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Michael H. Glantz, Director Center for Capacity Building Senior Scientist, NCAR Societal Aspects of High-Impact Weather and Climate: The need for early warnings in Asia and the Pacific (and everywhere else) UNU Global Seminar Interactions: People & the EnvironmentOkinawa 19-22 December 2007
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Aug 31, 2018

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Page 1: Societal Aspects of High-Impact Weather and Climate: … · 2017-06-23 · Societal Aspects of High-Impact Weather and Climate: ... Liaoning Peninsular before and after sandstorm

Michael H. Glantz, DirectorCenter for Capacity BuildingSenior Scientist, NCAR

Societal Aspects of High-Impact Weather and Climate: The need for early warnings in Asia and the Pacific (and everywhere else)

UNU Global Seminar“Interactions: People & the Environment”

Okinawa19-22 December 2007

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Aspects of Climate

• Climate variability• Climate fluctuations• Climate change

• New global climate state• Extreme events

• Seasonality

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Climate Change Impacts on the United States, USGCRP, 2000

Understanding the physical Climate System

Understanding its components

Society is NOW a component !

The Global Climate System

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Explaining Climate Science

n Understand the climate system

n Understand its components

n Society is a component

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High impact events are a worldwide problem

n Every part of globe can be affected

n Frequency, location, impacts and timing vary

n Impacts have a cascade effect

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Superstorms, a new extreme?

n Superstorm 1993 (North America)n Hurricane Mitch 1998 (Central America)n SuperTyphoon Maemi 2003 (Korea)n Super Dust Storm 2002 (China)n Super-cyclone Sidr 2007 (Bangladesh)n SuperTyphoon Wipha 2007 (China)n “El Nino of the Century” 1997-98 (Global)

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No definition of “Superstorms”

n Storm could be SUPER, because of …

n the level of death and destructionn the impact on the economyn perceived as opposed to actual severityn an exaggerated forecastn media hype

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Something new to worry about?

n A season of “Superstorms”

n The 2005 tropical storm season

n The 2004 tropical storm season

n In the Atlanticn 4 hurricanes in

Florida

n In the Pacificn 10 typhoons in

Japan

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Foreseeability

n Consider the concept of foreseeability

n A qualitative version of probability

n Borrowed from legal profession

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Foreseeability of superstorms

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Re-thinking high impact weather and climaten More high impacts

with a warmer atmosphere?

n Successive storms close in time can have the same damage as a single superstorm

n It is possible to have a season of “superstorms”

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Characteristics of Superstorm ‘93

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SuperCyclone Orissa 1999 (India)

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Orissa cyclone devastation ‘99

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Super Typhoon Maemi September 3-13, 2003

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Super Typhoon Maemi

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Weblines for Super-Typhoon Maemi

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Maemi destruction 2003

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Typhoon Man-Yi (July 13, 2007)

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Super Sandstorm 2002(in Northern China)

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Beijing, Forbidden City

Liaoning Peninsular before and after sandstorm

Beijing commuters

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High Impact Climate:1997-98 El Niño of the 20th

Century

El Niño is a High Impact Climate episode that catalyzes the onset of High Impact Weather events

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Ocean temperature profile, equatorial Pacific during the 1997-98 El Niño of the century

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Impacts That Generally Accompany El Niño Events

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El Niño-related fires & haze1997-98

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Concerns About Climate Change

n Some Changes Can Be Expectedn Others Cannot Be Anticipated

n Types of surprises:n Expectable, unexpectablen Timingn Location

n Surprisesn Climate

n “Superstorms”n Climate-related

n Droughts, floods, fires, infectious disease outbreaks, e.g., “events of the century”

n Antarctic ice disintegrationn Widespread food shortages

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Extremes will changein a WARMER climate

Extremes such as typhoons, floods, droughts, fires, heat waves and disease outbreaks

Summer 2003

53,000 dead

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Demographic Changes affect severity of climate impacts

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EWSs more important than some governments might realize

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Highlights about early warning systems

EWS are more important than most governments realize

n People disagree about each word in EWS n (early, warning, system)

n Early warnings are politically sensitive

n One EWS does not fit all users’ needs

n EW is a risky as well as a thankless jobn “Success has many fathers. Failure is an orphan”n People recall failed warnings more than successful ones

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Highlights about High Impact Events & Superstorms

n “Superstorms” is an emerging category of high impact events.

n Decision makers need to realize the value to society of early warnings of high-impact hydro-meteorological events.

n Share experiences of coping with high impact events across political borders, cultures and continents.

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