Solar Influence on Stratosphere- Troposphere Dynamical Coupling Mike Blackburn (1) , Joanna D. Haigh (2) , Isla Simpson (2) , Sarah Sparrow (1,2) (1) Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK (2) Space and Atmospheric Physics, Imperial College London, UK Earth Simulator Center, 12 November 2007
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Solar Influence on Stratosphere-Troposphere Dynamical Coupling Mike Blackburn (1), Joanna D. Haigh (2), Isla Simpson (2), Sarah Sparrow (1,2) (1) Department.
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Solar Influence on Stratosphere-Troposphere
Dynamical Coupling
Mike Blackburn(1), Joanna D. Haigh(2), Isla Simpson(2), Sarah Sparrow(1,2)
(1) Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK
(2) Space and Atmospheric Physics, Imperial College London, UK
Earth Simulator Center, 12 November 2007
Outline
• Introduction - influence of the 11-year solar cycle on climate
• Observed atmospheric variability - regressions
• Model experiments to investigate how the tropospheric response over the 11-year cycle could be produced by a dynamical response to stratospheric heating
equilibrium response to heating
spin-up ensembles - mechanisms
• Comparison of two different stratospheric heating perturbation cases
• Relationship to internal annular variability
Observations of total solar irradiance
>2 solar cycles
Absolute values uncertain
~0.08% (1.1Wm-2) variation
C. Frölich, PWDOC
http://www.pmodwrc.ch/
Reconstruction using solar indices
Extrapolate an index which correlates with TSI over the observed period
Several indices!
IPCC: change in radiative forcing since 1750: 0.3 0.2Wm-2
Conversion TSI to RF: 4 disc-area 0.7 albedoSunspot number (grey)
Amplitude of sunspot cycle (red)Length of sunspot cycle (black)aa geomagnetic index (green) IPCC TAR
http://www.grida.no/
Proposed Amplification Mechanisms
• Solar UV and impact on stratospheric O3 (Haigh 1994)
- solar cycle variation ~7% at 200nm (cf 0.08% in TSI)
• Non-uniform.• Increase of ~1K in equatorial stratosphere, decreasing
towards the poles.• Banded increase in temperature in mid-latitudes.
Figure: Haigh (2003)
Multiple regression analysis of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, 1979-2000
Circulation changes over the 11-year cycle
• Weakening and poleward shift of the mid-latitude jets.• Weakening and expansion of the Hadley cells.• Poleward shift of the Ferrell cells.
Haigh and Blackburn (2006)
Multiple regression analysis of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, DJF, 1979-2002
GCM simulation (UGAMP GCM)
(a) Control run
(b) Difference between solar maximum and solar minimum:
Total solar irradiance Stratospheric ozone
Similar response found using the Met Office model
GCM response to solar irradiance & ozone (DJF)
Haigh, Science (1996); QJRMS (1999)
The Hypothesis
Are the tropospheric changes observed over the 11-year solar cycle a response to perturbations in the tropical (lower) stratosphere, which are a response to enhanced UV absorption at solar maximum?
Investigate using idealised stratospheric heating experiments in a simplified atmospheric GCM:
Can we reproduce the tropospheric response?
What (dynamical) mechanisms are involved?
Simplified GCM - “dynamical core” model
Based on University of Reading primitive equation model: (1)
1. Equilibrium response to perturbations to stratospheric Te(Haigh, Blackburn & Day, J.Clim., 2005)
2. Spin-up ensembles200 x 50-day run
(1) Hoskins & Simmons (1975)
(2) Held & Suarez (1994)
Comparing Uniform and Equatorial Heating
5K
0K
5K
Equatorial heating (5K) (E5)
Uniform heating (5K) (U5)
Weakening and poleward jet shift?
How does the tropospheric response depend on the heating distribution?
(b)
(c)
(a)
Simplified GCM equilibrium response
zonal wind (ms-1)
Run C
U5 - C E5 - C
Vertically-integrated budget of zonal momentum
0
1 s
ZONAL E S
p
DDYu dp Cg t
C
• Haigh et al (2005) - Equatorial heating gave a similar tropospheric response to that seen over the Solar cycle
• Coherent displacement of the jet and storm-track
• How does this arise?
• Spin-up ensemble for the equatorial heating case:
– 200, 50-day runs
Ensemble spin-up Experiments:
5K 0K4.5K0.5K
Change in temperature over the spin-up
Control
Equilibrium (Equatorial heating (5K) – Control)
09
2029
4049
Change in zonal wind over the spin-upEquilibrium (Equatorial heating (5K) – Control)
Control 09
2029
4049
increases
increases
decreases
decreases
Changes in eddy momentum fluxes are in the right sense to drive meridional circulation changes.
y
vuvf
t
u
]''[][
][
y
vu
''
][v
][v
y
vu
''
Mean meridional circulation
Horizontal Eddy Momentum Flux [u’v’]
Anomalous meridional circulations are accompanied by zonal wind accelerations in the troposphere:
y
vuvf
t
u
]''[][
][
increases
increases
decreases
decreases
Mean meridional circulation
Zonal mean zonal wind [u]
][v
][u
][v
][u
Comparison with zonally symmetric model.
• Eddy forcing remains fixed at its value of the control run.• Heating perturbation applied and the model run as before.
• Not much response in the troposphere, particularly at mid/high latitudes. it is altered eddy momentum fluxes that are important in driving the
tropospheric circulation changes.
Full 3D model No change in Eddy fluxes
[mmc]
[u]
What’s causing the change in eddy momentum fluxes?
E-P Flux
]''[
]''[
vF
vuF
p
Refractive Index
222
2
2cosa
NH
f
a
k
cu
qn y
C=8ms-1
Days 0 to 9 of the spin-up:
Change in E-P Flux and
Change in
222
2
2cosa
NH
f
a
k
cu
qn y
''vu
Change in : cu
qy
a) Only changing yq
b) Only changing u
Days 40 to 49 of the spin-up:
Change in E-P Flux and
Change in
222
2
2cosa
NH
f
a
k
cu
qn y
''vu
Change in : cu
qy
a) Only changing yq
b) Only changing u
Contributions to the change in PV gradient(days 0 9):
pp
pyyy
u
T
p
R
fuq
2
yyu
u
Meridional Curvature
Third term (only changing )
Third term (only changing )
Total change in PV gradient
u
Outline of mechanism:
Altered vertical temperature gradients Zonal wind accelerations
stratosphere/tropopause
Change in horizontal eddy momentum flux
Changes in mean meridional circulation
Zonal wind accelerations in the troposphere.
Altered horizontal temperature gradients
Comparing Uniform and Equatorial Heating:
5K
0K
5K
Equatorial heating (5K) (E5)
Uniform heating (5K) (U5)
Weakening and poleward jet shift.
Weakening and equatorward jet shift.
yq
''vu
E-P Flux
E5 (days 0 9 ) U5 (days 0 9 )
E5 (days 40 49 ) U5 (days 40 49 )
u
E-P flux and
n2
Conclusions (1)
• The tropospheric response to increased Solar activity could be produced by a dynamical response to increased heating in the stratosphere.
• Changes in eddy momentum flux are important in driving circulation changes in the troposphere.
• Feedback with changing zonal wind in the troposphere influencing eddy propagation.
• Change in vertical temperature gradient around the tropopause and its localisation in latitude is important in determining the direction of the jet shift.
Relationship with internal annular variability
• Internal Variability– Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs)– Phase space trajectories– Vertically integrated zonal momentum budget– EP Flux and zonal wind anomalies
→Dynamical mechanisms
Equilibrium Response
• U5: Jets weakened and shifted equatorwards.
• E5: Jets weakened and shifted polewards.
Control Run U5 - Control E5 - Control
Latitude (equator to pole) →
Hei
ght
→
Haigh et al (2005)
Leading Modes of Variability
EOF 1 (51.25%) EOF 2 (18.62%)
Latitude (equator to pole) →
Hei
ght
→
• Mean state differences from idealised forcing experiments project strongly onto the leading modes of variability in the control run.
Projections of Mean State Differences
The signal of the experiments can be viewed as displacements in principal component (PC) phase space.
Mean state differences project most strongly onto EOF1 and EOF2.
PC
2 A
mpl
itude
→
EOF Number →
Am
plitu
de (
ms-1
) →
U5-Control
E5-Control
PC1 Amplitude →
Phase Space
Pole
ward
Eq
uato
rward
Broader, Weaker
Narrower, Stronger
Internal Variability: Phase Space Trajectories
• At low frequencies circulation is anticlockwise with a timescale of ~46 days.
• At high frequencies circulation is clockwise with a timescale of ~ 7 days.
Arrow×2
Arrow×½
Unfiltered
Periods Longer than 30 Days
Low Pass Filter
Periods Shorter than 21 Days
High Pass Filter
PC1 →P
C2
→
Zonal Wind Evolution: Low Frequency
• Jet strengthens and moves polewards.• New subtropical jet grows forming double jet structure.• Poleward jet collapses and merges with the new
subtropical jet.
Zonally-averaged zonal momentum equation:
Integrated through depth of atmosphere:
or:
Vertically Integrated Zonal Momentum Budget
22
1cos
cos
uuv u f v F
t a p
220 0 0
1cos
cos
s s sp p pu dp u v u v dp F dp
t a
0
1 sp
ZONAL EDDY Su dp C Cg t
Vertically Integrated Momentum Budget: Low Frequency
0
1 sp
ZONAL EDDY Su dp C Cg t
Vertically Integrated Momentum Budget: High Frequency
0
1 sp
ZONAL EDDY Su dp C Cg t
Phase Space View of Momentum Budget
• Surface stress points slightly in advance of the origin in phase space.
• Eddies change behaviour at high and low frequencies.
0
1 sp
ZONAL EDDY Su dp C Cg t
PC1 →
PC
2 →
PC1 →
PC
2 →
Low Pass High Pass
EP Flux Anomalies: Low Frequency
Low PC1 Composite High PC1 Composite
• EP Flux anomalies reinforce current state.
• Subtle differences between the wind anomalies and the EP Flux cause phase space circulation
EP Flux Anomalies: High Frequency
Low PC1 Composite High PC1 Composite
Less LC1 More LC1More LC2 Less LC2
longitude
lati
tud
e
Thorncroft et al (1993)
Conclusions (2)
• Tropospheric response to stratospheric temperature changes project strongly onto dominant modes of annular variability.
• Distinct difference in behaviour at high and low frequencies:– Low frequency: poleward migration (quasi-equilibrium)– High frequency: equatorward migration (strongly evolving)
• Eddies drive the phase space trajectory at high and low frequencies:– Eddies are balanced more strongly by surface stress at low
frequencies leading to a slower circulation– High frequency eddy anomalies reflect past baroclinicity; feedback