SOUTH CAROLINA CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS WEBCAST TRAINING SOUTH CAROLINA ASSOCIATION OF COUNTIES May 21, 2015 By Frank A. Rainwater Executive Director Mike.

SOUTH CAROLINA CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS

WEBCAST TRAINING

SOUTH CAROLINAASSOCIATION OF COUNTIES

May 21, 2015

By

Frank A. RainwaterExecutive Director

Mike MacfarlaneDemographic Director

South Carolina Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office1000 Assembly Street

Rembert Dennis Building, Suite 402Columbia, SC 29201

(803) 734-2265

POINTS TO REMEMBER

Heraclitus Mark Twain

May 21, 2015

“Change is the only constant in life.”

~Heraclitus 500 BC

May 21, 2015

“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and

statistics.”~Mark Twain quoting Prime Minister

Disraeli

Mark Twain Prime Minister Disraeli

SC CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS

• Continuous change

• Different than in prior decades

• Varies from county to county

SOME KEY POINTS ARE:

• South Carolina’s natural increase is declining, but net migration has been large enough to result in a consistent net gain.

• The proportion of people in South Carolina who can speak a foreign language is increasing.

• The largest sources of domestic migration into South Carolina are the Northeast states and our immediate neighbors (North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida).

• The population as a whole is getting older, particularly in rural counties.

• The proportion of SC population in urban areas is increasing.

NOTES

• SC experienced a loss in net migration until 1980

• Recent net migration gains are larger than natural increase

• Impact of natural increase is different than net migration

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Department of Health and Environmental Control, Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office. JSM 3/9/15

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Department of Health and Environmental Control, Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office. JSM 3/9/15

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Department of Health and Environmental Control, Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office. JSM 3/13/15

NOTES

• Relationship between natural growth and net migration is different in each county

• Last Census noted tremendous variations between counties

• Impact may vary based upon actual number or percentage of population

Source: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income Division, Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office. JSM 2/25/15

Source: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income Division, Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office. JSM 2/25/15Source: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income Division, Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office. JSM 2/25/15

Source: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income Division, Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office. JSM 2/25/15

NOTES

• Largest number of net migration gains are from New York and New Jersey

• Largest percentage of net migrations are from North Carolina and Georgia

• Large in-migration before recession

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2000 Census of Population, American Community Survey 2009-2013, Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office JSM 3/13/15

Source: U.S. Bureau of Census, 2000 Census of Population, American Community Survey 2009-2013, Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office. JSM 3/12/15

Source: U.S. Bureau of Census, 2000 Census of Population, American Community Survey 2009-2013, Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office JSM 3/12/15

NOTES

• Number of residents who speak a language other than English is increasing

• Spanish is becoming a larger share of the other languages

• Pattern varies by county• Remember “Twain”

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census of Population and Housing 1950-2010, Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office. JSM 3/13/15

NOTES

• SC median age between 1970 and 2013 – increased from 26 to 38 years

• The increase stems from the aging baby boomers

NOTES

• SC population is becoming more urbanized

• Urbanization does not mean living within municipal boundaries

• Community patterns drastically affect “daytime” and “nighttime” populations

APPENDIX

Fairfield12.2 %

LeeGreenwood

Clarendon

Georgetown

SC NATURAL INCREASE BY COUNTY

1950-2010

Horry

Charleston

BeaufortJasper

HamptonColleton

DorchesterBerkeley

Williamsburg

Marion

Dillon

Florence

Orangeburg

Bamberg

Allendale

Barnwell

Aiken

Edgefield

SaludaLexington

RichlandSumter

Darlington

MarlboroChesterfieldLancaster

KershawFairfieldNewberry

McCormick

Abbeville

LaurensAnderson

Oconee

Pickens

Greenville

Spartanburg

Cherokee

York

Union Chester

Calhoun

100,001 to 196,609

30,001 to 100,000

10,001 to 30,000

3,561 to 10,000

Statewide: 1,719,418

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and S.C. Department of Health & Environmental Control. RFA: JSM: 3/18/15

Fairfield12.2 %

SC NATURAL INCREASE BY COUNTY

2000-2010

Horry

Georgetown

Charleston

BeaufortJasper

HamptonColleton

DorchesterBerkeley

Williamsburg

Marion

Dillon

Florence

Clarendon

Orangeburg

Bamberg

Allendale

Barnwell

Aiken

Edgefield

SaludaLexington

RichlandSumter

Lee

Darlington

MarlboroChesterfieldLancaster

KershawFairfieldNewberry

Greenwood

McCormick

Abbeville

LaurensAnderson

Oconee

Pickens

Greenville

Spartanburg

Cherokee

York

Union Chester

Calhoun

10,001 to 25,417

1,001 to 10,000

1 to 1,000

-352 to 0

Statewide: 201,268

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and S.C. Department of Health & Environmental Control. RFA: JSM: 3/18/15