FGI FGI – – Kiev 6th Kiev 6th October October 2004 2004 French French - - German German Initiative Initiative - - Health Health Project Project SOLID CANCER AND THYROID CANCER IN SOLID CANCER AND THYROID CANCER IN CONTAMINATED TERRITORIES OF RUSSIA CONTAMINATED TERRITORIES OF RUSSIA Ivanov V.K., Maksioutov M.A. , Korelo A.M., Gorsky A.I., Bronsart von Schellendorff E.V., Birjukov A.P., Kruglova Z.G., Kochergina E.V., Vlasov O.K., Tirmarche M., Becker S.I., Valenty M.
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FGI FGI –– Kiev 6th Kiev 6th October October 2004 2004
Kochergina E.V., Vlasov O.K., Tirmarche M., Becker S.I., Valenty M.
FGI FGI –– Kiev 6th Kiev 6th October October 2004 2004
Project 3Health Effects of the Chernobyl AccidentHealth Effects of the Chernobyl Accident
SUB-PROJECT 3.1.3.S
THYROID CANCER IN ADOLESCENTS AND ADULTS IN THYROID CANCER IN ADOLESCENTS AND ADULTS IN THE MOST AFFECTED TERRITORIES OF RUSSIA THE MOST AFFECTED TERRITORIES OF RUSSIA
AFTER THE CHERNOBYL ACCIDENTAFTER THE CHERNOBYL ACCIDENT
AIMS OF AIMS OF THETHE SUBPROJECTSUBPROJECT
• reconstruction of thyroid cancer incidence rates in adolescents and adults in the Bryansk and Orel oblasts of Russia; study period: 1982-1999;
• support of registration activities for thyroid cancer in the affected regions and evaluation of the validity of collected data;
• descriptive analysis of the collected data (geographical comparisons, time trend analysis, characteristics on a raion level);
• preparation of progress and final reports and scientific publication.
AVERAGE VALUES (kBq/m2) OF CONTAMINATION WITH 131I
BRYANSK oblast
OREL oblast
AVERAGE VALUES (kBq/m2) OF CONTAMINATION WITH 131I
NUMBER OF REGISTERED IN 1982-1999 THYROID CANCER CASES IN BRYANSK & OREL OBLASTS.
2 5381 0401 498TOTAL
21678951272FEMALE
371145226MALE
TOTALORELBRYANSKREGION
SEX
THYROID CANCER INCIDENCE RATES THYROID CANCER INCIDENCE RATES AS A FUNCTION OF AGE AT DIAGNOSISAS A FUNCTION OF AGE AT DIAGNOSIS
Male
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Year
Rat
epe
r100
000
15-2930-4950+
THYROID CANCER INCIDENCE RATES THYROID CANCER INCIDENCE RATES AS A FUNCTION OF AGE AT DIAGNOSISAS A FUNCTION OF AGE AT DIAGNOSIS
Female
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Year
Rat
epe
r100
000
15-2930-4950+
BRYANSK oblast
STANDARDIZED INCIDENCE RATES (PER 100 000) OF THYROID CANCER
1982-1991FEMALE
BRYANSK oblast
STANDARDIZED INCIDENCE RATES (PER 100 000) OF THYROID CANCER
1992-1999FEMALE
The levels of Iodine -131 contamination The levels of stable Iodine in soils
RAIONS INCLUDED IN ANALYSIS
COMBINED MAP
<0.010.05<0.01
<0.01<0.010.460.08<0.01<0.0192-99
0.120.650.10
<0.010.400.940.68<0.010.6782-91
FemaleMaleBothSex
Period
P-VALUES OF TESTING OF NULL HYPOTHESIS -RELATIVE RISK IS 1
RISK ESTIMATION FOR THE ADOLESCENTS AND RISK ESTIMATION FOR THE ADOLESCENTS AND ADULTS (AT THE TIME OF ACCIDENT) ADULTS (AT THE TIME OF ACCIDENT)
0.74-2.32, 5.20
-1.96-3.89,2.32
2.92-2.75, 12.79
15.91-0.26, 45.4ERR
485 610185 449146 142154 019Size of population
114553920CasesMales
-0.92-2.35, 0.76
-2.42-4.15,-0.23
3.06-0.70, 7.8
5.810.63, 12.5ERR
553 592260 147139 915153 529Size of population
655287215153CasesFemales
15-69>4530-4415-29Age at exposure
BRYANSK OBLASTSBRYANSK OBLASTS
FGI FGI –– Kiev 6th Kiev 6th October October 2004 2004
Project 3Health Effects of the Chernobyl AccidentHealth Effects of the Chernobyl Accident
SUB-PROJECT 3.1.3. SOLID CANCER INCIDENCE AMONG THE POPULATION SOLID CANCER INCIDENCE AMONG THE POPULATION OF THE MOST HIGHLY CONTAMINATED TERRITORIES OF THE MOST HIGHLY CONTAMINATED TERRITORIES
OF RUSSIAOF RUSSIA
FGI FGI –– Kiev 6th Kiev 6th October October 2004 2004
TARGETS OF THE ACTIVITIESTARGETS OF THE ACTIVITIES
• collection of data on solid cancer incidence rates in the population of the most contaminated areas of Bryansk and Kaluga oblasts of Russia; study period: 1980-1998;
• epidemiological analysis of the collected data;
• radiation risk assessment;
• preparation of progress and final reports in co-operation with Western partners.
3.988.4<200 Control
22.9222.6>400 Highly contaminated
mean effective dose, mSv
mean annual population, x103
137Cs,kBq/m2
STUDY AREASTUDY AREA
3018181761 055Control
7771 5794182 287Highly contaminated
BreastLungColonStomachCANCER CASES OVER ENTIRE STUDY PERIOD 1980CANCER CASES OVER ENTIRE STUDY PERIOD 1980--19981998
STOMACH CANCER INCIDENCE RATESSTOMACH CANCER INCIDENCE RATES
ESTIMATES OF RISK MODEL PARAMETERS ESTIMATES OF RISK MODEL PARAMETERS USING USING EPICUREEPICURE
202 541243 706319 300Person*Years
384 969465 922612 898Person*Years
0.570.44,0.73
0.68 0.54,0.851.0Relative risk
90%CI
5681156Cases
BREAST CANCER
0.780.53,1.10
0.800.68,1.121.0Relative risk
90%CI
413964Cases
COLON CANCER44.120.311.3Mean dose, mSv
27-50 mSv12-27 mSv0-12 mSv
ESTIMATES OF RISK MODEL PARAMETERS ESTIMATES OF RISK MODEL PARAMETERS USING USING EPICUREEPICURE
FGI FGI –– Kiev 6th Kiev 6th October October 2004 2004
•Growth of thyroid cancer incidence in all age groups under study (15-29, 40-49, 50+ years old) regardless of sex has been found.
•Statistical analysis of relationship between thyroid cancer incidence and the level of soil contamination with 131I as well as the content of stable iodine in soil showed that effects of iodine deficiency and radiocontamination were statistically significant in the period from 1992 to 1999.
•The radiation risk of thyroid cancer for the adolescents and adults of the Bryansk region in the observation period 1991–1998 has not been confirmed.
CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS
FGI FGI –– Kiev 6th Kiev 6th October October 2004 2004
•No dramatic increase of solid cancer incidence over timeoccurred in the study regions either before 1986 or between1986 and 1998.
•No statistically significant excess of different types of solid cancer incidence was found relative to controls during 1991-1998 in the population of the most contaminated areas of Russia.
•Stomach, colon, lung and breast cancer cases associated with possible radiation-induced cancer in the contaminated areas of the Bryansk oblast are comparable with the value of stochastic fluctuations.