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SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK
1
European Status of PV Solar ElectricityTechnology and Market
Dr. Winfried Hoffmann
Chairman of the Management Board of SCHOTT Solar GmbHMember of the Board of the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) and the German Solar Industry Association (BSi) and member of the Scientific Board of FhG-ISE and ISFH
SCHOTT Solar GmbH • Carl-Zeiss-Strasse 4 • 63755 Alzenau, GermanyPhone: +49 (0)6023 91-1710 • Fax: +49 (0)6023 91-1729 email: [email protected] • www.schott.com/solar
Semicon Japan 2005, Tokyo December 9th, 2005
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SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK
Preamble
Europe has, like Japan, defined PV solar electricity as one
of the most important future key technologies. In order to
enable the production industry to develop competitively,
market support programs were encouraged in the EU
member states. This, however, will only be supported as
long as a strong EU based production industry in harmony
with the market size can be established. The industry from
the most important world economy regions (Japan, Europe,
US, SEA) should proactively secure their local market
developments in correspondence with the respective local
industry capacity increase.
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3
Component manufacturers (45) Systems, Consulting, R&D (30) Full Members - 44 Full Members - 17
Busi Impianti Divisione ANIT (IT), City Solar AG (DE), Conergy (DE), Econcern (NL), EDF (FR), Elettro Sun srl (IT), Engcotec (DE), Goldbeck Solar (DE), IBC Solar GmbH (DE), IB Vogt Process Engineering + (DE), IT Power Ltd. (UK), NAPS Systems OY (FIN), Philips Solar Energy (NL), Phönix Sonnenstrom AG (DE), Tenesol (FR), Trama TechnoAmbiental (ES), WIP-Renewables (DE)
Associate Members - 13
Appled Films (DE), Atersa (ES), BP Solar (ES), Crystalox Ltd. (UK), Dow Corning Europe (BE), DuPont de Nemours France SAS (FR), Elkem Solar (NO), Energy Solutions (BG), Enitecnologie (IT), ErSol Solar Energy (DE), First Solar (DE), Fronius (AU), HCT Shaping Systems (CH), Honeywell Specialty Materials (BE), Isofoton (ES), Isovolta (AUT), KACO Gerätetechnik (DE), Konarka (USA), Kyocera (DE), Meyer + Burger (CH), Multi-Contact (CH), Photovoltech (BE), Photowatt International (FR), Pillar (UKR), Podolsky Chemical (RU), PV Silicon (DE), Q-Cells (DE), Samsung Deutschland (DE), Sanyo Component Europe GmbH (HU), Scanwafer (NO), SCHOTT Solar (DE), Scheuten Solar Technology (DE), Sharp Electronics (UK), Shell Solar (NL), SMA Technologie (DE), Solar Century (UK), Solar World (DE), Solvay Solexis (BE), Sputnik Enineering (CH), Sunways (DE), TOPSIL (DK), VESUVIUS (FR), Wacker-Chemie (DE), Würth Solar (DE)
ADEME (FR), Apollon Solar (FR), Belval (CH), CRES (GR), ECN (NL), Fraunhofer Institute FhG-ISE (DE), GENEC (FR), Heliodomi (GR), IMEC (BE), Kosolco (DE), Observ’ER (FR), Segen Ltd (UK), SHV Holdings NV (NL),
Associate Members - 1 Solland Solar Energy (NL),
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GPSC: Global Solar Electricity Council
History of the initiative: - Paris – June 2004 – Proposal of the action – Industry Day, 19th
EUPVSEC- Barcelona – June 2005 – Meeting with national PV associations
from around the Globe
Mission: • Its mission consists to promote the photovoltaic energy on the global
marketplace as a sustainable and clean electricity supply for on-grid and off-grid applications.
• GPSC is a platform for supporting its members in their common interest for the industry needs and for the market development
Members: Worldwide PV players and associations
Priority Activities: • Statistics• Warranty and Guarantee issues• Boundary conditions• Standardization and certification (modules and systems, waste,
recycling and reusing)• Competitiveness with other energy sources (externalities, socio-
economic issues)• International cooperation
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SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK
Alzenau, HeadquartersFully integrated production of wafers, cells and modules
Phototronics(PST) PutzbrunnProduction of thin film modules
SCHOTT Solar GmbH
SCHOTT Solar, Inc.Billerica (MA) USAFully integrated productionof wafers, cells and modules
SCHOTT Solar Inc.Rocklin (CA) USA System integration Sales of modules andsystems
SCHOTT Solar CRValasske Mezirici, CRProduction of modules
SCHOTT Solar GroupEmployess: ca. 900 world-wideTurnover: 285 Mio. € in FY 2005
SCHOTT AG
Subsidiaries 100 %
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SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK
6
200119991960 1970 1980
AEG Telefunken
Mobil Tyco Solar Energy
1990
MBB
1994
PST
DASA 50%
NUKEM 50%
Mobil Solar Energy
1996
100% TESSAG
100% NUKEM GmbH
100% RWE Solutions AG
ASE GmbH
ASE Americas Inc.
2002
RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH
RWE SCHOTT Solar Inc.
Joint Venture RWE Solutions SCHOTT Glas
RWE Solar GmbH
ASE Americas Inc.
2005
SCHOTT Solar GmbH
1999 2001
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© RWE Space Solar Power GmbH
RWE Space Solar Power GmbH
More than 300 Satellites with RWE Solar cells
ASE SAX (1) 1991/93
AZUR (1) 1968/69 INTELSAT 4 (2)
1970/71 ESRO 4 (2) 1971/72 CTS /
HERMES (2) 1973/74
HELIOS A (3) 1973/74
GEOS 1,2 (2) 1973/74
OTS 1,2 (2) 1974/75
IUE (1) 1974/75
MAROTS (1) 1974/75
ISEE-B (1) 1974/75
EXOSAT (1) 1978/79
INTELSAT 5 (15) 1976/82
ECS (5) 1977/83
HUBBLE SPACE
TELESCOPE (1) 1978/90
IRAS (1) 1978/79
MARECS (3) 1978/82
TELECOM 1 (3) 1981/85
OSCAR (3) 1980/81
TDF (2) 1981/88
SPOT 1-4 (4) 1981/93
ARABSAT 1 (1) 1981/85
GIOTTO (1) 1981/85 IRM-
AMPTE (1) 1981/84
OLYMPUS (2) 1982/84
TV-SAT (2) 1981/85
DFS (3) 1983/88
IRS 1 (2) 1983/85
METEOSAT (4) 1983/88
INTELSAT 6 (5) 1982/85
SKYNET 4 (3) 1982/85
ERS (2) 1985/87
ROSAT (1) 1984/89
TDF (1) 1985/89
TELE-X (1) 1984/85
HIPPARCOS (1) 1984/86
EURECA (1) 1985/88
ISO (1) 1986/92
INSAT (2) 1986/89
EUTELSAT 2 (4) 1986/89
SKYNET 4 (3) 1985/90
ASPERA (3) 1986/87
INTELSAT 7 (5) 1989/92 BREMSAT (1)
1991/92
INSAT 2 (3) 1990/92 EUTELSAT 2 (1)
1990/92
HELIOS (2) 1989/93
LOCSTAR (2) 1989/92
FREJA (1) 1991/92
SOHO (1) 1991/94
ITALSAT 2 (1) 1991/93
IRS 1 (2) 1991/94
TÜRKSAT 1 (3) 1991/92
POSAT (1) 1992/93
POLAR PLATFORM (1)
1992/96
UOSAT (1) 1992/93
CLUSTER (4) 1992/95
RADARSAT (1) 1992/94
KITSAT (1) 1992/93
AMOS (1) 1993/94
IRS P2 (1) 1993
TS 1 (1) 1993/94
ARTEMIS (1) 1994/95
TÜRKSAT 2 (2) 1994/95
ARABSAT (2) 1994/95
INSAT (6) 1993/98
THAICOM 3 (1) 1995/96
ROCSAT (1) 1998
EQUATOR S (1) 1996/97
SROSS (1) 1993/94
SIRIUS (4) 1996/97
EUTELSAT W24 (4) 1996/97 IRAD (6)
1996/97
GLOBALSTAR (49) 1996/98
STENTOR (1) 1996/98
HOTBIRD 4,5 (2) 1996/97
NAHUEL 1 (1) 1996/97
SPC (8) 1995/99
ICOP (1) 1997/98
SKYNET (2) 1996/97
SBIRS (1) 1997/98
SINGASAT (1) 1997/98
METEOSAT (3) 1996/99
INTEGRAL (1) 1997/98
SINOSAT (3) 1996/97
XMM (1) 1997
EOS (2) 1997/98
ABRIXAS (1) 1997/98
ORION 2 (2) 1997/98
AGILA (2) 1994/95
HISPASAT (2) 1998/99
WORLDSTAR (4) 1997/98
ASTRA (1) 1997/98
ROSETTA (1) 2000
INSAT (1) 1999
HES (3) 1998/99
SSL-AF (1) 1998/99
ARABSAT (2) 1998/99 PROTEUS (1)
1998/99
SPOT 5 (2) 1998/99
METOP (3) 1998/99
PROBA (1) 1999/00
HELIOS 2 (2) 1999
ATV (10) 2001/08
GLOBALSTAR (10) 1999
Geolite (1) 19991)
1999
CHAMP (2) 1998
INTELSAT (1) 1997/98
INTELSAT KTV (1)
1999
ASTRA 2B (1) 1999
EUTELSAT W1R (1) 1999
Since 1964 RWE Space Solar Power has powered ... ... more than 300 satellites.
RADARSAT 2001
INMARSAT 2001/02
INTELSAT (2) 2001/02
ROCSAT 2001
RRRWWWEEE SSSpppaaaccceee SSSooolllaaarrr PPPooowwweeerrr
iiinnn SSSpppaaaccceee
W3A 2001
CAST 2001
HES 2 2002
SPC (10) 2002
Amazonas 2002
Eros B 2002
Proteus 2 2002
Goce 2002
SarLupe 2003
Herschel 2003
Planck 2003 Anik
2003
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SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK
90 bn cm²45 bn cm²today
m² semiconductor areacm² wafer areatypical characterization by
in-linebatch typeprocess technology
thin film (aSi, II-IV, dye, organic)
flat panel display (aSi)new products
III-VIII-V (GaAs)new materials
silicon wafersilicon wafermain stream technology base
PV solar electricityindustry
semiconductorindustry
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SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK
Value Added Chain for PV Systems (c-Si)
Laminate
Module
Si - Feedstock
BOS-DC/ACBOS - others
Installation (ca.)
Cell
Wafer
100 %stand-alone
Si, Wafer, Cell
Laminate
BOSModule
Installation
40 %
5 %
5 %
5 - 10 %
5 - 10 %
Parts of PV add-on cost takenby standard building materials
60 – 70 %BIPV
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SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK
Gary Homan: Hemlock Semiconductor Corporation,
2nd Solar Silicon Conference, Munich 2005
The Solar Supply Chain
SGS/ASiMI
Silicon Ingot/Wafers Cells Modules
HSC Crystalox Q-Cell
Wacker
Tokuyama
MEMC
Others
REC
SCHOTT Solar *
Sharp
Solar World
Examples of Manufacturing Companies (not all inclusive * addition SG PC)
Kyocera, BP Solar
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SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK
Investments in the Value Chain Crystalline Si-Modules
20 … 40Modules
30 … 50Cells
60 …80Wafer
60 … 120Si feed stock
Mio € per 100 MWInvesments
11
110 -170
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SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK
12
World PV Market Size and Application Segmentation
12
18 % p.a.
63 % p.a.
40 % p.a.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Mar
ket
Siz
e i
n M
Wp
Off-Grid & Consumer on-Grid
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SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK
Competitiveness between Electricity Generating Cost for PV and Utility Prices
Source: RWE Energie AG and RSS GmbH
Photovoltaics
Utility peak power
Bulk power
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
€/kWh
900 h/a: 0,60 €/kWh
1800 h/a: 0,30 €/kWh
market support programs necessary:
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SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK
Spot Market Prices in Correlation with PV Electricity Generation in Germany
Spot market price
PV power output
Source:
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SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK
15
History
Forecast
15
Price Experience Curvefor PV Solar Modules
0
1
10
1 10 100 1000 10000
GWp accumulated
$/W
p m
od
ule
pri
ce
1 GWp/a2004
3,5 GWp/a2010
35 GWp/a2020
330 GWp/a2030
experience factor15%
18%
1
10
100
1 10 100 1000 10000
MWp accumulated
$/W
p m
od
ule
pri
ce
20% price decrease by doubling cumulative volume
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SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK
Cost and price decrease of technology driven PV solar electricity
minimum - 3 % p.a.
realistic - 5 % p.a.
maximum - 7 % p.a.
Price increase of standard electricity production
minimum +1 % p.a.
realistic +3 % p.a.
maximum + 5 % p.a.
Competitiveness of PV solar electricity
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SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK
17
Future Growth of the Global PV Solar Electricity Market in GW and bn $ Turnover
inst
alle
d G
Wp
per
yea
rin
vest
emen
ts in
pro
du
ctio
n m
ach
iner
y [b
n$]
mo
du
le m
arke
t vo
lum
e [b
n$
p.a
.]
(
As
su
mp
tio
n:
$ =
€)
0,1
1
10
100
1000
2000 2010 2020 2030
1
10
100
1000
10000
+ 25 % p.a.
+ 17 % p.a.
2004
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SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK
Technology Evolution
0 5 10 15 20 250
1
2
3
0 5 10 15 20 250
1
2
3
2020+
2010+
Module Efficiency [%]
2000+c-Si
TF
a-Si-pin/pin
a-Si/µc-Si
II-VI
dye a-Si-pinII-VI
r
r
mc
mc
Cz
Cz
Page 19
Feedstock for the PV Industry Karl Hesse, Ewald Schindlbeck, April 11 2005, Page 19
CAGR Poly-Demand 2004 - 2010: + 15 %
SOLAR-GRADE SILICON:SUPPLY CAN NOT FOLLOW DEMAND.
Moduleproduction (MW) and Polysilicon Production (tons) tons MW
3,1 GW
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
1
10
100
1000
10000
Solarsilicon
Byproducts of Electronics
Demand
Moduleproduction
Moduleproduction based on 20 % growth/year
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SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK
Development of Annual Silicon Consumption
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Rel
ativ
e m
ark
et
sha
re c
-Si [
%]
Sili
co
n c
on
sum
pti
on
[g
/Wp
]
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
An
nu
al S
ilico
n c
on
su
mp
tio
n
[10
00t/
a]
S 1
Scenario 1
Scenario 2S 2
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SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK
Market data Europe including the 100000 rooftop program / feed-in tariff (EEG) in Germany
Source: IEA PVPS
21
Yea
rly
inst
alle
d M
Wp
100000 roof-top program
KfW
EEG
EEG PVamendment
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SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK
European Market Support Programs
plannedGreece
100 / 3002044 - 49Italy
I, Tlifetime28 – 51Portugal
Cap[MW]
Duration[a]
Tariff[€ct/kWh]
complicated-2015 – 30France
I, T3002522 – 40Spain
-2048 – 62 Germany
other support programs(I: Investment subsidy
T: Tax reduction)
Feed-in law
Country
22
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SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK
Würth Solar (CSi)
SCHOTT Solar (ASi)
Thin Film
Scheuten
Kyocera
Sharp
AtersaPhotovoltechTopsil
AleoSunwaysPillar…
SolarfabrikQ-CellsScan WaferMeyer & BurgerEtimex
SolarwattErsolPV CrystaloxHCTJura Plast
IsofotonUnaxis …Vesuvius
BP SolarApplied FilmsSt. Gobain
MulticontactShell SolarRoth & RauDu Pont
KACOPhotowattSchmidDow Corning
FroniusSCHOTT SolarEteraElkem
SMASolar WorldCentrothermWacker
ModuleCellWaferManufacturer(Sifs, glass, chemicals)
BOSComponent ManufacturerEquipmentBase materials
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SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK
Production and Market - Current Situation
PV Industry (2003/2004):
Production Market
365
202
10986
594
344
141176
Japan Europe USA ROW
219197
6692
278
437
83
130
Japan Europe USA ROW
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SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK
Comparison of the Future Market Development in Europe and Japan
Yearly installations mainly Germany
Cumulative installations mainlyGermany
Yearly installations Japan
Cumulative installationsJapan
Additional EU-installations e.g. EU-wide feed-in tariff program (not contained in accumulated curve)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
cum
ula
ted
in
stal
lati
on
s in
MW
p
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Yea
rly
inst
all
atio
ns
in M
Wp
must b
e revised
toward
s 5 GW
cumulativ
e
and 1300 MW
in 2010
in E
urope !
25
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SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK
0
1
Development Prediction of World-wide Electricity Capacity in Relation to PV Solar Electricity Contribution
10
100
1.000
10.000
2000 2010 2020 2030
GW
100 %
10 %
1 %
PV1
100
1,000
10
10,000
worldwide electricity generating capacity
2030202020102000Year
3.5
35
350
3,500
35,000
TW
h /
@ 3
.500
h l
oad
fac
tor
+30%p.a. +25%p.a.
26
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SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK
Contribution of PV Solar Electricity to Global Electricity Production in 2040
Source: Own estimates together with data from EREC /11/ and WBGU /12/
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
[%]
1 marine
2 geothermal
3 biomass
4 hydro
5 wind
6 solar thermal
7 PV solar
electricity
36,000 TWh
2001
… 2040
ww electricity