SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED SMMT, the ‘S’ symbol and the ‘Driving the motor industry’ brandline are trademarks of SMMT Ltd European Light Commercial Vehicle Production Outlook – SMMT Open Forum Ian Henry, AutoAnalysis March 30, 2011
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SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED SMMT, the ‘S’ symbol and the ‘Driving the motor industry’ brandline are trademarks of SMMT Ltd
European Light Commercial Vehicle Production Outlook – SMMT Open Forum
Ian Henry, AutoAnalysis
March 30, 2011
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 2
5 categories of Light Commercial Vehicles made in Europe Microvans Small vans
Medium vans Large vans Pick-up trucks
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 3
Market dominated by joint product development & manufacturing arrangements
• Traditionally c2-2.5mn LCVs made in Europe pa, incl. commercial versions of cars• Market supplied almost entirely with local production – limited imports• Alliances are a key feature of market, with some VMs having >1 alliance:
• Fiat with PSA, and with GM• PSA with Fiat, and Mitsubishi • Renault with GM, Nissan and Mercedes• Mercedes with VW and Renault …
• Over 1/3 European LCVs supplied through alliances• 5 main segments:
• Microvans, eg Peugeot Bipper• Small vans, eg Ford Transit Connect• Medium vans, eg Vauxhall Vivaro• Large vans, eg Fiat Ducato• Pick-up trucks, eg Nissan Navarra
• VW adding pick-up production to European offering – the first European VM to make a purpose-built pick-up
• Chinese, through Chery and Great Wall, will add LCV production in Europe
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 4
LCV Production in Europe, 2007-2015
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Years
Un
its
Skoda
Volkswagen
Dacia
Nissan
Renault
PSA
LDV
Hyundai-Kia
GM
Ford
Fiat
Daimler
Significant dip in 2009 production – recovery unlikely to exceed 2007 peak; some PSA/Renault/Fiat production shifting to South America and Russia …
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 5
Daimler• Currently has two vans, Viano/Vito medium van made in Spain, and Sprinter large
van made in Germany
• Sprinter also supplied to Volkswagen as Crafter and has been supplied to Dodge
and Freightliner in low volume for US market
• Will source Mercedes version of Kangoo from Renault to give it a small van –
previous offering in small vans (Vaneo based on A-class) was not a success
• Recently announced a production JV with GAZ in Russia, to make Sprinter for local
market:
• Timing to be confirmed
• Initial volume 25,000 pa
• This will be Mercedes’ initial route into Russia; car production in Russia not
currently scheduled
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 6
Fiat
• Widest range of LCVs, mostly made in JVs with PSA:
• Microvans: Fiat Fiorino, made by Tofas in Turkey, JV with PSA
• Small van: Fiat Doblo, made by Tofas; will build version for Opel/Vauxhall
under contract
• Medium van: Fiat Scudo, made by Sevel Nord, French-based arm of PSA JV
• Large van: Fiat Ducato, made by Sevel Sud, Italian-based arm of PSA JV
• Iveco Daily: heavy duty large van, made in Italy and Spain
• Production in Russia highly likely in new Fiat factory, to replace low volume
kit production at local assemblers
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 7
Ford
• Only major European VM without an alliance in LCVs• Transit van is, arguably, the most iconic van in Europe, certainly in UK:
• Mostly now made in Kocaeli, Turkey; major investment for new model – crosses medium and large van sub-segments
• Limited production of chassis-cabs in UK
• Transit Connect small van currently make in Turkey:• Production to shift to Romania
• Transit Connect is one of three candidates to be next New York City taxi:
• Could boost new model production in Craiova, or lead to US production
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 8
GM
• Heavily reliant on Renault for most of its presence in LCVs:• Medium Vivaro van made in joint development and manufacturing
programme with Renault; production of new model secured for Luton, saving the factory, starting in 2013; but new van programme will only see Vauxhall/Opel models made in Luton – no Renaults or Nissans
• Large Movano van sourced on OEM basis from Renault (rebadged version of Master)
• Still makes own small van: Combo, based on Corsa:• However, for new model, GM is switching Combo van replacement
to a modified version of Fiat Doblo from the Tofas plant in Turkey
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 9
PSA
• Mix of own vehicle programme and JVs with Fiat
• Microvan: Citroen Nemo/Peugeot Bipper, made by Tofas in Turkey, JV
with Fiat
• Small van: Citroen Berlingo/Peugeot Partner, self-developed
programme, made in Spain; will add EV version with Mitsubishi electric
powertrain; CKD arrangement in Turkey, full production also in Brazil –
both leading to fall in Spanish production
• Medium van: Citroen Jumpy/Peugeot Expert, made by Sevel Nord,
French-based arm of Fiat JV
• Large van: Citroen Jumper/Peugeot Boxer, made by Sevel Sud, Italian-
based arm of Fiat JV
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 10
Renault-Nissan-Dacia
• Renault:
• Small van: Kangoo, formerly supplied to Nissan as Kubistar, also to
be supplied to Mercedes (name unknown)
• Medium van: Trafic, currently made in Spain and UK, switching to
France for new model; joint development programme with GM
• Large van: Master, also supplied to GM and Nissan on OEM basis
• Nissan now going down a partially independent path in LCVs:
• Formerly sourced all European vans from Renault
• But Nissan Spain now making own small-medium van (NV200) and
will also make new pick-up truck
• Dacia: new factory in Morocco will add small van from 2013 … details
awaited
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 11
• Small van: Caddy, made in Poland, based on old Golf platform
• Medium van: Transporter, mostly made in Germany, with
chassis cab versions made in Poland; also made in minibus and
coach versions in Germany
• Large van: Crafter sourced from Mercedes on OEM basis
• Pick-up truck: developed Amarok for South American market;
will add European production in 2012, the first European VM to
make a purposed-designed pick-up in Europe
• Skoda also makes low volume Praktik van, based on Fabia, mostly
for domestic market
VW group
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 12
In summary … European LCV production ...
• Is characterised by joint production arrangements, some full JVs (Fiat-PSA),
some pure OEM supply (Mercedes for VW, Renault for Mercedes)
• Will see more alliances like these in the years ahead
• Is dominated by European brands – Nissan apart, the Japanese have largely
stayed away from this market; and probably will stay away, because of
entrenched nature of European suppliers and better opportunities elsewhere
• Chinese will appear at the margins, in small vans and cheap pick-up trucks,
while Hyundai will aim for a slice of Turkish/Near East market with a Turkish