South american modernisation efforts

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Jane's Defence Weekly

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Trials of regeneration: South American modernisation efforts

Military spending in South America is poised to rise as a generation of Cold War-era equipment faces

obsolescence, writes Inigo Guevara

South American military planners face a significant challenge as the increasing need to modernise legacy

conventional weapon inventories competes for budgets with the growing demands of internal security

capabilities. Most of the continent's militaries have - and look set to retain - responsibility for surveillance

of airspace, borders, and exclusive economic zones (EEZs).

The region's last major military modernisation took place in the 1970s and early 1980s, when military

juntas ruled nine of out South America's 12 nations. The peak of the Cold War, combined with not-so-

neighbourly policies, steered defence planning to hypotheses of traditional conflict. Argentina planned for

a potential war with Chile, which responded in kind and added Peru and Bolivia to its defence threat

scenarios. Meanwhile, Peru girded for conflict with Chile and Ecuador, Brazil with Argentina, Paraguay with

Bolivia, and so on.

During this modernisation, squadrons of Cessna A-37B Dragonflies, Northrop F-5s and Dassault Mirage

III/5-series fighters, AMX-30 main battle tanks (MBTs), Type 209 submarines, and Lupo-class frigates

helped replace a generation of Second World War-era equipment.

[Continued in full version…]

Brazil to the fore

Several countries have started planning, and some have begun implementation, but in its long-term

strategy the clear leader is Brazil. Not only has Brazil laid out its force development requirements up to the

late 2040s, but more importantly the nation has the patience and ambition to create a national industrial

base that will absorb technical know-how to become a global middle power.

Brazil requires new aircraft carriers; helicopter-carrying amphibious assault ships; Saab Gripen E/F combat

aircraft; Embraer KC-390 transport aircraft; 6,000-ton frigates; SN-BR nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs);

Scorpène diesel-electric submarines (SSKs); families of 4x4, 6x6, and 8x8 armoured vehicles; ASTROS II Mk-

6 multiple rocket launchers; the range of vehicles and systems under the COBRA future soldier programme;

and self-propelled anti-aircraft systems.

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A computer-generated image of the Saab Gripen E in Brazilian colours. The Brazilian Air Force has signed up for 28 single-seat Gripen E and eight twin-seat Gripen F aircraft. (Saab)

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However, as most requirements were laid out around 2006-08 amid an economic bonanza, Brazil's

economic slowdown could delay, modify, or even end some programmes.

The delivery of a 50,000-ton aircraft carrier, for example, has slipped from 2023 to 2028. In the meantime,

the ageing carrier São Paulo is now expected to remain in service until 2029, with a 48-month update due

to begin in 2017. Delays have also snowballed in Brazil's embarked aviation programmes. The AF-1 upgrade

of the McDonnell Douglas A-4KU Skyhawk programme has been set back to 2017, while the Grumman C-1

Trader carrier onboard delivery (KC-2) programme has been put back to 2018.

The Blue Amazon Management and Surveillance System's (SisGAAz's) complexity and expected

subcontracting needs put it among the most most anticipated programmes. SisGAAz will provide the

Brazilian Navy with a comprehensive system that will provide surveillance and maritime traffic

management over its resource-rich EEZ and maritime area of responsibility, which is dubbed the Blue

Amazon.

In June a main contractor for the BRL10 billion (USD3.5 billion) project is set to be announced from a

shortlist of three revealed in January: Embraer Defesa & Segurança (EDS) partnered with Airbus Defence

and Space and Elbit subsidiary AEL Sistemas; Orbital Engenharia partnered with China Aerospace Science &

Industry Corporation (CASIC); and Odebrecht Defesa e Tecnologia (ODT) partnered with Indra Sistemas,

Saab, and the MDA Corporation.


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Argentina's message: co-operation or competition?

The new Brazilian Gripen programme faced its first commercial challenge in October 2014 when it became

clear that UK export restrictions would block exports to Argentina of key components such as the Selex-

Saab ES05 Raven active electronically scanned-array radar, the Selex Skyward-G infrared search-and-track

system, AP Precision Hydraulics landing gear, and the Martin-Baker Mk 10L ejection seat.

Argentina could become a local marketer for China's VN1 APC. (Norinco)

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The UK's prohibition proved that Brazil has yet to reach technological and commercial independence.

Reliance on third-party approval for defence exports has been a thorn in the side of Brazil's defence

industry since 2005, when Embraer failed to gain export licences for key components of the EMB-314

Super Tucano light turbo-prop fighter and lost a USD500 million sale to Venezuela.

After attending the KC-390 roll-out ceremony on 21 October 2014, Argentine Defence Minister Agustin

Rossi had announced an interest in procuring up to 24 Brazilian-built Gripens, but his announcement may

have been simply to pressure the Argentine-Brazilian defence-industry co-operation relationship, which

has several ongoing programmes.

The most advanced of these appears to be Argentina's co-operation in the KC-390 programme. The

Argentine government reported investing USD35 million in outfitting the state-owned Fábrica Argentina de

Aviones (FAdeA) aircraft factory to produce KC-390 components and is expected to procure six aircraft as

replacements for its ageing C-130 Hercules fleet.

Meanwhile, the joint VLEGA Gaucho air-transportable vehicle programme, under development since 2004,

has failed to reach series production and appears at a standstill. However, the largest disappointment has

been the Unasur I primary trainer programme. Amid the hype of regional unity and defence co-operation

that accompanied the establishment in 2008 of the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR), Argentina

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led a multinational project to produce a primary training aircraft that would become the standard in South

America.

The FAdeA IA-73 Unasur I was intended to equip air forces of UNASUR members including Argentina,

Colombia, Chile, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela. From the outset Brazil offered its

support, providing funding to Brazilian companies interested in the project. However, on 22 August 2014

Brazilian company Novaer flew the T-Xc Pilgrim two-seat side-by-side primary trainer for the first time and

announced that the aircraft had been designed as a T-25 Universal replacement for the Brazilian Air Force

and would be offered for export as a direct competitor to the IA-73 Unasur I.

Chile, Colombia, Peru, Paraguay, and Uruguay have now decided either to directly procure other aircraft

types or to launch their own national aircraft trainer projects. Only Ecuador and Venezuela maintain an

official interest in procuring the IA-73, but both have recently procured trainers from Diamond Aircraft. As

of late February 2015 IHS Jane's sources in Argentina report the IA-73 Unasur I programme has been

shelved or cancelled, with the sole prototype stored.

As political interest in defence co-operation with Brazil winds down, so does the future of Argentina's

interest in 14 6x6 Iveco Guarani armoured vehicles to equip its portion of the binational Cruz del Sur

(Southern Cross) international peacekeeping force. Rossi's October 2014 announcement of KC-390

participation and interest in the Gripen was shortly followed by the announcement of a new defence

technology co-operation agreement with China. Talks with China involved JF-17 fighters, a polar

icebreaker, six ocean tugs, five 1,800-ton P18 offshore patrol vessels (OPVs) and, coincidentally, 14 Norinco

VN-1 8x8 armoured vehicles.

Furthermore, in December 2014 Rossi announced ongoing negotiations to establish a Norinco armoured

vehicle factory in Argentina, which would compete directly with the Iveco Guarani in the South American

market. However, previous plans, including a 2011 programme to assemble the Changhe Z-11 light

helicopter, an unlicensed copy of the Airbus Helicopters Ecureuil, have not materialised. Despite

establishing an assembly plant to produce 40 Z-11s for the Argentine armed forces and compete with the

Helibras Esquilo - a Brazilian licensed copy of the Ecureuil - the only example delivered is reportedly

grounded due to lack of spares.


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Argentina and China have formed a working group to look at introducing into Argentine service either the J-10 (pictured) or FC-1/JF-17 fighter aircraft. (PA)

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Chile strives for excellence

Chile, the other nation on the southern tip of the continent, faces a completely different scenario. Its

military continues to savour the spoils of a decade-long modernisation programme that has made it one of

the region's best-equipped forces.

In late 2014 the Chilean Army took delivery of its last two batches of 24 BAE Systems M109A3/A5 155 mm

SPHs as replacements for its AMX Mk-F3 155 mm systems. The new guns join a batch of 24 M109A3s

procured from Ruag a decade earlier. A further batch of about 100 Leopard 2s appears to have been

discarded, as current tank holdings are considered adequate.

Attention is now being placed on enhancing the army's fighting capabilities in quality rather than quantity,

with force multipliers such as a new command-and-control (C2) system and battlefield management tools.

In the next few years the most pressing Chilean hardware need will be for new 6x6 and/or 8x8 armoured

vehicles to replace the army's current staple of home-grown Piranhas, for which the Iveco Guarani and the

General Dynamics Land Systems (GDLS) LAV III are the most likely contenders. The Chilean Army also needs

a few armed reconnaissance helicopters to replace its McDonnell Douglas MD 530F scouts and will also

benefit from expanding its medium transport assets with up to 12 additional Airbus Helicopters H225M

(formerly EC725) Cougars or Sikorsky UH-60M Black Hawks.


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Bolivia shows room to grow

Bolivia has embarked on a substantial force modernisation programme. Just a decade ago the Bolivian

Army's main communication device was the 19th century telegraph. Since December 2013, however, it has

been using the Tupac Katari, its own national communications satellite, and a second satellite is expected

in 2018.

In 2014 Bolivia also significantly expanded its military's manpower, setting broad requirements in infantry

equipment, general logistics, and land mobility.

The Bolivian Army took delivery last year of six H425 multirole helicopters, the civilian version of the Harbin

Z-9 'Haitun', which have formed a new air cavalry unit. Meanwhile, the air force took delivery of the first of

four Airbus Helicopters EC145s and six AS332 C1e Super Pumas, the latter apparently in lieu of Russian

Helicopters' Mi-17.

Bolivia is to receive six Super Puma helicopters by the end of 2015. (Airbus Helicopters)

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Bolivia's priorities in 2015 will be to establish an air surveillance radar network to equip the new Airspace

Security and Defence Command, which was stood up on 17 October 2014. Thales is understood to be the

prime contractor and will supply six radars and a C2 centre under a USD200 million contract. Funding will

come via a special hydrocarbon tax designed to develop the landlocked nation's communications

infrastructure.

The Bolivian Airspace Security and Defence commander announced that the country needs up to 36

interceptor aircraft, which will require an expansion of the current fleet. The Bolivian Air Force took

delivery of six Chinese-designed Hongdu K-8WB Karakorum combat trainers in 2011 and will have to

replace an ageing fleet of 12 upgraded Lockheed T-33 trainers and a score of remaining Pilatus PC-7 armed

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turboprop trainers. A mixed fleet of light jet fighters and turboprop aircraft is likely to be required around

the end of the decade.

Colombia's threats reshape

In February a Colombian Air Force C-130 transport aircraft took Defence Minister Juan Carlos Pinzon and

Navy Commander Admiral Hernando Willis Velez to Antarctica, where they linked up with the Colombian

Navy's first Antarctic expedition. The expedition followed the January announcement that Colombia will

soon participate in international peacekeeping and take up previous talks of expanding co-operation with

NATO.

Pinzon's intention is to broadcast the message that the Military Forces of Colombia (Fuerzas Militares de

Colombia) are ready to flex their muscles with an extended reach. Since 2002 the country's armed forces

have grown by 50% from 300,000 to 450,000, transforming from a fairly inefficient territorial defence force

into a flexible and highly capable force that has implemented some of the most sophisticated military

operations in South America's modern history.

Along with enhanced mobility, improved intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities

have been a common denominator in these operations' success.

The helicopter fleets of the air force and army aviation have expanded considerably. With close to 100

Sikorsky UH-60 helicopters in multiple versions, including the Angel combat search-and-rescue version and

the latest Arpia IV anti-tank-equipped gunship, Colombia now boasts one of the largest and also most

battle-proven Black Hawk helicopter fleets in the world.

With close to 100 Sikorsky UH-60 helicopters in multiple versions in service, Colombia now boasts one of the largest Black Hawk fleets in the world. (IHS/Patrick Allen)

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Attention is shifting towards giving Colombia a modest but capable force projection capability that will

undoubtedly prompt further transformation of its military. This shift will need to rebalance conventional

and irregular warfare capacities, as internal security will not disappear completely from the Colombian

armed forces' roles and missions in the medium to long term.

Colombia has begun to modernise its armour and artillery holdings, selecting the Textron Systems M1117

Commando Advanced 4x4 armoured security vehicle (ASV), the GDLS LAV III 8x8 armoured personnel

carrier, and the Nexter LG1 105 mm light gun. However, procurement of heavier equipment, including

batteries of 155 mm SPHs and up to 44 MBTs, have been postponed. The BAE Systems M109A5 or Nexter

CAESAR were among the SPH contenders, while the KMW Leopard 2, GDLS M1A1 Abrams, Nexter Leclerc,

Hyundai K1A1, and Merkava III were considered for the MBT requirement.

The export version of the ASV for Colombia in the APC configuration has a longer wheelbase for greater internal volume and is shown here fitted with a protected weapon station. (Textron)

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Thanks to a comprehensive USD300 million upgrade, Colombia deploys the four most capable frigates in

the Caribbean. These will be joined by two more by 2019, to be built at the local Cotecmar shipyards under

the Strategic Surface Platform (PES) programme. The new frigates will require a full anti-submarine warfare

(ASW) capability and an embarked medium helicopter, for which the Sikorsky Seahawk is apparently the

navy's favourite.


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Peru: catching up on requirements

After years of neglecting its armed forces, the Peruvian Defence Ministry has launched a series of

procurement programmes under the umbrella of a new offset law. All services are receiving at least some

attention, although myriad capabilities need to be updated.

In late 2014 the army began taking delivery of 24 new Ulan Ude Mi-171Sh 'Hip' transport helicopters.

These will be joined by a regional helicopter maintenance centre as part of a USD180 million offset of the

overall USD540 million helicopter deal.

Land systems have not particularly benefited from the modernisation drive. The army still requires a new

MBT to replace its ageing fleet of T-55s, and new multiple rocket launchers to replace its BM-21s, along

with 155 mm SPHs to replace ageing M109A2s and AMX F3s. The service also needs new 155 mm towed

howitzers and man-portable air defence systems as well as wheeled and tracked APCs. More pressing

requirements include a long-delayed selection of a new assault rifle and medium trucks.

The Peruvian Navy has launched a comprehensive modernisation process, so far spearheaded by the local

construction at its SIMA shipyards of two 7,300-ton South Korean Makassar-class amphibious warfare ships

capable of transporting 450 troops and operating two helicopters.

State firm SIMA is also building a 3,500-ton sail training ship - the largest in South America - and five 500-

ton OPVs, the latter through a licence from South Korea's STX Offshore & Shipbuilding. In July 2014 the

Peruvian marine corps announced a USD67 million contract for 32 GDLS LAV II APCs, with deliveries to

begin in mid-2015.

To meet its new medium transport aircraft requirement the Peruvian Air Force (FAP) selected the Alenia C-

27J Spartan over the Airbus Military C295M, which, until now, had dominated sales in South America. The

C-27J Spartan programme has included four aircraft ordered in two batches valued at a combined USD245

million. The first pair is expected to reach the FAP in 2015.

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The first of four C-27Js was handed over to Peru on 27 February. The South American country should have all four aircraft sometime in 2017. (Alenia Aermacchi)

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Ecuador returns to traditional sources

The Ecuadorian armed forces' post-2008 modernisation programme bought a new generation of systems

from non-traditional suppliers to South America: HAL Dhruv advanced light helicopters from India, China

Electronics Technology Corporation (CETC) YLC-2V long-range 3-D and YLC-18 high-mobility medium-range

gap-filler radars from China, and 12 Denel Cheetah C/D multirole fighters from South Africa.

However, all of these projects reported significant implementation problems: four of the seven Druv

helicopters had crashed by February, while the Chinese deal was cancelled after years of delays and an

eventual failure to integrate with Ecuador's C2 network.

Ecuador has since returned to its more traditional suppliers, including the Netherlands, Spain, and the

United States. In 2014 the Ecuadorian Air Force (FAE) took delivery of three Airbus Military C295M medium

transports under a USD92 million deal that enabled the retirement of its ageing HS748 aircraft. Spanish

company Indra Sistemas was selected in October 2014 to provide four new 3-D long-range radars, with

deliveries expected to begin in mid-2016.


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Paraguay: too many needs, too little funding

The Paraguayan armed forces have long required a major modernisation programme and have

unsuccessfully sought supplementary budgets of between USD200 million and USD568 million over recent

years.

The armed forces' priority is for new turbo-prop combat aircraft, for which the Embraer EMB-314 Super

Tucano was thought to be the favourite until April 2014. In May 2014 KAI offered six KA-1 light attack

aircraft and six KT-1 trainers at a price point below that of the Super Tucanos.

Paraguay's other requirements are for new medium transport aircraft in the Airbus Military C295M class

and 3-D long-range radars, although as of February there is no indication that funding has been allocated.

Uruguay goes second-hand shopping

As a military that punches well above its weight, particularly in international peacekeeping deployments,

the Uruguayan armed forces have multiple stated requirements for conventional systems.

So far, Uruguay has been able to fund the procurement of some opportunity buys in the second-hand

market, including 180 81 mm and 120 mm surplus Spanish Army mortars, six former Ecuadorian Air Force

Cessna A-37B Dragonfly CAS aircraft, and two ex-Portuguese Airbus Military C212-300 Aviocar transport

aircraft. The A-37Bs were obtained free of charge through a binational co-operation programme, while the

Portuguese Aviocars were negotiated at a reduced EUR1.6 million (USD1.8 million) price tag.

The army has obtained some new equipment, with five Aselsan Advanced Capability Radar (ACAR) ground

surveillance radars and a single Elta 2106 NG tactical air surveillance radar delivered in 2014.


Venezuela: ready for the wrong war?

With a staunch rhetoric focusing on a US-backed foreign invasion, Venezuela undertook a major overhaul

of its conventional capabilities from 2005 to 2014. This revamp included new T-72S1 MBTs, 2S19M-1 Msta-

S self-propelled howitzers, BM-21 Grad and 9A52-2 Smerch multiple rocket launchers, and S-125 Pechora-

2M, Buk-M2E and S-300VM air-defence missile systems.

However, the announced procurement of further conventional systems including 100 additional MBTs,

Sukhoi Su-35 'Super Flankers', 'Kilo'- and Amur-class submarines and BAL-E coastal defence missile systems

has lapsed as attention re-focuses on internal security and mobility requirements. The Venezuelan National

Guard has meanwhile taken delivery of some 141 4x4 Norinco armoured vehicles, 20 of which are

configured for riot control.

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Venezuela's fourth and final Guaicamacuto-class patrol vessel, Comandante Eterno Hugo Chávez, was launched on 15 July in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela. (Navantia)

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South american modernisation efforts

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