Social and Economic Trends in Missouri Advanced Leadership Seminar March 31, 2010 Lake of the Ozarks, Missouri Bill Elder PhD, Director Office of Social.

Social and Economic Trends in Missouri

Advanced Leadership Seminar

March 31, 2010

Lake of the Ozarks, Missouri

Bill Elder PhD, DirectorOffice of Social & Economic Data Analysis (OSEDA)University of Missouri

• Data Data

• Information Information

• Knowledge Knowledge

• WisdomWisdom

“The construction of knowledge involves the orderly loss of information, not it’s mindless accumulation.”

-- Kenneth Boulding

Http://WWW.OSEDA.MISSOURI.EDU

OSEDA collaborates with partners in the analysis of social and economic data in ways that contribute to improvements in the well-being of people, enterprises and communities.

OSEDA…

Challenging Times….

Challenging Times…. In Missouri

March 5, 2010State Releases February 2010 General Revenue Report

State Budget Director Linda Luebbering announced todaythat 2010 fiscal year-to-date net general revenue collectionsdeclined 12.7 percent compared to fiscal year 2009, from$4.83 billion last year to $4.22 billion this year.  Net general revenue collections for February 2010decreased by 14.6 percent compared to those forFebruary 2009, from $393.1 million to $335.6 million.

Challenging Times…. In Missouri Communities

Greene 7.9Missouri 9.5

Longer term TRENDS…

Total Population 2009

World: 6.8 Billion

U.S.: 307 Million

Mo.: 5,987,580

Change in Population By State2000 – 2008

Change in Population By State 2000 – 2008 Total Population 2009

World: 6.8 Billion

U.S.: 307 Million

Mo.: 5,987,580

Missouri 381,515 6.8%

US 24,834,593 8.8%

**

* **

*

U.S. Increase 24.8 Million (8.8%)

Six States account for 55%

Using the latest 2009Population Estimates to make projections for2010 -- Missouri retainsthe 9th

The December estimatesshow Arizona growing alittle less rapidly…

But, migration is beingimpacted by the recession, and “Complete Count” issues may make the difference.

The Trends are Diverse: Regions within Regions

Male FemaleMale Female

Population Pyramids of MissouriPercent of Total Population2000 2020

TRENDS…

0

5

10

15

20

Per

cen

t

1990 2000 2010 2020

Year

Percent Missouri Population Age 65+: 1990-2020

SOURCE: Census Bureau/NCHS. Projection algorithm, programming by OSEDA Chart Prepared by: University of Missouri Extension, Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis24March2006

TRENDS…

Quality of Life

Quality of Life

Workforce Issues

Source: DESE, 2009 School Data

6,808 White

4,535 Black

The Number of Missouri High School Dropouts Increased by 3,162 or 36% from 2004 to 2008

The Wrong…. “Race to the Top”

Critical Social and Demographic Factors

Turning the wrong way…

Profound interrelationships with education and poverty

Adolescent mothers have high probabilities of raising their children in poverty. More than 40 percent of teenage moms report living in poverty at age 27 (Moore et al. 1993).

The rates are especially high among black and Hispanic adolescent mothers, more than half of whom end up in poverty

$0 $300 $600 $900 $1,200 $1,500 $1,800 $2,100

Stop out

Drop out

Graduate

First Time Student

Transfer Student

Continuing Student

Readmitted Student

$1,164

$1,488

$1,610

$1,397

$1,492

$1,731

$1,877

2007Q4-2008Q3

Average Wage for Missouri High School Graduates

Non-College Enrolled

College Enrolled

Returns to Education

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3

Wage Record Quarter

Percent of Missouri High School Dropouts Not in Missouri Wage Records by Quarter

20073 Dropout20074 Dropout20081 Dropout20082 Dropout

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

Associates Degree

Bachelors Degree

Masters Degree

Doctorate Professional Degree

$4,673 $4,582

$7,145

$10,877$12,315

$5,207 $5,575

$9,214

$13,322

$10,515

Average Wage (2008Q3) for Missouri College Graduates by Gender

Female

Male

Liberal Arts

Visual and Performing Arts

Security Professions

Communication, Technologies

Business Management

Engineering Technologies

Computer Science

Industrial Arts

Health Professions

$3,601

$3,693

$3,934

$4,298

$4,454

$6,254

$6,704

$7,627

$8,203

Average Wage (2008Q3) for College Graduates -Associates Degree Completers by Subject

Philosophy

Visual and Performing Arts

Ethnic and Area Studies

English

History

Psychology

Foreign Languages

Education

Biological & Medical

Parks and Recreation

Communication, Journalism

Social Studies

Family and Consumer

Interdisciplinary Studies

Physical Science

Public Admin

Security Professions

Natural Resources

Agriculture

Architecture

Communication, Technologies

Math and Statistics

Liberal Arts

Business Management

Engineering Technologies

Computer Science

Health Professions

Engineering

$2,953

$3,415

$3,588

$3,611

$3,701

$3,708

$3,827

$3,851

$3,943

$4,167

$4,458

$4,535

$4,557

$4,635

$4,787

$4,884

$5,013

$5,040

$5,433

$5,555

$5,658

$5,797

$6,144

$6,459

$8,250

$8,902

$8,949

$11,197

Average Wages (2008Q3) for College Graduates-Bachelors Degree Completers by Subject

2010 Census

• Mother of all address lists (enumeration)• Only “Short Form” in 2010 (the count)• Reapportionment and redistricting file by the end of

2010.• Representation and Resource Allocation• Issues: “Disproportionate Undercount”• Hence: “Complete Count” Programs• Instead of “Long Form” we have:

– “The American Community Survey”

• Data Data • Information Information • Knowledge Knowledge • WisdomWisdom• LEADERSHIPLEADERSHIP

Understanding and preparing the Understanding and preparing the environmentenvironment

Civic Engagement….“You are entitled to your own opinion, but you are not entitled to you own facts.” Senator Simpson or Senator Kennedy

OSEDA…

Knowledge Systems Rules of Evidence Rules of Logic

Social and Economic Trends in Missouri

Advanced Leadership Seminar

March 31, 2010

Lake of the Ozarks, Missouri

Bill Elder PhD, DirectorOffice of Social & Economic Data Analysis (OSEDA)University of Missouri