1 Soils and World Food Security Dr. Rattan Lal Carbon Management and Sequestration Center GIFS Conference, 14-16 June, Saskatoon
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Carbon Management and Sequestration Center
Soils and World Food Security Dr. Rattan Lal
Carbon Management and Sequestration Center
GIFS Conference, 14-16 June, Saskatoon
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Carbon Management and Sequestration Center
THE ANTHROPOGENIC DRIVER
I = P x A x T P = Population A = Affluence T = Technology
Over the last 10,000 years, the number of humans has increased about a thousand-fold from 2- 20 million to 7.3 billion.
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NTHROPOGENIC
number of humans has increased about a thousand-fold from
1.0 1800
1.3 1850
1.7 1900 1.8
1910 1.9 1920
2.1 1930
2.3 1940
2.5 1950
3.0 1960
3.7 1970
4.4 1980 5.3
1990
6.1 2000
7.0 2011
7.5 2020
8.1 2030
8.6 2040
1.7
9.7 2050
11.2 2100
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Carbon Management and Sequestration Center
2000 6896 1381 3357 280
EXPANSION OF GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL LAND
Population (106)
Agricultural Land (106 ha) Year Cropland Pasture land Irrigated
1 188 130 110 1800 989 420 510 8 2100 6896 1381 3357 280
Population (106)
Agricultural Land (106 ha) Year Cropland Pasture land Irrigated
1 188 130 110 1800 989 420 510 8
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Carbon Management and Sequestration Center
GLOBAL FERTILIZER USE (IFDC 2004; FAO 2015)
Year
Fertilizer Use (106 Mg) Total N P K
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2003 2010 2012
<10 11.6 31.8 60.8 77.2 80.9 84.7 113 123
- 10.9 21.1 31.7 36.3 32.5 33.6 44 46
- 8.7 16.4 24.2 24.5 21.8 23.2 27 28
10 31.2 73.3 116.7 138.0 135.2 141.6 184 194
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Carbon Management and Sequestration Center
GLOBAL PESTICIDE USE
Total: 2!106 Mg/yr
Europe : 45% USA : 25%
Others : 30%
Herbicides : 47.5% Insecticides : 29.5% Fungicides : 17.5%
Others : 5.5%
Source: De et al. (2014)
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Carbon Management and Sequestration Center
Dyson (1999)
WORLD CEREAL YIELD 1951–1997
1951–1997 1951–1997
Met
ric to
ns p
er h
ecta
re
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Carbon Management and Sequestration Center
INDICATORS OF HUMAN-ECOSYSTEM INTERACTIONS
Population
2015 – 7.3B 2050 – 9.7B 2100 – 11.2B
Soil Erosion
Water = 1.1Bha Wind = 0.55Bha
Secondary Salinization
20% of all irrigated lands
Algal Blooms
Regions: Great Lakes, Gulf of Mexico, Chesapeake Bay, Lake Taihu in China, Baltic Sea etc.
Loss of Agric. Land to Sealing and Urbanization
By 2030, global urban land cover will increase by 152 Mha or 10% of
current arable land area
Loss of Biodiversity
1000 to 10,000 sp./yr, background rate of 5 sp./yr
Tropical Deforestation
1990s = 8 Mha/yr 2000s = 7.6 Mha/yr
A region equivalent to Sri Lanka
Loss of Terrestrial C Pool
Land Use = 486 Pg Soil = 78 Pg
www.nrcs.usda.gov www.soils4teachers.org Lal (2015) thewatchers.adorraeli.com www.emaze.com
Groundwater Depletion
Ogalalla, Indo-Gangetic Plains, North China Plains,
etc.
C Pool
Plains, North China Plains, www.sustainableworks.org
C Pool
Lal (2015) thewatchers.adorraeli.comLal (2015) thewatchers.adorraeli.comLal (2015) www.emaze.comLal (2015) www.emaze.comLal (2015) thewatchers.adorraeli.comwww.emaze.comthewatchers.adorraeli.comLal (2015) thewatchers.adorraeli.comLal (2015) www.emaze.comLal (2015) thewatchers.adorraeli.comLal (2015)
Groundwater Depletion Ogalalla, Indo-Gangetic
Plains, North China Plains, www.sustainableworks.orgthewatchers.adorraeli.comwww.sustainableworks.orgthewatchers.adorraeli.comwww.emaze.comwww.sustainableworks.orgwww.emaze.comLal (2015) www.emaze.comLal (2015) www.sustainableworks.orgLal (2015) www.emaze.comLal (2015) thewatchers.adorraeli.comwww.emaze.comthewatchers.adorraeli.comwww.sustainableworks.orgthewatchers.adorraeli.comwww.emaze.comthewatchers.adorraeli.comLal (2015) thewatchers.adorraeli.comLal (2015) www.emaze.comLal (2015) thewatchers.adorraeli.comLal (2015) www.sustainableworks.orgLal (2015) thewatchers.adorraeli.comLal (2015) www.emaze.comLal (2015) thewatchers.adorraeli.comLal (2015)
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Carbon Management and Sequestration Center
BIOTA 620 Pg
ATMOSPHERE 840 Pg
+4.5 Pg/yr
SOILS (3-M) 4,000 Pg
OCEAN 42,000 Pg + 2.3 Pg/yr
(i)! Surface layer: 670 Pg (ii)! Deep layer: 36,730 Pg (iii)! Total organic: 1,000 Pg
FOSSIL FUELS 4,130 Pg
(i) Coal: 3,510 Pg (ii) Oil: 230 Pg (iii) Gas: 140 Pg (iv) Other: 250 Pg
90 Gt/yr
MRT = 5Yr
MRT = 25Yr
Mean Residence Time (MRT) = 400Yr
MRT = 6Yr
BIOTA620 Pg
TMOSPHERE840 Pg
+4.5 Pg/yr PgPg
ATMOSPHERE
THE SHORT-TERM GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE
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Carbon Management and Sequestration Center
ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS (Pg) BY CARBON CIVILIZATION
I.! Land use : 486 (i)! Prehistoric : 320 (ii)! 1750-2010 : 136 (iii)! 2010-2030 : 30
II. Fossil Fuel combustion: 390 (i)! 1750-2010 : 200 (ii)! 2010-2030 : 190
These emissions have and will affect the ecosystems from which we derive food, feed, fiber, fuel and shelter.
The cause of Super-interglaciation
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Carbon Management and Sequestration Center
HUBBERT CURVE FOR SOIL Sy
stem
-per
form
ance
S
Skrit Sopt. Skrit Soil (S) access
Suitable arable agricultural land 0.25 ha/capita
0.05 ha/capita? Land grab / civil unrest
Smax
Scrit
Soil Refugees
HUBBERT CURVE FOR SOILSy
stem
-per
form
ance
S
Skrit Sopt. Skrit Soil (S) access
Suitable arable agricultural land Suitable arable agricultural land 0.25 ha/capita 0.25 ha/capita
0.05 ha/capita? 0.05 ha/capita? Land grab / civil unrest Land grab / civil unrest
Smax
Scrit
Soil Refugees Soil Refugees
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Carbon Management and Sequestration Center
1050
1025
1000
975
950
925
900
875
850
800 0
Wor
ld’s
Hun
gry
(106
)
1992 2002 2007 2010 2013 Year
0 2015
GLOBAL FOOD INSECURITY (FAO, 2015)
South Asia 35.0
Sub-Saharan Africa 26.5
Eastern Asia 19.8
South-eastern Asia 7.7
Latin American & the
Caribbean 5.6 Others 5.3
Chronically underfed ~ 0.8 billion
Micronutrient deficiency ~ 2 billion
Sub-Saharan Africa 26.5 Africa 26.5
Eastern Asia 19.8
Chronically underfed ~ 0.8 billion
Micronutrient deficiency ~ 2 billion
Carbon Management and Sequestration Center MDG of reducing hunger to 410 million by 2015 has not been met
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Carbon Management and Sequestration Center
REQUIRED CEREAL YIELDS AND PRODUCTION TO MEET FUTURE DEMANDS
(WILD, 2003)
Year Yield (Mg/ha) Total Production (106M) 2005 2025 2050
3.27 3.60 4.30
2240 2780 3255 (6.00)
(4.40) (4553) (3629)
(with change to animal-based diet)
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Carbon Management and Sequestration Center
THE RESOURCES USED FOR AGRICULTURE •! 38% of the Earth’s terrestrial surface is used
for agriculture, •! 75% of agricultural land (3.73 Bha) is allocated
to raising animals, •! 70% of the global freshwater withdrawals are
used for irrigation, •! 30-35% of global greenhouse gas emissions
are contributed by agriculture, And yet 1 in 7 persons is food-insecure
and 2-3 in 7 are malnourished.
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Carbon Management and Sequestration Center
MEETING FOOD DEMAND BY 2050 The world produces enough food to feed 10 billion people . Thus, food and nutritional security must be achieved by:
•! Reducing waste (30-50%),
•! Increasing access to food by addressing poverty, inequality, wars and political instability,
•! Improving distribution,
•! Increasing use of pulses and plant-based diet, petri-dish hamburgers, and alternate source of protein,
•! Accepting personal responsibility of not taking things for granted, and
•! Increasing agronomic productivity from existing land, restoring degraded lands, enhancing BNF by legumes and converting some agricultural land for nature conservancy without any conversion of natural land to agro-ecosystems, through sustainable intensification sustainable intensification and restoration of soil health.
15 No additional appropriation of land and water to agriculture
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Carbon Management and Sequestration Center
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The strategy is to produce more food:
•! from less land,
•! per drop of water,
•! per unit input of fertilizers and pesticides,
•! per unit of energy, and
•! per unit of C emission.
Produce more from less
•
•
•
•
•
Produce more
SUSTAINABLE INTENSIFICATION
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Carbon Management and Sequestration Center
Sustainable Soil Management •!!!!"#$%&'#!()&*!+,!-#./0#12!!•!!!!"#,$/31!(+,#%4!*/!()&*!+,!')&35#12!&31!!•!!!!6-#1+'*!()&*!(+%%!)&$$#3!7-/.!&3*)-/$/5#3+'!!!!!!!&31!3&*8-&%!$#-*8-9&:/3,!!•! ;3)&3'#!,/+%!-#,+%+#3'#!
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Carbon Management and Sequestration Center
Accelerated erosion
Innovative Technology II
Innovative Technology I Subsistence
farming, none or low off-farm input soil degradation
New equilibrium
Adoption of RMPs
Time (Yrs) Lal, 2004
80
100
20
40 60 80 100 120 140 160
40
60
20
Rel
ativ
e So
il C
Poo
l
0
Maximum Potential
Rate !Y
!X
Attainable Potential
C Sink C
apacity
!t
•!Conservation Agriculture •!Biochar •!Agroforestry •!Desert. Control •! Afforestation •! Pasture Mgmt •!H2O harv., DSI •!Farming Systems
•Conservation Agriculture •Biochar •Agroforestry •Desert. Control • Afforestation • Pasture •H2O •Farming Systems
Conservation
Desert. Control Afforestation
Mgmt., DSI
MRT = Pool Flux
SOIL C SEQUESTRATION
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Carbon Management and Sequestration Center
SOC AND SOIL HEALTH
Soil Organic Carbon
Physical I. Water ! Increase retention ! Decreases drought ! Reduces runoff and erosion ! Decreases infiltration ! Improves filtration II. Structure ! Increases aggregation ! Improves aeration ! Reduces crusting and compaction ! Improves tilth
Chemical I. Soil Fertility ! Reservoir of plant nutrients ! Increases N, P, S II. CEC ! Increases buffering ! Decreases leaching ! Increases surface area
Biological I. Biodiversity ! Improves soil biota ! Increases cycling ! Provides energy II. Activity ! Increase MBC ! Increases biopores
Ecological I. Elemental Cycling ! Improves cycling (N, P, S) ! Increase physio-chemical activity ! Increases use efficiency of N, P, S, H2O II. Productivity ! Increases productivity ! Improves produce quality ! Enhances stability
Biochemical Eco-physical
Lal (2016)
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Carbon Management and Sequestration Center
CRITICAL LEVEL OF SOC FOR WHEAT YIELD
4000
3000
2000
1000
0 0 20 80 60 40
Soil Organic C (Mg ha-1)
Yiel
d (k
g ha
-1)
(Diaz-Zorita et al., 2002)
1.5-2.0%
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Carbon Management and Sequestration Center
CROP YIELD INCREASE WITH INCREASE IN SOC BY MG C/HA
Crop Yield Increase (kg/ha.Mg C)
Sorghum 80 - 140
Maize 100 - 300
Soybean 20 - 50
Wheat 20 - 70
Rice 10 - 50
Millet 30 - 70
Beans 30 - 60
Lal, 2005
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Carbon Management and Sequestration Center
GLOBAL SOIL ORGANIC CARBON POOL 0-40cm DEPTH
Total Pool = 850 Gt .... Batjes (1996)
0.4% Increase/yr = 3.6 Gt C/yr
OFF-SETTING OIL BY SOIL C SEQUESTRATION
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Carbon Management and Sequestration Center
Soil Structure
Carbon Management and Sequestration Center Physical Quality
• Aggregation • Biopores • Available water capacity • Infiltration rate • Soil temperatures • Erodibility
Ecological Quality
• Erosion controls • Water quality • Sedimentation
Biological Quality
• MBC • Earthworm activity • Soil biodiversity
Chemical Quality
• Nutrient pool and dynamics • Soil reaction • Base saturation • CEC
Mulching &
Soil Health
Chemical Quality Chemical Quality Chemical Quality
• Sedimentation
Ecological Quality
Biological Quality
Soil Structure
• Erodibility
Mulching
Soil Structure
Ecosystem Processes
Elemental Transformations
Rhizopheric Processes
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Carbon Management and Sequestration Center
NO-TILL FARMING AS AN EMERGING GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY
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Carbon Management and Sequestration Center
CLAY
SAND
CLAY
SAND
Surface/Tile Drainage
(Ridge/Furrow) System
Minimum Tillage (Chisel Plowing)
No-Till (Cover-Cropping)
Dry Farming (Water Harvesting)
Plowing at the End of Rains
(Rough Seed Bed)
No-Till (Cover-Cropping
& Chiseling)
CLAY LOAM
SILTY CLAY LOAM
SILT LOAM
SANDY LOAM
LOAMY SAND
PER HUMID
HUMID SUB HUMID
SEMI ARID
ARID PER HUMID
HUMID SUB HUMID
SEMI ARID
ARID
Lal, 1984
SOIL GUIDE TO NO-TILL FARMING
Carbon Management and Sequestration Center
WATER EROSION
WATER EROSION - CRUSTING
WATER LOGGING – WATER EROSION
WATER AND WIND EROSION
WIND EROSION DROUGHT STRESS
Source: Lal (1985)
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Carbon Management and Sequestration Center
N, P, K, Zn, H2O
TOWARDS C-NEUTRAL AGRICULTURE
Chatting with plants
through molecular-
based signals
N, P, K, Zn, H O N, P, K, Zn, HN, P, K, Zn, H
No-till Farming INM
N, P, K, Zn, HN, P, K, Zn, H
No-till No-till INM
Soil biota and ecosystems services
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Carbon Management and Sequestration Center
<8,*&+3&9%#!8,#!/7!,/+%!=!(
&*#-!-#,/8-'#,!
>/*#?!@)#!,*8A!*)&*!&$$#&-,!9#4/31!*)#!7-&.#!(/3B*!&$$#&-!+3!*)#!,%+1#!+*,#%7C!
AND THE ECOSYSTEM SERVICES GENERATED
COUPLED CYCLING OF H2O, C, N, P
!"#$%&'(')$
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Carbon Management and Sequestration Center
CREATING POSITIVE C BUDGET
Soil Carbon Sequestration Soil Carbon Depletion
Losses
Biochar Compost
Cover Crops Root Biomass Crop Residues
Erosion Leaching
Decomposition
Residue Compost
Root Biomass Erosion
Leaching Decomposition
Gains
Gains
Losses
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Carbon Management and Sequestration Center
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“Soil biota is the bioengine of the Earth”
There is no such thing as a free biofuel from crop residues.
ECONOMICS OF RESIDUE REMOVAL FOR BIOFUEL
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Carbon Management and Sequestration Center
ATMOSPHERIC BROWN CLOUD CAUSED BY TRADITIONAL BIOFUELS
(NYT 4-16-09)
More plant nutrients are burnt in dung as household fuel than chemical fertilizers used/yr in India.
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Carbon Management and Sequestration Center • Extractive !"#$%&'()*+,%,-.&/.
• Depletion of SOC and Nutrients • Decline in Soil Structure
• Loss of Soil Resilience
• Decline in Ecosystem Functions and Services
• Loss of Soil biodiversity • Disruption of Key Processes
• Hunger • Malnutrition • Political Unrest • Civil Strife •! War and insecurity •! The Migrant Crisis The Migrant Crisis The Migrant Crisis
Severe Degradation
THE REGIME SHIFT BY EXTRACTIVE FARMING
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Carbon Management and Sequestration Center
City 1950 2025 Growth Factor
Population (106)
IMPORTANCE OF URBAN AGRICULTURE
(Adapted from Kazmin, 2011)
City 1950 2025 Growth Factor
New Dehli 1.4 28.6 20.4
Calcutta 4.5 20.1 4.5
Bombay 2.9 25.8 8.9
Pune 0.6 6.6 11.0
Hyperabad 1.1 8.9 8.1
Bangalore 0.7 9.5 13.6 Madras 1.5 9.6 6.4 % of population living in cities of > 1 million
3.1%
15.6%
5.0
New Dehli 1.4 28.6 20.4 Calcutta 4.5 20.1 4.5
Bombay 2.9 25.8 8.9
Pune 0.6 6.6 11.0 Hyperabad 1.1 8.9 8.1
Bangalore 0.7 9.5 13.6
Madras 1.5 9.6 6.4 % of population living in cities of > 1 million
3.1 15.6 5.0
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Carbon Management and Sequestration Center
POPULATION GROWTH IN AFRICAN CITIES (UN PUBLICATION ST/ESA/SER.A/274 2008)
City
Population (106) 1975 2007 2025 Growth (%/yr)
Accra 0.7 2.1 3.4 2.93 Addis 0.9 3.1 6.2 7.o Dar 0.6 2.9 5.7 4.39 Kinishase 1.5 7.8 16.8 3.89 Lagos 1.9 9.5 15.8 4.44 Nariobi 0.7 3.0 5.9 3.87
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Carbon Management and Sequestration Center
Urbanization and Land
•! It takes 40,000 ha to provide accommodation and infrastructure to 1 million people
•! Annual increase of 75 million people, takes ~3 Mha of prime land out of production
•! Cities with population of " 1010 are 28 in 2015 and will be 41 in 2030.
•! A city of 10 million requires 6000 tones of food/day
USING TOP SOIL FOR BRICK MAKING IN ASIA TO ACCOMMODATE RAPID URBANIZATION
20-25% of food must be produced within the urban ecosystem on recycled nutrients and water
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Carbon Management and Sequestration Center
•! Mining C has the same effect on global warming whether it is through mineralization of soil organic matter and extractive farming or burning fossil fuels or draining peat soils. •! Soil can be a source or sink of GHGs depending on land use and management
•! The potential of elite varieties can be realized only if grown under optimal soil conditions. •! Even the elite varieties cannot extract water and nutrients from any soil where they do not exist.
•! Soil are integral to any strategy of mitigating global warming and improving the environment. •! Sustainable management of soils is the engine of economic development, political stability and transformation of rural communities in developing countries.
•! Sustainable management of soil implies the use of modern innovations built upon the traditional knowledge.
Carbon Management and Sequestration Center
Sustainable Soil
Management
1. Causes of Soil
Degradation
2. Soil Stewardship
& Human Suffering 3.
Nutrient, Carbon, &
Water Bank
4. Marginality Principle
5. Organic vs. Inorganic
Nutrients 6. Soil Carbon
& GHG Effect
8. Soil as Sink for
Atmospheric CO2
Atmospheric Atmospheric Atmospheric Atmospheric 7.
Soil vs.
Germplasm
9. Engine of Economic Development
10. Traditional Knowledge &
Modern Innovations
•! The biophysical process of soil degradation is driven by economic, social and political forces. •! Vulnerability to degradation depends on “how” rather than “what” is grown.
•! When people are poverty stricken, desperate and starving, they pass on their sufferings to the land. •! It is not possible to take more out of a soil than what is put in it without degrading its quality. •! Only by replacing what is taken can a soil be kept fertile, productive, and responsive to management
•! Marginal soils cultivated with marginal inputs produce marginal yields and support marginal living. •! Plants cannot differentiate the nutrients supplied through inorganic fertilizers or organic amendments. •! The strategy is of producing more from less.
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Carbon Management and Sequestration Center
•! Animal Power •! Rotations
•! Sustainable intensification (SI)
•! Rhizospheric processes
•! Disease- suppressive soils
•! Soil-less agriculture
•! The nexus approach
•! Phytobiome management
•! Petri-dish veal
•! Insect/alternative protein
•! Agricultural robots
•! Smart-phone
extension
•! Recarbon-
ization of the biosphere
•! Farmscaping
•! Insect/alternative protein
•! Soil microbiome
•! Smart-phone
extension
•! Soil-less agriculture
•! Urban
agriculture
•! Space farming
TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATIONS
•! Hand Tools GR
EEN
REV
OLU
TIO
N
! M
achi
ne p
ower
!
Ferti
lizer
s !
Ger
mpl
asm
YEAR
REL
ATIV
E FO
OD
PR
OD
UC
TIO
N (M
g/ha
)
WORLD POPULATION (BILLIONS)
12
8
6
4
1
0.8
15 20
1750 1850 1950 Y
1975 2000 2025 2050 2015
20 20 0.8 1 3 4 (B
6 8 9.6 ) 7.6
!!C
onse
rvat
ion
agric
ultu
re !
Mic
ro-ir
rigat
ion
!
Pre
cisi
on fa
rmin
g !
Per
enni
al c
ultu
re
! C
ompl
ex ro
tatio
ns !
GM
Os
!! Improved cultivars
!! Biotech- nology
!! No-till farming
!! INM
!! IPM
! Carbon sequestration
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Carbon Management and Sequestration Center
SOIL STEWARDSHIP
Soil stewardship and care must be embedded in every fruit and vegetable eaten, in each grain
ground into the bread consumed, in every cup of water used, in every breath of air inhaled, and in
every scenic landscape cherished.
Lal (2014)