Soft power of Russia and China in Central Asia presentation for V Chinese-Russian Summer School on International Relations Dmitry Ontoev Head of Regional.

Soft power of Russia and Chinain Central Asia

presentation forV Chinese-Russian Summer School on International Relations

Dmitry OntoevHead of Regional Studies LabSKOLKOVO Institute for Emerging Market Studies

July 6, 2015

Moscow

Overview

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What is soft power?

How can soft power be measured?

Central Asia: context

Russian soft power in Central Asia:

– Goals

– Major trends and instruments

– Limitations

Chinese soft power in Central Asia

– Goals

– Major trends and instruments

– Limitations

Other soft power players in the region

Potential scope of cooperation between Russia and China

What is soft power?

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What is power in international relations?The ability to influence the behavior of others to get the outcomes one wants. Nye finds three basic ways to do this: coercion, induction and attraction.

Does soft power exist?Despite the widespread usage of the word, some sceptics say that the only power worthy of the word is military or economic power as power implies coercion.

What is soft power? Is it a resource or interaction?One of the most debated topics – can soft power be accumulated and lost, can one say that one state has “more soft power” than another state? Or is soft power a set of technologies and instrument of attraction and cooptation in international relations?

How powerful is soft power?

What is the difference between hard and soft power?

How manageable is soft power? Who wields it?

How can soft power be measured?

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Why measure?If it can be measured it can and will be managed

What to measure?The best measure of the soft power would be the results obtained by such initiatives. We can measure the amount of foreign students in the country’s universities or the box office of its films abroad, but how do these impacts are going to affect policies and politics is a hard question.

So what can we do?As the contextual-dependent interactions are almost impossible to measure, most researchers utilize either of the two main approaches:

Sociology or statistics

– Sociological methods were refined by Simon Anholt and rely on massive polls on one country’s image in another

– Statistical methods treat soft power as a resource and measure either a country’s capability to produce soft power or its direct results

How can soft power be measured:Country Brands Index

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Top 10 in 2014:GermanyUnited StatesUnited KingdomFranceCanadaJapanItalySwitzerlandAustraliaSweden

Top 10 in 2013:United StatesGermanyUnited KingdomFranceCanadaJapanItalySwitzerlandAustraliaSweden

Simon Anholt developed the Nation Brands Index in 2005 as a way to measure the image and reputation of the world's nations, and to track their profiles as they rise or fall.

The studies poll nearly 20,000 people in 20 countries each year, asking more than 40 questions about their perceptions of 50 countries.

The nation brand is the sum of people’s perceptions of a country across six areas of national competence.

Russia has received the strongest criticism, as in previous years, Russia had shown upward momentum - but in the 2014 NBI study, it stands out as the only nation out of 50 to suffer a precipitous drop.  Overall Russia has slipped three places to 25th, overtaken by Argentina, China, and Singapore.

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IEMS researches the phenomenon of soft power concept and publishes annual “Soft Power Index” reports, measuring an increasingly popular concept in the context of emerging economies.

SOFT POWER

Global Integrity

Global Integration

Global Image

Freedom Index/Rule of Law/CO2

Emissions

Immigration/Tourism/University Ranking

TIME 100/Media/Olympics

Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO

3. RUSSIA 18.60With a small gain in its absolute score, Russia remains in 3rd place in the index rankings. On the negative side, rule of law declined, pollution worsened, and fewer foreigners decided to call Russia home. On the other hand, top Russian political and business leaders continued to appear in the international media, and tourism increased by 12%. With a heady 2013 of both progress and retreat, the outlook for Russia in the coming years is uncertain. (See below.)

How can soft power be measured:SKOLKOVO Soft Power Index

Central Asia: context

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Central Asia: context

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GDP in USD, current pricesbn

GDP per capita in USD, current prices

Populationmn

1992 2000 2014 1992 2000 2014 1992 2000 2014

Kazakhstan 2.875 18.292212.26

0168.645

1,230.491

12,183.513

17.048 14.866 17.422

Kyrgyzstan 0.920 1.368 7.402 207.784 277.9211,298.55

74.430 4.922 5.700

Tajikistan 0.291 0.991 9.242 52.622 158.5551,113.24

05.536 6.250 8.302

Turkmenistan

0.951 5.022 47.932 246.2111,081.65

38,270.53

63.861 4.643 5.796

Uzbekistan  3.571 13.717 62.619 167.182 550.7202,046.12

521.360 24.908 30.604

Central Asia: highlights

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Tajikistan civil war - The five-year civil war between the Moscow-backed government and the Islamist-led opposition, in which up to 50,000 people were killed and over one-tenth of the population fled the country, ended in 1997 with a United Nations-brokered peace agreement. Tajikistan's economy has never really recovered from the civil war, and poverty is widespread. The United Opposition brokered representation in government, but now they are being slowly pushed from the power.

Share of Russian speakers – Russian language was the unifying language for the region for more than century and a half, but now in most parts of the country it remains as a language for political, economic and academic elites. The countries of region can be divided into two groups – first is Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan with the share of Russian speakers comprising 84 and 49 percent of population, and the second is Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, where the shares are 41%, 33% and 18% respectively.

Kyrgyz revolutions – most of the countries in the region have been ruled by the old Soviet elite with long history of reelections, but Kyrgyzstan is an exception. Bishkek seen two revolutions in 10 years: Tulip revolution in 2005 and the second revolution in 2010.

Russian soft power in Central Asia:Goals

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Russia and the countries of the region share centuries of common history, culture, language and education which leads to grassroots connections

The region is actively involved in Russia-led integration efforts ranging from CSTO to EEU and in multilateral alliances like SCO

Apart from geostrategic interests, economic interdependence between Russia and Central Asian states is enormous: mutual borders more than 7,000 km long, trade partner with more than 30 bn USD annual trade flows, about 6 million citizens of Central Asia visit Russia for work or tourism annually, supplier of energy to the EU markets via Russian networks.

Russian is still the biggest soft power player in Central Asia

However Russian influence in the region was taken for granted for too long and no viable soft power strategy was formed

The recent goals of soft power strategy were to gain public support of the Eurasian Economic Union initiative

Russian soft power in Central Asia:Trends and instruments

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Russia has been a crucial actor in the region with uncontestable sway, however, the relations today are heavily dominated by the Soviet past with undertones of former metropoly towards colonies.

Public diplomacy: Active role of Rossotrudnichestvo, Russkiy Mir Foundation, Gorchakov Fund, Russian International Affairs Council and Eurasian Communication Center with heavy usage of “big Russian NGOs” instead of small and local

Language: Ethnic Russians prefer to move to Russia with Russian-speaking population slowly shrinking (only a minority of youth speaks Russian) and Latin alphabet phasing Russian from usage in Uzbekistan (and planned in Kazakhstan)

Development assistance: both through bilateral and multilateral mechanisms, however some highly specific plans were scrambled. Disaster relief and training, including medical assistance is also sought after in the region

Russian soft power in Central Asia:Trends and instruments

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Trade and investment: despite Russia losing the mantle of the most important trade partner of the region, Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union has the potential to boost trade flows.

Education: Russia hosts around 40 000 university students from the Central Asian states with Kazakhstan contributing 28 000 to this number

Citizenship: Russia is liberal with the norms it takes to be granted Russian citizenship rights and it boosts a naturalized citizen competitiveness in his home country

Media and the Internet: Russian media has wide reach in the region with Russian radio and TV broadcasters holding significant shares of the market. In addition, Russia launched Sputnik news service with broadcasts in regional languages. Russian social networks are more accessible and popular in the region than Facebook with many regional websites in Russian, even the RFERL broadcasts in national languages and in Russian, instead of English

Russian soft power in Central Asia:Limitations

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No coherent soft power strategy for the region and lack of coordination between various actors

Ukrainian crisis generates considerable anxiety in Central Asia and undermined some of the Russian efforts to build up a good image

So-called “Russian spring” boosted nationalism in the region

Economic difficulties in Russia strained the Eurasian economic union’s efforts to create a single market of goods and services

Russian opportunities to assist international development in the region is even smaller

A new generation of leaders to replace moderate or pro-Russian elites with Soviet upbreeding

Activization of other players stronger than Russian in major fields of soft power: finance, normative building, education and religion

Chinese soft power in Central Asia:Goals

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Until the beginning of 2000s Beijing’s strategy was to enhance economic cooperation and invest in the regional oil & gas industry to diversify energy supply chain and establish corporate beachheads in Central Asia

Now, China is the largest trade partner of the region with the numbers growing and strong corporate presence in the vital regional industries, most notably natural resources and infrastructure

China aims at strengthening its reputation by creating an image of a reliable economic and political partner in the region and using more soft power instrument in the region than ever before

Today one of the goals of China’s soft power in Central Asia is negating and downplaying anti-Chinese attitudes among the elite and the public

China is also aims at securing its economic clout in the region and paving the way for the Silk Road Economic Belt

Last, but not the least – stable and secure borders with the turbulent Xingjian

Chinese soft power in Central Asia:Trends and instruments

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Unlike the West, Chinese soft and financial power doesn’t come with political or human rights conditions.

Chinese companies are flexible when it comes to exact terms and Beijing tries to distance itself from the potentially delicate projects like the Tajikistan Dam in Zaravshan.

Three dimensions of the Chinese soft power strategy in the region:

Education – Chinese government increased the number of stipends for Central Asian students studying in China and is steadily increasing the number of exchange programs between universities. Kazakhstan alone sends over 7500 students yearly to China.

Confucius Institutes are expanding their network in the region. Chinese language is becoming more popular among students – 2000 students from Bishkek Humanities University study Chinese.

Chinese soft power in Central Asia:Trends and instruments

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Culture and media – Chinese culture and cuisine is closely linked to those of the region and Chinese government promotes these links. Chinese media outlets are also gaining audience in the region with People’s Daily, Xinhua, China Radio International and CCTV offices in the region.

Business – horizontal ties between business communities, overall Chinese economic influence and abundance of Chinese goods and services. The pragmatism of Chinese business men is often praised by Central Asians, and contrasted with indecision and broken promises, of their European and Russian counterparts.

Silk Road Economic Belt – a major project that combines all the positive elements from China’s image in the region: pragmatic, assisting in development, not imbued with human rights rhetoric, mutually beneficial and allowing to balance between key powers

However, successful economic expansion raises concerns about China

Chinese soft power in Central Asia:Limitations

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Historically, Central Asian nations were wary of China and the Chinese: there is even an old saying “Kara kytaj kaptasa, sary orys aekengdey bolar,” roughly translated as “when the black Chinese comes, red-haired Russian will be closer than a brother” or “the Chinese will strangle you with soft silk.”

This historical difficulties are hard to overcome and local nationalists voice concern regarding Chinese economic projects in the region

All the traits that form Central Asia are culturally Turkic and Soviet

Mandarin is hard to learn and despite the growing network of Confucius institute, for most of the Central Asian nationals the second language is either Russian or English

China struggles with creating an appealing global concept on par with the market democracy or Communism and resorts to regional megaprojects aimed at economic development

Other players: the United States

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A global player in soft powerWidespread use of NGOs, academic exchanges and other respectable instruments of influence

US strategy towards Central Asia is outdated – economic projects lack clarity and details, but military and political cooperation is growing. Until recently, the US aimed at securing the NDN and sought allies in the region with carrots and sticks (like Uzbekistan case in 2012).

Today the US is more concerned with Russia and China in the region than with Afghanistan and the regional security – Washington is wary of Russian and Chinese projects in the region

In addition, the US criticizes Central Asian governments and supports opposition – funding alternative media and NGOs and supporting non-systemic opposition to make the countries’ governments accountable to their own citizens

Other players: the EU

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EU interests in the region– “Security and stability” - the EU’s strategic interests in the region, with basically the

same reasons as the US– Nabucco pipeline - the need to diversify energy sources– Need to become a global actor

EU is not only a soft power actor but a normative power actor

EU established initial contact with the five Central Asian states in 1991, however, a special representative was appointed only in 2005. EU Central Asian strategy was adopted in 2007 and focused on several key areas: political dialogue, dialogue on human rights and cooperation on education, the rule of law, energy & transport, environment & water, threats & challenges that affect both sides and trade & economic relations

Soft power strategy: “Regional Strategy Paper for Assistance to Central Asia for the period 2007–2013”. This document also puts a clear focus on soft policy issues and identifies the rule of law, education, and the environment as the three main areas for intensified policy dialogue and enhanced cooperation.

For the period 2007–2013, a budget of $931 million was allocated for cooperation with Central Asia

Other players: Turkey

20Dina Malysheva, Russia and Turkey in Central Asia: Partnership or Rivalry?, RIAC

What are Turkey’s goals in Central Asia?Strengthening positions in Turkic-speaking Islamic region rich with resources

Soft power prevailsTurkey demonstrates an example of successful functioning of a secular political system with elements of Western-style democracy that managed to carry out market reforms in a society dominated by adherents of Islam. Major trend – common cultural, linguistic and religious grounds for cooperation while economic cooperation is slowing down

1992 – Turkish International Cooperation and Development Agency (TIKA) created to carry out economic and social programs in 30 countries, including Central Asia

1993 – TURKSOY (International Organization for the Joint Development of Turkic Culture and Art) established in Almaty

2008 - Parliamentary Assembly of Turkic-speaking Countries (TURKPA) created

2010 – establishment of Cooperation Council of Turkic Speaking States (among the projects is Turkic Council-Modern Silk Road)

Other players: Iran

21Irina Zviagelskaya, In Search of Support Points: Iran in Central Asia, RIAC

What are Tehran’s goals in Central Asia?Overcoming isolation and deriving economic benefits from economic ties with the booming region - breakthrough in Central Asia is a chance for Tehran

1990s – activization in the region with an emphasis on its ethnic and linguistic affinity with the culturally close Tajikistan

2000s – region-wide network of connections with weaker links in Kyrgystan and Uzbekistan and stronger relations with other countries

A mixture of cultural, religious and economic instruments:

– Tejen-Sarahs-Mashhad railway line, providing Central Asian states with access to the Persian Gulf

– SCO, OIC, ECO and SAARC economic organizations

– Plans to link the North-South Transport Corridor from Kazakhstan through Turkmenistan to Iran’s Golestan Province (up to 12 million tons of cargo annually)

Iran is thought as a strong and independent actor in the region who allows the CA states to maintain their multi-vector policy

Other players: Islamic State

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Other players: Islamic State

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IS militia volunteers from Russia and Central Asia, including high-ranking military commanders

Potential unification of radical Islam terrorist cells in the Khurasan region

IS is becoming more attractive than Russia and China

Potential for cooperation

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Common interests:

– Maintain stability and security in the region

– Counter other players’ attempts to violate the status quo

– Build a stable environment for trans-Eurasian projects

Political and economic match: Russia’s cultural and political influence in the region is still strong while China can devote unmatched resources to regional development

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