SMC Global Weekly News Letter (Wisemoney)

WISE M NEY

®HAPPY GURU GOBIND SINGH JAYANTI

7TH JANUARY, 2014

Bra

nd

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27

2014: Issue 404, Week: 6th - 09th January A Weekly Update from SMC(For private circulation only)

(Saurabh Jain)

Contents

Equity 4-7

Derivatives 8-9

Commodity 10-13

Currency 14

IPO 15

Fixed Deposit 16

Mutual Fund 17-18

EDITORIAL STAFF

Editor Saurabh Jain

Executive Editor Jagannadham Thunuguntla

+Editorial Team

Dr. R.P. Singh Nitin Murarka

Vandana Bharti Tejas Seth

Sandeep Joon Dinesh Joshi

Vineet Sood Shitij Gandhi

Dhirender Singh Bisht Subhranil Dey

Parminder Chauhan Ajay Lakra

Mudit Goyal

Content Editor Kamla Devi

Graphic Designer Pramod Chhimwal

Research Executive Sonia Bamba

REGISTERED OFFICES:

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lobal markets are seeing profit booking with the onset of New Year after

posting smart gains in CY 2013. There may be a case that markets may Gbecome nervous especially emerging economies on the back of continuous

improvement in the U.S. economy suggesting that the pace of bond purchase tapering

by the Federal Reserve would be higher than earlier perceived.

China's Purchasing Managers' Index for the non-manufacturing sector came lower in the

month of December to 54.6 from 56 in November suggesting that the economy may

remain on lower growth trajectory for some more time. It is estimated that China has

grown at a pace of nearly 7.6% in the CY 2013.

Back at home, higher interest rates are one of the many factors that are putting

pressure on the Indian economic growth. It has become all the more important for

government to try and make each and every effort to control the alarming rise in both

consumer and headline inflation. It is to be noted that recently, with the onset of

winters, prices of vegetables have dropped heavily indicating lower consumer inflation

going forward.

Fiscal deficit reached 94% of the budgeted estimates in a period from April to

November, this fiscal. However, Finance Minister reiterated that he would stick to the

deadline of 4.8% and said that the government finances would improve in December, as

advance tax collection comes by 15th December. It is expected that either Finance

Minister would lower the plan expenditure by nearly Rs. 1 lakh crore or would switch the

subsidies outgo into next fiscal in order to adhere the budgeted fiscal deficit estimates.

Indian markets going forward would largely be guided by the earning season, as

investors would try to assess, what Indian corporate feels about the future growth

estimates.

On the commodities front, New Year celebration, investors may return to the market

and thus we can expect an increase in volume in near term. Some important data and

events may add some volatility in the market. Some of them are CPI, unemployment

change and unemployment rate of Germany, ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite,

change in nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment rate of US, CPI and New Yuan Loans of

China, Bank of England and European Central Bank rate Decision, unemployment rate

and net change in employment of Canada. Bullion counter is expected to continue last

week bounce as lower prices prompted the physical buying. Crude oil prices may remain

bearish as rise in the greenback and fear of Federal Reserve tapering exerted selling

pressure on the prices. Crude oil can move in the range of Rs. 5800-6200 in MCX and $93-

100 in NYMEX. Industrial metals may tap in range on the lack of fresh triggers.

From The Desk Of Editor

4

NOTES:

1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of "Morning Mantra ".

2) S1 & S2 indicate first support & second support respectively & R1 & R2 indicate first resistance and second resistance respectively.

3) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the stock. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.

TREND SHEET

Stocks Closing Trend Date Rate S1 R1 S2 R2 Cl.

Price Trend Trend S/l

Changed Changed

SENSEX 20888 UP 12.09.13 19317 20200 19800 19400

S&P NIFTY 6221 UP 12.09.13 5728 5850 5750 5780

CNX IT 9478 UP 18.07.13 7306 8900 8700 8500

CNX BANK 11183 UP 19.09.13 11149 11000 10600 10500

ACC 1098 DOWN 13.11.13 1041 1080 1100 1120

BHARTIAIRTEL 329 UP 12.09.13 329 340 330 320

BHEL 170 UP 05.09.13 138 160 155 148

CIPLA 392 DOWN 21.11.13 387 405 410 415

DLF 166 UP 26.12.13 171 160 155 150

HINDALCO 121 UP 29.08.13 107 115 110 105

ICICI BANK 1076 UP 12.09.13 951 1060 1020 1000

INFOSYS 3481 UP 18.07.13 2800 3300 3200 3100

ITC 315 DOWN 13.11.13 314 330 336 340

L&T 1036 UP 19.09.13 888 1020 980 950

MARUTI 1768 UP 19.09.13 1480 1700 1650 1620

NTPC 135 DOWN 02.01.14 135 144 147 150

ONGC 282 UP 31.10.13 294 280 270 265

RELIANCE 875 UP 12.09.13 875 850 840 830

TATASTEEL 419 UP 22.08.13 274 390 375 360

NEWS

DOMESTIC NEWS

Economy

• India's fiscal deficit has reached 94 percent of the annual budget target in the first eight months of the current financial year, ringing alarm bells and raising concerns that the government will likely overshoot its target of containing the deficit at 4.8 percent of GDP for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2014.

• According to the data from a survey conducted by Markit Economics and HSBC Bank, India's seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers' Index for the manufacturing sector dropped to 50.7 in December from 51.3 in November. However, the index has stayed above the no-change 50 mark, which separates growth from contraction, for the second month in a row.

• Output in India's eight core industries grew in November, after a decline in the previous month. The eight core industries' output rose 1.7 percent year-on-year, following a 0.6 percent fall in October. It was the smallest infrastructure output growth since June.

Realty & Infrastructure

• Hindustan Construction Company has announced that the company has received a letter of award from IRCON International for construction of one tunnel and two bridges between Aprinchala and Sumber stations on Dharam and Qazigund section of the Udhampur-Srinagar-Baramulla new broad gauge railway line project in Jammu & Kashmir for a project cost of `442.52 Crore.

Construction

• Pratibha Industries announced that its water management and building verticals have received orders worth `589.69 crore. The biggest order, valued at `224.80 crore, was from Gujarat Water Supply and Sewerage Board for construction of underground drainage system in some areas of Rajkot.

Oil & Gas

• Gujarat Gas Company based upon the Memorandum of Understanding executed between Gujarat Gas Company and Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation have executed gas supply contracts for supply of regassified LNG up to 0.65 million metric standard cubic metre (mmscmd) on “long term” basis upto 01 July 2025.

Capital Goods

• Alstom T&D India has been awarded three contracts worth over `168.7 crore to supply gas-insulated (GIS) and air-insulated (AIS) substation packages for West Bengal State Electricity Transmission Company Limited (WBSETCL)

• McNally Bharat Engineering Company has received an order for service & supply works of a water pre-treatment plant package for a power generation company for a value of ̀ 42.50 crores. The contract completion period is 30 months.

Retail

• V-Mart Retail has opened a new store at 26, Sulen Sarai, G.T. Road, Near Amit Deep Motors, Allahabad, Uttar Pradesh - 211001, with an area of 8090 sq. ft.

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

• US construction spending rose 1.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $934.4 billion in November from the revised October estimate of $925.1 billion. The increase in spending matched economist estimates.

• US Purchasing Managers Index edged down to 57.0 in December from 57.3 in November, although a reading above 50 till indicates growth in the manufacturing sector. The modest decrease by the index matched economist estimates.

• US initial jobless claims dipped to 339,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 341,000. The figure from the previous week was upwardly revised from the 338,000 originally reported.

• US consumer confidence index jumped to 78.1 in December from 72.0 in November. Economists had expected the index to climb to 76.8 from the 70.4 originally reported for the previous month.

• US pending home sales index inched up 0.2 percent to 101.7 in November after falling 1.2 percent to a downwardly revised 101.5 in October. Economists had been expecting the index to jump by about 1.5 percent.

• An index measuring non-manufacturing business activity in China posted a seasonally adjusted score of 54.6 in December. The headline figure remains comfortably above the boom-or-bust score of 50 that separates expansion from contraction, although the December reading is down sharply from 56.0 in November.

EX-DATE SYMBOL PURPOSE

6-JAN-14 WHEELS INTERIM DIVIDEND RS.4/- PER SHARE15-JAN-14 SIEMENS DIVIDEND - RS 5/- PER SHARE16-JAN-14 WALCHANNAG DIVIDEND - RE 0.40/- PER SHARE21-JAN-14 MINDTREE SECOND INTERIM DIVIDEND22-JAN-14 MPHASIS DIVIDEND - RS 17/- PER SHARE

BOARD MEETING SYMBOL PURPOSE

9-JAN-14 GEODESIC RESULTS/OTHERS10-JAN-14 COROMANDEL SCHEME OF AMALGAMATION10-JAN-14 SYNDIBANK PREFERENTIAL ISSUE10-JAN-14 INDUSINDBK RESULTS10-JAN-14 INFY RESULTS10-JAN-14 INDUSINDBK RESULTS11-JAN-14 CHEMFALKAL RESULTS13-JAN-14 CMC RESULTS13-JAN-14 EXIDEIND RESULTS14-JAN-14 NIITTECH RESULTS/OTHERS15-JAN-14 BAJFINANCE RESULTS15-JAN-14 BAJAJFINSV RESULTS15-JAN-14 BANKBARODA PREFERENTIAL ISSUE16-JAN-14 SOUTHBANK RESULTS16-JAN-14 MINDTREE RESULTS/DIVIDEND16-JAN-14 BAJAJHLDNG RESULTS16-JAN-14 BAJAJ-AUTO RESULTS16-JAN-14 AXISBANK RESULTS17-JAN-14 HDFCBANK RESULTS18-JAN-14 HFCL RESULTS19-JAN-14 CARERATING RESULTS20-JAN-14 ASIANPAINT RESULTS20-JAN-14 EMAMILTD RESULTS20-JAN-14 MIRCELECTR RIGHT ISSUE,RAISING FUNDS THROUGH DEBT INSTR.

FORTHCOMING EVENTS

®

5

BSE SENSEX GAINERS & LOSERS TOP (% Change) NSE NIFTY GAINERS TOP & LOSERS (% Change)

SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)

SMC Trend

SMC Trend

FMCGHealthcare

FTSE 100CAC 40

Auto BankRealty

Cap GoodsCons Durable

Oil & GasPower

NasdaqDow jonesS&P 500

NikkeiStrait times

Hang SengShanghai

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY (Equity) (` Crore)

ITMetal

Down SidewaysUp

SMC Trend

Nifty BSE Midcap Nifty JuniorSensex BSE Smallcap S&P CNX 500

GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)

®

-1.47 -1.44

-0.69

-0.03

-1.44-1.34

-1.60

-1.40

-1.20

-1.00

-0.80

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

Nifty Sensex BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap

Nifty Junior S&P CNX 500

-1.12

-2.29

-2.99

-0.99

-1.32

-0.42

-1.24

-0.82

-1.42

-1.61-1.68

-3.50

-3.00

-2.50

-2.00

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

Auto Index Bankex Cap Goods Index

Cons Durable Index

FMCG Index Healthcare Index

IT Index Metal Index Oil & Gas Index

Power Index Realty Index

0.69 0.79

0.42 0.39

-0.33-0.22

-0.51 -0.49

-1.18

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

Nasdaq Comp. Dow Jones S&P 500 Nikkei Strait Times Hang Seng Shanghai Comp.

FTSE 100 CAC 40

404.00

128.90

274.30

7.40

155.00

2.20 3.500.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

350.00

400.00

450.00

Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday

FII Activity MF Activity

0.36 0.28 0.22 0.160.02

-3.83-3.70

-2.96 -2.96 -2.95

-4.50

-4.00

-3.50

-3.00

-2.50

-2.00

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

H D F C Dr Reddy's Labs

Tata Motors TCS Coal India Larsen & Toubro

O N G C Cipla ICICI Bank M & M

2.10

0.40 0.35 0.34 0.29

-4.41

-3.89 -3.76-3.54 -3.47

-5.00

-4.00

-3.00

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

Power Grid Corpn

HCL Technologies

Dr Reddy's Labs

H D F C TCS Kotak Mah. Bank

Larsen & Toubro

Punjab Natl.Bank

O N G C B P C L

Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis

6

® Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1 year. Source: Company Website Reuters Capitaline

Face Value (`) 10.00

52 Week High/Low 116.95/86.70

M.Cap (` Cr.) 47200.10

EPS (`) 8.85

P/E Ratio (times) 11.52

P/B Ratio (times) 1.79

Dividend Yield (%) 2.80

Stock Exchange BSE

` in cr

Actual Estimate

FY Mar-13 FY Mar-14 FY Mar-15

Revenue 13,163.90 15,152.00 17,926.70

EBITDA 11,213.90 13,121.40 15,634.70

EBIT 7,786.10 9,998.50 11,673.30

Pre-tax Profit 5,749.80 6,584.10 7,664.50

Net Profit 4,286.80 4,815.80 5,559.50

EPS 9.26 9.40 10.78

BVPS 57.03 67.00 74.80

ROE 17.20 15.50 15.30

% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale GW ckm, 40000 MVA of substations and 4200 MW of •Power Grid Corporation Of India Limited inter regional capacities.

(PGCIL), a navaratna public sector undertaking •As principal electric power-transmission company under the ministry of power, is the country's of the country, it owns and operates 102109 central transmission utility (CTU). The company circuit kilometers of electrical transmission lines owns and operates more than 90% of India's inter- and 172 electrical substations with a total state and interregional electric power transformation capacity of 172378 MVA as end of transmission systems (ISTS). 30 September 2013.

•PGCIL has recently came out with follow-on •PGCIL connected the southern power grid to the public offer (FPO), with an issue size of Rs. 7083 National Electricity Grid. The move will facilitate crore at a price of Rs.90. The fresh issue in the easier transmit of power from surplus states in other offer was approx. `5417 crore, which would be regions to several power-deficient southern states.

Valuationused to meet the capital requirements for the The Company intends to continue to rapidly increase implementation of certain identif ied its capacity to maintain and grow its leadership transmission projects. The FPO got over position and remain as India's principal power subscribed. The FPO which was completed had transmission company. As at September 30, 2013, it has received strong response from investors.86 ongoing transmission projects in various stages of •During the Eleventh Plan the company has implementation. We expect the stock to see a price achieved its annual capex targets and invested target of `137 in one year time frame on one year `6656 crore, `8167 crore, `10617 crore, `12005 average P/E of 12.70x and FY15 (E) earnings of ̀ 10.78.crore and `17814 crore respectively during Fiscal

2008 to Fiscal 2012 against the corresponding targets of ̀ 6504 crore, ̀ 7624 crore, ̀ 10500 crore, `11900 crore and ̀ 17700 crore.

•The Company has maintained an average system availability of over 99% for its transmission system since Fiscal 2002. The company is implementing construction of a National Transmission Asset Management Centre ("NTAMC") and nine regional transmission asset management centres to oversee the remote operation of most of its substations and to create maintenance hubs to cater to the maintenance requirements of nearby groups of substations.

•For FY'14, the management targets to add 12000

P/E Chart

POWER GRID CORPORATION OF INDIA LIMITED CMP: 101.95 Upside: 34%Target Price: 137VALUE PARAMETERS

CHAMBAL FERTILISERS AND CHEMICALS LIMITED CMP: 39.80 Upside: 27%Target Price: 50

Face Value (`) 10.00

52 Week High/Low 71.95/30.60

M.Cap (` Cr.) 1656.52

EPS (`) 4.89

P/E Ratio (times) 8.14

P/B Ratio (times) 0.89

Dividend Yield (%) 4.77

Stock Exchange BSE

VALUE PARAMETERS

% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale manufacturers for setting up of new plants as well •Chambal Fertilisers manufactures and markets as for expansion and revamp of the existing ones.

fertilisers. Its other businesses comprise of yarn, •The Company has set up a Single Super Phosphate shipping and food processing. It has a fertilizer (SSP) production facility at Gadepan with a plants located at Gadepan in Kota district of capacity of 600 MT per day. There is a good Rajasthan, a textile mill at Baddi, Himachal potential for SSP business as there are only a few Pradesh and a food processing unit at Sonepat, big players in production of SSP. SSP is also used as a Haryana. It has an annual capacity to manufacture substitute to Di-Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) and 1.73 Million Metric Tonne (MMT) of urea. has very good potential in view of prevailing high

•The company intends to set up two urea retail prices of DAP.manufacturing plants of 1.3 mln tpa. The company Valuation

A good monsoon and the resultant increased demand is executing initial level studies for both projects. for agri inputs will help the company in the coming The projects are expected to raise the company's quarters. The company also has a good track record capacity to 4.33 mln tpa; both the projects will for paying dividend and has a high dividend yield. We entail cumulative investment of ̀ 10,000 crore.

•ONGC, Tripura Government, and Chambal expect the stock to see a price target of `50 in one Fertilizers and Chemicals had signed memorandum year time frame, based on estimated FY15E EPS of of understanding (MOU) on April 9 to set up the 6.20 on a current P/Ex of 8.14.plant in Unkoti district by 2016. Triprua government has allotted 800 acres of land to set up a `5000-crore Urea fertiliser plant. With the commissioning of the project, the urea demand for the entire northeastern region would be made and a large chunk of the produce could be exported to Bangladesh.

•The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) had approved a urea investment policy, which is likely to incentivize fertilizer companies to set up new plants and expand existing capacity. Under the new policy, the government will give 12-20 per cent post-tax return on fresh capital infused by the

` in cr

Actual Estimate FY Mar-13 FY Mar-14 FY Mar-15Revenue 8,198.70 8,270.20 8,585.40EBITDA 684.20 697.20 719.70EBIT 417.10 470.70 464.40Pre-tax Profit 359.90 362.10 383.30Net Income 250.50 242.60 263.60EPS 6.02 5.61 6.20BVPS 44.50 48.57 52.75ROE 14.10 11.50 12.20

P/BV Chart

5.48

9.41 3.77

56.79

24.55

Foreign

Institutions

Non Promoter Corporate Holding

Promoters

Public & Others

19.76

8.83

3.86

57.9

9.67

Foreign

Institutions

Non Promoter Corporate Holding

Promoters

Public & Others

Charts by Spider Software India Ltd

7

The stock closed at `57.35 on 03rd January 2013. It made a 52-week low at 38

on 28th August 2013 and a 52-week high at ̀ 59.60 on 02nd January 2014. The 200

days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart is

currently at ̀ 47.39.

As we can see on the charts, there is a strong consolidation in the range of 45-60

levels. Even though it tried to breach its resistance levels but failed in its first

attempt. However, it again tried and managed to remain positive last week,

which is an indication of strength in this particular scrip. One can buy 55-56

levels with closing below stop loss of 52 levels for the target of 63-65 levels.

`

EQUITY

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

The stock closed at 15.60 on 03rd January 2013. It made a 52-week low at 7.70

on 31st July 2013 and a 52-week high at `20.80 on 09th January 2013. The 200

days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart is

currently at ̀ 25.88.

It has formed Inverted head and shoulder on the charts with the rise in volumes.

A major move is expected in the near term. One can buy in the range of 14-15

levels with strict closing below stop loss of 13 levels for the target of 17-18

levels.

` `

The stock closed at 23.05 on 03rd January 2013. It made a 52-week low at

`17.40 on 28th August 2013 and a 52-week high of ̀ 51.60 on 07th January 2013.

The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart

is currently at ̀ 31.83.

It is clear from the charts that after a major fall it has rebounded sharply and

went into basing in the last few weeks so that lower level buying could begin to

move into upward direction. This price range could be considered as buying

opportunity to get a decent gain in the near term. One can buy in the range of

21-22 levels with closing below stop loss of 20 levels for the target of 24-26

levels.

`

DEVELOPMENT CREDIT BANK LIMITED

SREI INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCE LIMITED

HINDUSTAN CONSTRUCTION COMPANY LIMITED

®

DERIVATIVES

BASIS GAP IN NIFTY

Nifty closed the week on a negative note and saw selling pressure all throughout the week. However, it managed to close above the crucial support level of 6200 mark. Majority of the liquid stocks in the F&O segment are trading near the support. Global markets on the other hand are trading at yearly highs thus indicating a contrasting picture. For the January series, the basis is at premium of 47.00 points. The Implied Volatility (IV) of calls rose and closed at 15.85% while that for put options closed at 16.25%.The Nifty VIX for the week rose and it is currently trading below its 20-day SMA. Overall market cost-of-carry decreased on the back of addition in open interest indicating short build up and long liquidation. Among Nifty options, the 6500-strike call has the highest open interest of 50 lakh shares followed by the 6200-strike put which have OI of over 40 lakh shares. Last week 6500-strike call saw the highest addition in open interest of over 10 lakh shares indicating call writing. The PCR OI for the week closed at 0.83. On the technical front, Nifty is placed at the lower end of the range (6200-6500) and below 6150 strong down move can be expected. It is likely to see increased selling pressure if it breaks below 6150. On the upside, traders should watch for 6250 levels, above which short covering can come in.

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

NIFTY TOTAL OPEN INTEREST (in share)

FIIs ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE (F&O) IN LAST WEEK

(Derivative segment)

®

FIIs ACTIVITY IN F&O IN LAST TEN SESSIONS

(Derivative segment) `(Cr)

SRTRANSFIN (JAN FUTURE)

Buy: Above `683

Target: `704

Stop loss: `675

LT

Buy JAN 1000. PUT 26.00

Sell JAN 980. PUT 18.00

Lot size: 500

BEP: 992.00

Max. Profit: 6000.00 (12.00*500)

Max. Loss: 4000.00 ( 8.00*500)

OPTIONSTRATEGY

FUTURESTRATEGY

AUROPHARMA

Buy JAN 400. CALL 18.00

Sell JAN 410. CALL 14.00

Lot size: 2000

BEP: 404.00

Max. Profit: 12000.00 (6.00*2000)

Max. Loss: 8000.00 ( 4.00*2000)

IDEA

Buy JAN 165. CALL 5.85

Sell JAN 175. CALL 2.45

Lot size: 2000

BEP: 168.40

Max. Profit: 13200.00 (6.60*2000)

Max. Loss: 6800.00 ( 3.40*2000)

BULLISH STRATEGY

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

SUNPHARMA (JAN FUTURE)

Buy: `587

Target: `608

Stop loss: `579

Above

CAIRN (JAN FUTURE)

Sell: `320

Target: `312

Stop loss: `324

Below

BEARISH STRATEGY

638050

358400

870400 860050

1426050

3207750

3864400

5044150

30961003329350

1334450

1751000

1271650

2957600

3281850

3679100

3521350

1306300

705650579400

122850

405900

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

5800 5900 6000 6100 6200 6300 6400 6500 6600 6700 6800

Call Put

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

18-Dec 19-Dec 20-Dec 23-Dec 24-Dec 26-Dec 27-Dec 30-Dec 31-Dec 01-Jan 02-Jan

-176.01

1275.19

650.35

-628.66 -632.02

627.69 659.54

-192.98

559.74

207.16

-1000.00

-500.00

0.00

500.00

1000.00

1500.00

19-Dec 20-Dec 23-Dec 24-Dec 26-Dec 27-Dec 30-Dec 31-Dec 01-Jan 02-JanBUY

78.2%

SELL21.8%

8

9

BHARTIARTL 12386000 13064000 5.47 0.56 0.68 0.12 28.06 27.89 -0.17

DLF 26282000 27892000 6.13 0.49 0.49 0.00 44.09 44.23 0.14

HINDALCO 19056000 19120000 0.34 0.86 0.79 -0.07 31.05 33.63 2.58

HINDUNILVR 6363000 6450000 1.37 0.74 0.73 -0.01 28.79 21.38 -7.41

ICICIBANK 8326750 7900750 -5.12 0.52 0.56 0.04 29.16 33.24 4.08

IDEA 8438000 11684000 38.47 0.79 0.67 -0.12 29.85 34.00 4.15

INFY 3234625 3251250 0.51 0.71 0.63 -0.08 34.32 36.68 2.36

ITC 23957000 23850000 -0.45 0.43 0.50 0.07 20.19 20.64 0.45

JPASSOCIAT 43216000 49984000 15.66 0.48 0.48 0.00 41.43 47.10 5.67

NTPC 19548000 22110000 13.11 0.39 0.38 -0.01 24.36 24.59 0.23

ONGC 11239000 11352000 1.01 0.53 0.45 -0.08 24.77 27.06 2.29

RANBAXY 10820000 10879000 0.55 0.46 0.52 0.06 37.66 39.17 1.51

RCOM 35140000 37096000 5.57 0.68 0.52 -0.16 34.64 42.45 7.81

RELIANCE 12016250 11885750 -1.09 0.32 0.31 -0.01 21.00 23.15 2.15

NIFTY 19739300 19310900 -2.17 0.93 0.83 -0.10 13.67 15.85 2.18

SAIL 17912000 19776000 10.41 0.46 0.40 -0.06 33.05 33.02 -0.03

SBIN 5846000 6134000 4.93 0.47 0.49 0.02 26.78 31.11 4.33

TATASTEEL 13864000 13883000 0.14 0.58 0.72 0.14 25.21 27.32 2.11

UNITECH 126324000 127848000 1.21 0.42 0.39 -0.03 50.11 52.49 2.38

IMPORTANT INDICATORS OF NIFTY AND OTHER ACTIVE FUTURE CONTRACTS

OPEN INTEREST PCR RATIO IMPLIED VOLATILITY

SCRIPTS PREV. CURRENT % PREV. CURRENT PREV. CURRENT WEEK WEEK CHANGE WEEK WEEK CHANGE WEEK WEEK CHANGE

DERIVATIVES

Put Call Ratio Analysis : The Put-Call open interest ratio of Nifty has decreased

to 0.83 from 0.93. At the end of the week, the maximum stocks had a negative of

change in put call open interest ratio.

Implied Volatility Analysis : The Implied Volatility (IV) for Nifty futures this week

has increased to 15.85% from 13.67%. The IV of the stock futures has changed this

week ranging from -7.41% to 7.81%.

Open Interest Analysis : The open interest for the index at the end of this week

has decreased by 2.17% as compared to the previous week. All future stocks saw

changes in their open interest ranging from -5.12% to 38.47%. IDEA has the

maximum increase in open interest as compared to other stocks.

Statistical Analysis·

Open 6340.00 High 6408.70

Low 6246.05 Close 6257.75

NIFTY & IV CHART NIFTY ANALYSIS

®

13

14

15

16

17

6000

6100

6200

6300

6400

27-Dec 30-Dec 31-Dec 01-Jan 02-Jan

Nifty Close IV

10

®

Jeera futures (Mar) is expected to trade in the range of 12500-13500 levels. The sowing is moving up well in major growing areas in India. However, coming one month is a crucial stage for standing crop. Farmers remained concern for the highly cold weather (dew) surrounding the crop. It is estimated that production in this season is projected to be around 40-42 lakh bags, up approximately 5-7 lakh bags year-on-year basis. Cardamom futures (Feb) is likely to shed down further breaching 690 levels on account of slack demand at auctions held in Kerala and Tamil Nadu. The spot market is expected to become active after the Pongal festival. Individual auction average continued to remain much below Rs 600/kg. During the current season of the crop, total arrivals up to Dec. 29 stood at 11,169 tonnes as against 6,115 tonnes in the last season. The sales were at 10,892 tonnes and 5,823 tonnes respectively. Turmeric futures (Apr) would possibly maintain the upside bias taking support above 6300 levels. It is estimated that the total stocks of the turmeric have been declined to 35-36 lakh bags as against 48-51 lakh bags of the last year in the same period. There are talks that poor rainfall in Erode during the sowing period may reduce the total production of the turmeric crop in the current year. In Nizamabad region, turmeric production may come down by 10 – 15% current year on higher rainfall during the maturity stage.

SPICES

Bullion counter is expected to continue last week bounce back as lower prices prompted the physical buying. COMEX Gold witnessed the biggest weekly gains since October on speculation that the demand will increase in Asia, the largest consuming region. Meanwhile, movement of local currency rupee will impact prices of yellow metal on the domestic bourses, which can weaken towards 63.5 in near term. Gold may move in the range of 28500-29600 in MCX. White metal silver can hover in the range of 44000-48000. SPDR gold holdings stood at 794.62 tonnes last week. The premium to take immediate delivery in China, which probably overtook India as the largest user in 2013, was about $21.07 an ounce last week compared with last year's average of $18.72. Last year, drop in ETF investment was seen as assets in bullion backed exchange traded products shrank for the first year since the first product was introduced in 2003. Last month, Federal Reserve stated that it will reduce bond purchases this month amid an improving economy. Investors would watch Chinese New Year gold sales closely, since the holiday is a traditionally strong season for gold buying by the Chinese, who look to become the world's biggest consumers of gold this year. Meanwhile, there appeared to be a shortage of physical metal availability for immediate delivery due to a number of closures around the world over the last week during the Christmas and New Year's holidays.

BULLIONS

Crude oil prices can remain subdued as rise in the greenback and fear of Fed tapering exerted selling pressure on the prices. Overall crude oil can move in the range of 5800-6200 in MCX and $93-100 in NYMEX. Increase in US production has capped upside in crude oil recently as U.S. production is booming as hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling techniques enable energy producers to access supplies trapped in shale oil fields. Tensions in Africa have given support to the prices recently. First UN reinforcements have arrived in oil rich South Sudan, where violent ethnic clashes are said to have claimed "thousands" of lives. Elsewhere, Libya, which accounts for over 1.5% of global oil output, is producing just 250,000 barrels per day. Meanwhile Libya hopes to resume production at one of its largest oilfields, El Sharara, after protesters agreed to suspend their two month stoppage. Saudi Arabia has reduced the February official selling price for its Arab Light crude grade to Asia by $1.30 to the Oman/Dubai averages plus $2.45 a barrel. The US winter demand and extreme cold weather can give support to the natural gas prices as it can trade in the range of 255-280 in MCX. Meanwhile Commodity Weather Group LLC predicted a strong cold outbreak across the central and eastern states in the next five days, with some of the lowest Midwestern readings since January 2009. According to Commodity Weather in Bethesda, Maryland temperatures will be below normal across the eastern half of the lower 48 states through Jan. 11.

ENERGY COMPLEX

OTHER COMMODITIES

Guar seed futures (Feb) is likely to show some upside movement surpassing 4900 levels, while guar gum futures (Feb) may rise breaching the resistance at 13200 levels. In the current scenario, the farmers are not able to bring their guar stocks in the markets due to cold wave in Rajasthan and Haryana. In the fourth week of December 2013, average crush margin stood at `-331.30/quintal as compared to `-349.5/quintal in the third week of previous month. Increase in Churi and korma prices led the margin up. Moreover, the decline in precipitation in main guar belt i.e. Rajasthan is a worrying factor. Sugar futures (Jan) is likely to take support above 2750 levels. Market participants would keep an eye on the government decision, which could provide incentives to mills to export raw sugar. On the other hand, the pace of arrivals has also slowed down as temperature has fallen below normal level in most parts of the country. In the international market, raw sugar futures settled at 16.41 cts/lb, down 16% in 2013, marking third annual drop. Chana futures (Jan) would possibly manage to trade in the range of 3030-3120 levels. It is reported that there are some improvement in the local demand from spot buyers and stockists due to weddings and concerns prevailing over the crop in Madhya Pradesh. Chana crop has attained 50-55 days old stage in Karnataka but in some parts early sown crop has reached pod development stage. In Gujarat crop is in vegetative stage and farmers are practicing nipping operation which leads to the spreading of the plants and eventually results in better yield.

Base metals are likely to witness volatile movement tracking mixed fundamentals. Last week China's Non-manufacturing PMI declined by 1.4 points to 54.6 mark in December from 56 levels in November. Meanwhile US employment situation is slowly showing signs of improvement as US Unemployment Claims declined by 2,000 to 339,000 for the week ending on 28th December from rise of 341,000 in prior week. China's top planning agency pledged to curb local government debt while the central bank said it will keep monetary policy stable in 2014 as it pushes financial reforms. Red metal copper can trade in the range of 460-480.Chile produced 514,889 tonnes of copper in November, a 7.6 percent increase from the year before, due to a recovery in a major deposits that had a troubled in 2012. Zinc prices can hover in the range of 125-133 in MCX. Nickel prices can trade in the range of 855-890 in MCX. On the inventory front nickel is being weighed persistently by the higher inventories, which continues to be stubbornly high above 260,000 MT mark. Further China's economy is likely to show weaker momentum in the final three months of 2013 after a rebound between July and September, due to slowing credit growth and a fall-off in restocking demand. Aluminum can move in the range of 105-115. Cancelled warrants of aluminum have also increased and are near the higher level last seen on the 16th of the previous month which pushed the prices of the commodity higher. Battery metal lead can move in the range of 134-144.

BASE METALS

Mustard futures (Jan) is expected to face resistance near 3630 levels. This season there is a projection of bumper on account of higher acreage & favourable condition. As per the latest statistics, acreage was higher at 68.86 lakh hectares as against last year's 64.48 lakh hectares. Timely sown crop is at vegetative stage and intercultural operations like thinning, weeding etc are being carried out in north India. Overall weather is favourable for the crop and there is no major threat of pests and disease as yet. Refined soy oil futures (Jan) is likely to take support at 685 levels. The upside in the counter may catch momentum surpassing 700 levels, pushed up by the marriage season demand. CPO futures (Jan) would possibly consolidate in the range of 545-555 levels. The downside may remain limited on positive cues from international palm oil market and good demand at cash market. In news, Indian Government has revised the tariff value for crude palm oil to US $ 892, RBD palm oil to US $922, Crude and refined palmolein to 925 and 928 (US dollar per metric tons) respectively. On Bursa Malaysia Derivatives, palm oil futures jumped to their highest in three weeks amid apprehensions that inventories in Malaysia probably dropped in December. Market participants would be keeping an eye on the figures to be released by the Malaysian Palm oil Board on Jan. 10, 2014. The Malaysian market, which sets the tone for global prices, ended 9% higher in 2013, its first annual gain since 2010.

OIL AND OILSEEDS

Closing as on 02.01.2014

11

NOTES : 1) Buy / Sell 25% of Commodity at S1/R1 respectively & rest 75% at S2/R2 respectively.2) S1 & S2 indicate first support & second support & R1 & R 2 indicate first resistance & second resistance. 3) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the commodity. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly

basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.4) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of Daily report- commodities.

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

EXCHANGE CONTRACT CLOSING DATE TREND

PRICE CHANGED CHANGED STOP/LOSS

NCDEX SOYABEAN (JAN) 3791.00 10.10.13 UP 3681.00 3600.00 - 3350.00 - 3100.00

NCDEX JEERA (MAR) 12835.00 03.10.13 DOWN 12607.00 - 13100.00 13500.00 13700.00

NCDEX CHANA(JAN) 3074.00 19.12.13 DOWN 2985.00 - 3300.00 3500.00 3700.00

NCDEX RM SEEDS (JAN) 3571.00 13.11.13 UP 3816.00 3500.00 - 3450.00 - 3350.00

MCX MENTHA OIL (JAN) 846.60 13.11.13 SIDEWAYS

MCX CARDAMOM (JAN) 689.90 28.02.13 DOWN 965.00 - 780.00 830.00 860.00

MCX SILVER (MARCH) 45348.00 26.09.13 DOWN 48639.00 - 47000.00 50000.00 53000.00

MCX GOLD (FEB ) 28968.00 26.09.13 DOWN 29865.00 - 30000.00 30500.00 31000.00

MCX COPPER (FEB) 469.70 12.12.13 UP 459.90 455.00 - 445.00 - 425.00

MCX LEAD (JAN ) 138.00 19.12.13 UP 136.50 132.00 - 127.00 - 120.00

MCX ZINC (JAN ) 129.65 19.12.13 UP 459.90 122.00 - 115.00 - 110.00

MCX NICKEL(JAN ) 875.20 12.09.13 DOWN 879.20 - 920.00 - 950.00 980.00

MCX ALUMINUM (JAN ) 111.20 26.09.13 DOWN 111.65 - 113.00 - 118.00 123.00

MCX CRUDE OIL (JAN) 6016.00 26.09.13 DOWN 6415.00 - 6250.00 - 6400.00 6550.00

MCX NATURAL GAS (JAN ) 269.50 28.11.13 UP 247.20 260.00 - 250.00 - 240.00

TREND RATE TREND S1 R1 S2 R2 CLOSING

*

TREND SHEET

COMMODITY

LEAD MCX (JANUARY) contract closed at `138.00 on 2nd January '13. The contract made its high of

`146.25 on 24th December '13 and a low of ̀ 128.05 on 9th December '13. The 18-day Exponential Moving

Average of the commodity is currently at ̀ 136.81 On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 52. One can Sell in the

range 139-141 with the stop loss of ̀ 143 for a target of ̀ 134.

NATURAL GAS MCX (JANUARY) contract closed at 269.50 on 2nd January '13. The contract made its

high of `286.50 on 23rd December '13 and a low of `240.20 on 26th November '13.The 18-day

Exponential Moving Average of the Commodity is currently at ̀ 268.

On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 51. One can Sell in the

range 272-275 with the stop loss of ̀ 279 for target of ̀ 258.

`

ZINC MCX (JANUARY) contract closed at 129.65 on 2nd January '13. The contract made its high of

`135.80 on 24th December '13 and a low of `122.90 on 19th December '13.The 18-day Exponential

Moving Average of the Commodity is currently at ̀ 126.

On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 57. One can Sell in the

range 130-132 with the stop loss of ̀ 134 for a target of ̀ 125.

`

®

LEAD MCX (JANUARY)

NATURAL GAS MCX (JANUARY)

ZINC MCX (JANUARY)

COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

Almost all the commodities traded bullish in the first week of 2014 but with a low volume due to

celebration time of Christmas and New Year. Buying emerged everywhere, from precious metals

to industrial metals to many agri commodities. Energy counter moved down on profit booking at

higher side as rally overstretched in both crude and natural gas. Crude traded near the lowest

level in a month amid speculation that Federal Reserve will further curb stimulus measures after

signs of improvement in the U.S. economy. Gold and silver took support in both the international

and the domestic markets. Gold took support near 28000 in MCX and silver consolidated near

44000. In the international markets, gold closed above the crucial level of $1230. Gold rallied

from its worst year in more than three decades as a decline to a six-month low was seen spurring

physical purchases, potentially prompting some investors to reverse bets on lower prices. Silver

also jumped. If we take the broader picture then gold was the third-largest loser for the year on

the 19-commodity Thomson Reuters/Core Commodity CRB index, after corn and silver. Industrial

metals performed mixed last week. Nickel, zinc, aluminum and lead closed down while copper

prices strengthened. Copper rose to its highest since early June on the expectations that

economic recovery in top consumer China will drive demand.

Bullish trend witnessed in agri commodities. Guarseed and guargum futures rose, tracking firm

cues from the spot market and on hopes of a pick-up in demand from the food sector. Chana

futures rose on some improvement in local demand and on concerns over the crop in Madhya

Pradesh. Though, sufficient stocks and prospects of a better crop capped the gains. In spices

counter, jeera and turmeric showed some good upside move. Turmeric futures ended steady as

large carry forward stocks and approaching new season supplies offset concerns about the quality

of crop. Jeera futures rose despite expanded area under cultivation and conducive weather that

brightened the prospects of higher production and large stocks. In edible oil and oil seeds counter,

soyabean took support near 3750 and refined soya 690 in the week gone by. While, an expected

rise in the global soybean supply and rains over South American countries curb excessive gains.

Adequate stocks position in the physical market amid higher production expectation during

current year capped the upside of cardamom futures.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

COMMODITY UNIT 24.12.13 02.01.14 DIFFERENCEQTY.

BARLEY MT 588 856 268

CASTOR SEED MT 8161 23869 15708

CHANA MT 13828 12409 -1419

CHILLI MT 101 0 -101

COTTONSEED OILCAKE MT 18050 23152 5102

JEERA MT 24 0 -24

MAIZE MT 6634 7758 1124

RAPE MUSTARD SEED MT 6939 4795 -2144

SOYA BEAN SEEDS MT 8802 8802 0

SUGAR M MT 729 0 -729

WHEAT MT 846 0 -846

COMMODITY UNIT 26.12.13 02.01.14 DIFFERENCE

QTY. QTY.

CARDAMOM MT 77.20 70.20 -7.00

KAPASIA KHALLI BALES 3998.99 4295.79 296.80

GOLD KGS 48.00 48.00 0.00

GOLD MINI KGS 12.40 27.40 15.00

GOLD GUINEA KGS 2.18 14.86 12.68

MENTHA OIL KGS 2545758.60 2483157.15 -62601.45

MILD STEEL MT 334.91 305.07 -29.84

SILVER (30 KG Bar) KGS 36328.65 36021.98 -306.68

•China official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), published by the National Bureau of Statistics, dipped to 51.0 in December.

•India's Iron ore exports to China reached just over 10 million tonnes in January-November, down 68 percent from a year earlier.

•India's fiscal deficit touched 5.1 trillion rupees during April- November, or 93.9% of the full-year target.

•Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (MCX) appointed Manoj Vaish as new Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer.

•The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has allowed gold refiners to import dore up to 15% of their gross average viable quantity, based on their license entitlement in the first two months, for making this available to exporters on a first-in first-out basis.

•According to the International Cotton Advisory Committee global cotton supplies will reach 19.78 million tons by July 31, down from a December forecast of 20.32 million tonnes.

•India's State Trading Corp has issued a global tender to export 160,000 tonnes of wheat for shipment between Jan. 18 and Feb. 18.

•The launch of May 2014 expiry futures contracts in Maize - Feed/Industrial grade and Wheat which were scheduled to be launched on January 01, 2014 has been deferred till further notice.

•Futures contracts in Cotton Seed (Industrial Grade) expiring in the months of February 2014 and March 2014 would be available for trading on NCDEX from January 02, 2014.

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

12

®

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change) MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

QTY.

8.348.02

7.57

4.71

4.29

-3.30

-2.85

-1.94

-0.30 -0.18

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

GUAR SEED GUAR GUM CORIANDER CASTOR SEED NEW

TURMERIC CRUDE OIL BR. CRUDE OIL GUR NEW SOYAMEAL RUBBER NEW

7.72

2.59

2.12

1.681.45

-3.91

-3.34-2.98

-2.58

-1.88

-6.00

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

GUAR SEED SILVER 1000 KAPASKHALI CARDAMOM GOLD M CRUDE OIL BR. CRUDE OIL GUAR GUM LEAD POTATO

Oilseeds………fundamental update

13

SPOT PRICES (% change)

COMMODITY

COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT 27.12.13 02.01.14 CHANGE%

ALUMINIUM LME 3 MONTHS 1810.00 1803.00 -0.39

COPPER LME 3 MONTHS 7382.00 7393.00 0.15

LEAD LME 3 MONTHS 2287.00 2221.00 -2.89

NICKEL LME 3 MONTHS 14200.00 14005.00 -1.37

ZINC LME 3 MONTHS 2089.00 2075.00 -0.67

GOLD COMEX FEB 1214.00 1225.20 0.92

SILVER COMEX MAR 20.05 20.13 0.39

LIGHT CRUDE OIL NYMEX FEB 100.32 95.44 -4.86

NATURAL GAS NYMEX FEB 4.37 4.32 -1.08

PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)

Domestic fundamental• As per the Ministry of Agriculture, total area sown under rabi oilseeds

(as on 26 December) was reported up at 81.42 lakh hectares as compared to 77.72 lakh hectares in the same period last year.

• Rabi mustard seed stood at 68.86 lakh hectares as on 26 Dec 2013, up from 64.48lakh hectares in the corresponding period last year.

• Traders expect India's output of rapeseed to reach 6.7 million tonnes from 6.4 million tonnes as farmers are likely to take advantage of monsoon-soaked land to grow the rapeseed crop.

• SOPA has estimated production to be lower and has revised its output expectations to 122.34 lakh tonnes from 129.83 lakh tonnes earlier.

• The Ministry of Agriculture in its 1st Advance Estimates, projected 2013-14 soybean output at 15.68 mn tn as against 14.67 mn tn in 2012-13.

• The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs has increased the MSP of Rapeseed/Mustard seed to Rs. 3050 per qtl from ̀ 3000 last year.

®

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)

COMMODITY STOCK POSITION STOCK POSITION DIFFERENCE

24.12.13 02.01.14

ALUMINIUM 5460225 5458075 -2150

COPPER 379100 366425 -12675

NICKEL 255906 261636 5730

LEAD 216450 214450 -2000

ZINC 890625 933475 42850

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT UNIT 27.12.13 02.01.14 CHANGE(%)

Soya CBOT MAR Cent per Bushel 1313.75 1270.00 -3.33

Maize CBOT MAR Cent per Bushel 427.50 420.50 -1.64

CPO BMD MAR MYR per MT 2632.00 2649.00 0.65

Sugar LIFFE MAR 10 cents per MT 447.00 445.40 -0.36

-0.39

-0.35

0.00

0.15

0.20

0.26

0.40

0.52

0.53

0.87

0.93

1.04

2.28

2.77

4.13

-1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50

GOLD 10 GMS (MUMBAI)

CHILLI (GUNTUR)

CHANA (DELHI )

MUSTARD (JAIPUR)

REFINED SOYA OIL (INDORE)

BARLEY (JAIPUR)

PEPPER MALABAR GAR (KOCHI)

CRUDE PALM OIL (KANDLA)

RUBBER (KOCHI)

MASOOR (INDORE)

GUR (MUZAFFARNGR.)

JEERA (UNJHA)

SILVER 5 KG (DELHI)

CORIANDER (KOTA)

TURMERIC (NIZAMABAD)

Export of oilmeals •

declined to 503,269 tonnes in November as against 517,103 tonnes last year. Total Oil meal exports stood at 560,648 tonnes in November.

• As per traders, India's soya meal exports are likely to decline more than a quarter to 3 million tons in the year to September 2014 as overseas buyers opt for cheaper supplies from South America.

International fundamental• USDA has forecast US soy output at 3.258 bn bsh While Conab forecast

Brazil soy crop at 90.03 mt .• According to Argentina's Agriculture Ministry, the 2013-14 soybean

planting area is reported at 20.80 million hectares compared to its previous estimate of 20.70 million hectares.

• According to Rosario exchange, Argentina's soybeans production for 2013-14 is expected to be 55 million tons, up from 48.3 million tons of output seen last year.

• As per the latest WASDE report, the 2013-14 ending soybean stocks were pegged at 150 million bushels as compared with the November estimate of 170 million bushels.

• Oil World has estimated that the global production of rapeseed and canola may reach an all-time high 67.7 million tons in 2013-14.

• Oil World has raised its estimate for rapeseed crushing to 62.8 million tons from 60.4 million tons previously, and up from 61.7 million tons in 2012-13.

• As per the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, China is likely to import 6.67 million tons of soybean in December 2013, higher than its previous forecast of 6.34 million tons. Also, the soybean imports in January are projected to fall to 2.37 million tons.

According to Solvent Extractors' Association of India, Soy meal exports

Crops 26 Dec 2013 26 Dec 2012 % change

Rape mustard 68.86 64.48 6.80Groundnut 3.59 4.10 -12.40Safflower 1.69 1.31 29.00Sunflower 3.35 4.28 -21.70Seasum 0.43 0.48 -10.40Linseed 3.14 2.62 19.80Others 0.36 0.45 -20.00Total 81.42 77.72 4.80

Rabi Oilseeds sown Area (in lakh ha)

Source : GoI

CURRENCY

Currency Table

Currency Pair Open High Low Close

USD/INR 62.34 62.69 62.02 62.68

EUR/INR 85.64 85.96 85.35 85.80

GBP/INR 102.55 103.68 102.35 103.65

JPY/INR 59.01 59.50 58.90 59.48

(Source: FX Central, Open: Monday 9.00 AM IST, Close: Thursday (5.00 PM IST)

News Flows of last week

31st Dec: U.S. consumer mood brightened, but home price gains slowed

02nd Jan: China December services PMI fell to four-month low

02nd Jan: British manufacturing growth eased slightly in December

02nd Jan: U.S. construction spending rose to its highest level in nearly five years in November

02nd Jan: U.S. manufacturing ended the year on a high note, growing in December at its fastest pace in 11 months

02nd Jan: The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits fell as again last week

02nd Jan: U.S. factory activity held near a 2-1/2-year high in December

EUR/INR (JAN) contract closed at 85.80 on 02nd January'14. The contract made its high of `85.96 on 30th December'13 and a low of `85.35 on 02nd December'13 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at ̀ 85.40.

On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 56.27. One can buy around 85.40 for a target of 86.50 with the stop loss of 84.80.

`

JPY/INR (JAN) contract closed at Rs 59.48 on 02nd January'14. The contract made its high of `59.50 on 02nd January'14 and a low of `58.90 on 01st January'14 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at ̀ 59.74.

On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 49.50. One can buy above 60.75 for a target of 61.90 with the stop loss of ̀ 60.00.

Market Stance

In the week gone by, rupee fell sharply and tested one month low against

dollar amid demand from importers as the US currency strengthened

overseas. Moreover, drop in the domestic equity market amid weak European

cues and a decline in manufacturing data in December also added pressure in

the local currency. The HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index,

a measure of factory production, dropped to 50.7 in December from 51.3 in

November. In overseas market, dollar index remained steady near two week

high after positive US economic data reinforced expectations that the Federal

Reserve will continue to step away from its bond buying stimulus. The rupee

hit series of lows last year. It touched a record low of 68.85 versus the US

dollar.

EUR/INR

USD/INR (JAN) contract closed at 62.68 on 02nd January'14. The contract made its high of `62.69 on 02nd January'14 and a low of 62.02 on 02nd January'14 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at ̀ 62.30.

On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 58.91. One can buy around 62.45 for a target of 63.50 with the stop loss of 61.85.

``

GBP/INR (JAN) contract closed at 103.65 on 02nd January'14. The contract made its high of 103.68 on 02nd January'14 and a low of `102.35 on 31st December'13 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at ̀ 102.38.

On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 61.43. One can buy around 102.50 for a target of 103.75 with the stop loss of 101.90

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USD/INRTechnical Recommendation

GBP/INR JPY/INR

14

®

Economic gauge for the next week

Date Currency Event PREVIOUS

06th Jan EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) 1.30%

06th Jan EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY) 1.60%

06th Jan USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite 53.9

07th Jan EUR German Unemployment Change 10K

07th Jan EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. 6.90%

09th Jan GBP Bank of England Rate Decision 0.50%

09th Jan GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target 375B

09th Jan EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision 0.25%

10th Jan USD Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 203K

10th Jan USD Unemployment Rate 7.00%

IPOIPO

IPO TRACKER

Company Sector M.Cap(In `Cr.) Issue Size(in `Cr.) List Date Issue Price List Price Last Price %Gain/Loss(from Issue price)

*

Just Dial service provider 10469.51 950.11 5-Jun-13 530.00 590.00 1494.15 181.92

Repco Home Fin Finance 2097.28 270.39 1-Apr-13 172.00 165.00 337.40 96.16

V-Mart Retail Trading 418.56 123.00 20-Feb-13 210.00 216.00 233.05 10.98

Bharti Infra. Telecom 32054.97 4533.60 28-Dec-12 220.00 200.00 169.70 -22.86

PC Jeweller Jewellary 1522.35 609.30 27-Dec-12 135.00 135.50 85.00 -37.04

CARE Rating Agency 2086.41 540.00 26-Dec-12 750.00 949.00 719.45 -4.07

Tara Jewels Jewellary 208.04 179.50 6-Dec-12 230.00 242.00 84.50 -63.26

VKS Projects Engineering 49.14 55.00 18-Jul-12 55.00 55.80 0.78 -98.58

Speciality Rest. Restaurants 608.60 181.96 30-May-12 150.00 153.00 129.60 -13.60

T B Z Jewellary 901.45 210.00 9-May-12 120.00 115.00 135.15 12.63

MT Educare Miscellaneous 359.61 99.00 12-Apr-12 80.00 86.05 90.40 13.00

NBCC Construction 1900.20 124.97 12-Apr-12 106.00 100.00 158.35 49.39

Olympic card. Media 39.23 24.75 28-Mar-12 30.00 29.95 24.05 -19.83

Multi Comm. Exc. Exchange 2490.08 663.31 9-Mar-12 1032.00 1387.00 488.25 -52.69

Indo Thai Sec. Finance 12.60 29.60 2-Nov-11 74.00 75.00 12.60 -82.97

Vaswani Inds. Steel 9.02 49.00 24-Oct-11 49.00 33.45 3.15 -93.57

*Closing prices as on 02-01-2014®

15

IPO NEWS

SEBI has allowed the class of the companies to file Shelf Prospectus

While Companies Act, 1956 had allowed only Banks and Public Financial institutions to file Shelf Prospectus, the Companies Act, 2013 enables SEBI to specify

the class of the companies which can be allowed to file Shelf Prospectus. In this regard, the Board has decided to allow the following class of entities to file

Shelf Prospectus for public issuance of non-convertible debt securities:

(i) Public financial institutions and Scheduled Banks;

(ii) Issuers authorized by the notification of CBDT to make public issue tax free secured bonds;

(iii) Infrastructure Debt Funds – Non-Banking Financial Companies;

(iv) NBFCs, registered with RBI, Housing Finance Companies registered with National Housing Bank (NHB) and entities which have listed their

shares/debentures in the stock exchanges for at least three years complying with the following criteria

�net worth of ̀ 500 Crores,

�track record of three years of distributable profits,

�having a credit rating of not less than "AA-",

�having no default history or regulatory action pending with RBI, SEBI or NHB;

To avoid fragmentation of the issues, which will affect the floating stock and thereby liquidity, it is further stipulated that only a maximum of four issuances

can be made under a Shelf Prospectus. Further, companies filing a shelf prospectus with the Registrar of Companies are not required to file prospectus

afresh at every stage of offer of securities, within the period of validity of such shelf prospectus i.e. one year. They are required to file only an information

memorandum, containing material updations, with respect to subsequent issues.

SEBI has made the IPO grading mechanism “voluntary”

Considering the requests received from market participants, viz. investor associations and Association of Investment Bankers of India (AIBI), the

recommendation of the advisory committee of SEBI, and to align with the principles laid down by Financial Stability Board (FSB) on reducing the reliance on

Credit Rating Agencies, the Board approved the proposal to make the IPO grading mechanism “voluntary” as against the current provision of the same being

“mandatory”.

Fund raising via IPOs during 2013 lowest in 12 yrs

Amid volatile equity market, Indian companies mopped-up 1,619 crore in 2013 through initial public offerings, the lowest level in 12 years. According to

Prime Database, as many as 11 companies had raked in 6,835 crore through initial share—sale programme in 2012, as against three firms that garnered

1,619 crore last year. This was the lowest—level of fund raising via IPO since 2001, when only 296 crore was garnered through such route. Fund raising

through IPO had touched all—time high of 37,535 crore in 2010.

SBI gets shareholders' nod for 11,500 crore QIP

State Bank of India (SBI) has got shareholders' approval for raising up to 11,500 crore by way of Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP) or public offer.

Shareholders have passed special resolution to create offer to issue and allot by way of QIP/FPO or any other mode, as may be approved by the government

and RBI, such number of shares of 10 each as decided by the board in their discretion, up to 11,500 crore or such amounts.

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16

MUTUAL FUND

NEWS

HDFC MF introduces FMP 371D January 2014 (1)

HDFC Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of HDFC FMP 371D January 2014 (1), a Close Ended Income scheme. The NFO opens for subscription on

Jan 3, 2014, and closes on Jan 7, 2014. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate income through investments in Debt / Money Market Instruments

and Government Securities maturing on or before the maturity date of the respective Plan(s). There is no assurance that the investment objective of the Scheme

will be realized.

ICICI Prudential MF introduces Interval Fund-Series VII-Annual Interval Plan-A

ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of ICICI Prudential Interval Fund-Series VII-Annual Interval Plan-A, a Close Ended Income

scheme. The NFO opens for subscription on Dec 30, 2013, and closes on Jan 6, 2014. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate optimal returns

consistent with moderate levels of risk and liquidity by investing in debt securities and money market securities maturing on or before the opening of the

immediately following Specified Transaction Period (STP).However, there can be no assurance that the investment objective of the Scheme will be realized.

Birla Sun Life MF introduces Fixed Term Plan-Series JO (367 days)

Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of Birla Sun Life Fixed Term Plan-Series JO (367 days), a Close Ended Income scheme. The NFO

opens for subscription on Jan 3, 2014, and closes on Jan 6, 2014. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate income by investing in a portfolio of fixed

income securities maturing on or before the duration of the scheme.

ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund files offer document for Retirement Income Retirement Income Fund

ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund has filed offer document with SEBI to launch an open ended tax savings cum pension scheme named as “ICICI Prudential Retirement

Income Retirement Income Fund”. The New Fund Offer price is`10 per unit. The scheme will be benchmarked against CNX Nifty Index for Equity Plan, CRISIL

Balanced Fund Index for Hybrid - Equity Plan, CRISIL MIP Blended Index for Hybrid – Debt Fund and CRISIL Composite Bond Fund Index for Income Plan. The

minimum application amount is `5,000 and in multiples of Re 1 thereafter. The investment objective of providing pension to an investor in the form of

income/cash flow to the extent of redemption value of their holding after the age of 58 years by investing in a mix of securities comprising equity, equity related

instruments and/or Debt/Money Market Instruments.

ICICI Prudential MF introduces Capital Protection Oriented Fund V-PLAN A-5 Years Plan

ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of ICICI Prudential Capital Protection Oriented Fund V-PLAN A-5 Years Plan, a Close Ended

Income scheme. The NFO opens for subscription on Jan 2, 2014, and closes on Jan 16, 2014. The investment objective of the scheme is to seek to protect capital

by investing a portion of the portfolio in highest rated debt securities and money market instruments and also to provide capital appreciation by investing the

balance in equity and equity related securities. The securities would mature on or before the maturity of the Plan under the Scheme. However, there can be no

assurance that the investment objective of the Scheme will be realized.

SBI MF introduces Debt Fund Series-16 Months-2

SBI Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of SBI Debt Fund Series-16 Months-2, a Close Ended Income scheme. The NFO opens for subscription on

Dec 31, 2013, and closes on Jan 8, 2014. The investment objective of the scheme is to provide regular income, liquidity and returns to the investors through

investments in a portfolio comprising of debt instruments such as Government Securities, PSU & Corporate Bonds and Money Market Instruments maturing on or

before the maturity of the scheme.

IDFC MF introduces Fixed Term Plan Series -62

IDFC Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of IDFC Fixed Term Plan Series -62, a Close Ended Income scheme. The NFO opens for subscription on

Jan 2, 2014, and closes on Jan 9, 2014. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate income by investing in a portfolio of debt and money market

instruments maturing on or before the maturity of the scheme. There is no assurance or guarantee that the objectives of the scheme will be realized.

Deutsche MF introduces Hybrid Fixed Term Fund - Series 18

Deutsche Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of DWS Hybrid Fixed Term Fund - Series 18, a Close Ended Income scheme. The NFO opens for

subscription on Jan 3, 2014, and closes on Jan 17, 2014. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate income by investing in a portfolio of fixed income

securities maturing on or before the duration of the scheme.

Axis MF introduces Fixed Term Plan - Series 48 (3 years)

Axis Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of Axis Fixed Term Plan - Series 48 (3 years), a close ended income scheme. The NFO opens for

subscription on Jan 2, 2014, and closes on Jan 10, 2014. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate returns through a portfolio of debt & money

market instruments that are maturing on or before the maturity of the respective plan(s).

LIC Nomura MF introduces Capital Protection Oriented Fund Series 2

LIC Nomura Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of LIC NOMURA Capital Protection Oriented Fund Series 2, a Close Ended Income scheme. The

NFO opens for subscription on Dec 30, 2013, and closes on Jan 13, 2014. The investment objective of the scheme is to achieve capital protection by investing in

fixed income securities maturing on or before the tenure of the scheme and seeks capital appreciation by investing in equity and equity related instruments.

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NFOs WATCH

Fund Name NFO NFO Scheme Objective Fund Type Fund Class Fund Manager MinimumOpens on Closes on Amount

02-Jan-2014 10-Jan-2014 Close-Ended Growth `5000/-Axis Fixed Term Plan - Series 48 (3 years) - Regular Plan (G)

Kedar KarnikTo generate returns through a portfolio of debt & money market instruments that are maturing on or before the maturity of the respective plan(s).

18

MUTUAL FUND Performance Charts

Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)

Scheme Name NAV Launch AUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Beta Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &

(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER

ICICI Prud. Exports and Other Services Fund - G 27.06 30-Nov-2005 190.65 15.47 35.50 41.23 13.09 13.08 1.63 0.39 0.55 57.25 31.66 2.84 8.26

ICICI Prudential Dynamic Plan - Growth 134.22 31-Oct-2002 3572.91 13.47 21.83 14.22 6.25 26.15 1.57 0.62 0.17 54.96 19.57 2.60 22.87

Tata Ethical Fund - Plan A - Growth 84.43 24-May-1996 115.07 10.03 13.77 14.18 6.25 16.61 1.33 0.50 0.14 69.16 23.28 1.51 6.05

Reliance Small Cap Fund - Growth 12.19 16-Sep-2010 310.48 33.47 31.61 10.68 5.75 6.19 2.04 0.59 0.03 1.58 59.95 36.64 1.83

Axis Equity Fund - Growth 13.55 05-Jan-2010 602.85 8.05 7.20 10.34 4.48 7.90 1.73 0.80 0.14 78.71 11.36 5.17 4.77

SBI Magnum Midcap Fund - Growth 30.90 29-Mar-2005 184.66 25.14 24.12 10.33 6.98 13.73 2.07 0.64 0.23 8.42 71.82 12.26 7.50

Franklin India Smaller Companies Fund - G 19.13 13-Jan-2006 321.06 18.92 16.58 10.08 7.74 8.48 1.95 0.67 0.18 13.12 70.48 7.97 8.43

EQUITY (Diversified)

BALANCED

INCOME FUND

Note: Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option. The above mentioned data is on the basis of 02/01/2014Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 7%

ULTRA SHORT TERM

SHORT TERM FUND

Due to their inherent long term nature, the following 3 categories have been sorted on the basis of 1 year returns

Due to their inherent short term nature, the following 2 categories have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns

Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)

Scheme Name NAV Launch AUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &

(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER

SBI Magnum Balanced Fund - Growth 62.57 09-Oct-1995 420.88 12.35 11.08 9.84 5.09 15.71 1.33 0.11 33.29 33.15 5.91 27.66

ICICI Prudential Balanced - Growth 61.56 03-Nov-1999 588.05 10.31 11.00 8.74 8.97 13.68 1.34 0.12 48.19 18.45 1.97 31.39

HDFC Balanced Fund - Growth 69.08 11-Sep-2000 1156.67 14.51 12.94 6.70 6.87 15.62 1.41 0.03 25.45 41.97 3.77 28.81

Tata Balanced Fund - Plan A - Growth 105.05 08-Oct-1995 602.59 8.19 8.48 5.24 6.83 15.70 1.50 0.02 48.35 25.48 0.72 25.46

FT India Balanced Fund - Growth 57.92 10-Dec-1999 202.27 8.47 5.64 4.80 4.65 13.29 1.51 0.03 57.14 15.35 N.A 27.51

UTI Balanced Fund - Growth 92.63 20-Jan-1995 923.87 10.32 9.62 4.67 2.90 16.01 1.35 0.02 54.41 17.75 2.15 25.69

Birla Sun Life 95 - Growth 363.69 10-Feb-1995 620.20 8.06 6.85 3.62 4.01 20.93 1.46 0.02 55.71 16.36 1.07 26.86

Returns (%) RiskAverage Yield till

Scheme Name NAV Launch AUM Since Std. SharpeMaturity (Days) Maturity

1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.

Tata Dynamic Bond Fund - Plan A - G 18.48 03-Sep-2003 322.29 11.05 0.01 4.23 4.17 9.43 8.43 6.12 39.54 0.08 N.A 8.41

Axis Banking Debt Fund - Growth 1143.95 08-Jun-2012 303.30 9.92 8.94 9.73 8.44 8.61 N.A 8.94 8.11 0.16 102.00 9.06

Templeton India Income Oppor. Fund - G 14.09 11-Dec-2009 3796.63 13.39 9.88 9.56 6.31 8.59 9.32 8.80 16.95 0.08 843.00 10.99

Templeton India Corporate Bond Oppor. Fund - G 12.30 07-Dec-2011 5279.12 12.33 8.96 10.15 6.43 8.57 N.A 10.48 17.79 0.07 971.00 11.20

DSP BlackRock Income Oppor. Fund - Reg - G 19.70 13-May-2003 683.07 12.23 9.11 10.95 7.05 8.15 8.51 6.57 12.16 0.06 575.00 N.A

Reliance RSF - Debt - Growth 16.75 09-Jun-2005 3734.03 12.42 8.51 9.24 6.11 8.05 8.70 6.17 12.43 0.07 726.00 10.20

UTI Income Opportunities Fund - G 10.90 19-Nov-2012 481.79 13.19 8.71 9.00 5.09 7.66 N.A 8.02 18.50 0.03 760.00 N.A

Annualised

Returns (%) Risk Average Yield tillScheme Name NAV Launch AUM Since Std. Sharpe Maturity (Days) Maturity

1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.

Birla Sun Life Short Term Oppor. Fund - Reg - G 20.06 24-Apr-2003 1590.59 13.78 10.03 10.83 7.37 10.18 10.26 6.72 13.99 0.18 N.A 10.38

Sundaram Select Debt - S T A P - Reg - Appreciation 21.48 04-Sep-2002 1432.59 12.77 9.39 8.96 7.19 9.72 11.15 6.98 13.50 0.18 391.00 9.55

Tata Short Term Bond Fund - Plan A - G 23.07 08-Aug-2002 430.81 10.60 7.72 9.17 7.19 9.02 9.03 7.60 12.43 0.13 N.A 9.01

HDFC Short Term Opportunities Fund - G 13.49 25-Jun-2010 2303.53 10.57 8.37 10.21 7.04 8.35 9.25 8.87 13.14 0.08 485.00 9.74

Birla Sun Life Medium Term Plan - Reg - G 14.85 25-Mar-2009 1738.26 13.35 9.71 10.26 7.02 10.29 10.25 8.62 15.11 0.17 N.A 11.02

UTI Short Term Income Fund - Ret - G 21.64 23-Jun-2003 2731.40 13.28 8.62 7.46 7.00 8.65 9.71 7.60 15.02 0.10 974.00 N.A

Morgan Stanley Short Term Bond Fund - Reg - G 14.13 26-May-2009 443.49 9.91 8.03 9.28 6.97 8.87 9.25 7.87 13.32 0.10 533.00 9.21

Annualised

Returns (%) Risk Average Yield tillScheme Name NAV Launch AUM Since Std. Sharpe Maturity (Days) Maturity

1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.

DSP BlackRock Money Manager Fund - Reg - G 1702.76 31-Jul-2006 1894.49 9.87 8.88 9.06 9.67 9.16 8.85 7.43 4.8 0.33 108 N.A

DWS Ultra Short-Term Fund - Growth 20.3 21-Oct-2003 1803.38 9.83 9.07 9.1 9.49 9.19 9.21 7.18 4.26 0.39 40 9.55

Templeton India Ultra SBF - Retail - G 16.04 18-Dec-2007 3622.76 10.52 9.69 9.75 9.36 9.44 9.37 8.13 3.62 0.52 73 9.74

Tata Floater Fund - Plan A - Growth 1882.57 06-Sep-2005 2012.44 9.97 9.2 9.4 9.32 9.36 9.42 7.89 4.23 0.44 N.A 9.14

Birla Sun Life Ultra Short Term Fund - Ret - G 226.51 19-Apr-2002 382.26 9.47 8.16 8.82 9.3 9.31 9.27 7.23 4.45 0.4 N.A 9.64

Birla Sun Life Savings Fund - Ret - G 232.46 27-Nov-2001 4407.6 7.91 7.97 8.92 9.19 9.25 9.22 7.22 4.98 0.35 N.A 9.72

IDFC Ultra Short Term Fund - Reg - G 17.47 17-Jan-2006 1438.41 9.66 9.12 9.5 9.19 9.43 9.73 7.26 4.72 0.41 63 9.34

Annualised

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31st March, 2014