Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 1 USA Solar Market Solar Market Business Management SS ‘12 Jesús Martínez.

Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 1

USA Solar Market

Solar Market Business Management

SS ‘12

Jesús Martínez Cantú

Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 2

Agenda•Overview (Key facts)

•Electricity Energy Sector Infrastructure

•Electricity Prices and Solar radiation

•Levelized Cost of Electricity

•Grid Parity Projection

•Political Framework

•Conclusion Solar Marketconosurconsultores.com

Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 3

Overview (Key facts)• Federal constitutional republic (50 States and 1 Federal

district)• 9.8 million km^2 area (25 times Germany) and 312 million

people (3rd )• GDP 2011; US$ 15.1 trill. (1st), China US$ 7 trill. (2nd) . (1 US$

= 0.79 Eur)

• Energy Consumption 2011; 97.5 quad. BTU28.5 PWh (10^15)(1st ), more than 7 times Germany consumption (*) Data 2010 wikipedia

• Total energy consumption increases 12 % by 2035. (0.5% per year) US EIA

http://www.eia.gov/

energy_in_brief/

major_energy_sources_and_users.cf

m

http://www.eia.gov/

energy_in_brief/

renewable_electricity.cfm

Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 4

Electricity Energy Sector infrastructure

• Differents sources to generate electricity No national Grid to transmission• 3 grids operating in 48 contiguous states, 1 grid in Alaska and 1 grid in Hawaii.• In addition throughout the year consumption varies, therefore prices vary

according location.

http://www.eia.gov/

energy_in_brief/power_grid.cfm

http://www.eia.gov/

todayinenergy/detail.cfm

?id=4270

http://www.eia.gov/state/

(*) 2010

Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 5

Electricity prices 2011 Avg Vs. Radiation

(1 US$ = 0.79 Eur)

A (23.58 €cents/KWh) E (5.44 - 6.64 €cents/KWh)B (14.87 €cents/KWh) F (4.90 - 5.49 €cents/KWh)C (9.34 - 10.67 €cents/KWh) G (4.90 - 5.49 €cents/KWh)D (7.81 - 8.69 €cents/KWh) H (4.02 - 4.86 €cents/KWh)

Utility Scale

A (27.03 €cents/KWh) E (7.49 - 8.32 €cents/KWh)B (11.26 - 11.94 €cents/KWh) F (7.38 - 6.49 €cents/KWh)C (10.11 - 10.98 €cents/KWh) G (5.67 - 6.24 €cents/KWh)D (8.58 - 9.79 €cents/KWh) H (5.16 - 5.56 €cents/KWh)

Industrial Scale

A (28.81 €cents/KWh) E (10.01 - 10.71 €cents/KWh)B (14.29 €cents/KWh) F (8.35 - 9.35 €cents/KWh)C (12.79 - 13.77 €cents/KWh) G (7.24 - 8.06 €cents/KWh)D (11.72 - 12.32 €cents/KWh) H (6.06 - 6.99 €cents/KWh)

Residential Scale

Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 6

Levelized cost of Electricity Solar System

• Assumptions from RNEL 2011 study. (c-Si Modules) http://www.osti.gov/bridge

• 25 % overnight capital cost reduction due modules price vs. 2011 study. http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/beck_plantcosts/

• LCOE NREL simple calculator used. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/tech_lcoe.html

(1 US$ = 0.79 Eur)

Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 7

Grid Parity is coming…

(1 US$ = 0.79 Eur)

Assuming 10 % system price reduction by learning curve in PV. Approx. yearly trend increases electricity price by 2.65 % Residential, 1.89% Industrial and 0.5 % Utility.

Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 8

Political Framework• Adoption of electric retail

choice programs that allow end-use customers to buy electricity from competitive retail suppliers.

• State Incentives: California Solar Initiative. (http://www.gosolarcalifornia.ca.gov/csi/index.php)

• States Policies SREC’s on states with Renewable Portfolio Standard.

• Federal Incentives: Business Energy Investment Tax Credit (ITC) . 30 % tax credit from renewable equipment

http://www.eia.gov/

todayinenergy/detail.cfm

?id=6250

http://dsireusa.org

Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 9

Projection PV and CSP (Utility)

PV CSP

Country Status Expected CompletionNominal power (Capacity MW)

PlantsNominal power (Capacity MW)

PlantsTotal Nominal

Nominal power (Capacity MW)

Plants

USA Operating Operating 423 9 508 8 930 17Total Operating 423 9 508 8 930 17Under Construction 2012 50 1 50 1

2013 628 3 650 2 1,278 52014 600 1 360 2 960 32015 1,320 2 1,320 2

Total Under Construction 2,598 7 1,010 4 3,608 11Announced 2012 223 3 223 3

2013 576 5 576 52014 1,418 5 1,418 52015 1,560 2 1,560 22016 961 3 961 32025 2,700 1 2,700 1

No Date 1,799 4 5,099 25 6,898 29Total Announced 9,237 23 5,099 25 14,336 48

Total general 12,258 39 6,617 37 18,874 76

www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/

51847.pdf

www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/

51847.pdf

www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/51847.pdf

www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/51847.pdf

Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 10

U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)Sunshot iniative•Reducing Solar Technology Costs

▫Increasing PV solar cell efficiency, ▫Reducing production costs ▫Opening new markets for solar energy

•Reducing Solar Grid Integration Costs▫Grid Planning▫Reliability

•Accelerating Deployment solar technologies

Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 11

Conclusion• US Solar Market is increasing

▫Fast due approaching grid parity.▫RPS in states and federal incentives facilitate

deployment.

• Potential to be biggest solar market in the world. (Resources and demand).

• If trends prevail the percentage of Solar plants generating electricity at utility-scale will be higher than 16 % as projected in 2035 by US EIA. (http://205.254.135.7/forecasts/aeo/er/pdf/0383er(2012).pdf)

• Better estimation of LCOE should be customized to the location. (state characteristics, CP, more detailed overnight cost, wages, etc.)

Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 12

Thanks for your attention!!

Questions???

laiaatienza.com

Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 13

References• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)• http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/reports.cfm?t=182• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/

List_of_countries_by_energy_consumption_and_production• http://www.eia.gov/energy_in_brief/power_grid.cfm• http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/beck_plantcosts/• http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=4270• http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/tech_lcoe.html• http://www.osti.gov/bridge• http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/tablebrowser• http://dsireusa.org/• http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/tablebrowser/#release=EARLY2012&subject=2-

EARLY2012&table=2-EARLY2012&region=1-0&cases=early2012-d121011b• http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/51847.pdf• http://205.254.135.7/forecasts/aeo/er/pdf/0383er(2012).pdf• http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/• http://www.gosolarcalifornia.org/csi/index.php