Sofia Workshop 8 June 2007 Modelling the impact of policy and measures with MURE: The Czech Republic Case study.

Sofia Workshop

8 June 2007

Modelling the impact of Modelling the impact of policy and measures with policy and measures with

MURE: MURE: The Czech Republic Case The Czech Republic Case

studystudy

ContentsContents

The methodological approachThe methodological approach

Results from the impact assessment of the Results from the impact assessment of the Czech Republic P&Ms in the household Czech Republic P&Ms in the household sectorsector

The methodological The methodological approachapproach

– The MURE tool allows to evaluate the ex ante or ex The MURE tool allows to evaluate the ex ante or ex post impact of P&Ms through a post impact of P&Ms through a bottom-up approachbottom-up approach

– The assessment is made measure by measure and The assessment is made measure by measure and the outputs are provided in terms of the outputs are provided in terms of energyenergy saved saved and and COCO22 avoided; avoided;

– For each country, the savings corresponding to the For each country, the savings corresponding to the application of the P&Ms, are evaluated by application of the P&Ms, are evaluated by measuring the impact of a “Policy scenario” with measuring the impact of a “Policy scenario” with respect to a “Reference scenario”.respect to a “Reference scenario”.

The “Reference scenario”The “Reference scenario”– The “Reference scenario” is defined as a simulation in

which the energy demand trend is calculated by

considering the main energy consumption drivers (e.g.

the demography and social drivers as measured by the

n° of households);

– It includes possible saturation trends in the drivers, and

could also comprise the residual impact of energy saving

measures implemented before the reference year, that is

the year from which the impact simulation exercise

starts.

The “Policy scenario”The “Policy scenario”

The “Policy scenario” refers to a scenario in which the energy demand development takes into account additional energy saving measures implemented after the reference year.

Setting the Policy scenarioSetting the Policy scenario

Measures’ Measures’ selectionselection

Measures’ Measures’ parameterizationparameterization CalculationCalculation Energy Energy

savingssavings

1°1° 4°4°3°3°2°2°

Measures’ Measures’ selectionselection

1°1°

MeasuresMeasuresIssuedIssued

BEFOREBEFOREReference yearReference year

MeasuresMeasuresIssuedIssuedAFTERAFTER

Reference yearReference year

Measures’ Measures’ parameterizationparameterization

2°2°

EstimationEstimationofof

PenetrationPenetrationRatesRates

EstimationEstimationofof

Energy savingsEnergy savingsgaingain

The Penetration rate concept

The penetration rate is provided by the product of two parameters:

The involved stock (the number of final users that, at the end of a given time period applies the measure) The penetration “speed” (the rate of diffusion of this measure in the involved stock along the considered time lag )

I nvolvedStock %

20 %

Measureissuing year

T=0P=0

Penetrat ion in theinvo lved s tock

100%

Measureending year

Tim e

Penetratio n ratioslo pe

T=Endin.S tk=20%

CalculationCalculation

3°3°

Energy Energy savingssavings

4°4°

ReferenceReference PolicyPolicy

The impact evaluation case The impact evaluation case studystudy

Measures’ selectionMeasures’ selection

CZECH REPUBLICCZECH REPUBLICCZ1CZ1 Minimum thermal insulation standardsMinimum thermal insulation standards

CZ2CZ2 Level of thermal energy demand according to Czech Level of thermal energy demand according to Czech standardsstandards

CZ3CZ3 Minimum efficiency standards for boilersMinimum efficiency standards for boilers

CZ4CZ4 Control systems for heatingControl systems for heating

CZ5CZ5 Periodic mandatory inspection of boilersPeriodic mandatory inspection of boilers

CZ6CZ6 Mandatory energy labelling of electrical appliancesMandatory energy labelling of electrical appliances

CZ7CZ7 Investment subsidies in the framework of Annual Investment subsidies in the framework of Annual Government ProgrammeGovernment Programme

CZ8CZ8 Subsidies for elaboration of energy audits in the framework Subsidies for elaboration of energy audits in the framework of Annual Government Programmeof Annual Government Programme

CZECH REPUBLICCZECH REPUBLIC::

− 8 measures of which 0 before the Reference year 8 measures of which 0 before the Reference year and 8 after and 8 after (but 5 considered within the simulation)

Measures’ selectionMeasures’ selection(3)(3)

It is worth noting that the reference scenario of the Czech Republic has been developed taking into account the autonomous penetration (up to2025) of the buildings having the insulation standards of the buildings built during the years 1990-2000

Measures’ selectionMeasures’ selection(4)(4)

Measures’ parameterizationMeasures’ parameterization

CZECH REPUBLICCZECH REPUBLIC::

− 3 measures described here3 measures described here

HUNGARYHUNGARY::

− 1 measure described here1 measure described here

in order to show howthe parameterization

has been pursued

CZ2 - Level of thermal energy CZ2 - Level of thermal energy demand according to Czech demand according to Czech

standardsstandardsThe measure deals with the refurbishment of

prefabricated buildings built during the years

60s and 70s and of other types of low

income buildings.

The refurbishment interventions are roughly

divided in two main groups: those without

and those with the windows substitution

CZ2 - Level of thermal energy CZ2 - Level of thermal energy demand according to Czech demand according to Czech

standardsstandards

Starting year:Starting year: 20062006

Ending year:Ending year: 20252025

Total stock:Total stock: 4.3 millions4.3 millions

% involved stock:% involved stock: 16% Insulation – 35% Windows replacement16% Insulation – 35% Windows replacement

Gain:Gain: 15% Insulation – 20% Windows replacement15% Insulation – 20% Windows replacement

Notes:Notes: The data comes from a study carried out in the The data comes from a study carried out in the city of Prague and from performed energy city of Prague and from performed energy audits on buildings (Enviros).audits on buildings (Enviros).

CZ3 - Minimum efficiency CZ3 - Minimum efficiency standards for boilersstandards for boilers

The measure specifies the minimum required efficiencies for electricity and heat production. For what concerns the household sector, it is addressed to all boilers using fossil fuels having heat capacity equal or greater than 200 kW.

These boilers represent the 46% of the total boiler stock of the Czech Republic, two thirds of which are fired by natural gas and one third by coal

Of this set, Enviros estimates that the 91% of the coal boilers and the 57% of the gas ones don’t meet the efficiency requirements established by the measure

Of this 91% of coal boilers, two thirds will be (an dare been) substituted by gas

boilers and one third by new coal boilers

CZ3 - Minimum efficiency CZ3 - Minimum efficiency standards for boilersstandards for boilers

Starting year:Starting year: 20022002

Ending year:Ending year: 20202020

Total stock:Total stock: 2.5 millions2.5 millions

% involved stock:% involved stock: Replacement 6,6%; Fuel substitution 0,5%Replacement 6,6%; Fuel substitution 0,5%

Gain:Gain: 14%14%

Notes:Notes: The involved stock of boilers has been obtained The involved stock of boilers has been obtained from the “Register of Sources of Air from the “Register of Sources of Air Pollution” (REZZO) – a database containing Pollution” (REZZO) – a database containing information about all heat sources with total information about all heat sources with total capacity above 200kW. (Enviros)capacity above 200kW. (Enviros)

CZ6 - Mandatory energy CZ6 - Mandatory energy labelling of electric applianceslabelling of electric appliances

The measure applies the EU Directives on the domestic appliances.

In our simulation we have taken into account the cold appliances (freezers and refrigerators) and washing machines.

To calculate the impact of this measure on the appliances stock we have foreseen that at the year 2025 the 100% of the stock will be composed by A+ and A++ appliances.

CZ6 - Mandatory energy CZ6 - Mandatory energy labelling of electric applianceslabelling of electric appliances

Starting year:Starting year: 20042004

Ending year:Ending year: 20252025

% involved stock:% involved stock: 100%100%

Gain:Gain: CalculatedCalculated

Notes:Notes: Data provided by other on going projects (i.e. Data provided by other on going projects (i.e. Ecodesign)Ecodesign)

Cold appliances

Washing machines

2001

A = 33,80%Sales

Specific energy cons

= 335.2 kWh/yr

A = 42,73% Sales

Specific energy cons

= 250 kWh/yr

2025

A+ and A+

+=100%Sales Target energy cons

= 158 kWh/yr

A+=100%Sales Target energy cons

= 180 kWh/yr

A 42,73%B 36,83%C 17,01%D 3,43%

Washing machines 2001 mix

A 33,80%B 45,34%C 19,74%

D,E,F 1,12%

Cold appliances 2001 mix

Total Energy Consumption Trends - Czech Republic

5800

6000

6200

6400

6600

6800

7000

7200

7400

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

years

kto

e

Reference Scenario Appliances Building codes

Refurbishment Boiler substitution Limit internal temperature

1.27 Mtoe

0.84 0.84 MtoeMtoe

About 0.87% About 0.87% Per yearPer year

Thermal Unitary Energy Consumption Trends - Czech Republic

1,00

1,05

1,10

1,15

1,20

1,25

1,30

1,35

years

toe/

dw

Reference Building codes Refurbishment Boiler substitution Limit internal temperature

Thermal Electric Total

2001 5051,4 1358,0 6409,4

2025 Reference 5471,5 1668,7 7140,2

2025 Policy 4376,9 1490,8 5867,7

Total Energy Consumption Trends Czech Republic

Energy savings per measure

0,18

1,05

1,27

0,26

0,73

0,00

0,20

0,40

0,60

0,80

1,00

1,20

1,40

Appliances Building codes Refurbishment Boiler substitution Limit internaltemperature

Mto

e

Energy Savings per measure - Czech Republic

Mtoe 0,22

Mtoe 0,32

Mtoe 0,47

Mtoe 0,18

Mtoe 0,08

Appliances

Building codes

Refurbishment

Boiler substitution

Limit internaltemperature

ConclusionsConclusions

By considering the energy savings per year, the Czech Republic is By considering the energy savings per year, the Czech Republic is rather close to ESD requirementsrather close to ESD requirements

For Czech Republic the way to fulfil the Directive requirementsFor Czech Republic the way to fulfil the Directive requirements is is probably the extension of the boiler standards to the low-size boilers probably the extension of the boiler standards to the low-size boilers (≤ 200 kW) together with a future tighten of the new building codes(≤ 200 kW) together with a future tighten of the new building codes

Moreover the enforcement of an extended auditing/information Moreover the enforcement of an extended auditing/information programme could be a further way to help increasing the family programme could be a further way to help increasing the family awareness to the energy efficiency issues and achieve still high awareness to the energy efficiency issues and achieve still high energy saving potentialsenergy saving potentials