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This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Solar Photovoltaic Market: Sustainable Recovery or Short-Term Blip?
Jim HinesResearch Director, Semiconductors & Solar
Silicon Valley PV Society
Palo Alto, California
December 16, 2009
2© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
The PV Market: The Foundations Need Investment
Note: Photo Courtesy of Premier Power
3© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
Key Issues
1. What are the trends and forecast for the global PV Solar Market?
2. How will the US Solar Market Change?
3. What are the Semiconductor opportunities?
4© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
PV Solar Is the Focus for Utilities for Their Renewable Energy Initiatives
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Geothermal
Ocean (Tidal/Wave)
Offshore Wind Generation
CSP
Biomass
Hydropower (Mini/Micro)
Onshore Wind Generation
Photovoltaic
Source: Gartner Survey July 2009
Results of Survey of Utilities on Renewable Energy
Percent of Respondents
5© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
PV Market Drivers: Project Return on Investment Is Improved by Lower Cost
• Global electricity demand will double by 2030- >2000 new power plants WW
• Government incentives still needed to offset risk/expense of PV solar
• Cost barriers to adoption:1. Low efficiency
2. Short lifetime of inverters
3. Labor intensive installation
4. Monitoring and diagnostics
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
2008 2013$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
PV Module Sales PV System Cost
US$ Billion Dollars per WattPV Forecast
6© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
PV Market Inhibitors: Projects Remain Hostage to Conservative Financiers
0
5
10
15
20
25
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Crystalline Silicon PV
Thin Film PV
2013
Gig
awat
ts
PV Forecast US$ BPV Forecast (GW)
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
US$
Billi
ons
7© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
Expect Bifurcation in the Global PV Market
Source: SunEdison
Source: Premier Power
Distributed GenerationCentralized Generation
8© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
The PV Industry Is Expanding• China and the United
States will be the growth markets for the next 5 years
• Germany will continue to grow
• Government incentives remain a core driver
• Spain is not expected to be a top 5 market in 2013 Germany
USAChinaJapan
Italy
ChinaJapan
Italy
USA
ROWROW
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2009 2013
PV Forecast by Region
Germany
9© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
Key Issues
1. What are the trends and forecast for the global PV Solar Market?
2. How will the US Solar Market Change?
3. What are the Semiconductor opportunities?
10© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
The US Market is Poised to Grow Over 30% in 2009 and Exceed 4 GW in 2013
Note: Substation scale reaches up to 30 MW
• Drivers- Loosening credit- Pending loan guarantees
from government- Sub-station size utility
scale projects- Improved project ROI
• Inhibitors- Continued tight credit
markets- Uncertainty in US RPS
Policy
US PV Solar Forecast
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2009 2013
GW
11© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
Solar PPA Contracts Drive USA Growth
Note: Substation scale reaches up to 30 MW
80%
31%
11%
2%
9%
43%
24%
0%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2009 2013
Commercial ResidentialUtility - Substation Utility - Large
US Solar PPA Forecast by Vertical• From 0.12 GW in 2009 to
almost 3 GW in 2013
• Big shift from commercial projects to utility projects
12© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
… And the Vendor Landscape for Solar PPA Contracts Is About Change…
• Established U.S. solar IPP firms continue growing
• New firms entering market
• Traditional IPP firms will enter the market by leveraging their utility relationships Renewable
Ventures 12%
BP Solar5%
Solar Power
Partners 14%
Perpetual Energy
5%
Other PPA Vendors
27%SunEdison
27%
SolarCity10%
2008 US Solar PPA Contract Volume by Vendor (by MW)
Source Gartner August 2009, Base 93 MW
13© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
In addition….Consider One More Factor
There is NO “United States” Solar Market,
It’s local markets within each US State
14© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
The PV Solar Market: Eclipsed by The Financial Crisis
• What are the trends and forecast for the global PV Solar Market?
• How will the US Solar Market Change?
• What are the Semiconductor opportunities?
15© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
Power Quality and Return on Investment Criteria will Drive PV Panel-Level Functionality
Source: Texas Instruments
DC-DC Converters
Micro-Inverters
Source: Tigo Energy
Source: EnPhase
16© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
Semiconductor Solutions Will Make PV Solar More Cost-Effective
1. Panel-level functionalityPower optimization
Monitoring & diagnostics
Micro-inverters
DC-DC Converters
2. Inverter improvementsDesign around capacitor limitations
Integration of communications equipment
$0
$1
$2
2009 2013
CAGR 31%
Billion Dollars
Semiconductor Demand from PV Systems
17© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
Conclusions & Recommendations
1. The PV Market has strong potential, with demand recovering in 2010
2. China and US will be the core Growth Markets
3. Solar PPA firms will be a key driver for the US market and thus PV Module sales
4. Choose your go-to-market strategy wisely—utility or consumer?
5. Position technology against wider cost issues
6. Collaborate with regulatory agencies and standards bodies
This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Solar Photovoltaic Market: Sustainable Recovery or Short-Term Blip?
Jim HinesResearch Director, Semiconductors & Solar
Silicon Valley PV Society
Palo Alto, California
December 16, 2009
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