Source and Destination: Transfer Success at a Multi-campus University System AIR 2004 Forum

1

Source and Destination:Transfer Success at a

Multi-campus University SystemAIR 2004 Forum

The Information Revolution: Bridging the Past to the FutureMay 31, 2004 – 4:10 PM

Salon K, Boston Marriott Copley PlaceBoston, Massachusetts

Mardy Eimers, Director of Institutional Research & Planning

Kathy Schmidtke, Graduate Student, Institutional Research & Planning

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Importance of Transfers

• Approximately 42% of all new students are transfer students.

• At the urban institutions, transfer students represent 64% and 78% of all new students.

• Transfers are a significant part of enrollment management efforts.

• Admission requirements for transfer students differ from those of first-time entering students.

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University of Missouri System

• Large residential campus• Engineering residential campus• Two urban campuses• Total 46,000 undergraduates

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Literature Review

• Transfer Shock (Hill, 1965)• Transfer and “Native” Students

(Arnold, 2001; Glass & Harrington, 2002; Koker & Hendel, 2003; and Saupe & Long, 1996)

• Transfer in the Urban setting (Bach, Banks, Kinnick, Ricks, Stoering, & Walleri, 1999)

• Role of Associate’s Degree (Saupe & Long, 1996; Townsend & Barnes, 2001)

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Source of Transfer

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%

2-year 4-year UM

2-year 43% 4-year 37% UM 7%

Per

cent

of U

M T

rans

fer

Stu

dent

s

6

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Residential Urban

Residential (UMC & UMR) 36% Urban (UMKC & UMSL) 64%

Destination of TransferP

erce

nt o

f UM

Tra

nsfe

r S

tude

nts

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Transfer Student Population

• 10% Underrepresented minorities• 12% Had an A.A. Or A.S. Degree• Mean Transfer GPA – 2.9• Mean Transfer Hours – 58• Graduation Data:

– Six-year Graduation Rate – 53%– Mean Years to Graduation – 2.9– Of those graduating, 64% graduated

within 3 yrs.

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Original Study - Transfer v. Native

(Lehmkuhle, Eimers, and Mullen, 2003)

Transfer24 hours

2.0 GPA

Native

Third semester

Transfer Hours

Transfer GPAUM System

6-year Graduation Rate

1991 – 1997 Fall Cohorts

9

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Native After 3rd Term Transfer

Native After 3rd Term 79% Transfer 53%

Gra

du

ati

on

Rate

Graduation Rates – Native v. Transfer

Fall 1996 FT/FT DS Freshmen 6-year Grad. Rate

59%

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Original Study - Research Questions

1. Are transfer students more likely to graduate than native students, when controlling for ability and credit hours?

2. What characteristics help explain a transfer student’s likelihood of graduating?

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Original Study Findings

• Transfer GPA and Transfer Hours - strong positive indicators of a student’s likelihood to graduate

• Additionally, being an internal UM transfer and/or being female – positive indicators

• Negative indicators - having a post-secondary degree, transferring to an urban institution, and/or being an underrepresented minority.

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New Study – Phase I

SOURCE - MO

2-year

4-year

UM System

Transfer Hours

Transfer GPAUM System

DESTINATION


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Research Questions – Phase I

3. Are transfer students more likely to graduate if they enter from a 2-year, 4-year, or UM System institution, when controlling for ability and credit hours?

4. What characteristics help explain a transfer student’s likelihood of graduating, based on whether they transfer from a 2-year, 4-year, or UM System institution?

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46%

48%

50%

52%

54%

56%

58%

60%

2-year 4-year UM Total

2-year 51% 4-year 52% UM System 59% Total 52%

UM Transfer Students

Gra

du

ati

on

Rate

Graduation Rates by Source Institution

15

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

24-35 36-47 48-59 Over 60

2-year 4-year UM

Student GPA Less Than 2.50%

Gra

du

ati

ng

Credit Hours

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

24-35 36-47 48-59 Over 60

2-year 4-year UM

Student GPA 3.5 or more

% G

rad

uati

ng

Credit Hours

16

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

<2.5 2.5-2.99 3.00-3.49 3.50 ormore

2-year 4-year UM

Credit Hours: 24-35%

Gra

du

ati

ng

GPA

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

<2.5 2.5-2.99 3.00-3.49 3.50 ormore

2-year 4-year UM

Credit Hours: Over 60

% G

rad

uati

ng

GPA

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Control

Independent Variables

Male

Other Ethnicity

Female

Asian or Minority (African American, Hispanic, Native American)

2 year or UM

Associate’s of Arts, Associate’s of Science or Other Associates(2-year only)

Residential

GPA Category2.5-2.9 3.0-3.49 3.5-4.0

Transfer Hour Category36-47 48-59 60+

Age

4 year

No Assoc. Deg

Urban

POINT ESTIMATE = 1

As Likely to Graduate as “Control”

Dependent Variable

Graduate

Don’t Graduate

Logistic Regression

24-35

2.0-2.49

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Logistic Regression Findings – 4-year

Independent Variable Point Estimate

Effect

Transfer GPA 1.484 Positive

Transfer Hours 1.165 Positive

Transfer to Residential 1.683 Positive

Age 0.955 Negative

Minority 0.761 Negative

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Logistic Regression Findings – 2-year


Effect



Female 1.158 Positive

Associate’s of Arts Deg 1.270 Positive


Age 0.964 Negative

Other Associate’s Deg 0.707 Negative


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Logistic Regression Findings – UM


Effect




Age 0.929 Negative

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New Study – Phase II

SOURCE - MO

Transfer Hours

Transfer GPA

Urban

Residential

UM

System

DESTINATION


Missouri

Institutions

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Research Questions – Phase II

5. Are transfer students more likely to graduate if they transfer to an urban or residential campus, when controlling for ability and credit hours?

6. What characteristics help explain a transfer student’s likelihood of graduating, based on whether the student transferred to an urban or residential campus?

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Urban Residential

Gra

du

ati

on

Rate

Graduation Rates of MO Transfer Studentsby Destination Institution

48% 59%

All UM Transfers 52%

24

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

24-35 36-47 48-59 Over 60

Urban Residential

Student GPA Less Than 2.50%

Gra

du

ati

ng

Credit Hours

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

24-35 36-47 48-59 Over 60

Urban Residential

Student GPA 3.5 or more

% G

rad

uati

ng

Credit Hours

25

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

<2.5 2.5-2.99 3.00-3.49 3.50 ormore

Urban Residential

Credit Hours: 24-35%

Gra

du

ati

ng

GPA

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

<2.5 2.5-2.99 3.00-3.49 3.50 ormore

Urban Residential

Credit Hours: Over 60

% G

rad

uati

ng

GPA

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Logistic Regression Findings – Urban


Effect



Source UM 1.619 Positive


Source Two-year 1.138 Positive

Age 0.965 Negative


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Logistic Regression Findings – Residential


Effect



Source UM 1.460 Positive

Asian 1.610 Positive

Age 0.947 Negative

Female 0.839 Negative


Source Two-year 0.679 Negative

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

A.A. A.S. Other None

A.A. 59% A.S. 52%Other Assoc. 40% No Assoc. Deg. 50%

2-year Transfer Students

Gra

du

ati

on

Rate

Graduation Rates by Type of Associate’s

Graduation Rate for all 2-yr 52%

N = 2,361 N = 6,180N = 527N = 176

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Exploratory Phase

SOURCE - MO

2-year

4-year

UM System

Transfer Hours

Transfer GPA

Urban

Residential

UM

System

DESTINATION


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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Urban Residential

From 2-year From 4-year From UM System Total

Gra

du

ati

on

Rate

Graduation Rates by Destination Institution

61% 31% 43% 48%

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Logistic Regression Findings – 4-year to urban


Effect




Age 0.960 Negative


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Logistic Regression Findings –2-year to Urban


Effect



Associate’s of Arts Deg. 1.436 Positive


Age 0.967 Negative

Other Associate’s Deg. 0.760 Negative


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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%



2-year Transfer Students to an Urban

Gra

du

ati

on

Rate


Graduation Rate for all 2-yr Urban 50%

N = 1,865 N = 3,688N = 468N = 135

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Logistic Regression - 4-year to Residential


Effect



Age 0.950 Negative


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Logistic Regression – 2-year to Residential


Effect

Asian 2.063 Positive



Age 0.947 Negative

Female 0.784 Negative

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%



2-year Transfer Students to a Residential

Gra

du

ati

on

Rate


Graduation Rate of all 2-yr Residential 56%

N = 496 N = 2,492N = 59N = 41

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Limitations

•University of Missouri data

•Native student attrition•Strength of logistic

model•Cell Size after

aggregations

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Findings

• Regardless of whether a student enters from a 2-year or 4-year institution, Transfer GPA and Transfer Hours continue to be strong positive indicators of graduation.

• When controlling for GPA and hours, 4-year transfers graduate at a higher rate than 2-year transfers.

• When controlling for GPA and hours, students who transfer to a residential institution graduate at a higher rate than students who transfer to an urban institution.

• In an urban institution, 2-year transfers are more successful than 4-year transfers, while in a residential institution, 4-year transfers are more successful.

• For 2-year transfers, obtaining the Associate’s of Arts degree is a positive indicator of graduation at an urban institution.

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Discussion & Future Research Focus

• Transfer assimilation and articulation (AA, 42-hr)

• Transfer admission standards• Difference in success of 2-year and 4-year

students transferring to urban and residential campuses.

• Shared responsibility of all institutions and disciplines

• Ideas or modifications for future studies

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Additional Information

Mardy Eimers: [email protected]

Office of Institutional Research & Planning

721 Lewis HallUniversity of Missouri SystemUniversity of Missouri-ColumbiaColumbia, Missouri 65211(573) 882-2778

Kathy Schmidtke: [email protected]

Office of Institutional Research & Planning712 Lewis HallUniversity of Missouri SystemUniversity of Missouri-ColumbiaColumbia, Missouri 65211(573) 884-2241

Source and Destination: Transfer Success at a Multi-campus University System AIR 2004 Forum

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