateinvasivespeciesestablishment,5andprovideaccesspointsforunauthorizedvehicles
• Invasivespecies:alterecologicalfunctioning,1competeformoistureandnutrients,andincreasesurfaceorganics
• Firesuppression:salinewaterandpersonnelcamps/vehiclesharmplants1
Exposure‡
Underfutureclimateconditions,endemichabitatsarelikelytobeexposedtoprecipitationchangesandincreasedwildfire.Thescientificliteratureprojectsthatroughly66%ofendemic‡RelevantreferencesforregionalclimateprojectionscanbefoundintheSouthernCaliforniaClimateOverview(http://ecoadapt.org/programs/adaptation-consultations/socal).
ModerateExposure ModerateConfidence
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planttaxainCaliforniawilllikelyexperiencesignificantrangereductions(>80%)by2100.19Projectionsindicatethatendemicplantdiversitymayshifttowardmorecoastaland/ornorthernlocationsinCaliforniabytheendofthecentury,althoughsomespeciesmayexhibitsouthwardmovementastheyattempttocolonizethecoastalmountainsofsouthernCalifornia.19Inaddition,topographicalrefugiamayalsobepresentatthelocalscale.14Migrationtorefugiawillbelimitedbyspatialisolation,soilspecificity,limiteddispersalcapacity,andtheseverityandinteractionofvariousclimatechanges.2,14,19
Projectedclimateandclimate-drivenchangesforSouthernCaliforniaCLIMATICDRIVERS PROJECTEDCHANGE
Precipitation&snowpack
Variableannualprecipitationvolumeandtiming,withwetterwintersanddriersummers;reducedsnowpack(-42%)andearliersnowmeltbymid-century
Soilmoisture&drought
Increasedclimaticwaterdeficit;longerandmoreseveredroughtswithdroughtyearstwiceaslikelytooccur
Wildfire Increasedfiresize,frequency,andseverityAirtemperature&extremeheat
events
+2.5to+9°Cby2100;heatwaves,particularlyhumidnighttimeheatevents,willoccurmorefrequently,lastlonger,andfeaturehottertemperatures
AdaptiveCapacity§
Smallandisolatedpopulations,uniquesoilrequirements,limiteddispersalcapacity,andseverallandscapebarriersmayinhibittheabilityofendemichabitatstotrackshiftsinclimate.Althoughendemicvegetationisadaptedtofairlyharshconditions,thesespeciesaretypicallyslowtorecoverfromdisturbance.Endemichabitatsharborhighbiodiversity,butalsomanythreatenedandendangeredspecies,whichmaybemoresensitivetoclimatechangeduetolimiteddistribution.1,2,5,19,20Amajorityofserpentine,carbonate,andpebbleplainshabitatsoccuronnationalforestland,whilethemajorityofgabbrooutcropsoccuronnon-federalland.1
Habitatadaptivecapacityfactorsandcharacteristics**FACTORS HABITATCHARACTERISTICSHabitatextent,integrity,&continuity
Low-Moderate
ModerateConfidence
-Smallanddisjunctpopulations1-5arevulnerabletoextirpation19,20
-Limiteddispersaldistances(average10-100m;rare>1km),2,11makeitunlikelythatendemicspecieswillkeeppacewithclimatechange19
-Manyendemicshavelowproductivity,recoverslowlyfrom
§Pleasenotethatthecolorschemeforadaptivecapacityhasbeeninverted,asthosefactorsreceivingarankof“High”enhanceadaptivecapacitywhilethosefactorsreceivingarankof“Low”undermineadaptivecapacity.**Characteristicswithagreenplussigncontributepositivelytohabitatadaptivecapacity,whilecharacteristicswitharedminussigncontributenegativelytohabitatadaptivecapacity.
ModerateAdaptiveCapacity HighConfidence
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FACTORS HABITATCHARACTERISTICSdisturbance,andareoutcompetedonallbutthemostuniqueandharshsoiltypes1,4,5
Landscapepermeability
Moderate
ModerateConfidence
-Thereareseveralbarrierstoendemichabitat/speciesdispersal,includingenergyproductionandmining,transportationcorridors,land-useconversion,grazing,andgeologicfeatures
-Dispersalisalsolimitedbyspecificsoilrequirements2
Resistance&recovery
Low-Moderate
ModerateConfidence
+Vegetationisadaptedtouniqueandharshconditions-Recoveryisslowandlimited
Habitatdiversity
Moderate-High
ModerateConfidence
+/-Collectivediversityamongstallendemichabitatsishigh;diversitywithinagivenendemicassociationislower
+Highendemism;harbormanythreatenedandendangeredplantandanimalspecies21
Managementpotential
Low-Moderate
HighConfidence
+Moderatesocietalvalue:valuedforrecreationalopportunities,scenicquality,biodiversity,habitatprovisioning,andendemism
+Endemichabitatsprovideavarietyofecosystemservices:biodiversity,watersupply/quality/sedimenttransport,recreation,carbonsequestration,nitrogenretention,airquality,publichealth,fireregimecontrols,andfloodanderosionprotection
-Somehabitatsvaluedforeconomicpotential(e.g.,mining),whichmaythreatenhabitatpersistence
RecommendedCitationReynier,W.A.,L.E.Hilberg,andJ.M.Kershner.2017.SouthernCaliforniaEndemicHabitats:ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessmentSummary.Version1.0.EcoAdapt,BainbridgeIsland,WA.
ThisdocumentisavailableonlineattheEcoAdaptwebsite(http://ecoadapt.org/programs/adaptation-consultations/socal).
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