following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk Examining the truth behind the myth of the 'the Monstrous Army on the March' Dylan Kneale & Heather Joshi Institute of Education Social Polarisation in the timing of First Birth
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following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
Examining the truth behind the myth of the 'the Monstrous Army on the March'
Dylan Kneale & Heather Joshi
Institute of Education
Social Polarisation in the timing of First Birth
following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
Background I Recognition that rates of transition to parenthood are
decreasing - Men and women are postponing parenthood or avoiding parenthood altogether.
Known patterns of social polarisation in age at first birth. Early parenthood associated with a range of negative predictive characteristics and outcomes for parents and children.
Recent interest has focussed upon role of education in determining rates of transition to parenthood.
In particular, education differentials have been isolated as markers of increasing polarisation in age at first birth.
following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
Background II
following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
Background & Aims (Wolf): Graduate women = 'the Monstrous Army on the
March' What about graduate men – monstrous army still marching? Focus has been on increasing polarisation and rising
childlessness – but several different scenarios possible In addition are differentials caused by different sample
composition within groups, postponement or genuine decreased levels of transition?
Aims: Explore polarisation within and between two birth cohorts Examine the situation for males – increasing polarisation
too? Examine some of the determinants of fertility differentials
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Data I Analysis will use data from two British Birth Cohorts –
National Child Development Study (NCDS, 1958) and the British Cohort Survey (BCS70, 1970).
Both studies began as a census of all UK births in a week, with additions in childhood waves.
In total, data for 18,558 and 18,731 collected at some point for NCDS and BCS70 respectively.
Attrition has affected both studies, with sample sizes at the last wave of data collection totalling around 9,500 for both.
However, population estimates of fertility transition appear consistent with external data (for women)
Comparison of Birth Cohort Motherhood Rates with National Statistics estimates for England and Wales
1958 National Statistic1958 NCDS1970 National Statistics1970 BCS70
following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
Data II1965
NCDS (Age 7) 1969
NCDS (Age 11)
1970 BCS70 Birth
1974 NCDS
(Age 16)
1975 BCS70 (Age 5)
1981 NCDS
(Age 23)
1980 BCS70
(Age 10)
1986 BCS70
(Age 16)
1991 NCDS
(Age 33)
1996 BCS70
(Age 26)
2000 NCDS
(Age 42)
2000 BCS70
(Age 30) 2004
BCS70 (Age 34)
2004 NCDS
(Age 46) 1958 NCDS Birth
following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
Changes in Sample Composition Twelve year gap between cohorts has meant both were born
into very different British societies (Wadsworth, Ferri et al. 2003). In particular, large changes in educational achievement.
BCS70
Intermediate Qualifications,
59%
Graduate Level, 36%
No Qualifications,
6%
NCDS
Graduate Level, 28%
No Qualifications
, 13%
Intermediate Qualifications
, 59%
following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
Entry into parenthood: Overall cohort populations
Similar proportions of early parents exist in both cohorts. Differences open up in early and mid twenties so that by 34 years:
Gender ♂ ♀Cohort
NCDS (N =
7,142)
BCS70 (N =
5,862)
NCDS (N = 7,034)
BCS70 (N = 6,062)
Parents at Age 20 years 3.9% 3.2% 12.8% 10.1%Parents at Age 25 years 28.2% 16.6% 41.4% 29.7%
Parents at Age 34 years 68.0% 53.2% 77.9% 68.9%
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Highest educational level as a marker of polarisation
Qualifications at age 33/34 years ♂ ♀
Tertiary Level
NCDS (N = 1,727)
BCS70 (N = 2,108)
NCDS (N = 1,550)
BCS70 (N = 2,301)
Parents at Age 22 years 2.8% 2.0% 1.7% 7.3%
Parents at Age 34 years
61.4% 44.2% 64.6% 57.7%
IntermediateNCDS
(N = 3,261)BCS70
(N = 2,511)NCDS
(N = 3,459)BCS70
(N = 2,716)
Parents at Age 22 years 10.6% 8.0% 23.0% 20.8%
Parents at Age 34 years
69.9% 57.2% 80.6% 75.6%
NoneNCDS
(N = 686)BCS70
(N = 285)NCDS
(N = 824)BCS70
(N = 245)
Parents at Age 22 years 21.4% 15.1% 50.1% 52.7%
Parents at Age 34 years
71.7% 60.4% 88.0% 81.3%
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Predicting future trends
Numerous different approaches for predicting future trends based on existing levels of polarisation. Five approaches used in the next part:
1. NCDS parenthood2. Postponed NCDS parenthood3. Flight from parenthood4. Covariate specific flight from parenthood5. Covariate specific postponed flight from parenthood (!)….and bringing in intentions later.
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BCS70 Tertiary Qualified Males: CovariateSpecific Postponed Flight From Parenthood
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Results III: Intermediate and No Qualifications
Cohort and Projection Method
Intermediate Qualificati
ons
No Qualificati
ons
♂ ♀ ♂ ♀Childle
ss at 45
Childless at 45
Childless at 45
Childless at 45
NCDS 20.5%
13.9%
24.3%
10.5%
BCS70 – NCDS Parenthood Rates 29.8%
18.0%
32.0%
16.7%
BCS70 – Postponed NCDS Parenthood Rates
21.7%
13.5%
24.1%
11.0%
BCS70 – Flight from Parenthood 35.0%
19.7%
33.9%
17.6%
BCS70 – Covariate Specific Flight from Parenthood
35.0%
19.6%
34.3%
17.7%
BCS70 – Covariate Specific Postponed Flight from Parenthood
28.5%
15.5%
27.9%
13.1%
following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
Increasing rates of polarisation? Distinctive patterns of parenthood based on educational
achievement in both cohorts. For women, relative proportions entering motherhood by highest
qualification level expected to stay constant – childlessness expected to rise gradually among all groups.
For men, gap in fatherhood rates between education levels is projected to change in some scenarios.
Gap between tertiary qualified and males with no and intermediate qualifications could widen–myth of monstrous women replaced by monstrous male graduates?
Gap between males with no and intermediate qualifications could narrow.
following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk