1 / 38 Österreichische Nationalbank, Kassensaal Vienna, March 18, 2013 Prof. Dr. Aykut Kibritçioğlu Section for Economic Development and International Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Political Sciences, Ankara University, Turkey http://kibritcioglu.com/iktisat/ & [email protected]Some Observations on Trade Relations between Austria and Turkey Panel Discussion chaired by Governor Ewald Nowotny (OeNB) on: “Turkish-Austrian Economic Relations in a European and International Context”. Panelists: Murat Çetinkaya (CBRT), Ayşe Sezgin (MFA), Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer (VIG), Aykut Kibritçioğlu (AU).
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Some Observations on Trade Relations between Austria and Turkey
The Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) hosted a joint international conference in cooperation with the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) in Vienna on March 18, 2013. The conference took place from 2:30 p.m. to 5:30 p.m. at the Kassensaal of the OeNB, Otto-Wagner-Platz 3, 1090 Vienna. The topic of this conference was "Turkish-Austrian economic relations in a European and international context". The panel was chaired by Dr. Ewald Nowotny. The panelists were: Murat Çetinkaya (CBRT), Amb. Ayşe Sezgin (MFA), Dr. Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer (VIG) and Prof. Dr. Aykut Kibritçioğl. For more information on the panel, you may visit: http://kibritcioglu.com/iktisat/oenb-20130318.html
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Österreichische Nationalbank, KassensaalVienna, March 18, 2013
Prof. Dr. Aykut KibritçioğluSection for Economic Development and International Economics,
Department of Economics, Faculty of Political Sciences,Ankara University, Turkey
Some Observations on Trade Relations between Austria and Turkey
Panel Discussion chaired by Governor Ewald Nowotny (OeNB) on: “Turkish-Austrian Economic Relations in a European and International Context”. Panelists: Murat Çetinkaya (CBRT), Ayşe Sezgin (MFA), Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer (VIG), Aykut Kibritçioğlu (AU).
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-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
Annual Inflation Rate (2010-12, HICP,%)
External balance of goods andservices / GDP (2010-12, %)
Energy intensity of the economy(2010, kgoe per 10 euro)
Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions(2009-10, in CO2 equivalent, 1990 =
2.0)
Annual Population Growth (2009-11,%)
Real GDP Growth (2010-12, %)
Unemployment Rate (2012.11, %)
TurkeyAustria
Turkey and Austria:Two Different Economies with Weak Linkages?
Source: Eurostat, http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu, March 5, 2013
A Comparison according to Selected Seven Indicators
3 / 38
Movement of Goods, Services & Factors among Two Economies: Direct & Indirect Linkages
TURKEY AUSTRIA
ThirdCountries
Trade in GoodsTrade in ServicesLabor MovementsCapital MovementsTechnology Transfer
Trade in GoodsTrade in ServicesLabor Movements
Capital MovementsTechnology Transfer
Trade in GoodsTrade in ServicesLabor Movements
Capital MovementsTechnology Transfer
Joint economic activities in third countries?
Trade in GoodsTrade in ServicesLabor Movements
Capital MovementsTechnology Transfer
Trade in GoodsTrade in ServicesLabor MovementsCapital MovementsTechnology Transfer
OECD-WTO: TiVA ?
Quick Answer?
4 / 38
Turkey: open to trade, but low “per capita trade”Austria: member of the “trade nations club”?
Source: WTO Statistics Database (SDB), http://stat.wto.org, September 2012
Merchandise Trade by Commodity(mln. USD at current prices, 1980 & 2011)
Indicator Flow Reporter Partner 1980 2011Share in World ... (%, 1980)
Share in World ... (%, 2011)
Increase (%, from 1980 to
2011)
Agricultural products Exports Austria World 2100 17356 0.7 1.0 726Agricultural products Exports Turkey World 1881 14949 0.6 0.9 695Agricultural products Exports World World 298800 1659524 100.0 100.0 455Agricultural products Imports Austria World 2517 17797 0.8 1.0 607Agricultural products Imports Turkey World 388 17574 0.1 1.0 4429Agricultural products Imports World World 312217 1745208 100.0 100.0 459
Manufactures Exports Austria World 14531 145072 1.3 1.3 898Manufactures Exports Turkey World 782 104210 0.1 0.9 13226Manufactures Exports World World 1092378 11510949 100.0 100.0 954Manufactures Imports Austria World 16849 136421 1.5 1.1 710Manufactures Imports Turkey World 3265 142034 0.3 1.2 4250Manufactures Imports World World 1110747 11927185 100.0 100.0 974
Source: WTO Statistics Database (SDB), http://stat.wto.org, September 2012
Both Turkey and Austria increased their exports & imports to/from the rest of the world between 1980 and 2011, in terms of trade values.
Austrian shares in world exports & imports of agricultural products increased, while its share in imports of manufacturing goods decreased slightly.
Turkey’s shares in global exports & imports of both, agricultural and manufacturing commodities increased significantly.
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Turkey & Austria within the Network ofGlobal Trade in Goods (%, World = 100, 1980 & 2011)
Source: IMF eLibrary, Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) Database, http://elibrary-data.imf.org
Both countries’ shares in global trade in goods are, and were, limited, but Turkey increased her world share remarkably within the last three decades.
Turkey Austria Rest of the World World (Total)
Turkey 0.00 0.15 0.15
Austria 0.01 0.91 0.91
Rest of the World 0.14 0.89 97.91 98.94
World (Total) 0.15 0.89 98.96 100.00
1980 (W=>W: 100) Importing Countries
Ex
po
rtin
g
Co
un
trie
s
Turkey Austria Rest of the World World (Total)
Turkey 0.01 0.75 0.76
Austria 0.01 0.95 0.96
Rest of the World 1.16 1.00 96.11 98.28
World (Total) 1.17 1.01 97.82 100.00
2011 (W=>W: 100) Importing Countries
Exp
ort
ing
C
ou
ntr
ies
7 / 38Source: IMF eLibrary, Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) Database, http://elibrary-data.imf.org
Turkey & Austria within the Network ofGlobal Trade in Goods (TR X = 1.0, 1980 & 2011)
Turkey Austria Rest of the World World (Total)
Turkey 1.0 53 54
Austria 1.8 323 325
Rest of the World 50 316 34902 35269
World (Total) 52 317 35278 35648
Ex
po
rtin
g
Co
un
trie
s
1980 (TR=>AU: 1.0) Importing Countries
Turkey Austria Rest of the World World (Total)
Turkey 1.0 127 128
Austria 1.7 161 163
Rest of the World 197 169 16277 16644
World (Total) 199 170 16566 16935
2011 (TR=>AU: 1.0) Importing Countries
Exp
ort
ing
C
ou
ntr
ies
However, the relative global importance of trade between Turkey and Austria has not increased significantly.
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Country Composition of Austrian Exports(%, 1960-2011)
Source: IMF eLibrary, Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) Database, http://elibrary-data.imf.org
Turkey is not a major target country for Austrian exporters.
Their destination is mainly (old, and now also new) EU countries.
0
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Turkey
Rest of the World
Middle East & North Africa
Russian Federation
China
Switzerland
USA
EU12 (new members)
EU13 (old members)
Germany
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Turkey
Rest of the World
Middle East & North Africa
Russian Federation
China
Switzerland
USA
EU12 (new members)
EU13 (old members)
Germany
(Reporter: Austria, Exports, %)
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Country Composition of Austrian Imports(%, 1960-2011)
Source: IMF eLibrary, Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) Database, http://elibrary-data.imf.org
Turkey is not a major source country for imported goods to Austria.Germany & EU13 are the main exporters to Austria. After 1994, the new
EU countries are gaining on importance in Austrian imports.
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Turkey
Rest of the World
Middle East & North Africa
Russian Federation
China
Switzerland
USA
EU12 (new members)
EU13 (old members)
Germany
0%
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Turkey
Rest of the World
Middle East & North Africa
Russian Federation
China
Switzerland
USA
EU12 (new members)
EU13 (old members)
Germany
(Reporter: Austria, Imports, %)
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Country Composition of Turkish Exports(%, 1960-2011)
Source: IMF eLibrary, Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) Database, http://elibrary-data.imf.org
Austria is not a major target country for Turkish exporters.
Their destination is mainly EU (old, and now new) countries.
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Austria
Rest of the World
Middle East & North Africa
Russian Federation
China
Switzerland
USA
EU12 (new members)
EU13 (old members)
Germany
0%
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Austria
Rest of the World
Middle East & North Africa
Russian Federation
China
Switzerland
USA
EU12 (new members)
EU13 (old members)
Germany
(Reporter: Turkey, Exports, %)
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2011
1987 19821950
1957
Country Shares inTurkish Exports(1948-2011)
1000
100
0100
5050
50
Middle East& North
Africa
Restof theWorld
0
EU27 Countries
(Reporter: Turkey)
Source: IMF eLibrary, Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) Database, http://elibrary-data.imf.org
Changes in Country Composition ofTurkish Exports (%, 1948-2011)
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Country Composition of Turkish Imports(%, 1960-2011)
Source: IMF eLibrary, Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) Database, http://elibrary-data.imf.org
Austria is not a major source country for Turkey’s imported goods from abroad. Again, the EU27 ist the …
Commodity Composition of Turkish Exports & Imports to / from the World (%, 1989-2011)
Turkey mainly exports “manufactured goods” and “machinery & transport equipment” to the world, while it imports mainly “machinery & transport equipment” from the world.
Source: OECD.Stat, Dataset: “International Trade by Commodity Statistics” (SITC Rev. n 3), http://stats.oecd.org
“Trade Data Discrepancy” betweenTurkey & Austria (%, 1948-2011)
Source: IMF eLibrary, Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) Database, http://elibrary-data.imf.org
There are huge differences between the reported Turkish exports and Austrian imports data for trade between two countries: 1961-1980, 1981-1988 & 1995-2011.
It cannot simply be explained by the “FOB/CIF factor”. Reporting / recording errors or lags? Re-exports? Needs to be investigated in detail…
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Turkey's Exports to Austria / Austria's Imports from TurkeyTurkey's Imports from Austria / Austria's Exports to TurkeyExports = Imports
Turkey's Exports to Austria / Austria's Imports from TurkeyTurkey's Imports from Austria / Austria's Exports to TurkeyExports = Imports
23 / 38
Comparison & Development of National Trade Shares according to Turkish & Austrian Trade Data (%, 1948-2011)
Source: IMF eLibrary, Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) Database, http://elibrary-data.imf.org
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
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4.5
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Share of Turkey's Exports to Austria in Turkey's Total Goods Exports to the World
Share of Turkey's Imports from Austria in Turkey's Total Goods Imports from the World
Share of Austria's Exports to Turkey in Austria's Total Goods Exports to the World
Share of Austria's Imports form Turkey in Austria's Total Goods Imports from the World
24 / 38
Exports (FOB) to Imports (CIF) Ratio for Bilateral Trade between Turkey and Austria
(%, 1948-2011)
Source: IMF eLibrary, Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) Database, http://elibrary-data.imf.org
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Austrian Exports to Imports Ratio for Trade with Turkey
Turkish Exports to Imports Ratio for Trade with Austria
Exports = Imports
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OECD-WTO Joint Database on“Trade in Value Added” (TiVA)
[ Current Coverage: 2005, 2008, 2009; Planned Coverage: since 1995 ]
Linkages
What is Trade in Value Added?
“Trade in value-added describes a statistical approach used to estimate the source(s) of value (by country and industry) that is added in producing goods and services for export (and import). It recognises that growing global value chains mean that a country's exports increasingly rely on significant intermediate imports (and, so, value added by industries in upstream countries). For example, a motor vehicle exported by country A may require significant parts, such as engines, seats etc produced in other countries. In turn these countries will use intermediate inputs imported from other countries, such as steel, rubber etc to produce the parts exported to A. The Trade in value-added approach traces the value added by each industry and country in the production chain and allocates the value-added to these source industries and countries.”
Source & More Info: http://www.oecd.org/trade/valueaddedDatabase: http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=TIVA_OECD_WTOWTO’s Trade Data Day: 16 January 2013, http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/miwi_e/tradedataday13_e/tradedataday13_e.htm
Turkey’s Top Three Export Commodity Groupsin Trade with Austria (as annual averages, 2009-2011)
A1 B1 C D1 D2 A2 B2
Value of Austria's Imports in the
relevant CG from Turkey (mln. USD,
CIF)
CG's Share in Austria's Total
Imports (CIF) from Turkey (%)
Reporter Country Austria Austria Austria Austria Turkey Turkey Turkey Austria
Top 10 Commodity Groups
41.7 0.6 916 73.7 68.4 47.8 0.5
18.
19.
3.
HS87. VEHICLES OTHER
THAN RAILWAY OR TRAMWAY ROLLING-STOCK, AND PARTS AND...
9.8 0.1 104 8.4 15.4 11.9 0.1
0.1
3.
2.
HS84. NUCLEAR
REACTORS, BOILERS, MACHINERY AND MECHANICAL APPLIANCES; PARTS...
12.8 0.1 139 11.1 10.2 8.3
6.6 0.11.
HS61. ARTICLES OF
APPAREL AND CLOTHING ACCESSORIES, KNITTED OR CROCHETED
1.5 0.1 230 18.5 8.9
Turkey's Country
Rank as an Exporter to
Austria
The Values and Shares of Austrian Imports from Turkey
(2009-2011, Top Ten Commodity Groups, annual
averages)
Share of Turkey's HS..
Exports to Austria in
Turkey's Total Exports (FOB) to Austria (%)
General Share of Turkey's
HS.. Exports to the World in Turkey's Total Exports (FOB) to the World
(%)
Share of Turkey's HS..
Exports to Austria in
Turkey's Total Exports (FOB) to the World
(%)
Ra
nk
Turkey's Top Ten Export Commodity Groups
(CGs) according to the Harmonized System (HS
2007)
General Share of Austria's HS.. Imports
from the World in
Austria's Total Imports (CIF)
from the World (%)
Share of Austria's HS.. Imports from
Turkey in Austria's Total Imports (CIF)
from the World (%)
30 / 38
Empirical Observations on Turkish-Austrian Trade in Goods: Major Conclusions?
Turkey’s and Austria’s shares in global trade in goods have increased between 1980 and 2011.
However they are still not major players/exporters in world goods markets.
To a large extent, the trade between Turkey and Austria consists of two-way trade of “machinery and transport equipment” (SITC-7) and “manufactured goods” (SITC-6).
Moreover, Turkey and Austria are in general not unignorable trade partners for each other.
Possible reasons to think that this fact will not change easily in a short period of time:
Austria’s orientation towards new EU member countries (EU12) to make more trade since early 1990s.
Turkey’s trade orientation towards MENA region countries & Russian Federation since early 2000s. Back to Question?
31 / 38
What then may occur, or is there still room for politics/initiatives to promote bilateral trade?
Positive indirect effects of labor movements and/or immigrants on Turkish exports to Austria?
Possible effects of Austrian FDIs in Turkey on bilateral trade between Turkey and Austria:Substitution of existing trade with production in Turkey:
negative effects?
Increases in exports of intermediate goods from Austria to Turkey: positive effects?
Austria and Turkey both have free market economies, and producers and exporters in both countries are free to choose where to export.
Both countries are WTO members too.
So, should we wait and see what happens?
No
?
?
Or?
32 / 38
Economic Linkages between Austria & Turkey:International Migration (persons, 1990-2010)
Source: OECD.Stat, Dataset: “International Migration Database”, http://stats.oecd.org, March 1, 2013
Variable
Country of origin Austria Turkey Austria Turkey Austria Turkey Austria Turkey Austria Turkey
Country Turkey Austria Turkey Austria Turkey Austria Turkey Austria Turkey Austria
International Migration betweenAustria & Turkey (1980-2010)
Source: OECD.Stat, Dataset: “International Migration Database”, http://stats.oecd.org, March 1, 2013
Austria Turkey Austria Turkey Austria Turkey Austria Turkey Austria Turkey Austria Turkey Austria Turkey Austria Turkey Austria Turkey Austria Turkey Austria Turkey
Turkey Austria Turkey Austria Turkey Austria Turkey Austria Turkey Austria Turkey Austria Turkey Austria Turkey Austria Turkey Austria Turkey Austria Turkey Austria
Year i i i i i i i i i i i i1980 .. .. .. .. .. 120 000 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..