South Africa and Africa Presented by: Dawie Roodt 17 April 2007.

South Africa and Africa

Presented by:Dawie Roodt17 April 2007

2006 2007

M3 (end of year) 23.1% 14.7%

PSCE (adj. end of year) 27.6% 17.0%

CPIX (average) 4.6% 5.1%

Prime (full year) 12.5% 12.5%

Current Account: GDP -6.4% -5.7%

R/$ (end of year) 7.04 7.15

GDP (full year) 5.0% 5.3%

Economic Overview

Percentage of World GDP ‘04

2%

35%

2%2%

4%4%5%

7%

11%

1%

27%

Africa Rest of the World Brazil IndiaUK China France GermanyJapan Russia USA

Source: UNAIDS

4% of African area

23% of African GDP

22% of African Exports

20% of African Imports

GDP

Africa, South Africa, World GDP per Capita

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

$

Source: UN

Countries Compared to Provinces

Country and Province GDP 2004 ($ Bn)

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220

South AfricaEgypt

AlgeriaNigeria

GautengMorocco

KwaZulu-NatalWestern Cape

TunisiaAngolaSudan

Libyan ArabEastern CapeCote d'Ivoire

CameroonMpumalanga

KenyaLimpopo

North-WestFreestateTanzania

GhanaBotswana

EthiopiaUgandaSenegal

GabonDRC

MozambiqueMauritius

NamibiaZambia

Northern CapeMali

ZimbabweBurkina Faso

CongoBenin

MadagascarChad

GuineaSmallest 20

Source: UN

Africa Average Annual GDP Growth, 1996 - 2005

Average Annual GDP Growth, 1996 - 2005

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45Countries

%

Equatorial Guinea

Zimbabwe

Average: 4.2

Source: World Bank, Africa Development Indicators, 2006

South Africa

Mozambique

Congo

Median: 3.6

Angola

Oil-exporters

Africa’s Divergent Growth Paths

Average Annual GDP Growth, 1996-2005, % of Population

20%16%

35% 29%

Little or no growth Slow growth Sustained growth Oil-exporting

Ave: 5.5

Ave: 3.4 Ave: 1.3

Ave: 7.4

Namibia (4.0)

Malawi (3.2)

South Africa (3.1)

Source: World Bank, Africa Development Indicators, 2006

Kenya (2.8)

DRC (0.0)

Zimbabwe (-2.4)

Mozambique (8.4)

Botswana (5.7)

Mauritius (4.9)

Eq. Guinea (20.9)

Angola (7.9)

Nigeria (4.0)

2007:Economic Freedom Index

Economic Freedom Per Category

70.8

68.8

79.8

79.3

78.8

50.0

60.0

50.0

45.0

58.5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Business Freedom

Trade Freedom

Fiscal Freedom

Fdm fm Government

Monetary Freedom

Investment Freedom

Financial Freedom

Property Rights

Fdm fm Corruption

Labor Freedom

South Africa World Sub-Sahara Africa

Source: The Heritage Foundation

Economic Freedom Index, 2007

Economic Freedom Index, 2007

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160Countries

Value

South Africa (’06)Hong Kong

Cuba

Average: 61

Median: 59

Source: The Heritage Foundation

South Africa (’07)

South Africa (’95)

Libya

Mauritius

Africa max and min

Economic Freedom Index- Africa, 2007

Africa Economic Freedom Index, 2007

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45Countries

Value

Mauritius

Libya

Average: 54

Source: The Heritage Foundation

South Africa

Botswana

Zimbabwe

Socio-Economic Development

Close-up on South Africa

Category 2004 2006

Total population (000) 46.6mil 47.4mil

Annual population growth rate (%) 1.1% -0.4% ?

Population 0-14 years(%) 33% 32%

Rural population (%) 41

Total fertility rate (births per woman) 2.8 2.7

Infant mortality rate (1,000) 53 60

Life expectancy at birth (years) 46 42

HIV rate (%) in adults (15-49 years) 15.6 20.0%

Poverty (% of pop. on less than $2 a day) 34

GDP per capita (PPP) US$ 11 192 12 760

GDP growth rate (%) 4.5% 5.0%

Children of primary school-age who are out-of-school (%) 7

Source: Unesco and World Bank Development Indicators

Human Poverty Index (HPI): Developing Countries (HPI-1),2004

Human Poverty Index, Developing Countries (High value = High Poverty)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0 20 40 60 80 100Countries

Value

South Africa 2004

Cuba

Mali

Average: 30

Median: 27

Source: Human Development Report, 2006 (undp.org)

South Africa(1998)

Male Life Expectancy at Birth, 2004

Male Life Expectancy at Birth, 2004

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

0 10 20 30 40 50Countries

Age

Sierra Leone

Average: 51

Source: Africa Development Indicators, World Bank, 2006

South Africa

Swaziland

Tunisia

Sustained Access to Improved Sanitation, latest 2000-04

Africa countries Access to Sanitation, 2004

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50Countries

% Pop

Chad

Average: 40

Source: Africa Development Indicators, World Bank, 2006

South Africa

Ethiopia

Mauritius

AIDS

People infected with Aids

20%

68%3%1%

4%

4%

Asia Africa Eastern Europe & Central Asia Caribbean Latin America High Income Countries

Source: UNAIDS

Eddjucation

Adult Literacy Rate (2005)

Adult Literacy Rate

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 20 40 60 80 100Countries

% o

f P

op

ula

tio

n

Source: Human Development Report, 2006 (undp.org)

South Africa: 82.2

Mali

Estonia

Average: 79.5

Median: 87.4

South Africa (1991): 82.1

Pupils-Teacher Ratio in Primary Education (Newest data available)

Pupils-Teacher Ratio

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Countries

Ave

rag

e n

um

ber

of

pu

pils

Source: UNESCO

South Africa 2004

Central African Republic

Libya

Average: 26.7

Median: 23.0

South Africa (2006)

The Zim disaster

Development Data & Statistics

2004 World South Africa Zimbabwe

GDP (current US$, bn) 41 365.8 214.7 4.7

GNI per capita (current US$) 6 338.0 3 670.0 620.0

Life expectancy (years) 67.3 44.6 37.2

Population, total (millions) 6 363.2 45.5 12.9

Population growth (annual %) 1.2 -0.7 0.6

Surface area (000, sq km) 133 940.9 1 219.1 390.8

Source: World Bank

Zimbabwe: GDP

Zimbabwe: GDP

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

%

Source: IMF

Zimbabwe: GDP

Zimbabwe GDP per capita, Constant Prices

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Zim $, '000

Source: IMF

Zimbabwe: Inflation

Zimbabwe: Inflation

0500

10001500200025003000350040004500

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

%

Source: IMF and IMF forecasts

Zimbabwe GDP, Current Prices, Zim$

2000

Zim$361.4 bn2005

Zim$75,421.1 bn

+20,798.0%

Zimbabwe GDP, Current Prices, US$

2000

$8.1bn

2005

$4.5bnSource: IMF

-44.0%

Mistakes made in Africa Private Property Rights Regulated Prices Idolise Leaders Marketing Boards Nepotism Incompetence Corruption Poor Fiscal Discipline Poor Monetary Policy Unrealistic Projects

?

?

?

?

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Asset Allocation

Asset Allocation Reason

Equities Demand/Rand/International

Bonds Inflation/Supply/Interest Rates

Cash Unchanged Short Rates

Property Property Cycle

– Heavy Overweight

– Overweight

– Neutral

– Underweight

– Heavy Underweight

Local Equities, 2006Economic Sector MC EAA JSE Sector

Mining and Quarrying 32% 33% Mining, Platinum, Gold, Coal

Finance, prop and bus. serv 30% 25%Banks, Insurance, Life Ass, Media & Pht, IT, Property, Support Serv

Manufacturing 12% 18%Auto, Basic Ind, Beverages, Chem, Elect, IT Hard, Pharm & Bio, Steel & Other

Personal Service 6% 5%Cyc Serv, Health, Leisure Ent, Non-cyc Serv, Person Care

Transport, storage and comm. 6% 6% Telecomm, Transport

Trade, hotels and restaurants 6% 4%Cyc Cons, Food & Drug, Gen Retail, House Goods, Non-cyc Cons

Electricity, gas and water 4% 3% Oil & Gas

Agri, Forestry and Fishing 3% 1% Food Prod

Construction 2% 5% Const & Build

100% 100%

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