South Africa Political Economy Maj Tara Hasbrouck.

South Africa

Political Economy

Maj Tara Hasbrouck

Dawie RoodtWhile hospitalized he released a 3-step plan:

Encouraged compatriots to “forget about government projects like the Industrial Policy Action Plan (IPAP) and the National Development Plan (NDP).”

Mandate that all state employees reapply for their positions

Establish a world-class skills-development program to keep pace with the growing economy

Less about creating jobs and more about removing barriers

CrisisPop is 53M; GDP is xxx USD

For 2015 projected growth at 2%; first quarter results on 1.3% GDP v. 4.1% in 4th qtr

Debt: $114B, deficit is xxx% GDP

Unemployment up to 34,9% or 8,4 million without jobs10M youth2/3 not educatedMajority blacks - 36% unemployed

Attracted 10B in FDI in 2013/14Has organizations Sasol, Bidvest, Nando, Shoprite, and Standard Bank

Johannesburg Stock Exchange – top 20

In 2014, international tourists numbered from largest to least as follows: German, Chinese, French, Australian, Indian, and ????

Tourism – hampered by new visa regulationsEmploys 1.5M South Africans and contributes to 9% country’s GDPCH tourists decreased by 38% first quarter

Exports

Agriculture – wool, maize, sugar, fruit, etcless than 3% GDP

50% from mining, 1/2M jobs31% GDPWorld leader in xxx and xxx, & some gold, diamonds,

and coal

Tremendous difficulty in tourism and mining sectors due to government regulation

ANC won 62% of vote in country’s 5th national elections; Jacob Zuma in power since ’09

Tripartite alliance between the ANC, the South African Communist Party (SACP) and the Congress of South Africa Trade Unions (COSATU)

Labour Relations Act (LRA) gave unions disproportionate power relative to employers

Load shedding

Power comes via the state – ESKOMNecessity to have load-curtailment agreementsTalk of Dept and Trade Industry purchasing

industrial-sized generators for manufacturing enterprises

Nuclear power –5%

2015 Indo-African trade projected at US $100BSA is one of India’s largest investors at $112MBilateral trade jump from $5,3 B in 2001 to $63

B in 2011

In SA, Indian textile workers earn R600/month while Chinese manufacturing workers earn R4000/month.

Trying to be a Developmental State - Country’s strong planning capacity not matched with policy implementation

Low long-term growth ratesCorruptionInadequate human capital basePersistent social inequalitiesHigh structural unemployment needs