solar future

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www.earthfuture.com SOLAR SATURDAY


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Our Solar Future

by Guy Dauncey, October 2011

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Our Solar Past


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We are here


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Solar energy travels at1,080 million kilometres an hour


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Sun to Earth in 8 minutes 19 seconds


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The solar energy absorbed by Earth's atmosphere,oceans and land masses is approximately

3,850,000EJ per year.This is more energy in an hourthan humans use in a year.

1,321 to 1,413 watts per square metre


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359 million years agoCarboniferous Era started


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It lasted for 60 million years


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In 200 years, through fossil fuels,we are burning ancient solar energy

that has been stored for 300 million years.


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As we burn the fossil fuels

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As we burn this ancient solar energy


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we release its ancient carboninto the atmosphere.


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The amount of carbon dioxidein the atmosphere is rising


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Carbon dioxide,like the other greenhouse gases,

traps


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www.earthfuture.com www.chemistryland.com


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CO2 also enters the ocean,making the seawater more acidic


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threatening marine life that uses calcium

carbonate to build its shells


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TheArctic sea ice

is melting

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Greenlandis melting


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Antarctica is melting


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The last time the world was 3C warmer(3 to 5 million years ago)

the sea level was25 metres higher


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2 metres

10 metres

18 metres

25 metres


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6 meter sea level in Vancouver

Sierra Club of BC, May 2006


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Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com Climate Denial


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We need to find a way

to return to a carbon natural world- as quickly as possible.


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TheSolar

Future


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The Carbon Yearsare the Launch Ramp for the Solar Years

Firewood500,000 years

Renewable Energy5 billion years


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40% growth pa16 - 50 cents/kWh

Global Potential: Enormous



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Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com Solar PV in Langley, BC


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Oak Bay High School


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Rooftop Solar - Googles Headquarters


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Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com Vauban, Freiburg, Germany


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Solar thermal + Solar PV + Skylights


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Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com Solar Plant, Bavaria, Germany


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TSouke First Nation, Sooke


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Four Times SquareNew York

Solar PV architecturalcladding, no extra cost



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Solar Stadium, Taiwan


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Solar Home of the Future1958


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Solar Siding


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Solar railwayParis to Amsterdam

16,000 panels3.4 kilometres

3,300 MWh a year


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Les Mees, southern France18.2 MW

26 GWh/year 36 acres


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Pal Town

Ota Solar City, Japan


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Ota Solar City, Japan


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Solar township in California, USA

Solar township in Amersfoort, Holland


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Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com Gemosolar, Seville, Spain


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For the same monthlymicro-loan repayment as

the cost of kerosene,

people in rural areas in thedeveloping world caninstall a 50 watt solar PVsystem for their lighting

needs.

www.self.org


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Kurzweil- Earth Policy Institute


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Solar market penetration


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Source: unknown


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Source: unknown

Canada


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5% of Alberta, if covered with solar PV,

could produce 100% of Canadas electricity needs.

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Impact of snows high albedo on solar PV performance= up to 100% increased yield


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Ann & Gord Bairds Eco-Sense house, Highlands100% increased PV yield

during late December snowfall, 2010www.eco-sense.ca


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Stone Mills, Ontario126,000 solar panels 90 acres

10 million kWh/year= 1,000 households


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Ontarios Solar Feed-in Tariff

Will there be a British Columbia


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BC Hydros generation 50,000 GWhTodays electricity 90% greenImported power 2010 4,000 GWh

Available new wind, river 20,000 GWh

Price of run-of-river energy 7-15 cents kWhPrice of wind energy 12-15 cents kWh

Price of solar PV 50 - 80 cents kWhExport price for surplus power 5 cents kWh

Will there be a British ColumbiaFeed-in Tariff?

Solar Economics in Southwest BC


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2011

Cost of 1 kW system $8,000Cost of money @ 5% $5,000Total cost over 25 years $13,000

Energy produced per year 1,100 kWhEnergy value per year $110 ($0.10)

Payback 118 yearsLife of system 50 years



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2011 2020

Cost of 1 kW system $8,000 $5,000Cost of money @ 5% $5,000 $3,000Total cost over 25 years $13,000 $8,000

Energy produced per year 1,100 kWh 1,200 kWhEnergy value per year $110 ($0.10) $180 ($0.15)

Payback 118 years 44 yearsLife of system 50 years 50 years



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2011 2020 2030

Cost of 1 kW system $8,000 $5,000 $3,000Cost of money @ 5% $5,000 $3,000 $1,100 (3%)Total cost over 25 years $13,000 $8,000 $4,100

Energy produced per year 1,100 kWh 1,200 kWh 1,300 kWhEnergy value per year $110 ($0.10) $180 ($0.15) $260 ($0.20)

Payback 118 years 44 years 16 yearsLife of system 50 years 50 years 50 years

Solar Economics in California


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2011 2020 2030

Cost of 1 kW system $3,500 $3,000 $2,500Cost of money @ 5% $2,150 $1,850 $900 (3%)Total cost over 25 years $5,650 $4,850 $3,400

Energy produced per year 1,500 kWh 1,600 kWh 1,700 kWhEnergy value per year $270 ($0.18) $352 ($0.25) $510 ($0.30)

Payback 20 years 14 years 7 yearsLife of system 50 years 50 years 50 years


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1. Resiliency - home power in the event of poweroutages, earthquakes or disruptions

2. Value - perceived advantage for future purchasers3. Efficiency - reduced long-distance transmissionlosses

4. Reliable - no moving parts that can fail5. Local economy - solar creates more jobs per MW hour

than any other kind of energy6. Good energy payback (EROI) - 1 to 3 years7. Zero carbon - a direct response to climate change8. Silent, clean, and non-polluting

Nuclear vs Solar


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Nuclear vs Solar


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Thin film solar


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Thin film solar production


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Thin film solar


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Transparent

solarwindows


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Nanosolar PV


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5 Million


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Green Jobs

The solutions to global

warming are not just aguard against future

economic ruin.

They are also solutionsto our current economic

stagnation and

unemployment.

www.1sky.org


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The Self-Reliant Economicsf R bl E


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of Renewable Energy

In 2010, the US spent $337 billion on oil imports= $641,000 per minute, $1,000 per person/year

Dollar Exports

The Self-Reliant Economicsf R bl E


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A dollar spent on locally produced energy may be spent 10 times

before it leaves the country. That $1 creates $10 in value to thecountry. Spend it on imported oil, and 70 cents immediately leavesthe country. 22 cents goes to the oil company, 3 cents to the creditcard company, and 8 cents stays with the gas station owner.

$1$1

$1

$1$1$1

$1

$1

$1 $1 $1

0.22

of Renewable Energy

$1

0.03

.70

0.08

0.08

0.08

0.08

0.08

0.08

0.08

0.08 0.08


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What else is possib le?

Solar Cars


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Solar EV, Norway, 1990


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The Plug-in Hybrid EV


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Antro Solo, Hungary


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In 2003 Chen Shengui from Jiangjiangbuilt a solar-powered car.


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Chen Shenguis Prototype #1


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Chen Shenguis Prototype #2


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YouTube Videowww.bit.ly/Shengui


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In 2008, Louis Palmer drive his Solar Taxiaround the world on solar power.


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53,451 km around the world850 watts PV trailer 8 kWh = 100 km

Total power needed = 4,276 kWh

In one year, a 4 kW system could provide all thepower he needed to drive around the world.


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Solar EV Charging


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SolarParking

and Shading


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In Victoria 1 kW will produce 1,100 kWh a year

Electric car: 15 kWh = 100 km10,000 km a year = 1,500 kWh

1.5 kW system = 1,650 kWh/year$12,000 today ($6,000 soon)

$12,000 25 years guarantee

Solar Electric: 5% mortgage = $70/monthGas: $1.50 litre, 5 l/100km 500 litres = $750 = $62/month

Solar EV Cars

Solar Hot Water


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Solar hot

wateron a

restaurant inSweden

Photo by Hamilton Hazlehurst/Vulcan

Lindau Hospital, Germany


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Solar hot water


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on the Best Western Inn, Kelowna

www.swisssolartech.com


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www.solarbc.ca

A project of the BCSEA

Evacuated tubes


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Julia Roberts, Nelson, BCGlobe Solar Energy

Jenergy Technologies


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Cost: $4,000 to $9,000

Average $7,200Energy generated: 1,000 - 1,500 kwh a yearSavings @ 0.8 cents kWh = $80 - $120/year

Solar Hot Water in China

T t l i t ll d 60 illi h


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Total installed: 60 million homes

Target for 2015: 115 million homes


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CSIRO1500 yuan ($220) per system


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CSIRO

$220 per system

Cheaper labour costs Very competitive environment - 800 different systems

Direct water to kitchen, no glycol heat transfer Very simple installation


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Year-Round Solar Heating

Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta.


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The Energy Centre

Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta.

Solar Thermal Heating 12 months a year

Community solar

heat panelsSolar hot water

panelsGuy Dauncey 2007

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800


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solar hot water

panelson the garages

90% of residential spaceheating needs met by solarthermal energy (40-50o C)

Reduction - 5 tonnes ofgreenhouse gas emissions

per home per year.


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No groundwaterintrusion, so the heataccumulates over thesummer and is notcarried away.

Solar Thermal Space HeatingRostock, Germany


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Sorce:

Solvis

Heat storage in an underground aquifer


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Solar Thermal Space Heating

enerquest.ca


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Olivier Drucke, 2009


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Olivier Drucke, 2009

Solar heated cob houseThe Highlands, Victoria


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g ,

Anne & Gord Baird


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www.eco-sense.ca

Solar wall heating


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Commercial/Industrial Solar Walls


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Solar wallGateway, Surrey

Solar wall

Festo, Mississauga

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Welsh Development Agency

Technology Center, St. Asaph, North Wales


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Solar heater in Sequim, WA

www.westernwashingtonsolar.com


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Concentrating Solar Thermal


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Solar Millennium AG

The Sun radiates almost 1000 timesmore energy onto Earths desertsthan humankind uses.


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Odeillo solar furnace, Spain


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Large square 254 sq km = current world electricity useSmall square 110 sq km = current European Union use

www.trecers.org


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What else is possib le?


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Carmanah Solar Lighting


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New Jersey


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Solar Cookers


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Solar Dryers


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Sun21, First Solar Transatlantic Crossing, 200710 kW PV, 5-6 knots, 30 days


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Solarship, for freight transport(concept photos)


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Believethat it is

possible

100,000 Solar Roofs in BCby 2020


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by 2020

What will it take?

Victorias share 8% = 8,000

Victorias Solar Maths320,000 people 144,000 dwellings


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1,000 square sunny feet per roof = 144 million sq ftHalf houses suitable = 72 million sq ft

100 sq ft = 1 kW of Solar PV72 million sq ft = 720,000 kW = 720 MW

1,100 hours sunshine a year x 500 MW720 MW x 1,100 kWh per year = 792,000 MWh = 792 GWh

BC (4.4 million people) uses 60,000 GWhVictoria is 8% of BCs population

8% of 60,000 GWh = 4,800 GWh

Rooftop solar PV could meet 16% of Victorias power needs

or 32% if everything was twice as efficient

We need


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We need


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Local solar champions

We need

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Solar buying clubs - Swiss Solar

We need

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Solar buying clubs - Swiss SolarTop-notch solar installers

We need

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Solar buying clubs - Swiss SolarTop-notch solar installersCompetition, with choice of systems

We need

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Trained building and plumbing inspectors

We need

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Trained building and plumbing inspectorsSolar-ready building requirements

We need

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Trained building and plumbing inspectorsSolar-ready building requirementsSolar trades training in the colleges

We need

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Solar financing via municipal taxes

We need

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Solar financing via municipal taxesSolar financing via utility bills

We need

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Solar financing via municipal taxesSolar financing via utility billsSolar hot water required in the building code


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650 members4 Chapters around the province

Policy engagement with BC government,BC Hydro, BCUC.

SolarBC

Climate Change ShowdownGreen Condos


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www.bcsea.org

We welcome your membership,to help us continue our work.


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This is an amazing opportunity


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to build a Solar World


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Guy Dauncey


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thf t

solar future

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