Socio-technical transitions towards sustainability: Dynamics and policy implications Professor Frank Geels SPRU, University of Sussex 12 th International Conference on Industrial Technology Innovation (‘Heading towards a sustainable future’) Taipei, Taiwan, 25-26 August 2011
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Socio-technical transitions towards sustainability: Dynamics and policy implications Professor Frank Geels SPRU, University of Sussex 12 th International.
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Socio-technical transitions towards sustainability:
Dynamics and policy implications
Professor Frank GeelsSPRU, University of Sussex
12th International Conference on Industrial Technology Innovation (‘Heading towards a sustainable future’)
Taipei, Taiwan, 25-26 August 2011
Structure
1. Introduction
2. Multi-level perspective
3. Policy implications (and dilemmas)
4. Relevance for Taiwan
5. Concluding comments
1. Introduction: Green growth and green economy are hot topics
Green growth/economy entails
“systemic changes across the entire economy” (OECD, 2011: 16)
“fundamental rethinking of our approach to the economy” (UNEP, 2011: 38)
“business as usual would consign us to gradual decline” and that “it is the time to the bold and ambitious” (Europe 2020 Strategy)
(Radical) innovation is crucial.
But green growth reports traditional economics.
1) Neo-Keynesian:a) Increase public and private investments in green technology
Poor understanding of radical innovationNo explicit innovation policy, industry policy
Goals
1. Develop better understanding of radical innovation and (socio-technical) transitions
2. More specific policy proposals
2. Multi-level perspective on transitions
Focus on socio-technical systems
Socio- technical systemfor transportation
Culture and sym bolicm eaning (e.g . Freedom , ind ividuality)
Regulations and po licies(e.g. traffi c ru les,parking fees,em ission standards, car tax)
Road in frastructureand traffi c system(e.g. lights, signs)
Vehicle (artefact)
M arkets and user practices(m obility patterns, driver preferences)
I ndustry structure (e.g. car m anufacturers,suppliers)
M aintenance and d istribution netw ork (e.g. repair shops, dealers)
Fuel infrastructure (o il com panies, petro l stations)
Organizational field-analysisS up p ly ch ain : * m a te r ia l su p lie r s * co m p o n e n t su p p lie r s * m a c h in e s u p p lie rs
U sers
P ro duc tion ,indu stry :* f irm s* e n g in ee r s , d e s ig n e r s
R esearch :* u n iv e rs itie s* te c h n ic a l in s ti tu te s* R & D la b o ra to r ie s
P o licy, pub lic au thoritie s :* E u ro p e a n C o m m is s io n , W T O , G AT T* G o v e rn m e n t , M in is tr ie s , P a r lia m e n t* L o c a l a u th o ri tie s a n d e x e c u t iv e b ra n c h e s
S oc ieta l g ro ups:(e .g . G re e n p e a c e ,m e d ia , b ran c ho rg a n is a tio n s)
Multi-level perspective
N ich es(n ove lty )
S ystem /reg im e
L an dscap e
In crea sing s truc tu ra tion o f ac tiv ities in lo ca l p rac tices
Social: a)cognitive routines make ‘blind’ (beliefs) b)alignment between social groups (‘social capital’) c)user practices, values and life styles
Politics and power:
a) Opposition to change from vested interests
b) Uneven playing field + policy networks
Analytical problem:
How to overcome lock-in?
N ich es(n ove lty )
S ystem /reg im e
L an dscap e
In crea sing s truc tu ra tion o f ac tiv ities in lo ca l p rac tices
•Protection from mainstream market selection•Nurturing of ‘hopeful monstrosities’ (Mokyr)•Carried by entrepreneurs and small social networks
Time
Product performance Invading product
Established product
T (1) T (2)
Niches for radical innovation
Socio-technical landscape
•Exogeneous backdrop of action•Heterogeneous
T im eT im e
L a n d sc a p e d e v e lo p m e n ts p u t p re s su re o n e x is tin g re g im e , w h ic h o p e n s u p , c re a tin g w in d o w s o f o p p o rtu n ity fo r n o v e lt ie s
S o c io - te c h n ic a l re g im e is ‘d y n a m ic a lly s ta b le ’ .O n d iffe re n t d im e n s io n s th e re a re o n g o in g p ro c e ss e s
N e w c o n f ig u ra tio n b re a k s th ro u g h , ta k in ga d v a n ta g e o f ‘w in d o w s o f o p p o rtu n ity ’ . A d ju s tm e n ts o c c u r in so c io - te c h n ic a l re g im e .
E le m e n ts a re g ra d u a lly l in k e d to g e th e r,a n d s ta b ilis e in a d o m in a n t d e s ig n .In te rn a l m o m e n tu m in c re a se s .
S m a ll n e tw o rk s o f a c to rs s u p p o r t n o v e lt ie s o n th e b a s is o f e x p e c ta tio n s a n d fu tu re v is io n s .L e a rn in g p ro c e s se s ta k e p la c e o n m u ltip le d im e n s io n s .D iffe re n t e le m e n ts a re g ra d u a lly l in k e d to g e th e r in a se a m le ss w e b .
N e w s o c io - te c h n ic a lre g im e in f lu e n c e s la n d s c a p e
Tech n o log ica ln ich es
S oc io -tech n ica l’lan d scap e
S oc io -tech n ica lreg im e
Tec hno logy
M arke ts, u se r p re ferences
C u ltu reP o lic y
Scienc eIndustry
E x te rn a l in f lu e n c e s o n n ic h e s(v ia e x p e c ta tio n s a n d n e tw o rk s)
3. Policy implications and dilemmas
Two-pronged strategy:
1)Niche-level: Stimulate radical innovation
2) Pressure on regime: taxes, regulations, incentives
1) Strategic Niche Management (SNM)
• Radical innovations deviate from regime, and are often pioneered by