Solar Power in Alberta M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock May 16th, 2012 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
Solar Power in Alberta
M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock
May 16th, 2012
Department of Electrical and Computer EngineeringUniversity of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
Project Overview
• Objective: understand PV’s potential role in Albertan and Canadian environment
• Approach: iterative data collection and model construction; regular criticism from solar group
• Deliverable: flexible, realistic scenario modelling
Today• Introduction to Alberta
• Physical Properties - what’s here?
• Economic Properties - what can we do?
• Electrical Infrastructure - what’s in place?
• The Model
• Terminology
• Inputs & Outputs
• Preliminary Scenarios
AlbertaPhysical Properties
•Land use•Total area: 661,848 km2
•Agriculture area: 211,044 km2
AlbertaPhysical Properties
•Average mean daily irradiance for tilted surfaces
•AB & SK highest irradiance in Canada,
•~12.5 MJ m-2 for 60° surface•AB human energy use totally dominated by agriculture (6 TW in AB!)
AlbertaEconomic Properties
•Population density•Population: 3,645,257 (2011)
•Four commitment levels:•GDP: ??•Provincial budget: ??•Oil & gas investments: ??
• Individual household: ??
AlbertaEconomic Properties
•Population density•Population: 3,645,257 (2011)
•Four commitment levels:•GDP: 178 Billion•Provincial budget: ??•Oil & gas investments: ??
• Individual household: ??
AlbertaEconomic Properties
•Population density•Population: 3,645,257 (2011)
•Four commitment levels:•GDP: 178 Billion•Provincial budget: 41.1 Billion•Oil & gas investments: ??
• Individual household: ??
AlbertaEconomic Properties
•Population density•Population: 3,645,257 (2011)
•Four commitment levels:•GDP: 178 Billion•Provincial budget: 41.1 Billion•Oil & gas investments: 24.2 billion (2011)
• Individual household: ??
AlbertaEconomic Properties
•Population density•Population: 3,645,257 (2011)
•Four commitment levels:•GDP: 178 Billion•Provincial budget: 41.1 Billion•Oil & gas investments: 24.2 billion (2011)
• Individual household: 60 thousand?
AlbertaElectrical Infrastructure
•Transmission (blue), Generation (red)
•21,000 km
•$106 per km installed•21 billion replacement cost•13.8 GW nameplate capacity
•12.5 GW proposed
Coal: 6.2 GWNG: 5.4 GWHydro: 0.9 GW
Wind: 0.9 GWBiomass: 0.4 GWWaste : 0.06 GW
Today• Introduction to Alberta
• Physical Properties - what’s here?
• Economic Properties - what can we do?
• Electrical Infrastructure - what’s in place?
• The Model
• Terminology
• Inputs & Outputs
• Preliminary Scenarios
TerminologyInternal Rate of Return
Purchase Bond
Collect Interest
Time
TerminologyInternal Rate of Return
•Economic metric for evaluating projects
•Annualized compound return rate that sets net present value of project cash flows to zero
•Used to screen projects; if IRR is not above minimum acceptable rate of return, project does not go forward
•Shell IRRs; 10% to 30%
Time
Construction
Decommissioning
Revenue
Operations
Purchase Bond
Collect Interest
Time
TerminologyEnergy Return on Investment
•Physical metric for evaluating technologies and projects
•EROI must be > 1
ModelInputs & Outputs
Model
cm2/kWh
km2/MWh
EROI
IRR
¢/kWh
Irradiance: MWh/m2
Panel Lifetime
Panel Efficiency
kWh/Wp
$/Wp
¢/kWh Subsidy
Transmission Costs
W/m2
ScenariosFull Industrial Effort
•25 billion•Utility scale PV ~ $5/Wp•5 GWp nameplate, ~ 120 km2
(57 km2 panel area, x2 for spacing & infrastructure, no transmission lines, no transmission losses)
•Expected output 1.44 GW(12 W m-2, similar to other utility scale deployments worldwide, SEGS III-VII 10.1 W m-1, 10% of current AB)
• IRR of 12% requires 25 ¢/kWh(2012 dollars, no depreciation, operating or disposal)
SEGS III-VII
Scenarios Full Household Effort
•Taschuk rooftop•168 m2
•Heliene 72m (300 Wp, $2.93/Wp, 16%, 2 m2, 80% 25 year warranty, rooftop install, free grad student labor)
•Edmonton: 4.5 GJ m-2 a-1
•18 W m-2 average, 3 kW total•Costs 74k; 657 MWh produced•11.2 ¢/kWh; $250 per month •EROI: 3.71
Solar Power in Alberta
M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock
May 16th, 2012
Department of Electrical and Computer EngineeringUniversity of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
Solar Power in Alberta:Auxiliary Slides
M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock
March 16th, 2012
Department of Electrical and Computer EngineeringUniversity of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
AlbertaNatural Gas
•Area: 661,848 km2
•Agriculture area: 211,044 km2
• crop albedo: 0.2
• • fds
•
ScenariosFour Commitment Levels
•GDP: 178 Billion•Provincial Budget: 41.1 Billion•Oil & gas investments: 24.2 billion (2011)
• Individual household: 60 thousand?
ScenariosAlberta Total Effort
•180 Billion•~12.5 MJ m-2 for 60° surface•144 W m-2 average incident, 29 W m-2 for Si cell
• 13.8 GW nameplate by solar?• 476 km2
•≈30 billion for panels ($2/Wp)• balance of system, land, transmission lines, grid upgrades?
ScenariosSun Party wins in 2016
•~12.5 MJ m-2 for 60° surface•144 W m-2 average incident, 29 W m-2 for Si cell
• 13.8 GW nameplate by solar?• 476 km2
•≈30 billion for panels ($2/Wp)• balance of system, land, transmission lines, grid upgrades?
Solar Power in Alberta:Human Scale
M.T. Taschuk, D. Rebstock
March 16th, 2012
Department of Electrical and Computer EngineeringUniversity of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
Human ScaleAverage Power
Public Domain
1.1 kW350 W
KkmdSpreeTom
88 W
Human ScaleAverage Power
Public Domain
900 kW
40 kW
Human ScaleAverage Power
Public Domain
570 MW
Human ScaleAverage Power
18 GW
Rehman
Human ScaleEnergy Use
• China: 1 kW / person
• World: 2 kW / person
• Japan: 5 kW / person
• Britain: 8 kW / person
• Canada: 11 kW / person
Data: MacKay (2009) Sustainable Energy - without the hot air
Defence0.2
Stuff2.5
Food0.6
Heating1.5
Lighting0.2
Jet Flights1.3Gadgets
0.2
Car1.7
Human ScaleCanadian Energy Use
Defence0.2
Stuff2.5
Food0.6
Heating1.5
Lighting0.2
Jet Flights1.3Gadgets
0.2
Car1.7
Public Domain
11 kW
Human ScaleEnergy Use and Life Expectancy
• China: 1 kW / person
• World: 2 kW / person
• Japan: 5 kW / person
• Britain: 8 kW / person
• Canada: 11 kW / person
Data: 2008, World Bank
Human ScaleEnergy Use and Infant Mortality
Data: 2008, World Bank
• China: 1 kW / person
• World: 2 kW / person
• Japan: 5 kW / person
• Britain: 8 kW / person
• Canada: 11 kW / person
Major TitleMinor Title
• Text